The hottest Real Estate Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top World Politics Topics

Why small developers are getting squeezed out of the housing market

Noahpinion • 11588 implied HN points • 02 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Finance Development Affordable Housing Banking
  1. Traditional banks aren't willing to take on the risks associated with financing small real estate development projects due to the complex and risky nature of construction work.
  2. Small developers struggle to access financing from traditional lenders because they lack the track record and financial resources required to secure loans, creating a barrier to entry in the industry.
  3. Institutionalization of real estate development by large firms can lead to a loss of community identity, charm, and personalized building designs, highlighting the importance of supporting small developers in creating unique and vibrant neighborhoods.

The Middleman Economy: Why Realtors Just Took a Big Loss and Homebuyers Might Benefit

BIG by Matt Stoller • 38389 implied HN points • 02 Nov 23
💼 Business Real Estate Antitrust Market Dynamics Legal Actions
  1. A $1.8 billion antitrust decision against the National Association of Realtors for price-fixing could change the housing market.
  2. The high commission structure for real estate agents in the U.S. could lead to changes in how homes are bought and sold.
  3. Private enforcement of antitrust laws is important in challenging monopolistic practices and promoting fair competition in the real estate industry.
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America's Housing Rebound

The Overshoot • 1316 implied HN points • 20 Jan 24
💼 Business Housing Real Estate Construction Mortgage Rates Economic Growth
  1. Despite high mortgage rates, construction and renovation spending in the US housing market have been holding steady or accelerating.
  2. Housing sales and construction are greatly impacted by changes in monetary policy and credit availability.
  3. The rebound in house prices and construction reflects the broader growth and asset price acceleration in the US economy post-pandemic.

❄️🏢 Acheter un immeuble de rapport : tout ce qu’il faut savoir

Snowball • 1100 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Investing Property Management Financial planning Risk management
  1. Buying an income-building property requires thorough preparation and attention to details before making the purchase.
  2. Investing in buildings with multiple rented units can offer advantages like lower price per square meter, increased yield, and centralized management.
  3. When visiting potential properties, it's crucial to ask the right questions to sellers, observe key elements on-site, and gather essential documents for further evaluation.

Updating my priors on missing middle

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 379 implied HN points • 03 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Housing Market Urban Development Supply and Demand
  1. Missing middle housing developments can be more impactful in addressing housing affordability issues than previously thought.
  2. Simply advocating for 'build more' without considering the complexity and various factors at play may not fully address housing supply constraints.
  3. Increasing the construction of 'missing middle' housing units significantly could play a crucial role in normalizing the American housing market and addressing housing shortages.

Peak Office

Workforce Futurist by Andy Spence • 537 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
💼 Business Workforce Trends Real Estate Productivity
  1. Office utilization in the US is only at 21%, half the level before the pandemic, showing a significant shift towards remote and hybrid work.
  2. Despite worker demand for remote jobs, there is a notable shortage of such positions compared to on-site and hybrid roles, potentially leading to workforce dissatisfaction.
  3. The return-to-office mandates are largely driven by the need for US-based employers to optimize investments in commercial property and uphold control over employees, rather than being solely productivity-driven.

Shades of 2008?

The Dollar Endgame • 239 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Banking Market Trends Risk management
  1. The commercial real estate market is facing challenges due to decreased demand for office and retail spaces, leading to increased vacancy rates.
  2. Approximately $1.2 trillion of commercial real estate debt in the US is set to mature within the next two years, posing risks for banks and investors.
  3. There are concerns of a commercial real estate crisis resembling the 2008 financial crisis, with warning signs evident in the US, Europe, and Asia.

Top Links 373 Ordeal by Roses, US bank worries, Gazprom's losses, misfiring missiles & Bismarck's legacy

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
💰 Finance Banks Real Estate Investment
  1. Top Links 373 include the Ordeal by Roses photos, US bank concerns, Gazprom's losses, misfiring missiles, and Bismarck's legacy.
  2. US banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America have seen a decrease in reserves for commercial real estate debt.
  3. This post is available for paid subscribers and includes insights on various topics related to finance and geopolitics.

Crisis in Shanghai

The Dollar Endgame • 339 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
💰 Finance Stock Markets Real Estate Market volatility
  1. Chinese stock markets are collapsing, showing signs of a potential fraud that's causing panic among investors.
  2. The real estate crisis in China is exacerbating the financial turmoil, leading to massive declines in stock market indexes like the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component.
  3. Efforts by Chinese regulators to stabilize the markets, such as injecting funds and clamping down on illegal practices, have so far been ineffective in curbing the crisis.

Highlights From The Comments On Housing Density And Prices

Astral Codex Ten • 4542 implied HN points • 10 May 23
💼 Business Economics Urban planning Housing Market City Development Real Estate
  1. Density is correlated with high prices, but demand, rather than new units, drives prices up.
  2. Long-term, attracting people through desirability is more impactful than building more houses alone.
  3. Building new housing may attract trendy cities, but some cities may have capped trendiness and adding density won't make them more popular.

More color on the inevitable rent boom of the 2010s.

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Home Prices
  1. The clampdown on mortgage lending in 2008 led to unprecedented rent inflation, reinforcing the relationship between home prices, rent ratios, and access to credit.
  2. The natural experiment since 2008 confirmed that cutting off mortgage access lowered price/rent ratios substantially, leading to collapse in construction and significant rent increases. This situation may have reached a point where new homes could be constructed again on a larger scale.
  3. A regressive rise in home prices occurred post-2008 due to a credit shock affecting existing home values and necessitating a rise in land rents to induce new construction. This situation highlights the impact of housing shortages on rent inflation and home values.

