The hottest Real Estate Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Why Is Homeowners Insurance Getting So Expensive?

Construction Physics • 35493 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
💰 Finance Insurance Economics Real Estate Risk management Climate Impact Homeownership
  1. Homeowners insurance costs have risen a lot over the past years, with a 33% average increase between 2020 and 2023. This has made it tough for many to afford insurance, leading some to rely on state-backed options.
  2. While rising construction costs and home sizes explain part of the increase, climate change and more frequent severe weather events are likely major factors driving up insurance prices further.
  3. Interestingly, even though some types of damage have become less frequent, the cost to repair them has increased, particularly for wind, hail, and water damage, which contribute significantly to higher insurance losses.

Why Skyscrapers Became Glass Boxes

Construction Physics • 59712 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
🪑 Design Architecture Urban planning Real Estate Construction Aesthetics
  1. Skyscrapers today are mostly glass boxes because they are cheaper and easier to build. This style lets developers create more usable space while saving on construction costs.
  2. Real estate developers play a huge role in deciding how a skyscraper looks. They focus on what will make money, often opting for simpler designs that meet tenant needs but lack ornamentation.
  3. Our interest in building design shapes what gets built. While many developers prefer beautiful designs, the market often pushes for simpler, more modern aesthetics that make financial sense.

Reading List 01/18/25

Construction Physics • 11483 implied HN points • 18 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Space Tech Real Estate Infrastructure Transportation
  1. Real estate development plays a big role in how skyscrapers look and are built. There are great books that explain the process and thinking of developers involved in these projects.
  2. Congestion pricing in New York is improving traffic speeds significantly in a short time. People entering the zone are moving faster, helping them save time and frustration during their commutes.
  3. Some homes in Los Angeles survived wildfires due to smart design choices that included careful landscaping and construction techniques. These details can make a big difference in fire-prone areas.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing Market
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index went up by 3.9% over the last year, showing that home prices are generally on the rise again.
  2. Many cities in Florida are experiencing significant price declines, with four of the six cities having the largest drops in home values.
  3. As housing inventory grows and sales remain low, it's expected that the growth in home prices could slow down in 2025.

Economists and Price/Rent Ratios

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economics Market Analysis Investment Housing policy
  1. Most economists think that price/rent ratios should stay the same over time. But actually, changes in rents are what mostly drive these ratios.
  2. A big reason the housing market is often misunderstood is because economists don’t factor in how much access to mortgages has changed since 2008.
  3. Rents have been rising faster than other costs, which affects home prices. This key point is often overlooked, meaning many people are missing out on important trading opportunities.
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Top Links 643 Office vacancies. Peak McDonald's. The case of Ireland and the legend of Ferdinand Piëch.

Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
💼 Business Real Estate Economics Workplace Market Analysis
  1. Office vacancies are at a record high, with about 20.4% of office space in major US cities empty. This shows a big change in how people work now.
  2. The idea of 'Peak McDonald's' suggests that the fast-food giant may have reached its highest point in growth and popularity. It's interesting to think about how even big brands can change over time.
  3. The story of Ferdinand Piëch and the case of Ireland may provide lessons on leadership and innovation in business. These narratives help us understand how organizations can evolve or face challenges.

New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing supply Sales Data
  1. New home sales dropped to an annual rate of 657,000 in January, marking a decline from previous months. This shows a slowdown in the housing market compared to last year.
  2. The average price of new homes has decreased by 5.8% from its highest point due to changes in what types of homes are selling.
  3. There is a high inventory of homes available, with a supply of 9 months, which is more than the usual range of 4 to 6 months. This indicates more choices for buyers but also suggests a slower market.

Follow-Up to My Investor Ban Rant

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 295 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Legislation Real Estate Market Analysis Investment Trends
  1. Banning large investors from buying homes might make the housing crisis worse. We really need more homes for rent, and investors are key to that.
  2. Homeowners tend to outbid investors for homes, leading to fewer rentals available. This is driving up rents because there just aren't enough homes to go around.
  3. If lawmakers seriously limit investor ownership, they need to think about how that will affect renters. Fewer rental homes may mean higher rents for everyone.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 27 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Analysis Housing Affordability
  1. House prices are currently about 1% lower than their peak in 2022 when adjusted for inflation. This means prices are still quite high compared to the past.
  2. The price-to-rent ratio is around 7.7% lower than the 2022 peak. This could mean it's more expensive to buy a house than to rent in some areas.
  3. Real house prices have generally been increasing over time, but it's been a while since they have hit new highs. Experts think prices may stay flat or slightly decline in the near future.

