The hottest Real Estate Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top World Politics Topics

July ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool, Early Signs of Homeowner Risk Emerge

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 244 implied HN points • 07 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgage Home Prices Economic Trends Financial risk
  1. Home prices are cooling down, with some areas seeing more significant drops. This could affect homeowners' equity and lead to financial challenges.
  2. Many people are using adjustable-rate mortgages or temporary buydown options to manage monthly payments. While this can help now, it may create issues later when rates increase.
  3. Student loan debts are becoming a bigger problem for homeowners, increasing the risk of them falling behind on mortgage payments. Almost 30% of FHA borrowers also have student loans, and those struggling with student debt are more likely to have mortgage issues.

Reading List 05/24/25

Construction Physics • 7724 implied HN points • 24 May 25
💼 Business Remote work Infrastructure Technology Real Estate Economic Policy
  1. Tulsa is attracting remote workers by offering $10,000 to new residents, which helps local businesses and encourages tech company growth.
  2. A tornado in St. Louis caused massive damage, destroying thousands of buildings and resulting in multiple fatalities due to sirens not sounding.
  3. In Shenzhen, stolen iPhones from around the world are often broken down and sold for parts, highlighting a global issue of theft and recycling.

Economists and Price/Rent Ratios

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economics Market Analysis Investment Housing policy
  1. Most economists think that price/rent ratios should stay the same over time. But actually, changes in rents are what mostly drive these ratios.
  2. A big reason the housing market is often misunderstood is because economists don’t factor in how much access to mortgages has changed since 2008.
  3. Rents have been rising faster than other costs, which affects home prices. This key point is often overlooked, meaning many people are missing out on important trading opportunities.

Why Skyscrapers Became Glass Boxes

Construction Physics • 59712 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
🪑 Design Architecture Urban planning Real Estate Construction Aesthetics
  1. Skyscrapers today are mostly glass boxes because they are cheaper and easier to build. This style lets developers create more usable space while saving on construction costs.
  2. Real estate developers play a huge role in deciding how a skyscraper looks. They focus on what will make money, often opting for simpler designs that meet tenant needs but lack ornamentation.
  3. Our interest in building design shapes what gets built. While many developers prefer beautiful designs, the market often pushes for simpler, more modern aesthetics that make financial sense.

Why Is Homeowners Insurance Getting So Expensive?

Construction Physics • 35493 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
💰 Finance Insurance Economics Real Estate Risk management Climate Impact Homeownership
  1. Homeowners insurance costs have risen a lot over the past years, with a 33% average increase between 2020 and 2023. This has made it tough for many to afford insurance, leading some to rely on state-backed options.
  2. While rising construction costs and home sizes explain part of the increase, climate change and more frequent severe weather events are likely major factors driving up insurance prices further.
  3. Interestingly, even though some types of damage have become less frequent, the cost to repair them has increased, particularly for wind, hail, and water damage, which contribute significantly to higher insurance losses.
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Follow-Up to My Investor Ban Rant

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 295 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Legislation Real Estate Market Analysis Investment Trends
  1. Banning large investors from buying homes might make the housing crisis worse. We really need more homes for rent, and investors are key to that.
  2. Homeowners tend to outbid investors for homes, leading to fewer rentals available. This is driving up rents because there just aren't enough homes to go around.
  3. If lawmakers seriously limit investor ownership, they need to think about how that will affect renters. Fewer rental homes may mean higher rents for everyone.

Accepting proposals - A unique coliving opportunity (Tempe, Arizona)

Supernuclear • 519 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
💼 Business Real Estate Urban planning Community Development Lifestyle
  1. Culdesac Tempe is a car-free community designed for walking and biking. It's the first of its kind in the U.S. and has hundreds of happy residents.
  2. There’s a new opportunity for a group of friends or a community to lease an entire block of apartments there. It's a unique coliving situation with some design flexibility.
  3. The offers are starting at $1400 a month, and groups can get a discount for taking multiple units. It's a chance for creative living arrangements in a cool location.

When Owning a House Is a Fantasy

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1024 implied HN points • 07 Jun 25
🎭️ Culture Real Estate Personal narrative Lifestyle Housing Market Disaster Recovery
  1. Many people dream of owning a home, but for some, like the author, it can feel impossible due to high prices and competition. This dream can turn into a frustrating obsession.
  2. The author thought building a house would be better than buying because of the insane prices for existing homes. However, the complexities of construction proved to be a huge challenge.
  3. The pursuit of a home can sometimes lead to stressful situations and financial worries, making it a journey that can take a toll on mental health.

Projects don't pencil.

