The hottest Housing Market Substack posts right now

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Will Evicting Blackstone Help Young People Buy Homes?

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 2437 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing Market
  1. Most people in Washington agree there's an epic housing crisis, and many blame mega institutional investors who buy up starter homes.
  2. Lawmakers from both parties are pushing limits on those firms — for example, the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act would stop companies that own 350 or more homes from buying more and it passed the Senate by a large margin.
  3. But the housing market has many problems beyond big investors, and simply blocking firms like Blackstone won't by itself solve affordability or supply issues.

Vibecession: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

Astral Codex Ten • 54854 implied HN points • 04 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing Market
  1. The term 'vibecession' describes a time when the economy seemed fine but people's feelings about it were negative. Many young people feel stuck, afraid they can't achieve stability or homeownership like earlier generations.
  2. Despite economists saying things are getting better, many young people still don't feel it. They are often burdened by high housing costs and see less opportunity compared to boomers, even if their incomes have increased.
  3. A big issue is that opportunities now require more effort to achieve, which can make young people feel like they are failing even if they are doing okay. Media coverage also tends to focus more on negative narratives, contributing to this feeling.

Architecture Billings Declined Slightly in February

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 229 implied HN points • 18 Mar 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. Architecture billings stayed just below growth in February (ABI 49.4) and the index has been in contraction for 38 of the last 41 months, showing persistent weakness even as some measures hint at stabilization.
  2. Multi-family billings have been under 50 for 43 straight months, which signals ongoing weakness in the multifamily market and likely fewer multifamily starts ahead.
  3. Because the ABI typically leads commercial real estate investment by 9–12 months, the prolonged ABI contraction points to a slowdown in CRE investment through 2026, with notable regional and sector differences (the South near flat, the Northeast particularly weak, and commercial/industrial softer).

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 215 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Existing-home inventory has risen and months-of-inventory are mostly above pre‑pandemic levels, putting downward pressure on prices and making a year‑over‑year price decline possible this year, though a large wave of distressed sales is unlikely because most owners have strong equity and low mortgage rates.
  2. The housing market is uneven across regions: some areas are seeing bigger inventory increases and price drops, while places like the Northeast have smaller inventory gains and continuing price increases.
  3. Homebuilders look to have a rough 2026 with many completed and under‑construction homes unsold, leading to price cuts to compete with existing‑home inventory; overall active listings are up year‑over‑year but remain below typical 2017–2019 levels and the pace of growth is slowing.
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NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.09 million SAAR in February

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 258 implied HN points • 10 Mar 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. Existing-home sales rose 1.7% month-over-month to a 4.09 million SAAR in February, but they remain 1.4% below last year’s level.
  2. Inventory increased to 1.29 million units and months-of-supply held at 3.8 months, which is slightly higher than pre-pandemic (Feb 2019) levels.
  3. Median existing-home price ticked up 0.3% year-over-year to $398,000, even though sales volumes have been very low for more than three years.

Housing Starts Increased to 1.487 million Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 186 implied HN points • 12 Mar 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. Total housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.487 million in January, about 7.2% above December and roughly 9.5% higher than January 2025.
  2. The increase was driven by a big jump in multi-family starts (about +54% year‑over‑year), while single-family starts fell and were down around 6.5% year‑over‑year.
  3. Building permits declined (about 5.4% month‑to‑month and 5.8% year‑over‑year), and because multi-family starts are volatile the recent surge may moderate in coming months; housing units under construction remain slightly elevated.

March ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Average annual property insurance payments rose to an all-time high"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 272 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Mortgage lending climbed to a 3.5‑year high in Q4, driven by a surge in refinances as lower rates improved affordability and expanded the pool of refinance‑eligible borrowers.
  2. Average annual property insurance payments reached an all‑time high in 2025, rising 6.6%, and borrowers with higher insurance burdens are more likely to fall behind on payments.
  3. Overall delinquencies dipped slightly, but serious delinquencies and active foreclosures rose, leaving over 850,000 borrowers 90+ days past due or in foreclosure—the highest level since mid‑2018.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 258 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. February existing-home sales look to be down slightly year-over-year based on early market data.
  2. Active inventory is higher than a year ago—Altos shows about a 6.9% rise for single-family homes and reporting markets show roughly a 10% increase—but levels are still low within the year and a seasonal pickup is expected.
  3. New listings have ticked up modestly (around 1.8% YoY) while closed sales in early-reporting markets fell about 1.1% YoY, and sales remain well below February 2019 levels.

