Daily Chartbook

Daily Chartbook is a Substack focusing on economic and market trends through curated charts and insights. It covers aspects of the housing market, consumer behavior, global economic indicators, financial conditions, and sector-specific challenges, providing a broad view of current economic health and future expectations.

Housing Market Trends Consumer Behavior Global Economic Indicators Financial Conditions Sector-Specific Challenges Labor Market Dynamics Trade and Commerce Monetary Policy Impacts

Top posts of the year

And their main takeaways

Daily Chartbook #247

1231 implied HN points • 29 Jul 23
  1. A first-time homebuyer needs to earn $64,500 per year to afford a typical 'starter' home in the U.S., a 13% increase from the previous year.
  2. Household debt service in the U.S. remains low despite higher interest rates.
  3. Countries that have raised policy rates show mostly positive GDP growth and decreasing unemployment rates.

Daily Chartbook #221

1231 implied HN points • 21 Jun 23
  1. The US Housing Market Index rose steadily due to low existing inventory.
  2. Homebuilder sentiment rebounded swiftly over six months, similar to the period post-COVID.
  3. Housing starts and building permits showed significant increases in May.

Daily Chartbook #223

1231 implied HN points • 23 Jun 23
  1. Existing home sales rose in May for the first time since February.
  2. The median selling price of homes has decreased by 3.1% from a year ago.
  3. Monthly mortgage payments have doubled since the beginning of last year, potentially impacting the housing market.

Daily Chartbook #202

1231 implied HN points • 23 May 23
  1. The median U.S. home sale price dropped significantly in April.
  2. New listings of homes have decreased notably from the previous year.
  3. Federal debt is seen as unsustainable based on spending and revenue trends.

Daily Chartbook #220

1205 implied HN points • 17 Jun 23
  1. The gap between hard and soft economic data is the highest in 20 years.
  2. Tighter credit conditions suggest retail sales will continue to weaken.
  3. Consumption at the beginning of June showed notable improvement from the previous month.
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Daily Chartbook #313

1205 implied HN points • 01 Nov 23
  1. Home prices continue to rise, with the largest cities showing significant gains.
  2. House Price Index and Rent Index indicate varied trends in the housing market.
  3. Employment Cost Index, Consumer Confidence, and Central Bank actions reflect economic shifts.

Daily Chartbook #282

1205 implied HN points • 19 Sep 23
  1. US homebuilder sentiment at lowest since April based on NAHB report
  2. US labor market showing signs of cooling down
  3. Divergent GDP estimates between Atlanta Fed and St. Louis Fed

Daily Chartbook #227

1205 implied HN points • 29 Jun 23
  1. Mortgage applications increased for the 3rd consecutive week despite rising rates.
  2. Freight rates from China to the US coasts are close to their April lows.
  3. The US trade balance showed improvements with a smaller goods deficit compared to estimates.

Daily Chartbook #237

1205 implied HN points • 15 Jul 23
  1. US tax receipts tumbling indicates a deep recession
  2. Import prices falling significantly, biggest decline since 2020
  3. National office vacancy rate expected to rise while market rents trend lower

Daily Chartbook #217

1179 implied HN points • 14 Jun 23
  1. Small business optimism index increased, with 'hard' components outperforming 'soft' components.
  2. Plans to raise selling prices rose while inflation concerns among small businesses also increased.
  3. Sentiment levels among FMS investors improved slightly but are still historically low.

Daily Chartbook #211

1179 implied HN points • 06 Jun 23
  1. Global freight rates are lower than in 2020
  2. Households still have excess savings, boosting consumer spending
  3. Fed has historical trends for cutting rates based on CPI and unemployment levels

Daily Chartbook #309

1179 implied HN points • 26 Oct 23
  1. Mortgage rates reached the highest point in over 20 years at 8.04%.
  2. Everyone except Millennials locked in lower 3% mortgage rates.
  3. Mortgage demand is on the decline.

