Phillips’s Newsletter

Phillips’s Newsletter primarily focuses on the ongoing Russo-Ukraine War, offering detailed updates, strategic analyses, and reflections on domestic and international politics affecting the conflict. It provides insights into military operations, the impact of political decisions, and broader geopolitical implications while occasionally touching on US politics and strategic history.

Russo-Ukraine War International Politics Military Strategy Geopolitical Implications US Politics Strategic/Military History

The hottest Substack posts of Phillips’s Newsletter

And their main takeaways

Did You Know History Would Be Different If Zelensky Had Worn A Tie?

195 implied HN points • 04 Mar 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Conservatism Trump Foreign Policy Intellectualism
  1. Zelensky's choice of clothing, like wearing a tie, is humorously suggested to have impacted US support for Ukraine. This argument is seen as silly since US policy shifts started before his meeting with Trump.
  2. The current state of conservative thought in the US is viewed as weak, overly focused on pleasing Trump rather than engaging in genuine debate. Many conservatives are criticized for making unreasonable arguments to avoid facing uncomfortable truths.
  3. The article points out that the intellectual depth of the conservative movement has been in decline, which is symbolized by blaming Zelensky for Trump's issues instead of holding Trump accountable.

Just Say Thank You and Shut Up

413 implied HN points • 01 Mar 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trumpism Democracy Foreign Policy International relations Government
  1. Trump's recent remarks show his belief that countries like Ukraine should just be grateful and not push back against his or Putin's views. This attitude reflects a serious misunderstanding of Ukraine's need for sovereignty and freedom.
  2. There is a clear need for Europeans to support Ukraine and act confidently in their own interests rather than cater to Trump’s demands. European nations have the resources to help but need to focus on doing so independently.
  3. Americans who support democracy need to work hard to challenge Trumpism, especially in the upcoming 2026 elections. It's important to regain control to support values of freedom and democracy.

Weekend Update #122: Trump Opens His Mouth and Putin Comes Out

250 implied HN points • 02 Mar 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis International relations Media influence War reporting Public Perception
  1. Trump appears to fully support Putin's views, especially regarding Ukraine's military situation. This shows a concerning alignment with Russia's narrative.
  2. There is a belief that Ukraine is in worse shape than it actually is. Recent reports indicate that the Ukrainian military is holding strong despite Russian advances.
  3. European leaders need to recognize that Trump cannot be a reliable ally for Ukraine and should focus on supportive strategies independent of the U.S.

What Europe Should Have Done To Prepare For With Trump

146 implied HN points • 03 Mar 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics International relations Military Policy Political parties European Politics
  1. Europe needs to prepare for possible changes in U.S. support, especially if a populist leader who is not pro-NATO comes to power. This could affect their security and NATO's strength.
  2. The divide between U.S. political views on support for Ukraine and European perspectives is growing. European countries, especially those near Russia, see the war as a direct threat.
  3. If the U.S. reduces support for Ukraine, Europe must step up its military production and planning. Countries need to work together to ensure they can defend themselves effectively.

Why is Europe Staying in an Abusive Relationship?

174 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Relations Political Analysis International relations Trump presidency European Politics
  1. Europe feels trapped in a bad relationship with Trump, similar to how people stay in abusive situations due to fear and intimidation.
  2. Many European leaders don't recognize the unhealthy dynamics at play, which causes them to excuse Trump's actions instead of addressing their own weaknesses.
  3. To truly protect themselves, Europe needs to acknowledge the reality of this relationship and start acting more independently and confidently.
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Weekend Update #121: The Mafia State Takes Over the USA

344 implied HN points • 23 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Elections International relations Political Commentary Foreign Policy
  1. The US government under Trump is moving away from supporting Ukraine and is forming a closer relationship with Russia. This shows a significant shift in international alliances and could leave Ukraine vulnerable.
  2. There are serious threats being made towards Ukrainian leadership, pushing for economic deals that benefit the US while harming Ukraine's interests. This approach mirrors tactics used by organized crime families.
  3. The future of European unity and its response to US policies is uncertain. Upcoming elections in Germany could impact how European states choose to navigate their relationships with both the US and Russia.

