The hottest Housing Market Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Daily Chartbook β€’ 1048 implied HN points β€’ 04 Mar 24
  1. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has increased for 4 weeks in a row, reaching 6.94%.
  2. Mortgage delinquencies rose for the second straight quarter across all product types, with an increase in new loans entering delinquency.
  3. Nearly 40% of US homes do not have a mortgage, showing a substantial portion of homeowners are mortgage-free.
Astral Codex Ten β€’ 4542 implied HN points β€’ 10 May 23
  1. Density is correlated with high prices, but demand, rather than new units, drives prices up.
  2. Long-term, attracting people through desirability is more impactful than building more houses alone.
  3. Building new housing may attract trendy cities, but some cities may have capped trendiness and adding density won't make them more popular.
Erdmann Housing Tracker β€’ 379 implied HN points β€’ 03 Mar 24
  1. Missing middle housing developments can be more impactful in addressing housing affordability issues than previously thought.
  2. Simply advocating for 'build more' without considering the complexity and various factors at play may not fully address housing supply constraints.
  3. Increasing the construction of 'missing middle' housing units significantly could play a crucial role in normalizing the American housing market and addressing housing shortages.
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Erdmann Housing Tracker β€’ 168 implied HN points β€’ 01 Mar 24
  1. About 30-40% of people don't believe increasing housing supply will lower prices or rents.
  2. In cities with limited housing supply, population growth can lead to decreased housing availability, impacting affordability.
  3. Cities that don't build enough housing can have negative impacts on low-income residents, forcing displacement and exacerbating housing affordability issues.
The Ankler β€’ 923 implied HN points β€’ 07 Jul 23
  1. The Hollywood industry's writers are facing uncertainty about future work, impacting their ability to invest in real estate.
  2. The soaring real estate market prices in L.A. are making homeownership increasingly unattainable for writers and other entertainment professionals.
  3. The writer strike, combined with other factors like interest rates and taxes, is contributing to a slowdown in real estate transactions across Los Angeles.
Erdmann Housing Tracker β€’ 252 implied HN points β€’ 02 Jan 24
  1. High housing costs are mainly due to long term rise in rent inflation and decline in housing consumption.
  2. The bubble story contradicts the evidence of high housing costs being a result of economic rents, not productivity.
  3. Robert Shiller's analysis overlooks the importance of considering rent inflation in understanding housing market inefficiencies.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter β€’ 148 implied HN points β€’ 12 Feb 24
  1. The 2-part overview offers insights into the current state of the housing market for mid-February 2024, covering aspects like house prices, sales, inventory, mortgage rates, and rents.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 2.8% year-over-year in January 2024, showing a slight increase from the previous year's record low for January, potentially signaling an increase in overall inventory for the market.
  3. It's important to note that December and January are typically the weakest months for new listings, and while new listings are expected to show year-over-year growth in 2024, March data will provide a clearer picture of their proximity to normal levels.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter β€’ 220 implied HN points β€’ 10 Jan 24
  1. The overview provides a snapshot of the current housing market including sales, prices, inventory, mortgage rates, and rents.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 9.1% year-over-year in December of 2023.
  3. Seasonally, December and January are weaker months for new listings, but it's expected that new listings may be up year-over-year in 2024.
Erdmann Housing Tracker β€’ 168 implied HN points β€’ 30 Jan 24
  1. Cities like Los Angeles face housing supply issues due to low permit approvals compared to cities like Atlanta and Phoenix.
  2. National housing market statistics can be misleading as there are extreme regional differences.
  3. The myth of a credit bubble causing price bubbles is debunked, with evidence showing price spikes before rise in debt in housing markets.
Erdmann Housing Tracker β€’ 210 implied HN points β€’ 09 Jan 24
  1. High home prices are driven by inertia and displacement, not aspiration or excitement.
  2. Households prioritize staying close to amenities and jobs over saving on housing costs.
  3. Obstructions to building homes contribute to rising prices, with private equity single-family investment firms filling the gap.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter β€’ 205 implied HN points β€’ 11 Jan 24
  1. The Case-Shiller National Index showed a 4.8% year-over-year increase in home prices in October.
  2. There have been consistent month-over-month increases in the Case-Shiller National Index, following previous decreases.
  3. Various reports indicate that house prices are continuing to rise year-over-year in November, reaching new all-time highs.
Erdmann Housing Tracker β€’ 84 implied HN points β€’ 14 Mar 24
  1. Cities with blocked growth experience a process of migration due to housing costs rising, impacting residents' average incomes.
  2. Affordability in cities like Boston, NYC, and LA could have been maintained if they grew at rates similar to other cities like Oklahoma City or Salt Lake City.
  3. Limited growth approval in certain cities contributes to housing deprivation and lack of affordability, not an overflow of demand.
Erdmann Housing Tracker β€’ 105 implied HN points β€’ 28 Feb 24
  1. The divergence between the average price of new homes and existing homes signals obstructed supply in the housing market.
  2. Changes in mortgage rates and market conditions can influence the size and types of new homes being built and sold.
  3. Reforms allowing for more new homes to be built could lower costs and reduce the price of existing homes.
Erdmann Housing Tracker β€’ 84 implied HN points β€’ 09 Mar 24
  1. The debt-to-income (DTI) ratio for households has generally declined since 2007, focusing more on new mortgage borrowers than all families.
  2. Debt payments have increased for older families since lending standards tightened in 2008, delaying when families take on mortgage debt.