Accepting proposals - A unique coliving opportunity (Tempe, Arizona)

Supernuclear • 519 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
💼 Business Real Estate Urban planning Community Development Lifestyle
  1. Culdesac Tempe is a car-free community designed for walking and biking. It's the first of its kind in the U.S. and has hundreds of happy residents.
  2. There’s a new opportunity for a group of friends or a community to lease an entire block of apartments there. It's a unique coliving situation with some design flexibility.
  3. The offers are starting at $1400 a month, and groups can get a discount for taking multiple units. It's a chance for creative living arrangements in a cool location.

Projects don't pencil.

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 231 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💼 Business Economics Real Estate Market Trends Finance Investment
  1. When projects don't pencil, it can relate to high costs or other factors, but it doesn't always explain the larger market trends clearly. Builders often focus too narrowly on costs without considering broader economic influences.
  2. There's a constant shift in the number of projects that pencil versus those that don't, depending on market conditions. Just because many projects aren't penciling doesn't mean that new projects won't be started; it can often indicate changing circumstances.
  3. Understanding why projects aren't penciling is complex. Costs, demand, and other factors all play a role, but it's important to avoid oversimplifying the reasons behind these changes.

Homebuilder Earnings

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Investments Economics Market Trends Real Estate
  1. Homebuilder earnings give insights into the health of the housing market. They can show how well builders are doing right now.
  2. Tracking these earnings can help predict future trends in home prices and availability. It’s important for buyers and investors to know what's happening in the market.
  3. Understanding homebuilder performance can help people make better decisions about buying or selling homes. It helps everyone stay informed.

How to buy a duplex (or triplex)

Supernuclear • 579 implied HN points • 07 Oct 24
💼 Business Real Estate Finance Investing Housing Law
  1. Buying a duplex or triplex can save you money compared to single-family homes. They are typically about 30% cheaper per square foot, making them an affordable option for many.
  2. Duplexes offer a blend of private space and the ability to live close to friends. You can enjoy your own area while still maintaining close connections with others.
  3. There are different ways to buy a duplex, each with its own financial and legal considerations. It's important to explore these options to find what works best for your situation.

China's Silent Depression: An Unseen Economic Crisis

COVID Reason • 237 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics Debt Globalization Real Estate Crisis
  1. China had a huge economic boom driven by global demand for its products, creating an illusion of strong governance.
  2. The 2008 global crisis revealed China's vulnerabilities, leading to rising debt and a focus on real estate to cope with slowed growth.
  3. Now, China's heavy debt and real estate issues are growing problems, signaling a decline in globalization that previously supported its economy.

In Praise of Slow Motion

Kneeling Bus • 224 implied HN points • 15 Feb 25
🕹 Technology Automotive Market Trends Consumer behavior Real Estate Finance
  1. People are using rental cars for more than just driving, like napping or storing things. This shows a strange need for flexible space that traditional buildings don't meet.
  2. Many people spend a lot of time in parked cars, which might be surprising. It highlights a mismatch between what people need and what's available.
  3. Cheap money in the past allowed tech products to be offered at low prices, but it made basic needs like housing more expensive. This creates a gap between luxuries and essential needs.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. U.S. house prices rose about 4.5% over the past year, showing growth across all regions, but at a slower pace than before. This suggests the market is stabilizing after a period of rapid increases.
  2. The Case-Shiller index indicates that home prices have been increasing month-over-month consistently, with a 0.5% rise recently, even though some cities like San Francisco and Tampa are seeing price declines.
  3. Overall house prices are now higher than they were before the pandemic, but growth is less intense than during peak years, reflecting changes in demand and supply in the housing market.

January 2025 New Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💼 Business Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Impact Inventory Analysis
  1. Home sales are still slow following the effects of Covid-19. Many people are still hesitant to buy homes right now.
  2. The number of homes for sale is high, which relates to the inventory levels seen in 2008. This suggests a potential oversupply in the market.
  3. The months of supply for homes on the market are also very high, indicating that it may take a while for the market to balance out.

California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Investment Market Trends Economic Indicators Real Estate
  1. California home sales fell by 1.9% in January compared to last year. This drop marks the first year-over-year decline in eight months.
  2. The median price for homes in California decreased from December but is still 6.3% higher than a year ago. This shows mixed signs in the housing market.
  3. Inventory of homes for sale increased significantly, up 27.4% year-over-year. More homes are available now, which could change the dynamics of the market.