More Mafia State Alignment and Merz Declares Independence

250 implied HN points • 24 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Elections Security Diplomacy International relations
  1. The USA is changing its stance and is now aligning more with Russia, moving away from support for Ukraine. This shift is alarming because it goes against earlier views that blamed Russia for the invasion.
  2. Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany's CDU party, talked about Europe needing to become more independent from the USA for its security. He believes Europe should work on its own defense capabilities.
  3. Merz’s victory in Germany’s elections might signal a big change in European politics. If he pushes for closer unity in Europe, it could really reshape how Europe deals with challenges from both the USA and Russia.

A Year of Ukrainian "Collapse" Narratives:

152 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
🌍 World Politics Conflict International relations Military Media Narratives
  1. Many media stories claimed that Ukraine was about to collapse during the war, painting a very negative picture of their situation.
  2. These repeated negative narratives can be harmful, influencing people's perceptions and possibly decisions regarding support for Ukraine.
  3. Despite the media's alarming predictions, Ukraine has continued to resist and fight back against Russian advances.

The US Has Taken Sides--Against Democracy

317 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Leadership International relations Public Opinion
  1. Trump has shifted U.S. policy to blame Ukraine for the ongoing war with Russia. This shows a clear stance against democracy and freedom.
  2. His comments indicate that America is moving away from being a global defender of democratic values. This change has serious implications for countries that depend on U.S. support.
  3. Recognizing that this is the official U.S. government position is crucial. It reflects a broader issue within American politics, and not just Trump's individual beliefs.

Weekend Update#120: The US Changes Sides?

334 implied HN points • 16 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Democracy International relations Political Leadership National Security
  1. Trump is openly shifting to support Russia over Ukraine, changing the U.S. stance that previously backed Ukraine's defense. This change is concerning for European leaders who are now realizing the U.S. may not be a reliable ally.
  2. Europe needs to start thinking about its own security without relying on U.S. support. Some leaders are starting to call for a European army to protect themselves from threats like Russia.
  3. The recent U.S. policies have made it clear that Europe must adapt to a new reality where it can't depend on America as much. This could lead to Europe taking stronger control over its own defense and future.

The Self-Defeating Machismo of a "Transactional" Foreign Policy

140 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy National Security Diplomacy Political Analysis Leadership
  1. Some people think Trump's foreign policy is effective and tough, often calling it 'transactional'.
  2. Critics point out that this approach may not lead to positive outcomes, especially regarding allies and global stability.
  3. Overall, there are doubts about whether treating foreign relations as deals can actually work in the long run.

Trump and Putin: Aligning over Ukrainian Elections

196 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Foreign Policy International relations Political Analysis Leadership
  1. Trump and Putin seem to be aligning on Ukraine, especially concerning the idea of holding elections there. This cooperation marks a notable change from their prior stances.
  2. Before the election, Trump and his associates didn't prioritize Ukrainian elections in their plans, but now they insist that Ukraine must hold elections soon.
  3. Many believe that Trump's push for elections aims to weaken Ukraine and support Putin's interests, leading Ukrainians to rely more on European assistance than American help.

This Is Not Appeasement, It Is Worse

193 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Foreign Policy International relations Geopolitics
  1. Trump is making concessions to Russia that could hurt Ukraine. He has suggested letting Putin back into the G7 and keeping Ukraine out of NATO.
  2. The U.S. seems to be giving Russia a lot of leeway during a difficult time for their military. This support appears to help Putin when he needs it most.
  3. Critics say calling Trump's actions appeasement is too simple, as he may be actively supporting Russia in troubling ways for Ukraine's future.

