The hottest Armed Conflict Substack posts right now

Satellite imagery can reliably show what changed on the ground, but it cannot by itself determine intent, legal responsibility, or definitive causes, so reporting should not treat those contested judgments as facts.
Understanding agricultural damage requires full context—past events, armed groups using civilian areas, border controls, and prior infrastructure loss all complicate any simple attribution of blame.
Scientific outlets must separate observation from interpretation and advocacy to keep credibility, and they should correct or clarify pieces that present disputed narratives as settled truth.

Drones have remade the battlefield: constant surveillance and kamikaze UAVs turned the area between armies into a deadly "grey zone," forcing a move away from large, traditional frontline formations.
Russian forces have tried brutal, improvised ways (horses, crawling, bad weather) to push across that zone, causing heavy losses and lots of local attacks but no sustained breakthroughs or exploitation.
Ukraine adapted by putting fewer soldiers on the front, using unmanned systems and small, highly trained units to inflict disproportionate casualties, and needs air defence plus more UAV production and training instead of mass conscription.

Mexico is not entirely governed by cartels, but some areas have a duopoly of power between the state and crime groups.
The concept of 'criminal governance' in parts of Latin America involves a duopoly of power - the state and the crime groups sharing control.
While cartels exert control in specific regions, the Mexican government still operates in those areas providing services, indicating a distinctive form of hybrid conflict.

Trump talks tough and keeps a "tough guy" image, but his military actions have been limited pinpricks that avoid dragging the U.S. into another forever war.
Peace negotiations over Ukraine are largely Kabuki theater for public opinion, while the real contest is on the battlefield where Russia currently holds the advantage.
Taiwan is a dangerous flashpoint in East Asia, but a full-scale war seems unlikely soon because neither side would win and both therefore have strong incentives to avoid fighting.

Wars can influence politics - like in Ukraine and Russia.
Putin's regime has suppressed democracy in Russia through control of media and power.
Ukrainian resistance is reshaping Russian politics and influencing Russian opposition's stance.

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Online spaces are a frontline for gender-based violence: women face constant harassment, doxxing, impersonation, sexualized threats, and coordinated smear campaigns.
Armed conflict amplifies and globalizes digital attacks: when violence escalates online abuse surges, crosses borders, and platforms often fail to protect or wrongly remove victims' content.
Digital attacks have real-world consequences and strip identity: online violence can lead to surveillance, physical danger, social exclusion, and requires action against platforms and algorithms as part of stopping harm.