Where are Vacation Homes Located in the US?

Construction Physics • 30899 implied HN points • 24 Jul 25
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. Florida, California, and New York have the most vacation homes in the US, but states like Maine and Vermont have a higher percentage of vacation homes compared to their total housing.
  2. Vacation homes are mostly found near beaches, lakes, and ski resorts, showing that people prefer locations with natural attractions and activities.
  3. The growth of vacation homes has not kept pace with economic growth, indicating challenges like construction costs and zoning laws that make it harder to build new homes.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 229 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Existing home sales look to be flat or slightly down year‑over‑year, with early-reporting markets showing about a 2.9% drop and sales well below February 2019 levels.
  2. New listings and active inventory are rising — new listings were up roughly 5.5% year‑over‑year and active inventory climbed about 12%, so more supply is coming onto the market.
  3. Local conditions vary: Las Vegas is seeing slower sales, lower prices and rising inventory, while the Pacific Northwest has transactions down around 3% and listings up about 28% even as mortgage rates sit near 6.1%.

Asking Rents Continue to Decline Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 263 implied HN points • 04 Mar 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. Asking rents are down year‑over‑year and have been soft for several years, with the national median rent about 1.5% lower than a year ago and roughly 5.9% below the 2022 peak.
  2. A backlog of units started in 2021 completed mainly in 2023–2025 (especially 2024), boosting supply and raising multifamily vacancy rates to a record high, which has put downward pressure on rents.
  3. Even with fewer new rental units expected in 2026, recent immigration policy changes that reduce legal immigration and increase deportations are likely to cut renter demand and keep downward pressure on rents this year.

US Homeowners Hit New All-Time High Of $35 Trillion In Home Equity

The Pomp Letter • 339 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. US homeowners now have a record $35 trillion in home equity, which shows how much their homes are worth compared to what they owe on mortgages.
  2. The increase in home equity is mainly due to a housing boom during the pandemic, where demand surged while mortgage rates were low, pushing home prices higher.
  3. This huge amount of equity might lead homeowners to use home equity loans and second mortgages instead of selling their homes, especially since many have low mortgage rates.

Will the Housing Market Crash in 2026?

Progress and Poverty • 1885 implied HN points • 13 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. An 18-year land-cycle theory says fixed land supply makes real estate unusually prone to recurring speculative booms and busts driven by credit, building cycles, and expectations about future resale values.
  2. The historical pattern is suggestive but weak: the data set is small, several peaks require retrofitting to fit the 18‑year story, and market timing is generally unreliable, so the model is not a strong tool for precise investment forecasts.
  3. Recent housing indicators—high price-to-rent, a large real-estate share of GDP, falling affordability, and elevated new-home inventory—match the theory’s warning signs but differences from 2008 mean a crash is uncertain; the theory nonetheless implies that land-value taxation could dampen speculation and crises often create windows for policy reform.

1.600 million Total Housing Completions in 2025 including Manufactured Homes

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 253 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Total housing completions in 2025 fell to about 1.60 million (1.498 million excluding manufactured homes), down roughly 7.5–7.9% year‑over‑year.
  2. Multifamily completions declined sharply in 2025 (5+ unit completions down about 20% from 2023) after a 2024 surge, but they still ranked as the second highest level since 1987.
  3. Single‑family completions dipped slightly to about 1.01 million in 2025, while active single‑family inventory has risen (up 1.4% week‑over‑week and roughly 9.4% year‑over‑year) with a larger spring inventory pickup expected.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 234 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. National home prices barely rose in 2025, with the Case‑Shiller National index up just 1.3% year‑over‑year and the weakest full‑year gain since 2011.
  2. There is wide geographic divergence: Midwest and Northeast cities (like Chicago and New York) saw gains while many Sun Belt markets (Tampa, Phoenix, Dallas, Miami) posted declines.
  3. The year split into two halves — modest gains in the first half were followed by nominal declines in the back half, and inflation outpaced price gains from June onward, eroding real home values.