Weekend Update #119: Fighting Men With Machines Is A Good Thing: Ukraine Should Aim To Do More And More Of It

213 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy International relations Conflict analysis Geopolitics War reporting
  1. Using machines, like drones, to fight can be a good strategy for Ukraine. It's safer for soldiers and can be more effective against Russian forces.
  2. Recent reports show that Russian advances have slowed down, which might indicate a shift in the conflict. It seems that despite expectations of a Ukrainian collapse, they are holding their ground.
  3. Ukraine has been successful in making small advances into Russian territory, which gives them leverage in any potential talks. This suggests that Ukraine is not as weak as some media portray.

Weekend Update #118: The Trump Administration’s Talking Points are Straight from Moscow

235 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trump administration Foreign Policy Geopolitics Ukraine conflict
  1. Trump's team seems to be saying things that match Russian ideas about the war. This suggests they might be planning a deal that might not help Ukraine much.
  2. There's evidence that Ukraine is managing to strike Russian oil facilities, which can hurt Russia's economy. This shows Ukraine's strength, even without significant support from the U.S.
  3. Some political figures are spreading negative views about Ukraine's chances, even as the situation on the ground shows that Russia is facing difficulties. This creates a misleading narrative about Ukraine's future.

The Trump Plan Has Been Basically The Same For 6 Months

109 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Political Analysis International relations
  1. Donald Trump's plan for Ukraine hasn't changed much over the past six months. It mainly focuses on a peace deal that favors Russia.
  2. According to this plan, Ukraine wouldn't be allowed to reclaim its territories while Putin is in power. This limits Ukraine's chances of recovery.
  3. The proposed plan also keeps Ukraine out of NATO and suggests some easing of sanctions on Russia, which could hurt Ukraine in the long run.

Damaging US Relationships for Nothing

149 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Elections Policy Diplomacy Press
  1. Recent actions by the US government have hurt its relationships with neighboring countries like Canada and Mexico. These actions were supposedly in response to issues like illegal immigration and drug trafficking.
  2. There seems to be a mismatch between the tough talk from US leaders and the actual outcomes of their policies. Instead of strong responses, there might be more backlash than effective solutions.
  3. Some parts of the US press seem to have lost their ability to report independently. This raises concerns about the overall health of public discourse and journalism in the country.

De-Mechanizing and De-Populating the Front Line

94 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy Conflict analysis Geopolitics
  1. UAV technology is making the front lines very dangerous for both soldiers and vehicles. It's important to adapt quickly to these changing battlefield conditions.
  2. The Russian military is moving away from mechanical vehicles and is now using donkeys and horses for logistics. This shift shows a significant change in their supply strategies.
  3. Using too many soldiers at the front lines might be risky for Ukraine, given the advanced threats posed by UAVs. Smart planning is essential for safety and effectiveness.

Trump And The Dirty Little Secret of US Power

115 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Commentary Government Policy Diplomacy Elections Political strategy
  1. Trump has suggested that the U.S. could take over Gaza, comparing it to a vacation spot like the Riviera. This plan would involve displacing the current Palestinian residents.
  2. This idea echoes previous proposals where Trump showed interest in acquiring territories like Greenland and Canada. It seems he believes the U.S. should expand its territory.
  3. Trump's proposal has received support from some political figures, indicating a willingness among certain leaders to back controversial ideas related to U.S. power.

Weekend Update #117: OK, the War was not Ended on Tuesday--So what Now?

198 implied HN points • 26 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy War Analysis Political Commentary International relations Political strategy
  1. Trump has made some comments suggesting he sees Russia as weaker than before, but he's still not supporting meaningful help for Ukraine. He focuses on getting a deal to stop fighting rather than ensuring Ukraine's security.
  2. There are mixed opinions about Ukraine's military situation. Some believe they have enough supplies to continue fighting, while others fear a collapse in the near future due to lack of support.
  3. Currently, Russian advances on the battlefield are very minimal. There is little change, indicating that the situation might not be as bad for Ukraine as some fear.