Second Thomas Shoal approaching a crisis?; Wang Yi to visit the US; Spy games intensify; Real estate, debt and stock market support; Malaise

Sinocism • 923 implied HN points • 24 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Crisis Real Estate Debt Stock Market
  1. PRC ships rammed Philippine vessels in South China Sea, escalation of crisis at Second Thomas Shoal
  2. Wang Yi visiting US, part of effort to have Xi Jinping attend APEC in San Francisco and meet with Biden
  3. Intensifying spy war between US and China, with recent revelations of alleged US spies and Five Eyes discussing threats from China

Fear of Affordable Housing

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
💼 Business Real Estate Investing Economics Policy Market Analysis
  1. Developers and builders fear the loss in the value of their land investments if political obstructions to construction were lifted.
  2. Rents are unlikely to decline significantly in a whole metropolitan area due to new housing supply - housing demand is inelastic.
  3. Invest carefully in real estate market based on real trends but don't let fears about collapsing rents impact your views on housing justice or macroeconomic trends.

Real Estate - 2 Short Posts 🇨🇦

Deplatformable Newsletter • 216 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
💼 Business Real Estate Social media
  1. Having a sign on your lawn when selling your home can attract potential buyers who may not have seen your listing otherwise.
  2. Be cautious about what you post on social media as a realtor, as inappropriate comments can damage your reputation and career.
  3. Maintain professionalism and sensitivity in all interactions to avoid negative repercussions.

Why Companies are Turning on Remote Work [Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 139 implied HN points • 17 Feb 24
💼 Business Remote work Finance Productivity Real Estate Management
  1. The remote work vs in-person debate is becoming more divisive with many companies now choosing to return to in-person work.
  2. Financial reasons such as increased turnover due to layoffs, real estate investments, and management preferences are driving companies to push for in-person work.
  3. Despite the preference for traditional office culture, studies show remote work can be just as productive, inclusive, and even boost creativity and performance.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 148 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Mortgage Rates Inventory Sales
  1. The 2-part overview offers insights into the current state of the housing market for mid-February 2024, covering aspects like house prices, sales, inventory, mortgage rates, and rents.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 2.8% year-over-year in January 2024, showing a slight increase from the previous year's record low for January, potentially signaling an increase in overall inventory for the market.
  3. It's important to note that December and January are typically the weakest months for new listings, and while new listings are expected to show year-over-year growth in 2024, March data will provide a clearer picture of their proximity to normal levels.

Numlock News: October 24, 2023 • Moon, Scares, Deus Ex Machina

Numlock News • 707 implied HN points • 24 Oct 23
💼 Business Advertising Entertainment Real Estate Social media Research
  1. Author promoted the launch of their new book 'You Are What You Watch' and shared a discount code for purchases.
  2. Jump scares in horror movies have been declining since the mid-2010s, hitting a 20-year low in 2021.
  3. Growth of Korean AI-driven Bible chatbot service used by 20% of Protestant ministers to write sermons.

"The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 19 Mar 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates Real Estate Market Dynamics Homeownership Financial impact
  1. Homeowners with low interest rates might be hesitant to sell due to higher mortgage rates, impacting the overall housing market.
  2. Rising mortgage rates create a 'lock-in effect,' reducing the probability of home sales and affecting affordability.
  3. The lock-in effect contributes to limited housing supply, increases home prices, and restricts mobility, but is expected to fade over time.

A Brief Technical Review of the Alternative Housing Story

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 30 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Economics Housing Market Credit Supply and Demand
  1. Cities like Los Angeles face housing supply issues due to low permit approvals compared to cities like Atlanta and Phoenix.
  2. National housing market statistics can be misleading as there are extreme regional differences.
  3. The myth of a credit bubble causing price bubbles is debunked, with evidence showing price spikes before rise in debt in housing markets.

Trends in Buenos Aires Real Estate

BowTiedMara - Geoarbitrage & Mobility Assets • 157 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Investment Property Management Construction
  1. Average prices for apartments in Buenos Aires vary by neighborhood, with popular areas like Palermo and Recoleta having higher prices.
  2. Neighborhoods in the northern corridor of the city have average prices around $3,000/m2, while other areas like Villa Crespo offer good value below Palermo pricing.
  3. Investing in new developments in Buenos Aires' real estate market can be more attractive due to lower construction costs despite a devaluation in the currency.

Groundly's Ground-Rent Grift

Progress and Poverty • 159 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
💼 Business Real Estate Finance Economy Policy Innovation
  1. Georgists scrutinize speculative investing in land, seeing land rent as unearned income.
  2. Groundly's offer of buying just-the-house and renting the land may seem affordable upfront but comes with hidden costs and responsibilities.
  3. Traditional lenders like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may have challenges financing Groundly-type leasebacks, raising concerns about the viability of the business model.

Hsieh, Moretti, Shiller, and the Rest: Part 2

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 252 implied HN points • 02 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Behavioral Finance
  1. High housing costs are mainly due to long term rise in rent inflation and decline in housing consumption.
  2. The bubble story contradicts the evidence of high housing costs being a result of economic rents, not productivity.
  3. Robert Shiller's analysis overlooks the importance of considering rent inflation in understanding housing market inefficiencies.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 220 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economy
  1. The overview provides a snapshot of the current housing market including sales, prices, inventory, mortgage rates, and rents.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 9.1% year-over-year in December of 2023.
  3. Seasonally, December and January are weaker months for new listings, but it's expected that new listings may be up year-over-year in 2024.