Omnibudsman

Reasoning about global problems with literature reviews, data, and a first-principles approach.

The hottest Substack posts of Omnibudsman

And their main takeaways

Tax the helicopters

97 implied HN points • 25 Feb 23
  1. Helicopter noise in cities is a problem for many people.
  2. The cost of helicopter rides does not account for the negative impact on property values and well-being.
  3. Proposals for a carbon and noise tax on non-essential helicopter flights aim to reduce demand and address the issue.

Are bigger people more likely to win fights?

3 HN points • 12 Feb 23
🎾 Sports MMA
  1. In UFC fights, bigger fighters don't always have an advantage over smaller opponents.
  2. Reach and mass play a role in a fighter's advantage, but smaller fighters can excel in explosive strength and agility.
  3. Training and skill level can offset the benefits of size differences in fights, making matchups more balanced.

What happened to Islamic terrorism?

0 implied HN points • 23 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Terrorism Global Conflict Middle East
  1. Islamic terrorism did not get worse in the West, facing conventional terror attacks instead of catastrophic ones like dirty bombs or biological agents.
  2. Deaths related to Islamic extremism peaked around 2015, with groups like Boko Haram and Al Qaeda causing significant casualties.
  3. The decline of ISIS was due to coalition airstrikes killing fighters, and the decline of terrorism inspired by ISIS in Europe reflected the group's decline.

LLMs, like people, lie without thinking

0 implied HN points • 19 Mar 23
🔬 Science Technology Research Brain Education Society
  1. Large language models, like people, often give incorrect or made-up answers without realizing
  2. Critics argue that advanced LLMs can be untrustworthy, similar to autocomplete suggestions
  3. Humans and LLMs share a tendency to present false information or explanations, showing the challenge of ensuring accuracy in knowledge-based domains
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Taking crime seriously

0 implied HN points • 01 Jul 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Crime Society Policy Solutions Research
  1. In the US, violent crime rates are significantly higher compared to other rich countries, making it a serious issue that needs attention.
  2. Violent crime is a common and traumatic experience in the US, with a high likelihood of victimization over a fifty-year period.
  3. Crime disproportionately affects the poor and marginalized, leading to economic harm, loss of wealth, and hindering growth.