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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 234 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. National home prices barely rose in 2025, with the Case‑Shiller National index up just 1.3% year‑over‑year and the weakest full‑year gain since 2011.
  2. There is wide geographic divergence: Midwest and Northeast cities (like Chicago and New York) saw gains while many Sun Belt markets (Tampa, Phoenix, Dallas, Miami) posted declines.
  3. The year split into two halves — modest gains in the first half were followed by nominal declines in the back half, and inflation outpaced price gains from June onward, eroding real home values.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 86 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
💼 Business Mortgage Rates
  1. Existing home sales remain weak — about 3.9 million SAAR and roughly 27% below pre‑pandemic levels, and sales have been unusually low for more than three years.
  2. Housing inventory is rising year‑over‑year and months‑of‑supply are nearing pre‑pandemic norms, which increases the chance that national prices could start to decline sometime in 2026.
  3. Prices are mixed: the national median is only slightly up year‑over‑year, but some local markets (notably California) have seen significant price drops, so conditions vary a lot by region.

Final Look at Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 224 implied HN points • 02 Feb 26
💼 Business Mortgage Rates
  1. Existing-home sales are very weak: 2025 posted the lowest annual sales since 1995, with a SAAR near 4.35 million and about 19% below pre‑pandemic levels.
  2. Inventory is rising and months‑of‑supply are above pre‑pandemic norms, and that higher supply—despite only a small median price gain—increases the risk of national price declines in 2026.
  3. Falling mortgage rates in late 2025 make a slight uptick in January sales likely, but new listings remain below 2019 levels so inventory improvements may be uneven across markets.

America's Housing Rebound

The Overshoot • 1316 implied HN points • 20 Jan 24
💼 Business Mortgage Rates
  1. Despite high mortgage rates, construction and renovation spending in the US housing market have been holding steady or accelerating.
  2. Housing sales and construction are greatly impacted by changes in monetary policy and credit availability.
  3. The rebound in house prices and construction reflects the broader growth and asset price acceleration in the US economy post-pandemic.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.91 million SAAR in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 12 Feb 26
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. Existing-home sales fell to a 3.91 million SAAR in January, down 8.4% from December and 4.4% year-over-year.
  2. Median existing-home price rose 0.9% year-over-year to $396,800, so prices are slightly higher even as sales cool.
  3. Inventory edged down to 1.22 million while months-of-supply rose to 3.7 months, which is about the same supply level as before the pandemic.
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2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. Reports are being released earlier, which shrinks the early sample used for forecasts and raises the chance of bigger revisions; recent winter storms also delayed some closings and could make January sales look weaker than they really were.
  2. In the local markets that have reported, closed sales are down noticeably year‑over‑year (around -5.6% NSA), so seasonally‑adjusted national sales for January are more likely to be flat or slightly down instead of a strong gain.
  3. New listings are modestly down (~1.6% YoY) while active inventory is up (~5.8% YoY), so supply is higher than a year ago but still mixed compared with pre‑pandemic 2019 levels.

Final Look at Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
💼 Business Mortgage Rates
  1. Existing‑home sales remain weak — November's SAAR was about 4.13 million, roughly 24% below pre‑pandemic (2017–2019) levels, with year‑to‑date sales down about 0.5% and 2024 the weakest year since 1995.
  2. Supply is rising and uneven — active inventory is up about 8.8% year‑over‑year and months‑of‑supply are above pre‑pandemic levels, though new listings are down in many markets and regional differences are large.
  3. Prices could come under pressure — the national median price is up about 1.2% year‑over‑year now. Rising inventory suggests further regional price declines and a possible national decline in 2026, and December sales look likely to be slightly lower year‑over‑year despite modestly lower mortgage rates.

Housing Snapshot

Daily Chartbook • 1048 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has increased for 4 weeks in a row, reaching 6.94%.
  2. Mortgage delinquencies rose for the second straight quarter across all product types, with an increase in new loans entering delinquency.
  3. Nearly 40% of US homes do not have a mortgage, showing a substantial portion of homeowners are mortgage-free.

