The hottest Markets Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Links 777 Standout productivity. China bottoms out. AIDS deaths & the "Californian Ideology"

Chartbook • 257 implied HN points • 22 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economics Investments Markets Policy Global Trade
  1. Standout productivity has been noted recently, showing impressive performance in various sectors.
  2. China's economy seems to have hit a low point, sparking discussions about its future trajectory.
  3. There are rising concerns over AIDS deaths, connected to the broader cultural ideas around the topic, often referred to as the 'Californian Ideology'.

The Bear Cave #278

The Bear Cave • 466 implied HN points • 15 Jun 25
💼 Business Finance Investing Markets Economics Stocks
  1. A new report revealed that Tenet Healthcare may have received overpayments from Medicare, suggesting possible financial troubles ahead.
  2. Several companies, including Avis Budget Group and Symbotic, are dealing with executive resignations amidst potential SEC investigations, indicating instability.
  3. Activist researchers are raising concerns about various companies, including Groupon and GRAIL, highlighting risks that could impact their future performance.

Top Links 772 Private equity polarizes. South Africa's growth chances dim & the Holy Alliance as "steampunk Terminator".

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 17 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investments Markets Economics Corporate Private Equity
  1. Private equity is causing more division among investors. Some big firms are sticking to traditional methods, while others are trying out new strategies with insurance.
  2. South Africa's chance for economic growth is looking weaker. This raises concerns about the future for jobs and investments in the country.
  3. The topic of the 'Holy Alliance' compares it to a 'steampunk Terminator'. This likely reflects complex interactions between various powers in a rapidly changing world.

American Advantages in Economies of Scale

Erik Examines • 89 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💼 Business Economics Markets Consumer behavior Entrepreneurship Global Trade
  1. The size of America's consumer market helps businesses grow because they can reach a lot of people who can afford to buy their products. A bigger market means they can make more items faster, like how a big factory can produce more than a small workshop.
  2. Cultural similarities in America allow stores and brands to sell the same products across the country without changing much. This makes it easier for companies to run and for consumers to find what they want, no matter where they are.
  3. English, especially American English, is popular around the world. This helps American brands and culture spread more easily, making it a powerful tool for influence and business growth.

Shopping the French Village Markets- a primer.

Kate Hill's Gascon Year Journals • 1638 implied HN points • 11 Oct 24
🍲 Food & Drink Markets Cooking Local Food Cultural Practices Travel
  1. Shopping at French village markets is a fun experience with a variety of fresh, local foods. You'll find everything from fruits and vegetables to meats and cheeses that travel short distances from farms.
  2. It's important to take your time when shopping. Walk around the market first to see what looks good, buy heavier items first, and make sure to have small bills and coins ready.
  3. Being friendly goes a long way at the market. Smile, say hello, and chat with vendors or other shoppers to learn more about the local food and culture.
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Top Links 757 Flipping correlations. Mapping credit scores. Saudi twitter & the secrets of the RG.

Chartbook • 472 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25
💰 Finance Markets Economics Investing Banking Debt
  1. Treasury yields and the value of the dollar are acting differently now, where higher yields are linked to a weaker dollar.
  2. There are interesting tools that help map and understand credit scores, which could be helpful for managing finances.
  3. Saudi Twitter is revealing some hidden information about the region, suggesting social media plays a role in public discourse.

Top Links 756 Tariff-sensitive inflation is on its way. The crisis in the diamond business. The Sound of Music and Caught by the Tides.

Chartbook • 429 implied HN points • 01 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economics Markets Investing Policy Global Trade
  1. Tariff-sensitive inflation is expected to rise soon. This means that prices on certain goods may go up because of changes in tariffs.
  2. The diamond industry is facing a crisis. This could impact the availability and pricing of diamonds in the market.
  3. There are interesting discussions around cultural topics like 'The Sound of Music' and environmental issues like 'Caught by the Tides'. These may provide insights into how culture and nature intersect.

Top Links 754 Exxon's long plateau. Banana economics. Modal magic & the General of Physics.

Chartbook • 457 implied HN points • 30 May 25
💰 Finance Economics Energy Markets Investments Policy
  1. ExxonMobil is not rapidly expanding its fossil fuel production. This suggests a more stable or declining phase for the company rather than aggressive growth.
  2. The content focuses on varied topics like economics and physics, indicating a diverse range of interests and insights.
  3. The support of subscribers is essential for maintaining the platform, highlighting the importance of community in content creation.