The Middleman Economy: Why Realtors Just Took a Big Loss and Homebuyers Might Benefit

BIG by Matt Stoller • 38389 implied HN points • 02 Nov 23
💼 Business Real Estate Antitrust Market Dynamics Legal Actions
  1. A $1.8 billion antitrust decision against the National Association of Realtors for price-fixing could change the housing market.
  2. The high commission structure for real estate agents in the U.S. could lead to changes in how homes are bought and sold.
  3. Private enforcement of antitrust laws is important in challenging monopolistic practices and promoting fair competition in the real estate industry.

January 2025 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economic Trends Construction Employment Market Analysis
  1. Residential construction jobs are not increasing much and have been stable. This suggests a slow period for the construction industry.
  2. The number of new construction starts was lower this month, indicating potential challenges ahead for the housing market.
  3. Despite issues in construction, there's a lot of political noise happening, which makes the calm in construction seem strange.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Interest Rates Economic Indicators Home Sales
  1. Existing home sales are predicted to be around 4.09 million for January, showing a slight drop from December but an increase from last year.
  2. The average sale price for homes has risen about 5% compared to a year ago, indicating a continuing trend in increasing home values.
  3. The expected real interest rates have returned to levels similar to before the financial crisis, suggesting a more stable economic outlook.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 57 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Markets Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Indicators
  1. The National Association of Realtors will report on January home sales, which are expected to decrease. People are anticipating a drop from December's sales figures.
  2. In January 2024, home sales were reported at around 4.00 million, showing a trend in sales that people are keeping an eye on.
  3. Data comparisons from January 2019 will also be included, helping to understand how the market has changed over time.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Construction Market Analysis
  1. In January, housing starts dropped to 1.366 million, which is lower than both December's figures and January 2024's. This shows a ongoing decrease in new housing construction.
  2. Single-family home construction decreased by 8.4% compared to December, which indicates a slowdown in this sector. Meanwhile, multi-family units saw a slight increase year-over-year but still faced declines month-over-month.
  3. There were significant differences in regional construction patterns, especially in the Northeast, which experienced a notable drop, likely due to weather conditions.

One Funeral at a Time

MD&A • 453 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💼 Business Real Estate Economics Investing Market Trends Financial Strategies
  1. People often stick to familiar ideas, even if they're wrong, because those ideas feel comfortable. Just like in science, new information can be hard to accept.
  2. Seeing the world differently can lead to better investment opportunities. Those who challenge common beliefs can find hidden chances in the market.
  3. Making simple changes can solve big problems. Just like washing hands helped reduce childbed fever, allowing more housing construction might help lower rising costs.

Steve Cohen Wants To Spend $8 Billion To Transform Citi Field Into An Entertainment District

Huddle Up • 34 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💼 Business Sports Management Real Estate Entertainment Finance Investment
  1. Steve Cohen, the owner of the Mets, plans to spend $8 billion to turn the area around Citi Field into a fun entertainment district.
  2. His vision includes parks, hotels, restaurants, and even a casino, all without using any taxpayer money.
  3. Cohen wants to create a better experience for fans, showcasing his commitment by hosting special fan events and spending heavily on player contracts.

Reading List 11/16/24

Construction Physics • 1043 implied HN points • 16 Nov 24
💼 Business Construction Infrastructure Technology Real Estate Finance
  1. Miami tried to become a new tech hub, but it didn't get much venture capital funding, showing it hasn't really worked out.
  2. Modular construction is growing, especially for fast food restaurants, where buildings can be completed in just 24 hours.
  3. The average homebuyer in the U.S. is now 56 years old, which reflects the aging population in the country.

Why small developers are getting squeezed out of the housing market

Noahpinion • 11588 implied HN points • 02 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Finance Development Affordable Housing Banking
  1. Traditional banks aren't willing to take on the risks associated with financing small real estate development projects due to the complex and risky nature of construction work.
  2. Small developers struggle to access financing from traditional lenders because they lack the track record and financial resources required to secure loans, creating a barrier to entry in the industry.
  3. Institutionalization of real estate development by large firms can lead to a loss of community identity, charm, and personalized building designs, highlighting the importance of supporting small developers in creating unique and vibrant neighborhoods.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Sales trends Economic Indicators Investment
  1. Existing-home sales have decreased to 4.08 million in January, which is a drop of 4.9% from the previous month, but it's still a 2.0% increase compared to January 2024.
  2. The housing inventory is rising, reaching 1.18 million units, up 16.8% from last year, which shows there is more supply available than before the pandemic.
  3. Despite the drop in sales, this is the fourth consecutive month with year-over-year increases, suggesting some positive trends in the market.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Trends Economic Analysis
  1. The report looks at various local housing markets across the US for January. It compares this year's data with data from January 2019.
  2. The analysis includes information about active listings, new listings, and closed sales in these markets.
  3. The newsletter encourages readers to subscribe for more detailed insights and data on the housing markets.