Daily Chartbook #255

Daily Chartbook • 1493 implied HN points • 10 Aug 23
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. Mortgage rates are at a new high for 2023, making borrowing more expensive.
  2. Despite high mortgage rates, mortgage demand has decreased recently.
  3. The US house price-to-income ratio is nearing levels seen in the mid-2000s.

Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 22 Dec 25
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. Housing inventory plunged during the pandemic and, although it rose through 2025, it still sits below pre‑pandemic levels.
  2. Past shifts in inventory have been useful signals for housing market turning points—big increases helped mark the 2006 top and big drops helped mark the 2012 bottom.
  3. Inventory is not seasonally adjusted so year‑over‑year changes are the best way to read it; for example, the NAR reported a 7.5% YoY inventory increase in November 2025, while months‑of‑supply uses seasonally adjusted sales.

Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic)

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 28 Nov 25
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. The serious delinquency rates for single-family homes by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been mostly stable lately. Both rates are below pre-pandemic levels but have increased slightly from last year.
  2. Fannie Mae's multi-family delinquency rate has reached its highest point since the last housing crash, signaling potential struggles in that sector.
  3. Mortgages that are overdue by three months or more are counted as delinquent, and loans from before the financial crisis still show some ongoing issues.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 12 Dec 25
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. Home sales in the sampled local markets cooled in November, down about 5.7% year‑over‑year and still well below November 2019 levels; seasonally adjusted national sales look to be flat or slightly down.
  2. New listings fell about 6.1% year‑over‑year in November after rising the prior month, and remain roughly 16% below October 2019 activity.
  3. Active inventory was up about 9.8% year‑over‑year, but the change is uneven across regions — much higher in places like Denver and Phoenix and lower in areas such as Grand Rapids and San Diego.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 30 Dec 25
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. U.S. house prices are only rising modestly: Case‑Shiller’s national index is up about 1.4% year‑over‑year and the FHFA index is up about 1.7%, with small monthly gains after prior declines.
  2. There is strong regional divergence: Midwestern and Northeastern metros (e.g., Chicago +5.8%, New York +5.0%) are leading, while many Sun Belt markets (e.g., Tampa −4.2%, Phoenix −1.5%, Dallas −1.5%, Miami −1.1%) are down.
  3. High mortgage rates are hurting affordability and price momentum—16 of 20 major cities fell month‑to‑month—so national home price gains lag consumer inflation and imply slight declines in real (inflation‑adjusted) home values.

Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 24 Dec 25
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. National house prices were mostly flat in 2025 with small year‑over‑year gains around 1–2%, so the outlook for 2026 is uncertain.
  2. Short‑term indicators (Case‑Shiller, Freddie Mac, NAR median) show only slight month‑to‑month gains and suggest year‑over‑year changes will likely stay in that small range or edge down in the near term.
  3. Supply and demand are the key drivers and there are big regional differences — areas with high inventory and rising months‑of‑supply could see local price declines even if the national average remains flat.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. Home sales in early-reporting markets fell sharply year‑over‑year (around 10.8%), though seasonally adjusted national figures may show only a small decline or be roughly flat because of seasonal factors and one fewer working day.
  2. New listings were down year‑over‑year (about 3.5%) and remain well below pre‑pandemic activity, roughly 21% lower than October 2019.
  3. Active inventory rose about 19.4% year‑over‑year, but there are large regional differences — some markets like Denver are up sharply while others like San Diego are down.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 10 Jul 25
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. Home inventory is increasing a lot, but home sales are not changing much compared to last year. This could push home prices down.
  2. Recent data shows that house prices have gone up overall, but there are signs that they might start to fall soon.
  3. There are big differences in the housing market depending on the region, so what’s happening in one place might not be true for another.

Are housing prices worse than ever in history?

