The hottest Housing Market Substack posts right now

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Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing Market
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index went up by 3.9% over the last year, showing that home prices are generally on the rise again.
  2. Many cities in Florida are experiencing significant price declines, with four of the six cities having the largest drops in home values.
  3. As housing inventory grows and sales remain low, it's expected that the growth in home prices could slow down in 2025.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. U.S. house prices rose about 4.5% over the past year, showing growth across all regions, but at a slower pace than before. This suggests the market is stabilizing after a period of rapid increases.
  2. The Case-Shiller index indicates that home prices have been increasing month-over-month consistently, with a 0.5% rise recently, even though some cities like San Francisco and Tampa are seeing price declines.
  3. Overall house prices are now higher than they were before the pandemic, but growth is less intense than during peak years, reflecting changes in demand and supply in the housing market.

US Homeowners Hit New All-Time High Of $35 Trillion In Home Equity

The Pomp Letter • 339 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Impact Consumer spending
  1. US homeowners now have a record $35 trillion in home equity, which shows how much their homes are worth compared to what they owe on mortgages.
  2. The increase in home equity is mainly due to a housing boom during the pandemic, where demand surged while mortgage rates were low, pushing home prices higher.
  3. This huge amount of equity might lead homeowners to use home equity loans and second mortgages instead of selling their homes, especially since many have low mortgage rates.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Construction Market Analysis
  1. In January, housing starts dropped to 1.366 million, which is lower than both December's figures and January 2024's. This shows a ongoing decrease in new housing construction.
  2. Single-family home construction decreased by 8.4% compared to December, which indicates a slowdown in this sector. Meanwhile, multi-family units saw a slight increase year-over-year but still faced declines month-over-month.
  3. There were significant differences in regional construction patterns, especially in the Northeast, which experienced a notable drop, likely due to weather conditions.
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Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Economics Federal Reserve Housing Market
  1. The current monetary policy is not tight enough to be called restrictive. This means people can still borrow money relatively easily.
  2. Tom Lawler has discussed the 'Neutral' rate of interest a lot. Understanding this rate helps us know how the economy might react to changes in interest rates.
  3. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell suggest that the interest rate environment is still being evaluated, which could affect future economic policies.

How Many Homes Do We Need?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 358 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Policy Market Analysis
  1. There is a huge underestimation of the housing shortage in the U.S. Many professionals are saying we need less housing than we actually do.
  2. Current data shows there are about 15 million vacant homes, but many more are needed due to population growth. Estimates suggest a shortage of at least 15 to 20 million units.
  3. Building more homes can help lower rents and make housing more affordable, but there's a risk that new constructions may only be rented out at higher prices, especially if ownership becomes less accessible.

RealPage, Collusion, and Rents: Part 4

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 231 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Housing Market Regulatory issues Market Competition Political Commentary
  1. The software used by landlords to set rents has been blamed for rising rental costs. However, it's only responsible for a small fraction of the rent increases compared to other factors like low housing supply.
  2. Many cities are reacting to rising rents by trying to legislate against the software, even though it has a low market share in the most expensive areas. This means other bigger issues are being ignored.
  3. People need to reassess their economic beliefs and focus on more significant causes of high rents, rather than getting fixated on algorithms and large corporations, which may not be the main problem.

Expensive Cities Aren't Attractive Cities

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 337 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Urban Policy Housing Market Economic Trends Real Estate
  1. High housing prices in cities don't mean they're great places to live. Instead, these prices often come from not having enough houses.
  2. Cities like Los Angeles are expensive mainly due to people wanting to stay near their families and jobs, even when it gets hard to afford living there.
  3. If cities allowed more housing to be built, they could become more affordable, meaning people wouldn't have to feel forced to leave their homes.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Investments Mortgage Rates Economic Trends
  1. House prices are on the rise, with the Case-Shiller National Index showing a year-over-year increase of about 3.8% in November. This trend seems to be continuing into December as well.
  2. The month-over-month changes show that house prices have increased 0.44%, which means house prices have been consistently going up for 22 consecutive months.
  3. Looking ahead, there’s speculation about what will happen with house prices in 2025, indicating that trends in housing are important for future planning.