A "Shortage" or "Crisis" versus Regular Scarcity: Part 1

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 358 implied HN points • 16 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. How much of your income goes to housing mostly depends on your income rank, so the common 30% rule is useful because a rise in the share of households above it signals real stress, not just normal variation.
  2. Over the last few decades housing stopped keeping pace with income growth and new homes got smaller, and political limits plus inflated land values have turned that divergence into a real, widespread shortage that would take millions of homes to fix.
  3. Owning and renting are different economic choices—ownership buys control and has different cash flows—so price/rent patterns vary by income and location, and the crisis shows up as people being forced to trade down or leave places they value because local rules block adequate supply.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.2% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 191 implied HN points • 25 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Nominal house-price indexes are at new all-time highs, but after adjusting for inflation the national index is about 2.2% below its 2022 peak and the Composite 20 is about 2.4% below.
  2. The price-to-rent ratio is roughly 9.5% below its 2022 peak, which suggests prices have softened relative to rents.
  3. Real national house prices remain about 10.3% above the 2006 bubble peak. However, real prices fell about 1.3% in 2025 as rising inventory and persistent inflation put downward pressure, so it may take years for real prices to reach new highs.

Home construction leading the almost recession recovery

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 210 implied HN points • 25 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. Construction employment is a leading indicator for recessions and recoveries, so sustained building activity makes it harder for a deep recession to take hold.
  2. Rising interest and mortgage rates around 2022 stalled construction job growth, but the sector is also held back by non-labor capacity limits, and overall unemployment has recently peaked and begun to fall.
  3. Recent upticks in new home sales and a normalization of migration into high-growth regions suggest single-family construction may soon rise, and homebuilder results could surprise to the upside.

New Home Sales at 745,000 Annual Rate in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 229 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. New home sales ran at a 745,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate in December, and about 679,000 new homes were sold in 2025, a slight decline from 2024.
  2. Inventory is elevated with 7.6 months of supply overall; completed homes are near multi-year highs and homes not started are at an all-time high.
  3. The median new home price is about 10% below its peak mainly due to a change in the mix of homes sold, and initial sales estimates are uncertain and likely to be revised down.

Hovnanian 1Q 2026 Earnings

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 26 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. There are speculative signs that the housing market may be turning.
  2. Hovnanian's 1Q 2026 earnings report is being used to test those speculations about a market turn.
  3. Full analysis of the results is behind a subscription/paywall, though a limited free preview is available.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 86 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. Existing home sales remain weak — about 3.9 million SAAR and roughly 27% below pre‑pandemic levels, and sales have been unusually low for more than three years.
  2. Housing inventory is rising year‑over‑year and months‑of‑supply are nearing pre‑pandemic norms, which increases the chance that national prices could start to decline sometime in 2026.
  3. Prices are mixed: the national median is only slightly up year‑over‑year, but some local markets (notably California) have seen significant price drops, so conditions vary a lot by region.

Economics Links, 2/3/2026

In My Tribe • 243 implied HN points • 03 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. A concentrated productivity shift is underway in finance, insurance, information, and professional/business services: these sectors have kept growing output while employment has flattened, pushing output per worker sharply higher since 2022. This acceleration looks sector-specific rather than a broad private‑sector trend.
  2. There are two contrasting ways to see central banks: one treats them as liquidity providers and dealers of last resort sitting atop a hierarchy of money, focused on keeping payments and credit relationships working, while the other treats them as essentially a government bank whose balance sheet and interest on reserves make central‑bank liabilities behave like short‑term Treasury instruments. The choice between these views changes how you interpret central‑bank tools and their role in stabilizing markets.
  3. Fear of crime, not lack of demand, helps explain why many American cities stay low‑density compared with Europe: people avoid neighborhoods they perceive as unsafe, which reduces urban living despite high rents in safer areas. Making neighborhoods safer would likely raise demand to live in more parts of cities and increase density.