First principles trivia • 177 implied HN points • 07 May 22
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. Defining median income, median home prices, and considering mortgage rates are crucial for assessing housing affordability over time.
  2. Analyzing mortgage payments as a percentage of family income reveals that 2022 is not the worst year historically for homebuyers needing a mortgage.
  3. When comparing price-to-income ratios, it's evident that 2022 is the worst year for all-cash homebuyers, but not as dramatic as some claims suggest.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in June

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 28 Jul 25
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. The serious delinquency rates for single-family loans from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remained stable in June. This means that fewer people are seriously behind on their mortgage payments compared to previous years.
  2. Freddie Mac's multi-family delinquency rates are at their highest since the housing market crash. This indicates some challenges in the multi-family housing sector.
  3. Historical data shows that delinquency rates peaked significantly during the housing bubble and the pandemic, but current rates are lower than those high points.

FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 30 Jun 25
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. Mortgage rates have dropped significantly since early 2020, with many loans under 4%. This makes it tough for homeowners to sell because they would face higher payments on new homes.
  2. More homes with loans over 6% are appearing in the market, indicating changes in mortgage dynamics since the peak of low rates in 2022.
  3. The average mortgage rate, along with borrowers' credit scores and loan-to-value ratios, is crucial in understanding the current mortgage landscape.

Goldman's Mid-Year Housing Outlook

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 21 Jul 25
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. High mortgage rates are keeping many homeowners from selling their homes, resulting in low existing home sales. People are reluctant to move because they don't want to lose their lower mortgage rates.
  2. The construction of new single-family homes is also expected to decline due to lower demand and increased competition from existing homes on the market.
  3. Home prices are likely to rise very slowly or remain stable over the next year, with some forecasts suggesting slight declines in prices due to rising inventory.

November 2024 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. Mortgage rates are really important for the housing market. They can greatly affect both people's ability to buy homes and the rate of construction jobs.
  2. Tracking construction employment can give insights into the housing market trends. It’s a clear indicator of how the market is responding to interest rates.
  3. There are ongoing challenges in the housing market, and the data can sometimes seem tricky. It's like a game where understanding the numbers is key to navigating the situation.

FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 57 implied HN points • 27 Dec 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. Current mortgage rates remain high, especially above 6%, making it hard for homeowners to sell and buy new homes. Most people with lower rates don't want to move because their payments would go up.
  2. More than half of all outstanding loans are now under 4%, showing how many people got favorable rates during the pandemic. This is a big reason why available homes for sale are currently low.
  3. Market sentiment is hesitant, with many potential buyers waiting for mortgage rates to drop into the 5% range before they consider purchasing a home.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 148 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. The 2-part overview offers insights into the current state of the housing market for mid-February 2024, covering aspects like house prices, sales, inventory, mortgage rates, and rents.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 2.8% year-over-year in January 2024, showing a slight increase from the previous year's record low for January, potentially signaling an increase in overall inventory for the market.
  3. It's important to note that December and January are typically the weakest months for new listings, and while new listings are expected to show year-over-year growth in 2024, March data will provide a clearer picture of their proximity to normal levels.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. The housing market shows an increase in home inventory, but sales are not growing much compared to last year. This can put pressure on home prices.
  2. House prices have recently increased year-over-year, but there is a decrease month-over-month for the first time since early 2023.
  3. There are different trends in housing across regions, which means some areas may experience changes in market conditions differently than others.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. House prices have been rising, with a 3.9% increase over the last year. This trend looks set to continue based on recent data.
  2. The Case-Shiller National Index saw monthly gains for the 20th time in a row, indicating a strong upward movement in home values.
  3. Understanding past trends in the housing market helps predict future changes, which is crucial for buyers and sellers.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. January saw a significant increase in active housing inventory, rising by 38.3% from last year, but it's usually low during this month. March will be important to see if this trend continues.
  2. New listings in January rose by 23.7% compared to last year, but they are still at historic lows when compared to January 2019.
  3. Closed sales in January increased by 6.4% year-over-year, which is a positive sign, but overall sales are still down compared to earlier years like 2019.

Housing Worries Are Building

Spilled Coffee • 44 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. Mortgage rates have jumped to 7%, which is making it hard for people to buy new homes. As a result, new home sales have dropped significantly, the worst drop since 2013.
  2. Building permits for new homes are also falling, which often happens before recessions. This suggests that fewer homes will be built in the near future, putting pressure on the housing market.
  3. There are a lot of new homes waiting to be sold, the highest number since 2009. If this trend continues, it could lead to a drop in home prices.