Rising existing inventory in Texas and Florida

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Economics Investment Market Analysis Real Estate
  1. Rising home inventory in places like Texas and Florida doesn't always mean a bad market. It can show real demand or a strong market too.
  2. Many people wrongly believe that too many houses lead to market crashes, but actually, drops in demand usually cause these issues.
  3. In past downturns, like in 2008, price drops happened after demand decreased, not because of oversupply. Understanding this helps make sense of current housing trends.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Indicators Market Analysis
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same compared to last year. Recently, there's been a slight downward trend, but rents are still high compared to earlier years.
  2. The number of available rental units is increasing, leading to more options for renters. This rise in supply is helping to keep rents stable and pressures on affordability.
  3. Single-family rent growth is at its lowest in over 14 years. Even though rent increases are slowing, demand for rentals is expected to remain strong due to job and wage growth.

Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 129 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Debt Economic Trends Real Estate Mortgage
  1. There won't be a big drop in home prices because most people aren't selling under distress like before. Homeowners are in a better position now with more equity and low-rate mortgages.
  2. Mortgage debt is increasing, but not alarmingly. The current lending standards are stricter than during past bubbles, so it's less risky.
  3. Many new mortgages are going to borrowers with strong credit scores. This means that lending practices are healthy and borrowers are more qualified.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis Investment Housing Market
  1. The Case-Shiller National House Price Index increased by 3.8% year-over-year in November, indicating rising home prices. This is a good sign for homeowners as it shows property values are generally going up.
  2. House prices rose by 0.3% in November according to the FHFA index, showing a slower growth rate compared to previous years. It suggests that higher mortgage rates might be affecting buyers' demand.
  3. New York had the highest annual home price increase at 7.3%, while Tampa saw a decline of 0.4%. Different regions are experiencing varying trends in home price changes.

Top Links 544 The US housing market is stuck. The "dim Sum death cross". How young women are overtaking men & brands are triggering cognitive dissonance.

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing Market Economic Trends Social Issues Demographics Cognitive dissonance
  1. The US housing market is currently not moving, which means buying or selling homes is very slow right now.
  2. Young women are becoming more successful than men in many areas, changing the usual dynamics in society.
  3. Brands are creating confusion for people, leading them to think differently about their products and values.

Erdmann Housing Tracker 2024 in Review (July to December)

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💼 Business Housing Market Investment strategy Economic Policy Real Estate Market Analysis
  1. Rising rents are the main cause behind increasing home price-to-rent ratios. This happens when supply is restricted, leading to higher land rents that inflate home values.
  2. Cities with high costs usually face housing shortages because of strict building regulations. They aren't necessarily more desirable but are limited in housing availability.
  3. The mortgage market has changed, favoring higher credit score borrowers, which has reduced access for many potential homeowners. This has led to inflated home prices and keeps housing out of reach for lower-income families.

Personal update, and it's all happy

Disaffected Newsletter • 2957 implied HN points • 22 Aug 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Personal Stories Societal Issues Community support Housing Market
  1. The author faced many challenges, including losing a long-term job and dealing with the aftermath of a flood without insurance. It was a tough time for them.
  2. Things are looking up now, as they sold their house for a good price and found a new living situation that will lower their expenses.
  3. The author is grateful for the support they've received and feels connected to readers who share similar perspectives, making their journey a bit easier.

21 Century Housing Summary, Missouri Edition

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Market Analysis Policy Impact
  1. Housing prices in Missouri increased from the late 1990s to mid-2000s, but not necessarily because of a bubble. Instead, they align more with normal price patterns over a long period.
  2. There was a lending boom that raised home prices, mostly due to easier access to credit. However, this did not lead to a big increase in homeownership in Missouri.
  3. After the market crash post-2008, home construction dropped significantly, causing a supply shortage which has kept rents and housing prices high, particularly in lower-tier markets.

Erdmann Housing Tracker, 2024 in Review (January to June)

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Investment Strategies Market Analysis Economic Policy Real Estate
  1. High housing costs are mainly due to a lack of supply rather than too much demand. Cities are struggling to provide enough homes for their growing populations.
  2. Homeownership continues to decline because of demographic shifts and a severe housing shortage. Many people are forced to share living spaces instead of owning their own homes.
  3. There is a belief that adding more housing will lead to lower prices, but it often results in the opposite effect. More housing can create a sense of instability in the market, making things feel worse for current residents.

The Perverse Incentives Depreciating Your House

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 22 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Policy Consumer behavior Investment Strategies
  1. Home prices are rising fast, making it hard for many people to think they'll ever own one. It's more of a struggle for the average person to afford a home nowadays.
  2. Builders often focus on making homes quickly and cheaply instead of making them durable and long-lasting. This means new homes might not hold their value as well as older ones.
  3. Homebuyers are not paying as much attention to quality. They’re more interested in lower prices, which can lead to issues later as newer homes may need repairs sooner.