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 231 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💼 Business Economics Real Estate Market Trends Finance Investment
  1. When projects don't pencil, it can relate to high costs or other factors, but it doesn't always explain the larger market trends clearly. Builders often focus too narrowly on costs without considering broader economic influences.
  2. There's a constant shift in the number of projects that pencil versus those that don't, depending on market conditions. Just because many projects aren't penciling doesn't mean that new projects won't be started; it can often indicate changing circumstances.
  3. Understanding why projects aren't penciling is complex. Costs, demand, and other factors all play a role, but it's important to avoid oversimplifying the reasons behind these changes.

Homebuilder Earnings

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Investments Economics Market Trends Real Estate
  1. Homebuilder earnings give insights into the health of the housing market. They can show how well builders are doing right now.
  2. Tracking these earnings can help predict future trends in home prices and availability. It’s important for buyers and investors to know what's happening in the market.
  3. Understanding homebuilder performance can help people make better decisions about buying or selling homes. It helps everyone stay informed.

Urban Paradise Lost?: The History of Seoul's Only Planned City

S(ubstack)-Bahn • 301 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
💼 Business Urban planning Real Estate Housing Market Transportation Government Policy
  1. Wirye New Town is a planned city in Seoul that looks great on the outside, with tall buildings and parks, but residents are unhappy due to missing public transport. They have protested and even sued the government over these transportation issues.
  2. Housing prices in Wirye spiked quickly, but now many homeowners feel anxious as prices have dropped significantly. The reliance on real estate for wealth in South Korea adds to their stress during this market instability.
  3. The city’s complex administrative setup creates confusion for residents, as the differing regulations lead to issues with services and community life. This mixed governance makes it hard for residents to get the help they need.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 02 Jul 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Policy Real Estate
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same over the past year. While there have been slight month-to-month increases, overall rent growth has slowed down.
  2. Different sources report varying trends in rents, with some noting recent decreases while others show modest increases. This suggests that the rental market is a bit mixed right now.
  3. Factors like increased supply of rental units and changing immigration policies are affecting rents. These influences may continue to shape the rental landscape throughout the year.

How to buy a duplex (or triplex)

Supernuclear • 579 implied HN points • 07 Oct 24
💼 Business Real Estate Finance Investing Housing Law
  1. Buying a duplex or triplex can save you money compared to single-family homes. They are typically about 30% cheaper per square foot, making them an affordable option for many.
  2. Duplexes offer a blend of private space and the ability to live close to friends. You can enjoy your own area while still maintaining close connections with others.
  3. There are different ways to buy a duplex, each with its own financial and legal considerations. It's important to explore these options to find what works best for your situation.

Reading List 01/18/25

Construction Physics • 11483 implied HN points • 18 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Space Tech Real Estate Infrastructure Transportation
  1. Real estate development plays a big role in how skyscrapers look and are built. There are great books that explain the process and thinking of developers involved in these projects.
  2. Congestion pricing in New York is improving traffic speeds significantly in a short time. People entering the zone are moving faster, helping them save time and frustration during their commutes.
  3. Some homes in Los Angeles survived wildfires due to smart design choices that included careful landscaping and construction techniques. These details can make a big difference in fire-prone areas.

China's Silent Depression: An Unseen Economic Crisis

COVID Reason • 237 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics Debt Globalization Real Estate Crisis
  1. China had a huge economic boom driven by global demand for its products, creating an illusion of strong governance.
  2. The 2008 global crisis revealed China's vulnerabilities, leading to rising debt and a focus on real estate to cope with slowed growth.
  3. Now, China's heavy debt and real estate issues are growing problems, signaling a decline in globalization that previously supported its economy.

In Praise of Slow Motion

Kneeling Bus • 224 implied HN points • 15 Feb 25
🕹 Technology Automotive Market Trends Consumer behavior Real Estate Finance
  1. People are using rental cars for more than just driving, like napping or storing things. This shows a strange need for flexible space that traditional buildings don't meet.
  2. Many people spend a lot of time in parked cars, which might be surprising. It highlights a mismatch between what people need and what's available.
  3. Cheap money in the past allowed tech products to be offered at low prices, but it made basic needs like housing more expensive. This creates a gap between luxuries and essential needs.