  3. Higher rent inflation due to a lack of construction has pushed up mortgage costs in the early years, contributing to high DTIs.
Erdmann Housing Tracker β€’ 168 implied HN points β€’ 04 Jan 24
  1. The rise in home prices is mainly due to obstruction of urban housing rather than urban productivity.
  2. High urban rents have increased nationally post-2008 due to federal lending policies lowering housing production everywhere.
  3. Rising rents explain almost all of the increase in home prices, with excess rent accounting for a significant portion of residential real estate value.
Erdmann Housing Tracker β€’ 84 implied HN points β€’ 20 Feb 24
  1. The Case-Shiller home price index shows Miami hitting new highs while San Francisco has been declining.
  2. Both San Francisco and Miami have low housing production, with Miami consistently slightly higher in construction than San Francisco.
  3. San Francisco's construction activity seems to be waning, despite expectations for increased housing due to YIMBY wins and new state laws.
Erdmann Housing Tracker β€’ 63 implied HN points β€’ 06 Mar 24
  1. Mortgage affordability is affected by prevailing mortgage rates, which can impact transaction volume and buyer costs.
  2. The measure of mortgage affordability must be used with caution as inflation and buyer behavior play significant roles in housing market dynamics.
  3. The rental value of structures versus inflated land value over time can affect the dynamics of home prices and construction, highlighting the complexity of the housing market.
Asian Century Stocks β€’ 275 implied HN points β€’ 11 Oct 23
  1. Australia's housing market has experienced a long boom driven by various factors like low interest rates, commodity exports, and immigration.
  2. The affordability of Australian properties is a concern with high housing market values, low rental yields, and high household debt compared to income.
  3. Rising interest rates, declining job market, and decreasing migration from mainland China could lead to a potential housing market slump in Australia.
Ecoinometrics β€’ 275 implied HN points β€’ 06 Oct 23
  1. It's difficult to determine if Bitcoin or Ethereum are in a bear or bull market by just looking at monthly returns.
  2. Countries with high inflation rates might benefit from transitioning to crypto-based monetary systems.
  3. There are signs indicating a potential crash in the US housing market due to factors like artificially inflated prices and high mortgage rates.
The Sunday Morning Post β€’ 117 implied HN points β€’ 07 Jan 24
  1. The housing market has a significant impact on the U.S. economy, representing 15-18% of GDP.
  2. High interest rates and low inventory in 2023 caused fewer transactions and high home prices.
  3. Predictions for 2024 include falling interest rates leading to more supply, potential modest price declines, and buyers becoming more rational.
Erdmann Housing Tracker β€’ 42 implied HN points β€’ 19 Mar 24
  1. Consider using NGDP growth to communicate monetary policy instead of targeting inflation with short term interest rates.
  2. The yield curve's dynamics indicate recessionary signals and potential rate cuts by the Fed.
  3. Economic growth predictions for 2024 suggest low inflation, steady GDP growth, and a possible decrease in target rates by the Fed.
The Sunday Morning Post β€’ 98 implied HN points β€’ 14 Jan 24
  1. Rents have been increasing but are expected to flatten and possibly decline in 2024 due to a surge in new rental units hitting the market.
  2. Vacancy rates are starting to increase, indicating an evolving rental market tied to new inventory.
  3. Investors should be cautious as margins are expected to get tighter with declining rents, a tough borrowing environment, and tighter lending standards.
Erdmann Housing Tracker β€’ 63 implied HN points β€’ 18 Feb 24
  1. Rising rents are causing rising home prices in the US housing market, with a greater than 1:1 pace.
  2. Density of housing is crucial in impacting housing prices, especially in cities like New York City, where dense neighborhoods are affected by supply shortages and migration trends.
  3. The impact of COVID-19 on housing trends varies across cities, with some areas experiencing temporary relief in housing costs for dense neighborhoods while other cities like New York face complexities in supply conditions.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter β€’ 57 implied HN points β€’ 16 Feb 24
  1. Single-family housing starts were up 22% year-over-year in January, while multi-family starts experienced a significant decrease.
  2. There was an overall decrease in total housing starts in January, although November and December numbers were revised up.
  3. Permits held up better than starts in January, with likely impacts from severe weather last month.
Lewis Enterprises β€’ 334 implied HN points β€’ 12 Mar 23
  1. The evolution of mortgage-backed securities has significantly impacted the US housing market and the global financial system.
  2. The government guarantee on mortgages and the rise of MBS have reshaped the financial landscape, creating new layers of transactions and financial products.
  3. The financialization of the housing market has implications for social capital and civic engagement, affecting how Americans interact with each other and their communities.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter β€’ 33 implied HN points β€’ 15 Mar 24
  1. The closed sales in February were mostly for contracts signed when mortgage rates were lower than in the previous months. This signifies a trend of lower mortgage rates impacting sales.
  2. Active inventory in February showed mixed trends with some areas experiencing significant year-over-year increases in inventory while others saw decreases compared to 2019.
  3. New listings in February were up year-over-year, but still remained at historically low levels. Most areas reported lower new listings compared to January 2019.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter β€’ 105 implied HN points β€’ 17 Nov 23
  1. Housing starts increased to 1.372 million annual rate in October.
  2. Single-family starts bounced back, while multi-family housing faced weakness in late 2022 and early 2023.
  3. Total housing starts in October were above expectations, with year-to-date starts down compared to last year.