Case-Shiller and Filtering

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Inflation Supply and Demand
  1. The Case-Shiller index, which tracks home prices, historically suggested a housing bubble. However, it may actually reflect a housing shortage rather than a bubble bursting.
  2. When adjusting home prices for inflation using rent instead of general CPI, the index shows that home prices are still significantly elevated due to high rents driving prices up.
  3. Today's housing market struggles with a lack of new homes, leading to increased prices for existing homes. This lack of building capacity has made it harder for younger generations to have the same homeownership opportunities as their grandparents.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Mortgages Economic Trends Credit Risk
  1. Single-family serious delinquency rates for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have increased slightly in December, indicating more homeowners are struggling to keep up with mortgage payments.
  2. Fannie Mae's delinquency rate rose to 0.56% while Freddie Mac's went up to 0.59%, both of which are still lower than pre-pandemic levels.
  3. Older loans from before 2009 show higher serious delinquency, whereas more recent loans are performing better, but there are still some lingering issues from past housing bubble years.

When we lost our minds: Pt. 3 The Dog that Didn’t Bark - Retirement Homes

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Real Estate
  1. Housing prices in different neighborhoods react differently to economic changes. In Atlanta, for instance, while the economy was severely impacted, the wealthy neighborhoods faced less of a decline compared to lower-income areas.
  2. Retirement communities usually rely less on credit markets, as many buyers pay in cash. This makes them interesting places to study housing trends and market responses to economic events.
  3. Local housing supply issues can drive prices up across all neighborhoods, not just low-income ones. When there's not enough housing built, even retirement homes can see rising costs.

Follow-Up: Mortgages by Credit Score

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
💰 Finance Mortgages Credit Scores Housing Market
  1. The average down payment for mortgages has stayed about the same since 1996, showing that lending standards haven’t changed as much as some people think.
  2. Home values and lending practices dramatically shifted between 2007 and 2009, leading to a decline in the quality of new mortgages, which affected the overall housing market.
  3. The decline in home values wasn't just a sudden crisis but a long-term issue influenced by lending practices and market perceptions, resulting in many areas experiencing just steady downturns without previous booms.

FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 57 implied HN points • 27 Dec 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates Real Estate Credit Scores Economic Trends Housing Market
  1. Current mortgage rates remain high, especially above 6%, making it hard for homeowners to sell and buy new homes. Most people with lower rates don't want to move because their payments would go up.
  2. More than half of all outstanding loans are now under 4%, showing how many people got favorable rates during the pandemic. This is a big reason why available homes for sale are currently low.
  3. Market sentiment is hesitant, with many potential buyers waiting for mortgage rates to drop into the 5% range before they consider purchasing a home.

Builder Incentives and Profits

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Investment Strategies Economic Trends
  1. Builders like Lennar are using cash discounts to sell homes, which can create a misleading price for buyers. Buyers may end up paying more due to high 'menu prices' even if they think they are getting a good deal.
  2. There are risks for mortgaged buyers when home prices fall. They might be stuck with a mortgage amount that is higher than the real value of their home, leading to losses or foreclosure situations.
  3. Unlike in past housing crises, current market conditions have regulators and the Federal Reserve focused on avoiding a housing crash. The situation today is more stable, reducing the chances of a major crisis like in 2008.

Highlights From The Comments On Housing Density And Prices

Astral Codex Ten • 4542 implied HN points • 10 May 23
💼 Business Economics Urban planning Housing Market City Development Real Estate
  1. Density is correlated with high prices, but demand, rather than new units, drives prices up.
  2. Long-term, attracting people through desirability is more impactful than building more houses alone.
  3. Building new housing may attract trendy cities, but some cities may have capped trendiness and adding density won't make them more popular.

Housing Snapshot

Daily Chartbook • 1048 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Mortgage Rates Housing Affordability
  1. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has increased for 4 weeks in a row, reaching 6.94%.
  2. Mortgage delinquencies rose for the second straight quarter across all product types, with an increase in new loans entering delinquency.
  3. Nearly 40% of US homes do not have a mortgage, showing a substantial portion of homeowners are mortgage-free.