December 2025 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. Recent Census estimates show residential construction is recovering very slowly, characterized as a "slow, boring" recovery. The recovery is modest rather than a strong rebound.
  2. A persistent housing supply shortage is the dominant factor for near-term construction trends and matters more than mortgage rates. That shortage largely determines how much new building occurs even as interest rates move.
  3. Understanding the current situation requires a long view of about thirty years of housing activity; the analysis connects past policies and market shifts to today’s supply constraints. The narrative explains how historical trends helped create the present housing dynamics.

January 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 147 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Inflation that excludes rent has tracked very close to a 2% trend for about 3½ years.
  2. Rents should be treated separately from other inflation measures because they can distort signals used for monetary policy.
  3. Home price movements are driven by cyclical factors, credit conditions, and supply constraints, and understanding those components is key to interpreting housing trends.

Architecture "Billings remain soft to start 2026"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 153 implied HN points • 19 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. Architecture billings are in contraction, with the ABI at 43.8 in January and the index in contraction for 37 of the last 40 months. Because the ABI typically leads nonresidential construction by 9–12 months, this points to a slowdown in commercial real estate investment through 2026.
  2. Multifamily billings have been below the 50 growth threshold for 42 consecutive months, indicating continued weakness in multifamily starts and no billing growth for those firms since mid‑2022.
  3. Pending home sales fell 0.8% month‑over‑month and 0.4% year‑over‑year in January, missing expectations and signaling softer near‑term existing‑home activity; contract signings usually lead closed sales by 45–60 days, so weaker sales are likely in the coming months.

Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 62 implied HN points • 03 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Delinquencies, foreclosures, and the dollar value of REO properties have risen year‑over‑year but remain low by historical standards.
  2. Solid mortgage underwriting, widespread homeowner equity, and mostly fixed low rates make a large wave of foreclosures and cascading price declines unlikely.
  3. Foreclosure starts and inventory increases warrant monitoring, but many borrowers can sell or restructure loans, so the overall situation looks manageable rather than crisis‑level.

Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 248 implied HN points • 03 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. Asking rents nationwide have fallen year‑over‑year across several major indexes, continuing a multi‑month streak and pulling rents down from their 2022 peak.
  2. A surge in multifamily supply plus weaker demand — including slower household formation and changes in immigration — has raised vacancies and kept rent growth under pressure.
  3. The trend is uneven: single‑family rents and a few metros still show modest gains, while many large markets are seeing weaker growth or outright declines.

Final Look at Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 224 implied HN points • 02 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. Existing-home sales are very weak: 2025 posted the lowest annual sales since 1995, with a SAAR near 4.35 million and about 19% below pre‑pandemic levels.
  2. Inventory is rising and months‑of‑supply are above pre‑pandemic norms, and that higher supply—despite only a small median price gain—increases the risk of national price declines in 2026.
  3. Falling mortgage rates in late 2025 make a slight uptick in January sales likely, but new listings remain below 2019 levels so inventory improvements may be uneven across markets.

Follow Up to Random Thoughts

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 210 implied HN points • 02 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. The U.S. faces a large housing shortage — at least about 10 million homes and plausibly 12–15 million units — largely because construction fell after 2008 and vacancies have been depleted.
  2. Vacancies are at a functional bottom so new-home production must rise well above current rates to stop rent inflation, and major zoning reforms in supply-constrained (Closed Access) cities are needed to reach the higher end of the required housing.
  3. Per-capita housing consumption and residential investment are well below historical trends — conservatively about 13% below and equivalent to roughly $7 trillion (about 13 years of current investment) — meaning sustained, large-scale building is needed to close the gap.