Daily Chartbook #249

1179 implied HN points • 02 Aug 23
  1. Logistics Managers' Index fell for 3rd consecutive month, hitting 5th straight all-time low.
  2. Global growth outlook shows more upgrades than downgrades in 12m rolling expectations.
  3. Financial conditions eased as US Financial Conditions Index dropped over the last week.

Daily Chartbook #215

1179 implied HN points • 10 Jun 23
  1. Rent prices in the U.S. have dropped the most since March 2020.
  2. Younger generations like Gen Z and Millennials are facing higher rent and mortgage payments.
  3. Global food inflation is easing, with the UN World Food Price Index falling to its lowest since 2021.

Daily Chartbook #204

1179 implied HN points • 25 May 23
  1. Mortgage demand has increased and home purchase applications have fallen.
  2. Supply chain metrics are below average with some exceptions like consumer inflation expectations.
  3. Shipping rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles have seen significant fluctuations from 2020 to 2021.

Daily Chartbook #307

1179 implied HN points • 24 Oct 23
  1. The cost of buying a home versus renting is at its most extreme since 1996, with new mortgage payments 52% higher than average apartment rent.
  2. Home purchases are falling through at the highest rate in nearly a year.
  3. Companies globally accelerated price increases this month.

Daily Chartbook #304

1152 implied HN points • 19 Oct 23
  1. Mortgage demand is historically weak, hitting lowest levels in decades.
  2. Mortgage rates on 30-year fixed mortgages have reached 8%, the highest since 2000.
  3. Building permits beat expectations, but housing starts saw a smaller than expected rise.

Daily Chartbook #200

1152 implied HN points • 19 May 23
  1. Existing home sales are down, with a 3.4% drop in April.
  2. The median sales price of existing homes in the US has decreased by 1.7% over the last year.
  3. Global GDP growth forecasts show growth for most major economies except the UK.

Daily Chartbook #253

1152 implied HN points • 08 Aug 23
  1. Shelter inflation is expected to slow and potentially turn negative by mid-2024.
  2. Supply chain indices are rebounding, dashing deflation hopes.
  3. Wholesale used-vehicle prices dropped 1.6% in July and are 11.6% lower year-over-year.

Daily Chartbook #209

1126 implied HN points • 02 Jun 23
  1. Real estate investors are facing challenges with significant drops in investor home purchases
  2. The number of problem banks has increased, leading to concerns about the banking sector
  3. Credit card delinquencies are rising and approaching levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis

Daily Chartbook #208

1126 implied HN points • 01 Jun 23
  1. Mortgage demand is decreasing due to the rising contract rate on 30-year fixed mortgages.
  2. Rent prices are on the rise, both monthly and yearly.
  3. Banks are lending less money compared to property value in commercial mortgages.

Daily Chartbook #331

1126 implied HN points • 29 Nov 23
  1. Home prices rose for 7th straight month in September.
  2. Retail sales jumped 6.3% YoY in the week ending Nov 25.
  3. Financial conditions eased due to higher equity prices and lower credit spreads.

Daily Chartbook #240

1126 implied HN points • 20 Jul 23
  1. Housing starts were slightly better than expected but building permits weaker.
  2. Single-family building permits rose, indicating a temporary drop in starts.
  3. Total distressed corporate debt exceeds $590 billion.

Daily Chartbook #229

1126 implied HN points • 01 Jul 23
  1. CFO optimism shifted slightly lower this quarter
  2. Corporate profits fell for the third consecutive quarter
  3. Headline PCE rose by 0.1% to 3.8% YoY

Daily Chartbook #225

1126 implied HN points • 27 Jun 23
  1. US household debt service payments are still below pre-pandemic levels.
  2. Consumers have an average savings reserve of 4.4 months.
  3. The probability of recession in the United States hits 100% for Q42023/Q12024.

Daily Chartbook #224

1126 implied HN points • 24 Jun 23
  1. Stockpiling drove supply chain stress and goods inflation; now facing goods deflation.
  2. Demand-driven inflation needs higher rates for demand destruction from the Fed.
  3. Leading Indicators suggest a recession with monthly data contributing.