Renters and the mortgage crackdown aftermath

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Mortgages Economic Trends
  1. Renters suffered a lot from stricter mortgage rules after 2008. Many renters ended up paying more due to fewer homes being built.
  2. There is a big difference in rent prices between rental apartments and owned homes. Renters often find they're spending more for less quality compared to homeowners.
  3. To fix these problems, we need either a lot more new rental buildings or easier access to mortgages for families. If not, many will keep struggling in high-priced rental markets.

When we lost our minds: Pt. 4 Leamer's Counsel

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Monetary Policy Real Estate
  1. Housing start numbers are key indicators of upcoming recessions. When fewer homes are being built, it's often a sign that an economic downturn is near.
  2. The Federal Reserve may have waited too long to react to a housing market that was overheating, which ultimately could have led to more severe economic issues later on.
  3. In cities with strict building regulations, rising housing prices are often due to limited supply rather than demand. This creates significant issues like rent inflation and forced migration.

Hollywood's Real Estate Romance is Over

The Ankler • 923 implied HN points • 07 Jul 23
🎭️ Culture Film Real Estate Writing Housing Market Entertainment industry
  1. The Hollywood industry's writers are facing uncertainty about future work, impacting their ability to invest in real estate.
  2. The soaring real estate market prices in L.A. are making homeownership increasingly unattainable for writers and other entertainment professionals.
  3. The writer strike, combined with other factors like interest rates and taxes, is contributing to a slowdown in real estate transactions across Los Angeles.

October 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Urban Development Supply Chain
  1. Rents are going up because there's not enough housing supply. Even as rents rise, home prices continue to reflect this shortage.
  2. Since the housing crisis in 2008, homes in larger cities have generally become cheaper, while smaller cities have seen their prices increase. The mortgage restrictions ended up making things worse for affordable housing.
  3. The main issue with housing costs isn't about big-city advantages, but rather it's about how difficult it is to build new homes in many areas, leading to a supply problem.

When we lost our minds: Pt. 2 Respecting the Timeline

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Real Estate Market Analysis
  1. Home prices in cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas showed clear patterns before and after the 2008 housing crisis. They experienced a boom, then a downturn when lending tightened.
  2. During the crisis, low-tier home prices dropped more than high-tier prices. This happened because many poor families couldn't afford housing and had to move around or suffer from rising rents.
  3. Areas like Miami and Tampa had different dynamics, with more separation in low-tier prices before the crisis. They faced ongoing housing shortages, causing continual price increases even after the market correction.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Market Trends Economic data Price analysis
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index increased by 4.0% in November compared to last year. This shows that home prices are rising nationally.
  2. In Florida, many cities are facing significant price declines. Out of the 30 cities with the largest drops, 15 are located in Florida.
  3. This data is based on home sales that Freddie Mac has financed and includes regular appraisals. It helps track housing market trends accurately.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Mortgage Rates Investment Trends Economic outlook
  1. House prices have been rising, with a 3.9% increase over the last year. This trend looks set to continue based on recent data.
  2. The Case-Shiller National Index saw monthly gains for the 20th time in a row, indicating a strong upward movement in home values.
  3. Understanding past trends in the housing market helps predict future changes, which is crucial for buyers and sellers.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing Market
  1. House prices in the U.S. increased by 3.6% over the past year, according to the Case-Shiller National House Price Index. This suggests that home values are generally rising.
  2. In October, prices went up by 0.35% from the previous month, marking the 21st straight month of increases. Most major cities saw price growth, but some cities like San Francisco have seen declines from their peaks.
  3. Although house prices continue to rise, the rate of growth is slowing down compared to previous years. Factors like high mortgage rates and low inventory are affecting affordability.

Homebuilder Earnings Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Investment Analysis Market research Real Estate
  1. Homebuilder earnings are being updated, which is important for understanding the housing market. This update can give insights into how homebuilders are performing financially.
  2. Keeping track of homebuilder performance can help in making informed decisions about buying or selling a home. If builders are doing well, it might indicate a strong housing market.
  3. The information provided is available through a subscription service, which offers more detailed analyses and insights. Exploring these resources can be beneficial for those interested in housing trends.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Market Trends Home Sales
  1. New listings of homes were up by about 5% compared to last year, but they are still much lower than normal levels seen before the pandemic.
  2. The drop in mortgage rates starting in mid-August encouraged more homeowners to list their homes for sale, which is expected to continue even in the colder months.
  3. Weather events like Hurricane Milton affected home listings and sales in certain areas, particularly in Florida, showing that local conditions can impact the overall housing market.