Homebuilder Earnings

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 03 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Housing Market
  1. Pulte, M/I, and Meritage all reported earnings covering the period through December.
  2. Their earnings reports appeared to tell a similar overall story or trend across the three companies.
  3. Full details and deeper analysis are behind a subscription/paywall, so you need access to the paid content for the complete write-up.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 0.7% Year-over-Year in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 167 implied HN points • 30 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. National house prices barely rose — up 0.7% year-over-year in December and essentially flat month-to-month, marking a cycle low and raising the risk that YoY growth could turn negative in 2026.
  2. Many markets are down from recent peaks — 23 states and D.C. are below their previous highs, and the biggest city declines are concentrated in Florida, Texas, and California with Punta Gorda and Austin among the worst performers.
  3. Market signals point to further cooling — Freddie Mac and NAR measures seem to lead Case-Shiller, and rising inventory plus the lowest sales since 1995 have slowed national price growth and may push it lower.

I'm afraid the economy isn't improving for everyone

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 842 implied HN points • 12 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Many American families are earning more now, with a significant number making over $150,000. This shows that while some are doing better, the middle class is shrinking as they move into higher income brackets.
  2. Housing costs are rising much faster for lower-income families compared to those with higher incomes. This creates a bigger gap, making it tougher for low-income families to keep up with rent increases.
  3. Despite overall economic growth, many people feel worse off. Families with lower incomes often face serious challenges, and their situation is not improving like it should, leading them to believe the economy is unfair or 'rigged'.

Is This the Time to Buy a Home?

Spilled Coffee • 36 implied HN points • 04 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Interest rates are finally falling, but that hasn’t translated into lower home prices yet, so cheaper financing doesn’t automatically mean cheaper homes.
  2. Inventory is rising and there are more sellers than buyers, yet overall demand has barely moved, creating mixed signals about whether it’s truly a buyer’s market.
  3. Individual listings can still spark bidding wars and sell well above asking—especially for clean, desirable properties—so outcomes vary by property and buyers should be selective and cautious.

December 2025 Residential Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Home sales have been mostly flat through December but are starting to show signs of picking up.
  2. Inventory has been falling since the summer, which suggests supply is beginning to tighten.
  3. Months-of-inventory remains above seven months, so there is still ample supply and many willing counterparties in the market.

Do Homebuilders have an inventory problem?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 05 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Months-of-supply is a misleading metric because it mainly rises when sales fall, so it often just mirrors the sales trend rather than showing true excess inventory.
  2. Builders generally start homes in step with sales, so absolute unsold units haven’t exploded the way the months-of-supply chart suggests, meaning current measures don’t automatically imply dangerous overbuilding.
  3. Policymakers have misread this signal before and worsened downturns, and today the same misinterpretation may be pushing homebuilder stock prices down and could present a buying opportunity.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 16 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Housing Market
  1. Active listings for existing homes are up about 10% year‑over‑year and month‑of‑inventory is back to pre‑pandemic levels, which is putting downward pressure on prices and could lead to year‑over‑year price declines this year. Most homeowners still have substantial equity and low mortgage rates, so a big wave of distressed sales is unlikely.
  2. Homebuilders look to face a difficult 2026 because they have many completed homes for sale and an unusually large number of unsold homes under construction, so they’re cutting prices to compete with growing existing‑home inventory.
  3. Key government data on housing starts and new home sales are delayed by the shutdown, leaving the picture incomplete, and different sources show mixed inventory trends even though national supply remains roughly 17% below 2017–19 levels and the inventory recovery has stalled.

Personal update, and it's all happy

Disaffected Newsletter • 2957 implied HN points • 22 Aug 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing Market
  1. The author faced many challenges, including losing a long-term job and dealing with the aftermath of a flood without insurance. It was a tough time for them.
  2. Things are looking up now, as they sold their house for a good price and found a new living situation that will lower their expenses.
  3. The author is grateful for the support they've received and feels connected to readers who share similar perspectives, making their journey a bit easier.