Pivotal Tech Company: 50% Drop in Orders

COVID Reason • 237 implied HN points • 16 Oct 24
💼 Business Finance Economics Markets Technology Innovation
  1. ASML, a major company in the semiconductor industry, saw a huge 50% drop in future bookings. This suggests some big challenges in the market right now.
  2. The decline in orders points to larger economic issues that could be affecting many companies. It shows how quickly things can change in the world of tech.
  3. Overall, this situation reveals that the financial landscape can be unpredictable. Companies need to stay alert to these shifts to manage risks properly.

Markets Do the Good Things That Sound Bad

Bet On It • 246 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
💼 Business Economics Markets Policy Management Corporate Governance
  1. Markets often get criticized for being cost-conscious and risk-aware, but these qualities can actually lead to better outcomes for society. It's important to remember that ignoring costs can create bad decisions.
  2. People think businesses focusing on profits are bad, but profit-seeking can sometimes lead to positive results. It's about balancing risks for larger gains rather than taking reckless risks.
  3. Many popular arguments against markets don't see the bigger picture. When looking at overall success and safety, richer countries with fewer regulations often fare better than poorer, heavily regulated ones.

A Quick Q&A on predicting super AI through bond markets with … Trevor Chow

Faster, Please! • 91 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Markets Interest Rates Investment Economics AI
  1. Interest rates might predict the rise of advanced AI. As people expect big changes, they want to spend more now instead of saving for the future.
  2. Higher long-term growth expectations often lead to higher real interest rates. This shows that bond markets can hint at when transformative AI might arrive.
  3. Both positive and negative outcomes of AI can push rates up. Whether AI leads to great progress or poses risks, people behave similarly by wanting to consume now.

The Market's Mirror, Exhibit "A"

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 16 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Markets Economics Stock Trading Financial trends
  1. The stock market might be slowing down soon, which is a concern for investors. It's important to pay attention to popular stocks for signs of this change.
  2. There's a belief that we could be on the brink of a significant market crash that could confuse many investors. Being aware of market behaviors can help prepare for what's next.
  3. Frustration with everyday items could be a sign of larger issues, showing that people are feeling the stress of the current economic situation. This reflects broader feelings about the market right now.

Late-Cycle Investment Theory

European Straits • 49 implied HN points • 06 Jun 25
💼 Business Investment Strategy Economics Markets Capital
  1. We're in a late phase of technological revolution where innovation focuses more on efficiency rather than creating new disruptions. Companies now need to refine their strategies and embed existing technologies into the real world to succeed.
  2. As traditional tech models mature, new strategies will emerge to manage complex global systems, shifting the power dynamics within organizations and industries. It's no longer just about being innovative but being smart about implementation.
  3. Countries like China are emerging as leaders by mastering manufacturing and integrating it with new technologies, especially energy management. This trend suggests that future economic dominance will hinge on industrial capabilities rather than just financial prowess.

Atlas Won’t Shrug

Doomberg • 7754 implied HN points • 20 Feb 24
💰 Finance Energy Commodities Economics Markets Policy
  1. The human need for energy continues to grow despite various historical crises and catastrophes.
  2. Energy is not just an input into the economy but is actually the foundation of the economy itself.
  3. The idea of peak cheap oil being a crisis is challenged, with the belief that humanity would adapt swiftly to any temporary constraints in energy availability.

Measurement Army

Doomberg • 5751 implied HN points • 25 Feb 24
💰 Finance Environmental Investment Regulation Markets Economy
  1. Modern economic systems struggle to account for environmental costs, leading to government interventions and frustrations among capitalists and landowners.
  2. The global focus on carbon emissions has led to the rise of carbon counting professionals, but many argue their value is limited.
  3. A proposal to create Natural Asset Companies (NACs) faced controversy when seeking to put a market price on nature, highlighting potential unintended consequences and opposition.