October 2024 New Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. New home sales have sharply decreased recently, which may be linked to high mortgage rates. This situation is causing a lot of homes to sit on the market longer.
  2. The increase in months of inventory suggests that buyers are hesitant or unable to purchase new homes right now. This might indicate a cooling off in the housing market.
  3. The article hints at changes in the housing market that could be significant. Understanding these trends can help potential buyers and sellers make informed decisions.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. Existing home sales saw a year-over-year increase in November, but overall sales are still low compared to past years. This means the market is slowly improving but hasn't fully bounced back yet.
  2. Inventory levels of homes for sale are rising, especially in states like Florida and Texas. More available homes could impact house prices as we move into the winter months.
  3. New listings are showing slight growth, but they remain lower than historical norms. This could mean fewer options for buyers compared to previous years.

The "New Normal" Mortgage Rate Range

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 105 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. Real estate agents suggest that mortgage rates may decrease to around 5% or lower once inflation is back to the 2% target.
  2. Current 30-year mortgage rates are at 7.26%, significantly higher than the 3.5% to 5% range prior to the pandemic.
  3. Expectations do not foresee a return to 3% mortgage rates unless there is another crisis.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. House prices are gradually increasing, with a 4.2% rise year-over-year noted in the Case-Shiller National Index. This suggests the housing market is still active but may slow down soon.
  2. The monthly increase in house prices has been steady, showing growth for 19 consecutive months. This indicates a long-term positive trend in the housing market.
  3. Future outlooks for house prices in 2024 are being discussed, hinting at ongoing changes and developments that could impact buyers and sellers alike.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. House prices are on the rise, with the Case-Shiller National Index showing a year-over-year increase of about 3.8% in November. This trend seems to be continuing into December as well.
  2. The month-over-month changes show that house prices have increased 0.44%, which means house prices have been consistently going up for 22 consecutive months.
  3. Looking ahead, there’s speculation about what will happen with house prices in 2025, indicating that trends in housing are important for future planning.

ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Annual home price growth cooled for the seventh consecutive month"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. Home price growth has slowed down for seven months in a row. This suggests that the housing market is cooling off.
  2. Mortgage holders currently have a lot of equity, totaling $17.2 trillion in the U.S. This equity can sometimes be tapped for additional borrowing.
  3. Recent cuts to Fed rates might encourage more homeowners to use their home equity. This could lead to an increase in home equity withdrawals by homeowners.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
💼 Business Mortgage Rates
  1. In November, home sales increased by 17% compared to last year. This is a good sign, but sales are still lower than what they were a few years ago.
  2. There was a big jump in active home listings, with inventory up almost 25% year-over-year. This increase is crucial for keeping house prices stable during the winter months.
  3. New listings are rising slightly, but remain low when compared to past years. This means fewer homes are being put on the market, even though some areas are seeing more options.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. Existing home sales went up for the first time in over two years, but they are still low overall. Many people signed contracts when mortgage rates were at their lowest in two years.
  2. Florida and Texas are seeing a big increase in house listings, which is affecting prices in those areas. Hurricane Milton had an impact on statistics in Florida.
  3. Each local market has different trends, and some data is compared to figures from 2019 to show changes over time.

Mortgage Rate Update

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 95 implied HN points • 06 Apr 23
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. The most prevalent 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now at 6.18% for top tier scenarios.
  2. There is usually a steady spread between the ten-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rates.
  3. The spread between Treasury yields and mortgage rates has widened recently.

Why Are Mortgage Rates Rising?

Spilled Coffee • 24 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. Mortgage rates are influenced by the 10-Year Treasury Yield, which reacts to the economy's growth and inflation expectations. Even though the Fed cut interest rates, mortgage rates have actually gone up because of the rising Treasury Yield.
  2. Currently, the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage rate is at 7.26%, the highest since July, showing a steady rise despite expectations for a decrease. This rise has persisted for four consecutive weeks.
  3. High mortgage rates and low affordability are causing home sales to decline significantly, with September recording the lowest closed sales of existing homes since 2012. Mortgage applications also dropped sharply, indicating a cooling housing market.