January 2025 New Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💼 Business Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Impact Inventory Analysis
  1. Home sales are still slow following the effects of Covid-19. Many people are still hesitant to buy homes right now.
  2. The number of homes for sale is high, which relates to the inventory levels seen in 2008. This suggests a potential oversupply in the market.
  3. The months of supply for homes on the market are also very high, indicating that it may take a while for the market to balance out.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in May; Up 2.2% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 30 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Investment Economic Indicators Data Analysis
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index dropped by 0.23% in May but is still up 2.2% compared to last year. This shows that while prices are currently declining, there has been some growth over the past year.
  2. Florida and Texas are experiencing significant price declines, with 17 out of the 30 cities with the biggest drops located in these states. This trend indicates that real estate markets in these areas are facing challenges.
  3. Overall, 31 states and Washington D.C. have seen house prices fall since their peak. With inventory increasing and low sales, housing price growth may slow down even more in the future.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 01 Jul 25
💰 Finance Housing Mortgage Economics Real Estate Investment
  1. The serious delinquency rates for single-family homes have decreased slightly in May. This shows some improvement from the previous month.
  2. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's delinquency rates are still higher than they were last year, but they are below pre-pandemic levels.
  3. Multi-family delinquency rates are nearing their highest levels since 2011, not counting the pandemic, indicating some stress in that sector.

January 2025 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economic Trends Construction Employment Market Analysis
  1. Residential construction jobs are not increasing much and have been stable. This suggests a slow period for the construction industry.
  2. The number of new construction starts was lower this month, indicating potential challenges ahead for the housing market.
  3. Despite issues in construction, there's a lot of political noise happening, which makes the calm in construction seem strange.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.7% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 26 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators House Prices Inflation
  1. Inflation-adjusted house prices are currently 1.7% below their peak in 2022, meaning they have slightly decreased recently.
  2. When considering the price-to-rent ratio, this is also 8.8% lower than it was at the peak last year, indicating changes in housing affordability.
  3. Overall, while house prices are historically high, they remain about 10.9% above the peak levels from the previous housing bubble.

The Middleman Economy: Why Realtors Just Took a Big Loss and Homebuyers Might Benefit

BIG by Matt Stoller • 38389 implied HN points • 02 Nov 23
💼 Business Real Estate Antitrust Market Dynamics Legal Actions
  1. A $1.8 billion antitrust decision against the National Association of Realtors for price-fixing could change the housing market.
  2. The high commission structure for real estate agents in the U.S. could lead to changes in how homes are bought and sold.
  3. Private enforcement of antitrust laws is important in challenging monopolistic practices and promoting fair competition in the real estate industry.

New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 25 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Housing Data Economic Indicators
  1. New home sales in May 2025 dropped to an annual rate of 623,000, which is lower than previous months and last year.
  2. There is an increase in the supply of new homes available, with nearly 10 months' worth of inventory on the market, which is much higher than normal.
  3. The prices of new homes have decreased, with a 7% drop from the peak, partly due to a change in the types of homes being sold.

How Many Homes Do We Need?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 358 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Policy Market Analysis
  1. There is a huge underestimation of the housing shortage in the U.S. Many professionals are saying we need less housing than we actually do.
  2. Current data shows there are about 15 million vacant homes, but many more are needed due to population growth. Estimates suggest a shortage of at least 15 to 20 million units.
  3. Building more homes can help lower rents and make housing more affordable, but there's a risk that new constructions may only be rented out at higher prices, especially if ownership becomes less accessible.

Credit Where Credit Is Due: Nashville & Charlotte!

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Urban Development Economic Trends Real Estate
  1. Nashville has a unique housing law that helps build affordable starter homes, making it a great place for newcomers. It's important to look at different regions when discussing housing costs.
  2. Charlotte also deserves recognition for managing housing prices better than expected. It's not just the well-known cities that have good housing policies.
  3. Overall, housing costs have risen in Nashville, Charlotte, and Austin over the years, but these cities still have relatively better conditions compared to others. Keeping an eye on varied areas can provide a fuller picture of the housing market.

January 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update and Inflation

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Inflation Economic Trends Market Analysis Real Estate
  1. Home prices changed in the past two decades, with different local and national factors affecting these trends. This means that while prices may rise overall, local conditions can vary greatly.
  2. Recent inflation numbers showed a slight increase, but it's unclear if this is just a temporary change or part of a longer trend. It's important to watch these numbers closely for a clearer picture.
  3. When looking at inflation data, excluding shelter costs gives a better understanding of general price trends, which have generally stayed close to the target rate over time.

