CalculatedRisk Newsletter

The CalculatedRisk Newsletter focuses on in-depth analysis and updates on the real estate market, including housing sales, mortgage rates, housing inventory, credit scores, market dynamics, policy proposals, and economic implications of events like the pandemic on housing. It combines data-driven insights with forecasts and trends.

Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Sales and Inventory Mortgage Rates and Debt Economic Trends Affecting Real Estate Policy and Regulatory Changes Market Forecasts and Predictions

The hottest Substack posts of CalculatedRisk Newsletter

And their main takeaways

Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.88 million in August

9 implied HN points • 22 Sep 21
  1. Existing-home sales decreased to 5.88 million in August.
  2. Sales will be down year-over-year for the remainder of 2021.
  3. Total existing-home sales in the U.S. experienced declines on both month-over-month and year-over-year perspectives.

Housing Starts increased to 1.615 Million Annual Rate in August

9 implied HN points • 21 Sep 21
  1. Housing starts increased to a rate of 1.615 million annually in August.
  2. This is the highest number of multi-family units under construction since 1974.
  3. The rate in August was 3.9% above what was recorded in July and 17.4% higher than August 2020.

Another 5 Local Housing Markets in August

9 implied HN points • 15 Sep 21
  1. Tracking 30 local US housing markets, focusing on inventory like active listings and new listings.
  2. Emphasis on watching inventory this year, particularly active inventory and new listings.
  3. Offering a 7-day free trial to the CalculatedRisk Newsletter for more detailed insights.

Homebuilder Comments in August: “Supply shortages are getting worse."

9 implied HN points • 08 Sep 21
  1. Homebuilders are experiencing worsening supply shortages.
  2. Rick Palacios Jr., the Director of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, provides insights on the housing market on Twitter.
  3. Consider subscribing to CalculatedRisk Newsletter for more detailed analysis.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

1 HN point • 13 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Data on local housing markets in January included comparisons to January 2019 for each market
  2. Closed sales in January reflected contracts signed in November and December, with varying mortgage rates
  3. Inventory, new listings, and closed sales in these local markets showed year-over-year changes, with Florida's market heavily influencing the overall picture
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1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

4 implied HN points • 06 Jan 22
  1. The author tracks 30 local US housing markets
  2. Some markets are states and some are metropolitan areas
  3. Author believes slowing housing market will reflect in inventory

Apartment Vacancy Rate Declined in Q4

4 implied HN points • 05 Jan 22
  1. The apartment vacancy rate declined in Q4 compared to the previous quarter.
  2. The asking rents increased by 11.9% year-over-year.
  3. Reis reported that the apartment vacancy rate was at 4.7% in Q4 2021.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

4 implied HN points • 13 Dec 21
  1. The post discusses the state of local housing markets in November.
  2. New record low inventories are expected in the winter.
  3. The author tracks about 30 different local housing markets in the US.

Conforming Loan Limit Increases to $647,200

4 implied HN points • 30 Nov 21
  1. Conforming loan limit has increased to $647,200
  2. High-cost areas now have a limit of $970,800
  3. FHFA announced new loan limits for mortgages in 2022

Case-Shiller National Index up 19.5% Year-over-year in September

4 implied HN points • 30 Nov 21
  1. Case-Shiller National Index increased by 19.5% year-over-year in September.
  2. Index for Conforming Loan Limit also increased by 18.04% year-over-year.
  3. Month-over-month increase in Case-Shiller was at 1.18%, lower than past 13 months.

Final Look: Local Housing Markets in October

4 implied HN points • 23 Nov 21
  1. The local housing market in October is still strong and shows no sign of slowing down.
  2. The update includes data from Columbus, Miami, and New York among others.
  3. Around 30 local housing markets are being tracked in the US, including states and metropolitan areas.

October California Home Sales

4 implied HN points • 16 Nov 21
  1. California home sales were down 10.4% year over year in October.
  2. Active listings in California decreased by 18.3%.
  3. The California Association of Realtors reports that home prices are stabilizing and low interest rates are providing support.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

4 implied HN points • 09 Nov 21
  1. The post reflects on local housing markets in October
  2. San Diego's housing inventory is currently at a record low
  3. The post tracks about 30 local housing markets in the US

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October

4 implied HN points • 05 Nov 21
  1. Bidding wars for homes are less intense.
  2. Tracking local housing markets in the US.
  3. Important to watch inventory levels for signs of market slowdown.