How Many Homes Do We Need?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 358 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Policy Market Analysis
  1. There is a huge underestimation of the housing shortage in the U.S. Many professionals are saying we need less housing than we actually do.
  2. Current data shows there are about 15 million vacant homes, but many more are needed due to population growth. Estimates suggest a shortage of at least 15 to 20 million units.
  3. Building more homes can help lower rents and make housing more affordable, but there's a risk that new constructions may only be rented out at higher prices, especially if ownership becomes less accessible.

Credit Where Credit Is Due: Nashville & Charlotte!

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Urban Development Economic Trends Real Estate
  1. Nashville has a unique housing law that helps build affordable starter homes, making it a great place for newcomers. It's important to look at different regions when discussing housing costs.
  2. Charlotte also deserves recognition for managing housing prices better than expected. It's not just the well-known cities that have good housing policies.
  3. Overall, housing costs have risen in Nashville, Charlotte, and Austin over the years, but these cities still have relatively better conditions compared to others. Keeping an eye on varied areas can provide a fuller picture of the housing market.

January 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update and Inflation

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Inflation Economic Trends Market Analysis Real Estate
  1. Home prices changed in the past two decades, with different local and national factors affecting these trends. This means that while prices may rise overall, local conditions can vary greatly.
  2. Recent inflation numbers showed a slight increase, but it's unclear if this is just a temporary change or part of a longer trend. It's important to watch these numbers closely for a clearer picture.
  3. When looking at inflation data, excluding shelter costs gives a better understanding of general price trends, which have generally stayed close to the target rate over time.

Homeownership isn't that risky

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Investments Homeownership Economic Policy Market Trends
  1. Homeownership is often seen as risky, but this idea is misunderstood. Many homes don't actually lose value significantly over time, and the risks are often overstated.
  2. Lower-priced homes can be a good investment, especially for families with lower incomes. The rental income from these homes can outweigh the risks involved.
  3. The financial difficulties in the post-2008 housing market were largely driven by government policies, not the inherent risks of owning a home. For many, owning a home can still be a stable investment over time.

Rent trends and multi-family construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis Investment Strategies Housing policy
  1. The rent trends in different cities show that Austin is currently performing the best among metro areas in Texas.
  2. When looking at rental prices, it's important to consider whether changes are due to short-term demand shifts or local supply issues.
  3. The Erdmann Housing Tracker provides insights into multi-family construction, which can help understanding the housing market better.

Top Links 572 Tariffs & toys. The Trump non-linearity. A Miami real estate mystery. Keeping the Panama Canal open.

Chartbook • 443 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Tariffs Economics Real Estate Trade Policy
  1. Tariffs can impact holiday shopping by raising prices on various goods. This might make things like toys more expensive for consumers.
  2. There are unique stories, like the mystery surrounding Miami's real estate market, that highlight interesting trends in the economy.
  3. Global issues, such as keeping the Panama Canal open, show how interconnected our world is and why these logistics matter for trade.

ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Lowest calendar year home price growth of any year since 2011”

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgage Economics Market Trends Home Prices Delinquencies
  1. Home price growth was the slowest since 2011, ending the year at just 3.4%. This is significantly lower than the growth rates seen in previous years.
  2. The number of homes for sale increased by 22% in 2024, which is the highest level of inventory since mid-2020. Some markets are even back to pre-pandemic levels.
  3. Mortgage delinquencies have started to rise, especially with FHA and VA loans. This suggests potential issues in mortgage performance could become more prominent in 2025.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Investment Economics Inventory Analysis
  1. New home listings are up 10.8% compared to last year, which is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. Despite this increase, new listings are still lower than they were before the pandemic.
  3. Inventory levels and what happens in March will be crucial in understanding the future of the housing market.

Expensive Cities Aren't Attractive Cities

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 337 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Urban Policy Housing Market Economic Trends Real Estate
  1. High housing prices in cities don't mean they're great places to live. Instead, these prices often come from not having enough houses.
  2. Cities like Los Angeles are expensive mainly due to people wanting to stay near their families and jobs, even when it gets hard to afford living there.
  3. If cities allowed more housing to be built, they could become more affordable, meaning people wouldn't have to feel forced to leave their homes.