The hottest Real Estate Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Top World Politics Topics
Chartbook β€’ 257 implied HN points β€’ 21 Feb 24
  1. Top Links 373 include the Ordeal by Roses photos, US bank concerns, Gazprom's losses, misfiring missiles, and Bismarck's legacy.
  2. US banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America have seen a decrease in reserves for commercial real estate debt.
  3. This post is available for paid subscribers and includes insights on various topics related to finance and geopolitics.
Erdmann Housing Tracker β€’ 126 implied HN points β€’ 22 Feb 24
  1. Developers and builders fear the loss in the value of their land investments if political obstructions to construction were lifted.
  2. Rents are unlikely to decline significantly in a whole metropolitan area due to new housing supply - housing demand is inelastic.
  3. Invest carefully in real estate market based on real trends but don't let fears about collapsing rents impact your views on housing justice or macroeconomic trends.
BIG by Matt Stoller β€’ 38389 implied HN points β€’ 02 Nov 23
  1. A $1.8 billion antitrust decision against the National Association of Realtors for price-fixing could change the housing market.
  2. The high commission structure for real estate agents in the U.S. could lead to changes in how homes are bought and sold.
  3. Private enforcement of antitrust laws is important in challenging monopolistic practices and promoting fair competition in the real estate industry.
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Workforce Futurist by Andy Spence β€’ 537 implied HN points β€’ 12 Feb 24
  1. Office utilization in the US is only at 21%, half the level before the pandemic, showing a significant shift towards remote and hybrid work.
  2. Despite worker demand for remote jobs, there is a notable shortage of such positions compared to on-site and hybrid roles, potentially leading to workforce dissatisfaction.
  3. The return-to-office mandates are largely driven by the need for US-based employers to optimize investments in commercial property and uphold control over employees, rather than being solely productivity-driven.
Erdmann Housing Tracker β€’ 84 implied HN points β€’ 20 Feb 24
  1. The Case-Shiller home price index shows Miami hitting new highs while San Francisco has been declining.
  2. Both San Francisco and Miami have low housing production, with Miami consistently slightly higher in construction than San Francisco.
  3. San Francisco's construction activity seems to be waning, despite expectations for increased housing due to YIMBY wins and new state laws.
The Overshoot β€’ 1316 implied HN points β€’ 20 Jan 24
  1. Despite high mortgage rates, construction and renovation spending in the US housing market have been holding steady or accelerating.
  2. Housing sales and construction are greatly impacted by changes in monetary policy and credit availability.
  3. The rebound in house prices and construction reflects the broader growth and asset price acceleration in the US economy post-pandemic.
Snowball β€’ 1100 implied HN points β€’ 22 Jan 24
  1. Buying an income-building property requires thorough preparation and attention to details before making the purchase.
  2. Investing in buildings with multiple rented units can offer advantages like lower price per square meter, increased yield, and centralized management.
  3. When visiting potential properties, it's crucial to ask the right questions to sellers, observe key elements on-site, and gather essential documents for further evaluation.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter β€’ 47 implied HN points β€’ 19 Feb 24
  1. California home sales were up 5.9% year-over-year in January, marking the first year-over-year sales gain in 31 months.
  2. Active listings in California decreased year-over-year for the 10th month but new listings increased, suggesting some balance in the market.
  3. In January, closed sales in various markets were up 3.0%, showing improvement compared to the previous month, but they are down compared to January 2019 levels.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter β€’ 146 implied HN points β€’ 12 Feb 24
  1. The 2-part overview offers insights into the current state of the housing market for mid-February 2024, covering aspects like house prices, sales, inventory, mortgage rates, and rents.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 2.8% year-over-year in January 2024, showing a slight increase from the previous year's record low for January, potentially signaling an increase in overall inventory for the market.
