Astral Codex Ten $10 / month

Astral Codex Ten delves into a wide array of subjects, including the scrutinization of conspiracy theories, expert predictions on global catastrophes, the intersection of transgender health issues with genetics, current events, long COVID research, quirky global occurrences, AI in forecasting, and book reviews. It focuses on critical analysis, scientific skepticism, and forecasting accuracy.

Conspiracy Theories Global Catastrophes Transgender Health Current Events Long COVID Quirky Global Occurrences Artificial Intelligence Forecasting Book Reviews

Top posts of the month

And their main takeaways
25672 implied HN points 07 Mar 24
  1. Race is often defined not just by genetics, but by a combination of formative experiences and cultural identity.
  2. The concept of race and identity can have significant implications, such as in cases of cultural appropriation and affirmative action.
  3. Judgments on race and identity can be complex and can have real-life consequences, highlighting the need for balanced considerations in such discussions.
8534 implied HN points 05 Mar 24
  1. The Annual Forecasting Contest on astralcodexten.com involves participants making predictions about various questions, helping to determine if one identifiable genius or aggregated mathematical predictions work best for foreseeing the future.
  2. The winners of the contest were both amateurs and seasoned forecasting veterans, showcasing a mix of skill and luck in predicting outcomes.
  3. Metaculus outperformed prediction markets, superforecasters, and the wisdom of crowds in the contest, suggesting that consistent high performance might be rare but achievable with specific methods like those used by superforecaster Ezra Karger.
7433 implied HN points 29 Feb 24
  1. Blind mathematicians often work in geometry and topology, suggesting unique perceptions.
  2. The Basilica of the Holy House in Italy intriguingly ties angelic folklore with historical architecture.
  3. Starting a journey from Seattle and heading east ends in Russia, the first country reached while traversing the Atlantic Ocean.
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4749 implied HN points 02 Mar 24
  1. Book review contest for 2024 on www.astralcodexten.com. Participants can write reviews between 2,000 and 10,000 words, with no word count requirement. Entries must be submitted through a Google Form by May 5th.
  2. Contest rules emphasize blinding the judging process to ensure fairness. Personal information that could identify participants should not be included in the Google Doc submissions.
  3. Diversity in review topics encouraged through affirmative action. A quarter of finalist slots reserved for books from nontraditional categories like fiction, poetry, or older works.
4336 implied HN points 12 Mar 24
  1. Academic teams are working on fine-tuning AIs for better predictions, competing with the wisdom of crowds.
  2. The use of multiple AI models and aggregating predictions may be as effective as human crowdsourced predictions.
  3. Superforecasters' perspectives on AI risks differ based on the pace of AI advancement, showcasing varied opinions within expert communities.
3166 implied HN points 11 Mar 24
  1. Updates on the 2023 Forecasting Contest were shared, including progress on showing everyone's score, correction on commenter performance, potential prize donation, and interactive analyses by Jordan Breffle.
  2. A comment on race and lived experience sparked discussion on Roma heritage and the challenges faced by different groups, revealing complexities in language and identity.
  3. The Center for Effective Altruism is seeking a new head of communications, offering a significant remote position with a salary up to mid-6-figures.
2821 implied HN points 18 Mar 24
  1. The 2023 Forecasting Contest winners were determined with an ambiguous scoring criteria, resulting in a few surprise winners
  2. The ACX Grants impact market has received 53 proposals, including projects such as growing blood vessels in the lab and a swarm of robotic bees
  3. A Reddit thread discussing an AI-generated reading of a poem from ACX highlights the speculation around AI involvement in online discussions
1858 implied HN points 07 Mar 24
  1. ACX Grants involves an impact market where investors crowdfund grant proposals with potential for big profits if successful.
  2. Only 44 out of approximately 140 qualified participants have signed up for the impact market so far, with a different approach allowing non-accredited investors to participate.
  3. Investing in impact certificates through this system has risks like potential project failure, but also benefits such as tax deductibility.
1858 implied HN points 04 Mar 24
  1. This post is part of a weekly open thread where users can share and discuss various topics.
  2. Manifold Markets is hosting a prediction market conference called Manifest, scheduled for June 7 to 9th, with early bird tickets available at $499.
  3. Jessica Ocean from the PsychCrisis blog has shared interesting insights on Proposition 1 regarding mental health funding in the California primary.