The Art of Crypto Kayfabe

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 1076 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Cryptocurrency Markets Economy Monetary Policy
  1. The investment world can be likened to a wrestling league where different assets compete for your money. Each asset has its own story or gimmick to attract investors, just like wrestlers have unique personas.
  2. Bitcoin is often seen as a rebellious fighter trying to challenge the dominance of the US dollar, but it also plays a tricky game of pretending to be both a currency and an investment asset. This duality creates confusion about its true value and purpose.
  3. Like wrestling matches, the market can be influenced by emotions and narratives. The way assets are portrayed and the stories built around them affect how people perceive their worth and make investment decisions.

Gold Surpasses $2900 Per Ounce

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 14 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Commodities Markets Economic Trends Monetary Policy
  1. Gold prices hit a new record, surpassing $2,900 per ounce, largely due to economic uncertainty and concerns about inflation. This has made gold an attractive option for many investors.
  2. Trade tensions between the US and China, along with tariffs on steel and aluminum, have pushed global capital towards gold as a safe investment. Countries like China are also building their gold reserves, which supports higher prices.
  3. Despite rising interest rates normally being bad for gold, the current economic landscape and investor fears about inflation are keeping demand strong. Many people see gold as a way to protect their wealth in uncertain times.

The Bear Cave #256

The Bear Cave • 653 implied HN points • 12 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Markets Healthcare Corporate Governance Activism
  1. There are serious concerns about AppLovin's business practices, including alleged money laundering and low-quality apps. Activist reports suggest their recent growth is questionable.
  2. TransMedics Group is facing backlash for alleged unethical practices in organ transportation. Reports indicate they may have refused life-saving procedures due to billing issues.
  3. A number of executives in various companies have resigned recently, showing instability in leadership roles. This includes multiple CFOs and the CEO of Hershey, which may impact company performance.

Understanding Illiquidity

DeFi Education • 759 implied HN points • 03 Apr 24
🔮 Crypto Trading Investing Finance Tokens Markets
  1. Illiquidity can make it hard to quickly sell or buy assets. This means you might struggle to find a buyer or seller when you need one.
  2. Memecoins create buzz because small investments can sometimes lead to huge profits. It attracts traders hoping for quick wins.
  3. The hype around memecoins can distract from more stable investments. It's essential to understand the risks involved before diving in.

Mantic Monday 7/31/23: Room Temperature Superforecaster

Astral Codex Ten • 6056 implied HN points • 01 Aug 23
🕹 Technology Markets Predictions Regulations Cryptocurrency
  1. CFTC's regulation on prediction markets sparks debate about potential rigging of US elections
  2. There is curiosity and activity in predicting the possibility of a room temperature superconductor
  3. PredictIt faces legal challenges but gets a stay of execution, highlighting the complexities in regulating real-money prediction markets

The Houthis, A Disappointing Wage Report, and the Tumbling Yen

Japan Economy Watch • 1098 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
💰 Finance Markets Interest Rates Inflation Economy Wages
  1. The yen has weakened due to external factors like the Houthi attack, impacting Japanese economy and inflation, and market anticipation of interest rate changes. The disappointing wage report for November dampened expectations for a rise in interest rates by the Bank of Japan, leading to a weaker yen.
  2. An accurate model for predicting the yen's strength has a standard error of about 3.4 yen. A sizeable discrepancy between the model's forecast and the actual yen value could either indicate a correction back to expected levels or suggest a long-term trend change.
  3. The growth in nominal wages in Japan has consistently fallen short of the 3% goal needed for sustained inflation. This has influenced market expectations regarding the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions and consequently impacted the yen's valuation.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Markets Sales Inventory Economics
  1. In December, closed home sales saw an 18.1% increase from the previous year, indicating a positive trend in some local markets.
  2. There was a significant jump in active housing inventory, up 27.2% compared to last year, with more homes available for buyers.
  3. New listings also grew by 11.8% year-over-year, but overall levels are still historically low compared to 2019.

December 2024 Inflation

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Investments Markets Inflation Housing
  1. December 2024 saw important updates about inflation. This is something people need to keep an eye on for their finances.
  2. There's a focus on housing data, which is crucial as it can greatly affect the economy and people's living situations.
  3. Subscribing to this housing tracker gives access to ongoing insights. This can help people stay informed about market changes.