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in September

4 implied HN points • 18 Oct 21
  1. The post discusses the 4th look at local housing markets in September.
  2. The author is tracking around 30 local housing markets in the US, including states and metropolitan areas.
  3. Important data being monitored includes active inventory and new listings.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in September

4 implied HN points • 13 Oct 21
  1. This post is the third look at local housing markets in September, tracking about 30 markets in the US.
  2. The data focuses on active inventory and new listings, essential for understanding the housing market trends.
  3. Readers can get a 7-day free trial to access the full post archives of the CalculatedRisk Newsletter.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September

4 implied HN points • 06 Oct 21
  1. First look at local housing markets in September
  2. Tracking about 30 local housing markets in the US
  3. Importance of monitoring active inventory and new listings

On Private Lenders Raising the "Conforming Loan Limit"

4 implied HN points • 05 Oct 21
  1. The FHFA will raise the conforming loan limit for 2022 in late November.
  2. The increase will be determined based on the relevant index data released in November.
  3. To access full post archives, subscribe to CalculatedRisk Newsletter for a 7-day free trial.

5 More Local Housing Markets in August

4 implied HN points • 17 Sep 21
  1. Tracking 30 US local housing markets, including states and metro areas, in August.
  2. Monitoring inventory, especially active inventory and new listings, which is crucial this year.
  3. Subscribe to CalculatedRisk Newsletter for updates and access to full post archives.

5 Additional Local Housing Markets in August

4 implied HN points • 13 Sep 21
  1. Author tracks 30 local housing markets in the US, including states and metropolitan areas.
  2. It's important to monitor inventory, especially active inventory and new listings.
  3. Readers can access more detailed information through a 7-day free trial subscription.

4 More Local Housing Markets in August

4 implied HN points • 10 Sep 21
  1. Tracking about 30 local housing markets in the US, including states and metropolitan areas.
  2. Importance of monitoring inventory, especially active inventory and new listings this year.
  3. Get a 7-day free trial to access full post archives of the CalculatedRisk Newsletter.

Expect House Prices to be up 20% YoY in July Report

4 implied HN points • 01 Sep 21
  1. House prices are expected to increase by 20% year-over-year in July.
  2. According to Zillow, the Case-Shiller National index is forecasted to be up 20.1% in July.
  3. Zillow also forecasts a 20.3% increase in the 20-City index.

House Price Battle Royale: Low Inventory vs Affordability

1 HN point • 09 May 23
  1. The impact of rapid mortgage rate increases has similarities to the period of 1978 to 1982, where real house prices declined.
  2. During the early 1980s, nominal house prices declined 6.9% and real prices dropped 17.5%.
  3. Historically low inventory levels have contributed to the resistance of house price declines.

New Home Sales Increase to 708,000 Annual Rate in July

0 implied HN points • 24 Aug 21
  1. New home sales increased to a rate of 708,000 annually in July.
  2. The previous three months' data was revised upwards.
  3. The report was a joint release by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Real Estate Data and Analysis

0 implied HN points • 13 Aug 21
  1. Real Estate Data and Analysis provided by Bill McBride on Substack.
  2. Get insights and updates on housing matters from the CalculatedRisk blog.
  3. Subscribe to the CalculatedRisk Newsletter for a 7-day free trial to access full post archives.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September

0 implied HN points • 08 Oct 21
  1. The post is the second look at local housing markets in September.
  2. The author tracks about 30 local housing markets in the US, with some being states and others metropolitan areas.
  3. Important data includes active inventory and new listings, and the author updates the tables throughout the month as more data is released.

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in October

0 implied HN points • 15 Nov 21
  1. The post is the 4th update on local housing markets in October.
  2. New areas added include Des Moines, Maryland, South Carolina, and Washington, D.C.
  3. There are about 30 local markets being tracked, including states and metropolitan areas.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November

0 implied HN points • 27 Dec 21
  1. The local housing markets in November are showing no signs of slowing down.
  2. Inventory is decreasing sharply in these markets.
  3. Additional data has been added for markets like Charlotte, Columbus, Miami, New York, and Phoenix.

Rents Still Increasing Sharply Year-over-year

0 implied HN points • 07 Jan 22
  1. Rents are still increasing sharply year-over-year
  2. Rent increases are slowing seasonally
  3. Household formation and absorption are important topics

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December

0 implied HN points • 24 Jan 22
  1. Local housing markets show no signs of slowing down
  2. Inventory levels are at record lows
  3. The update includes new data from various states and metropolitan areas

Existing-Home Sales Increased to 6.29 million in September

0 implied HN points • 21 Oct 21
  1. Existing-home sales increased to 6.29 million in September.
  2. Median house price growth decelerated for fourth consecutive month.
  3. Existing-home sales rebounded in September after a previous month's dip.

Forbearance, Delinquencies and Foreclosure

0 implied HN points • 27 Aug 21
  1. The end of the foreclosure moratorium and the expiration of forbearance plans could lead to a surge in foreclosures.
  2. Forbearance means refraining from enforcing mortgage debt.
  3. Delinquency is the failure to make mortgage payments on time.

House Prices Increase Sharply in June

0 implied HN points • 31 Aug 21
  1. House prices increased sharply in June
  2. Both Case-Shiller and Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index were released
  3. The last 11 months have shown strong price increases