CalculatedRisk Newsletter

The CalculatedRisk Newsletter focuses on in-depth analysis and updates on the real estate market, including housing sales, mortgage rates, housing inventory, credit scores, market dynamics, policy proposals, and economic implications of events like the pandemic on housing. It combines data-driven insights with forecasts and trends.

Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Sales and Inventory Mortgage Rates and Debt Economic Trends Affecting Real Estate Policy and Regulatory Changes Market Forecasts and Predictions

The hottest Substack posts of CalculatedRisk Newsletter

And their main takeaways

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December

14 implied HN points • 18 Jan 22
  1. Report on California housing market: Sales down 15.7%, Inventory down 24.1% compared to last year
  2. Author tracking 30 local housing markets in US with additional data updates throughout the month
  3. Author believes housing market slowdown will be reflected in inventory levels

Question #9 for 2022: What will happen with house prices in 2022?

14 implied HN points • 30 Dec 21
  1. The post discusses the question of what will happen with house prices in 2022.
  2. There are multiple real estate-related questions on the blog, including inventory, housing credit, and more.
  3. Readers can access the full post archives with a 7-day free trial of the newsletter.

Lawler: More on Investor Purchases of Residential Homes: Pretium

14 implied HN points • 24 Dec 21
  1. Data indicates a surge in investor buying of single-family homes in recent quarters.
  2. Some of the largest increases come from 'large' investors.
  3. Pretium, a private company, has significantly grown its residential home holdings.

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November

14 implied HN points • 17 Dec 21
  1. This post discusses the local housing markets and predicts new low inventories this winter.
  2. The update includes data on various markets like Austin, California, Des Moines, and Minneapolis.
  3. You can subscribe to CalculatedRisk Newsletter for more insights and a 7-day free trial.
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2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

14 implied HN points • 10 Dec 21
  1. This is the second look at local housing markets in November.
  2. The author tracks around 30 housing markets in the US.
  3. The author believes that if the housing market slows down, it will be reflected in inventory.

As Forbearance Ends

14 implied HN points • 06 Dec 21
  1. The majority of borrowers in forbearance will return to current status.
  2. Forbearance means refraining from enforcing mortgage debt.
  3. Delinquency is the failure to make timely mortgage payments.

Four House Price Topics

14 implied HN points • 26 Nov 21
  1. 2022 conforming loan limits will be announced on Tuesday.
  2. Case-Shiller may show a close to 20% year-over-year increase.
  3. House price growth will likely slow if inventories increase.

A Zillow Flip that Flopped

14 implied HN points • 07 Nov 21
  1. The post discusses a Zillow flip that did not go well.
  2. Expenses were not initially factored in so the loss might be less severe than initially thought.
  3. The example provided is a home in La Habra, California listed by Active Realty.

2022 Housing Forecasts: First Look

14 implied HN points • 31 Oct 21
  1. Inventory levels in 2022 will greatly impact housing starts and prices.
  2. Low inventory may lead to more housing starts and price increases.
  3. High inventory could result in fewer starts and less price appreciation.

The Coming Deceleration in House Price Growth

14 implied HN points • 22 Oct 21
  1. House price growth is expected to decelerate
  2. August Case-Shiller National Index will be up about 20% year-over-year
  3. Median house prices were up 13.3% year-over-year in September

'Some prospective buyers took a break'

14 implied HN points • 20 Oct 21
  1. Some prospective buyers took a break from the market recently.
  2. Housing economist Tom Lawler provides early predictions for Existing Home Sales.
  3. Consider subscribing to CalculatedRisk Newsletter for more detailed insights.

Most Housing Units Under Construction Since 1974

14 implied HN points • 19 Oct 21
  1. There are currently the most housing units under construction since 1974.
  2. Housing starts decreased to a 1.555 million annual rate in September.
  3. Single-family housing starts were also impacted in September.

House Prices to National Average Wage Index

14 implied HN points • 14 Oct 21
  1. Follow the house prices to incomes ratio as a key metric.
  2. New data for 2020 wages released recently.
  3. Consider using average total income data carefully due to potential skewing by a few individuals.

Mortgage Rates Increasing

14 implied HN points • 27 Sep 21
  1. Based on historical relationship, 30-year mortgage rates should be around 3.4% currently.
  2. Most prevalent 30-year fixed rate is reported at 3.13% for top tier scenarios.
  3. Mortgage rates are slightly lower than expected according to the report from Mortgage News Daily.

The Home ATM

14 implied HN points • 26 Sep 21
  1. During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity, contributing to the subsequent housing bust.
  2. The borrowed equity was humorously termed the 'Home ATM'.
  3. This borrowing led to many homeowners having negative equity when house prices decreased.

