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Housing Snapshot

Daily Chartbook • 1048 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Mortgage Rates Housing Affordability
  1. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has increased for 4 weeks in a row, reaching 6.94%.
  2. Mortgage delinquencies rose for the second straight quarter across all product types, with an increase in new loans entering delinquency.
  3. Nearly 40% of US homes do not have a mortgage, showing a substantial portion of homeowners are mortgage-free.

America's Housing Rebound

The Overshoot • 1316 implied HN points • 20 Jan 24
💼 Business Housing Real Estate Construction Mortgage Rates Economic Growth
  1. Despite high mortgage rates, construction and renovation spending in the US housing market have been holding steady or accelerating.
  2. Housing sales and construction are greatly impacted by changes in monetary policy and credit availability.
  3. The rebound in house prices and construction reflects the broader growth and asset price acceleration in the US economy post-pandemic.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 148 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Mortgage Rates Inventory Sales
  1. The 2-part overview offers insights into the current state of the housing market for mid-February 2024, covering aspects like house prices, sales, inventory, mortgage rates, and rents.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 2.8% year-over-year in January 2024, showing a slight increase from the previous year's record low for January, potentially signaling an increase in overall inventory for the market.
  3. It's important to note that December and January are typically the weakest months for new listings, and while new listings are expected to show year-over-year growth in 2024, March data will provide a clearer picture of their proximity to normal levels.

"The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 19 Mar 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates Real Estate Market Dynamics Homeownership Financial impact
  1. Homeowners with low interest rates might be hesitant to sell due to higher mortgage rates, impacting the overall housing market.
  2. Rising mortgage rates create a 'lock-in effect,' reducing the probability of home sales and affecting affordability.
  3. The lock-in effect contributes to limited housing supply, increases home prices, and restricts mobility, but is expected to fade over time.
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Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgage Rates
  1. The Case-Shiller National Index reported a 5.5% year-over-year increase in house prices in December, with expectations for a slightly more positive change in January.
  2. Monthly, the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Index experienced an 0.19% increase, marking the eleventh consecutive month of increase, yet the smallest growth since January 2023.
  3. The post discusses the outlook for house prices in 2024 and invites readers to subscribe for more detailed information.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Market Mortgage Rates
  1. The closed sales in February were mostly for contracts signed when mortgage rates were lower than in the previous months. This signifies a trend of lower mortgage rates impacting sales.
  2. Active inventory in February showed mixed trends with some areas experiencing significant year-over-year increases in inventory while others saw decreases compared to 2019.
  3. New listings in February were up year-over-year, but still remained at historically low levels. Most areas reported lower new listings compared to January 2019.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
💰 Finance Housing Markets Real Estate Mortgage Rates
  1. Early reports suggest an increase in home sales from January to February.
  2. Closed home sales in February were based on contracts signed in December and January when mortgage rates were lower compared to the previous months.
  3. Inventory for housing markets in January was down year-over-year but has seen a slight increase compared to the previous year.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January; California Home Sales Up 5.9% YoY in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
💼 Business Housing Markets Real Estate Sales Inventory Mortgage Rates
  1. California home sales were up 5.9% year-over-year in January, marking the first year-over-year sales gain in 31 months.
  2. Active listings in California decreased year-over-year for the 10th month but new listings increased, suggesting some balance in the market.
  3. In January, closed sales in various markets were up 3.0%, showing improvement compared to the previous month, but they are down compared to January 2019 levels.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Markets Real Estate Inventory Mortgage Rates
  1. The final look at local housing markets in January showed low existing home sales but an increase in new listings for the fourth month in a row.
  2. Active listings in January were up 3.0% year over year, highlighting the importance of monitoring inventory trends in the coming months.
  3. Closed sales in January saw a 3.0% increase year over year, revealing differences from sales in January 2019 and hinting at potential sales growth in February.

The "New Normal" Mortgage Rate Range

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 105 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates Real Estate Federal Reserve Inflation Economy
  1. Real estate agents suggest that mortgage rates may decrease to around 5% or lower once inflation is back to the 2% target.
  2. Current 30-year mortgage rates are at 7.26%, significantly higher than the 3.5% to 5% range prior to the pandemic.
  3. Expectations do not foresee a return to 3% mortgage rates unless there is another crisis.

Mortgage Rate Update

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 95 implied HN points • 06 Apr 23
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. The most prevalent 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now at 6.18% for top tier scenarios.
  2. There is usually a steady spread between the ten-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rates.
  3. The spread between Treasury yields and mortgage rates has widened recently.

Are housing prices worse than ever in history?

First principles trivia • 177 implied HN points • 07 May 22
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates Housing Affordability
  1. Defining median income, median home prices, and considering mortgage rates are crucial for assessing housing affordability over time.
  2. Analyzing mortgage payments as a percentage of family income reveals that 2022 is not the worst year historically for homebuyers needing a mortgage.
  3. When comparing price-to-income ratios, it's evident that 2022 is the worst year for all-cash homebuyers, but not as dramatic as some claims suggest.

Where Are Housing Prices Headed?

Spilled Coffee • 0 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Mortgage Rates Home Prices Affordability
  1. Mortgage rates are at historic highs, hovering between 7-8% and leading to all-time high home prices despite low affordability.
  2. Inventory shortage persists as people with locked-in low mortgage rates hesitate to sell, contributing to the rise in home prices.
  3. Even with rising interest rates and low affordability, US home prices show resilience with 12 consecutive years of gains, indicating a continuing strength in demand.