Daily Chartbook #311

1100 implied HN points • 28 Oct 23
  1. Tighter credit conditions for small companies could lead to lower employment growth.
  2. Deutsche Bank's models show a higher neutral rate known as R-Star.
  3. Market expectations about Federal Reserve actions often prove to be inaccurate in the long term.

Daily Chartbook #274

1100 implied HN points • 07 Sep 23
  1. Mortgage demand has dropped for the 6th time in 7 weeks.
  2. There is upward pressure on US rates due to $7.6 trillion in maturing US government bonds.
  3. Credit management survey shows bankruptcies increased by 2.1 and stand at 50.2.

Daily Chartbook #218

1100 implied HN points • 15 Jun 23
  1. Mortgage demand increased with MBA applications up for the first time in 5 weeks.
  2. Tender rejections in the trucking industry have implications for market conditions and capacity.
  3. US household debt is growing at a slower rate due to higher credit costs and limited credit availability.

Daily Chartbook #226

1100 implied HN points • 28 Jun 23
  1. Case-Shiller national home price index improved in April.
  2. U.S. home prices are rising again on a six-month basis.
  3. FHFA House Price Index reported consecutive gains for 4 months.

Daily Chartbook #246

1074 implied HN points • 28 Jul 23
  1. The typical U.S. home price rose 2.6% from last year.
  2. Active listings dropped by 16.9% from a year ago.
  3. U.S. rents are 0.7% lower than a year ago, the biggest decline since January 2021.

Daily Chartbook #219

1074 implied HN points • 16 Jun 23
  1. Global financial conditions suggest continued easing.
  2. Jobless claims remain at high levels.
  3. Retail sales saw unexpected increases in certain sectors.

Daily Chartbook #228

1048 implied HN points • 30 Jun 23
  1. Pending home sales fell by 2.7% in May for the third consecutive month.
  2. New listings of homes for sale saw a significant 26.5% year-over-year decline.
  3. Active listings dropped by 11% from the previous year, the largest decline since April 2022.

Housing Snapshot

1048 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Mortgage Rates Housing Affordability
  1. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has increased for 4 weeks in a row, reaching 6.94%.
  2. Mortgage delinquencies rose for the second straight quarter across all product types, with an increase in new loans entering delinquency.
  3. Nearly 40% of US homes do not have a mortgage, showing a substantial portion of homeowners are mortgage-free.

Daily Chartbook #308

1021 implied HN points • 25 Oct 23
  1. The ATA Truck Tonnage Index dropped 1.1% in September.
  2. The latest S&P Global Flash US PMIs showed growth in private sector output.
  3. The US is the only region not in contraction according to Global PMIs.

Daily Chartbook #231

1021 implied HN points • 07 Jul 23
  1. Mortgage demand dipped last week for the first time since June 2.
  2. US vehicle sales increased by 20.2% year-over-year in June.
  3. Card spending per household saw a 0.4% year-over-year decrease in the week ending July 1.

Daily Chartbook #239

995 implied HN points • 19 Jul 23
  1. Homebuilder confidence is increasing steadily.
  2. Commercial real estate prices are expected to decline considerably.
  3. Supply chain issues are impacting East Coast ports, causing congestion.

Cheatsheet

969 implied HN points • 30 Sep 23
  1. The post includes updated information about the S&P 500 forward 12-month P/E ratio
  2. Sector-level forward 12-month P/E ratios are discussed in the post
  3. Current valuation metrics, historical averages, and analyst ratings are provided in the post

Price Drop!

655 implied HN points • 29 Oct 23
  1. Prices were reduced for subscriptions to Daily Chartbook.
  2. Launch promo offers an additional 10% off the reduced annual rate.
  3. Subscription includes 3 months of Koyfin Plus and 20% off Koyfin plans if you subscribe by November 30.

Reminder: Pledge Your Support

602 implied HN points • 25 Oct 23
  1. Daily Chartbook will require a paid subscription starting November 1.
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