6 Local Housing Markets in August

14 implied HN points • 09 Sep 21
  1. The post discusses 6 local housing markets in August
  2. The author emphasizes the importance of watching inventory, particularly active inventory and new listings
  3. Readers can access more detailed information and data by subscribing to the CalculatedRisk Newsletter

Forbearance Will Not Lead to a Huge Wave of Foreclosures

14 implied HN points • 08 Sep 21
  1. Forbearance during the pandemic is not likely to result in a massive wave of foreclosures.
  2. Due to rising house prices, few borrowers have negative equity, reducing foreclosure risks.
  3. Even though foreclosures may rise from record low levels, most delinquent borrowers could sell their homes as a last resort to avoid foreclosure.

Altos Research: Existing Home Inventory at Record Low

9 implied HN points • 18 Jan 22
  1. Existing home inventory is at a record low
  2. Investor and speculator activity in the housing market should be monitored
  3. Altos Research data shows an increase in median asking price and new listing prices

Mortgage Rates: Moving on Up

9 implied HN points • 12 Jan 22
  1. Refinance activity is expected to slow down due to increasing mortgage rates
  2. The most prevalent 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now at 3.59% for top tier scenarios
  3. Mortgage rates are spiking at a faster pace than before

Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio and Price-to-Median Income in October

9 implied HN points • 29 Dec 21
  1. Real house prices are currently about 10% above the peak of the housing bubble in 2006.
  2. Historically, there has been a trend of real house prices increasing over time.
  3. Consider subscribing to CalculatedRisk Newsletter for more detailed insights on housing market trends.

Case-Shiller National Index up 19.1% Year-over-year in October

9 implied HN points • 28 Dec 21
  1. Case-Shiller National Index increased by 19.1% year-over-year in October
  2. FHFA indicates a slowdown in annual trends over the last four months
  3. Monthly increase in Case-Shiller was 1.03%, still historically high but lower than previous months

5th Look at Local Housing Markets in November

9 implied HN points • 21 Dec 21
  1. This post discusses local housing markets in November.
  2. Around 30 markets in the US are tracked, including states and metropolitan areas.
  3. New data from Boston, Indiana, and Washington, D.C. have been added.

5th Look at Local Housing Markets in October

9 implied HN points • 19 Nov 21
  1. This post discusses the state of local housing markets in October.
  2. No signs of slowing are reported in these housing markets.
  3. The update includes data from various areas like Alabama, Austin, Boston, and more.

Most Housing Units Under Construction Since 1974

9 implied HN points • 17 Nov 21
  1. Most housing units under construction since 1974.
  2. Housing starts decreased to 1.520 million annual rate in October.
  3. Single-family housing starts showed a slight decrease.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

9 implied HN points • 11 Nov 21
  1. This is the third analysis of local housing markets in October.
  2. The update includes data on Albuquerque, Atlanta, Colorado, Houston, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Portland, Sacramento, and Santa Clara.
  3. The author tracks around 30 local housing markets in the US, which include states and metropolitan areas.

Quick Note on Zillow Flop

9 implied HN points • 07 Nov 21
  1. Zillow's loss might not be as bad due to fees they charge when purchasing a house.
  2. Expenses like repairs were left out of the previous calculations.
  3. Consider all costs and fees involved before analyzing a situation like Zillow's flop.

Mortgage Rates Slowly Increasing

9 implied HN points • 29 Oct 21
  1. Mortgage rates are slowly increasing
  2. The Federal Reserve is expected to start reducing asset purchases next week
  3. Upcoming FOMC meeting is important for tapering announcement and guidance on future rate hikes

Lawler: Some Thoughts on Quantitative Easing and Quantitative Tightening

1 HN point • 04 Mar 24
💰 Finance Economics Monetary Policy Interest Rates Market Analysis
  1. Quantitative Tightening (QT) involves reducing the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, but it is not a complete reversal of Quantitative Easing (QE).
  2. QE involved purchasing assets to influence interest rates, like putting pressure on long-term interest rates to stimulate the economy.
  3. The impact of Fed Treasury and MBS purchases has significantly altered the maturity profile of government obligations held by the private sector and influenced interest rates.

Mortgage Rates Highest in 6 Months

9 implied HN points • 11 Oct 21
  1. Mortgage rates are currently at their highest in 6 months.
  2. Refinance activity is expected to slow down.
  3. There is a likelihood for mortgage rates to increase a little more.

As Forbearance Ends

9 implied HN points • 01 Oct 21
  1. Many borrowers are reaching the end of their 18 month forbearance plans.
  2. This will not lead to a huge wave of foreclosures.
  3. Forbearance, delinquencies, and foreclosure have specific definitions in the context of housing.

Existing Homes: Some Regional Differences Appear

9 implied HN points • 23 Sep 21
  1. The data on active inventory and new listings is crucial.
  2. Observing if inventory decreases as usual in winter or rises this year is important.
  3. Regional and local variations in housing markets are interesting to note.