  3. It's important to note that December and January are typically the weakest months for new listings, and while new listings are expected to show year-over-year growth in 2024, March data will provide a clearer picture of their proximity to normal levels.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter β€’ 23 implied HN points β€’ 20 Feb 24
  1. Invitation Homes focused on boosting occupancy rates in Q4 for peak leasing season, taking an aggressive stance.
  2. Renewal rates for rental properties were pushed lower than expected with renewal rate increases averaging 6.8%.
  3. Despite previous claims of pricing rentals at 'market' levels, recent data suggests that renewal rates have not followed this trend for Invitation Homes.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter β€’ 61 implied HN points β€’ 16 Feb 24
  1. Existing home sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million, showing a 6.3% increase from December and 0.5% from last January.
  2. The estimated 'natural' real rate of interest has shown varying trends, with one measure rising to slightly above 2% for two quarters while another started to move back down.
  3. Economists have noted potential biases in the estimates of the impact of 'other factors' on the 'natural' rate of interest, and some have suggested using TIPS rates as an indicator of market views.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter β€’ 89 implied HN points β€’ 14 Feb 24
  1. The Case-Shiller National Index revealed a year-over-year increase of 5.1% in house prices, with expectations of a more positive change in December.
  2. Different measures like the NAR, ICE, and Freddie Mac also show positive trends in house prices, hitting new all-time highs in December 2024.
  3. This analysis provides insights into the current state of the housing market, offering a glimpse into where it has been, where it is now, and where it might be heading.
Deplatformable Newsletter β€’ 216 implied HN points β€’ 29 Jan 24
  1. Having a sign on your lawn when selling your home can attract potential buyers who may not have seen your listing otherwise.
  2. Be cautious about what you post on social media as a realtor, as inappropriate comments can damage your reputation and career.
  3. Maintain professionalism and sensitivity in all interactions to avoid negative repercussions.
BowTiedMara - Geoarbitrage & Mobility Assets β€’ 157 implied HN points β€’ 01 Feb 24
  1. Average prices for apartments in Buenos Aires vary by neighborhood, with popular areas like Palermo and Recoleta having higher prices.
  2. Neighborhoods in the northern corridor of the city have average prices around $3,000/m2, while other areas like Villa Crespo offer good value below Palermo pricing.
  3. Investing in new developments in Buenos Aires' real estate market can be more attractive due to lower construction costs despite a devaluation in the currency.
Progress and Poverty β€’ 159 implied HN points β€’ 31 Jan 24
  1. Georgists scrutinize speculative investing in land, seeing land rent as unearned income.
  2. Groundly's offer of buying just-the-house and renting the land may seem affordable upfront but comes with hidden costs and responsibilities.
  3. Traditional lenders like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may have challenges financing Groundly-type leasebacks, raising concerns about the viability of the business model.
Erdmann Housing Tracker β€’ 169 implied HN points β€’ 30 Jan 24
  1. Cities like Los Angeles face housing supply issues due to low permit approvals compared to cities like Atlanta and Phoenix.
  2. National housing market statistics can be misleading as there are extreme regional differences.
  3. The myth of a credit bubble causing price bubbles is debunked, with evidence showing price spikes before rise in debt in housing markets.
Modern Value Investing β€’ 39 implied HN points β€’ 11 Feb 24
  1. IWG has a solid legacy business model of providing flexible workspaces and is trading at a great price, making it an attractive investment option.
  2. IWG's Worka segment is a fast-growing and profitable marketplace business, showing solid growth and expected to generate significant revenue.
  3. IWG is transitioning to a capital-light model and aims to become a major player in managed and franchised office space, with significant growth potential in the untapped market of office real estate.
Supernuclear β€’ 137 implied HN points β€’ 24 Jan 24
  1. Case Study: Windhover is a community living project that started with a tiny house and expanded to include multiple dwellings and land.
  2. The founders prioritize hospitality, justice, and community living, leasing out parts of the property to small-scale farmers at subsidized rates.
  3. Transitioning from tiny house living to being landlords brought challenges of responsibility and upkeep, but also opportunities for hosting larger gatherings and accommodating family members.