Homeownership isn't that risky

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Investments Homeownership Economic Policy Market Trends
  1. Homeownership is often seen as risky, but this idea is misunderstood. Many homes don't actually lose value significantly over time, and the risks are often overstated.
  2. Lower-priced homes can be a good investment, especially for families with lower incomes. The rental income from these homes can outweigh the risks involved.
  3. The financial difficulties in the post-2008 housing market were largely driven by government policies, not the inherent risks of owning a home. For many, owning a home can still be a stable investment over time.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.03 million SAAR in May; Down 0.7% YoY

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 23 Jun 25
💼 Business Real Estate Sales Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. Existing-home sales rose by 0.8% in May compared to April, but they are still down 0.7% from last year. This trend indicates a mixed market performance.
  2. The total housing inventory increased significantly, showing a rise of 20.3% year-over-year. More choices for buyers could ease some pressure on the market.
  3. The months of unsold inventory went up to 4.6 months, which means houses are staying on the market longer. This level is higher than before the pandemic, suggesting a shift in buyer demand.

Why small developers are getting squeezed out of the housing market

Noahpinion • 11588 implied HN points • 02 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Finance Development Affordable Housing Banking
  1. Traditional banks aren't willing to take on the risks associated with financing small real estate development projects due to the complex and risky nature of construction work.
  2. Small developers struggle to access financing from traditional lenders because they lack the track record and financial resources required to secure loans, creating a barrier to entry in the industry.
  3. Institutionalization of real estate development by large firms can lead to a loss of community identity, charm, and personalized building designs, highlighting the importance of supporting small developers in creating unique and vibrant neighborhoods.

Rent trends and multi-family construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis Investment Strategies Housing policy
  1. The rent trends in different cities show that Austin is currently performing the best among metro areas in Texas.
  2. When looking at rental prices, it's important to consider whether changes are due to short-term demand shifts or local supply issues.
  3. The Erdmann Housing Tracker provides insights into multi-family construction, which can help understanding the housing market better.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.256 million Annual Rate in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 18 Jun 25
💰 Finance Housing Economics Real Estate Investment Market Trends
  1. Housing starts in May were lower than expected, at an annual rate of 1.256 million, which shows a decrease from both April and last year.
  2. Single-family housing starts went up slightly, but overall they are down from last year, while multi-family starts are doing better this year.
  3. Building permits also dropped a bit, indicating that new construction might slow down in the coming months.

California Home Sales "Sputter" in May; 4th Look at Local Markets

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 20 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Inventory Analysis Economic Factors
  1. California home sales decreased for the third month in a row, highlighting reduced buyer confidence due to high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty.
  2. Active home inventory reached a 67-month high, with a significant year-over-year increase in available listings, suggesting more choices for buyers.
  3. Despite a minor decline in home prices, the market is still facing challenges, with many areas reporting fewer homes sold compared to previous years.

Expensive Cities Aren't Attractive Cities

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 337 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Urban Policy Housing Market Economic Trends Real Estate
  1. High housing prices in cities don't mean they're great places to live. Instead, these prices often come from not having enough houses.
  2. Cities like Los Angeles are expensive mainly due to people wanting to stay near their families and jobs, even when it gets hard to afford living there.
  3. If cities allowed more housing to be built, they could become more affordable, meaning people wouldn't have to feel forced to leave their homes.

Rising existing inventory in Texas and Florida

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Economics Investment Market Analysis Real Estate
  1. Rising home inventory in places like Texas and Florida doesn't always mean a bad market. It can show real demand or a strong market too.
  2. Many people wrongly believe that too many houses lead to market crashes, but actually, drops in demand usually cause these issues.
  3. In past downturns, like in 2008, price drops happened after demand decreased, not because of oversupply. Understanding this helps make sense of current housing trends.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 11 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Inventory Analysis Economic Indicators
  1. Closed home sales in May decreased by 3.9% compared to last year, which indicates a continuing downward trend in the housing market.
  2. New listings of homes increased by 10.2% year-over-year, but they're still lower than the levels seen in May 2019.
  3. Active inventory is rising significantly, with an increase of 36.9% compared to last year, showing more options for buyers this spring.

Expensive Cities Aren't Attractive Cities: Follow Up

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 273 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Urban Development Economic Inequality Land use Real Estate
  1. Expensive cities are usually not as desirable as people think. They often have high rents and limited growth due to strict building rules.
  2. Increasing the number of homes over time can help lower housing costs, but this process takes years and won't cause quick drops in prices.
  3. Arguments against the YIMBY (Yes In My Backyard) movement often rely on unproven claims. In reality, cities that allow more development can remain affordable and vibrant.

Housing Market Index and Single Family Starts

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 17 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Economic Indicators
  1. Builder sentiment in the housing market is low, reaching one of the lowest levels since 2012. This means builders are feeling less confident about selling new homes.
  2. There has been a noticeable increase in price incentives from builders as the housing market slows down. This suggests they are trying to attract buyers who might be hesitant.
  3. Overall, the housing market is softening, which could impact future construction and development plans.