The Bear Cave #251

The Bear Cave • 513 implied HN points • 08 Dec 24
💼 Business Finance Markets Investing Corporate Governance Research
  1. There are significant legal troubles for companies like LendingTree, which could face lawsuits costing hundreds of millions of dollars. This could affect their financial stability and future operations.
  2. Recent executive resignations in several companies, including Intel, suggest instability at the management level. Frequent leadership changes can indicate underlying issues within a company.
  3. Research reports from different groups are highlighting possible problems in companies like Serve Robotics and Plug Power. These findings could impact investor confidence and stock prices.

Top Links 615 The great wealth avalanche. Chinese white-collar salary cuts. North Virginia, data centre capital of the world & My Beautiful Laundrette revisited.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 11 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Investment Markets Policy Wealth
  1. There is a significant shift in wealth distribution happening, which is often referred to as a wealth avalanche. This means that a lot of money is moving, impacting people's financial situations.
  2. In China, many white-collar workers are facing salary cuts, which can be tough for them and the economy. This situation can lead to broader economic effects.
  3. North Virginia has become a key hub for data centers, showing how technology and data management are growing in importance. This shift highlights the changing job market and investment opportunities.

Could the USD Hyperinflate?

The Informationist • 1592 implied HN points • 07 May 23
💰 Finance Inflation Markets Currency Investments Assets
  1. Hyperinflation is when a currency loses value rapidly due to extreme inflation.
  2. Some currencies have hyperinflated in the past, like those of Yugoslavia, Zimbabwe, and Hungary.
  3. While there is a chance the USD could hyperinflate, it is likely one of the last currencies to do so and owning hard assets can help protect against hyperinflation.

A Sugar AI High Shrugs Off Bad Market News

Peter Navarro's Taking Back Trump's America • 884 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
💰 Finance Markets Investments Economy Interest Rates Geopolitics
  1. The S&P 500 continues to rise despite bad news like inflation and unemployment.
  2. Big tech billionaires are heavily investing in AI that may impact the job market and lead to technological warfare.
  3. Geopolitical tensions, including the possibility of war in the Middle East, are influencing the market's stability.

Top Links 628 Will IPOs recover? Worrying about France. The chances of a new pandemic & atomic spaghetti.

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Markets Economics IPOs Pandemics
  1. IPOs have been quiet even though US stocks are doing well. This surprises some people.
  2. There's a concern about France and its current issues. People are paying attention to what could happen next.
  3. Discussions about new pandemics and food safety are becoming important. It's a reminder that we need to stay informed and be cautious.

Top Links 607 Uncertainty in energy markets. Nike dashing for cash & the strange absence of the state.

Chartbook • 343 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
💼 Business Finance Markets Economics Corporate Industry
  1. Energy markets are facing a lot of uncertainty right now, making it hard to predict what will happen next. This can affect prices and availability for consumers.
  2. Nike is trying to gather cash quickly, signaling possible financial issues or a need for investment. This could impact their future decisions and strategies.
  3. The government seems to be less involved in addressing current economic challenges, leaving some questions about their role and support during these times.

The cocoa question

Asian Century Stocks • 805 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
💰 Finance Commodities Markets Stocks Economics Supply Chain
  1. Cocoa prices have spiked due to poor crops in West Africa, leading to challenges for chocolate producers.
  2. The tightness in the cocoa market is expected to persist, but historically, markets tend to return to balance within three years.
  3. High cocoa prices impact processors and chocolate manufacturers, who eventually pass on costs to consumers over approximately two years.

Why Technocapitalism is Stronger than DEI

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 2487 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics DEI Markets Labor Unions Government regulations Economic Policies
  1. Anti-woke sentiments can be divided into those focused on discrimination and those on government interference with markets.
  2. Market forces and incentives help maintain safety standards in industries like aviation, outweighing concerns over diversity initiatives.
  3. Regulations unrelated to diversity issues, like arbitrary training standards, can sometimes have more tangible and negative impacts on industries than DEI policies.

How Live Sports Helped Netflix's Stock Surge 400%

Huddle Up • 16 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
💼 Business Investing Finance Markets Economics Consumer Trends
  1. Live sports have become a key factor in Netflix’s success, contributing to a significant increase in its stock price. It seems that people love watching sports, and that keeps them subscribed to streaming services.
  2. The involvement of high-profile investors, like Bill Ackman, in companies can also impact market trends and stock prices. When a big name invests, it often grabs attention.
  3. Streaming platforms are adapting to include live events to attract and retain viewers. This shift highlights the importance of diverse content to engage audiences.