The US Seems to Be Deliberately Weakening its Global Position

120 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy International relations Economics Global Strategy Geopolitics
  1. The US is becoming weaker on the global stage, which affects its influence and power. This might lead to challenges in maintaining its leadership in international matters.
  2. Alliances between countries are more powerful than relying on individual nations alone. Strong partnerships can help ensure security and success in conflicts.
  3. China's economic strength is growing, and when considering purchasing power, it may be leading over the US. This shows that economic measures can change the perception of power between countries.

Trump Rescuing Tik-Tok; Can the USA be Bothered to Save Itself?

164 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Executive Power Foreign Policy National Security Political Commentary Media influence
  1. Trump criticized Biden's support for Ukraine during his inauguration, calling it a national betrayal. This signals a shift in US foreign policy, raising concerns for Ukraine's future support.
  2. Trump's move to halt the TikTok ban is seen as a significant abuse of presidential power and questions the rule of law in the US. It suggests he can change laws at will, which is troubling for democracy.
  3. The response from American companies about TikTok may indicate their willingness to support authoritarianism over legal standards. If they prioritize profit over the law, it could weaken the spirit of democracy in the country.

Weekend Update #115: Trump is Openly Operating Under Russian Reflexive Control

213 implied HN points • 12 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy National Security Political Commentary International relations Military Strategy
  1. Trump's recent comments show he might be using Russian reasoning in his foreign policy views, particularly concerning allies and Ukraine. He seems less focused on maintaining alliances and more on adopting a confrontational stance.
  2. Ukraine is working on improving its long-range strike capabilities, having conducted significant attacks deep into Russian territory. This suggests they are trying to change the dynamics of the war despite facing difficulties.
  3. The situation on the ground in places like Donbas and Kursk remains stagnant, indicating a continued need for Ukraine to implement effective long-range strategies to alter the current conflict state.

Weekend Update #116: One Day Until A New World: Case Study on Sanctions

163 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Elections International relations War Strategy Sanctions
  1. Sanctions against Russia have toughened recently, making it harder for them to sell oil and damaging their economy. This could weaken their war efforts.
  2. Ukraine's attacks against Russia are increasing in frequency and coordination. They are successfully hitting key targets, which may give them an advantage.
  3. The war seems to be a race to see which side can keep fighting longer. While Ukraine fears running out of support, Russia is also showing signs of weakening, especially if Western aid continues.

Taiwan is "Strategic" and its Fate will Determine the Future of the Asia-Pacific Region

98 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
🌍 World Politics Asia-Pacific International relations Military Strategy Geopolitics Diplomatic Affairs
  1. Taiwan is incredibly important for the Asia-Pacific region. Its location and resources make it crucial for maintaining stability and power in the area.
  2. The future of Taiwan affects not just China but also its neighbors like Japan and South Korea. If Taiwan is threatened, it can impact these countries' ability to remain independent.
  3. Political decisions regarding Taiwan can have serious consequences. For instance, changes in the U.S. stance on Taiwan could lead to major strategic setbacks for the U.S. in the region.

Davos Impressions and Ukraine: Dealing with a Cult

124 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Global Issues Conflict Studies Political Analysis
  1. Visiting Davos can give insights into the current global situation, though the information may not be completely reliable. It helps in understanding different perspectives on important issues.
  2. There's a perception that American views on Ukraine are somewhat cult-like, focused mainly on understanding their leader's thoughts. This can create a narrow viewpoint.
  3. European leaders seem to recognize the danger of this mindset surrounding Ukraine but often try to appease it instead of addressing the underlying issues.

MAGA has Built a Castle of Lies, But it is Grounded on Two Truths

170 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political corruption Political Influence Media Elections Political History
  1. Presidents in the US have been increasingly cashing in on their positions over the last 50 years. It's become normal for them to make money after leaving office.
  2. Both major political parties have shared a troubling trend where past presidents and their families make large sums of money, often without clear expertise.
  3. Trump's approach amplifies and exaggerates a long-standing issue in politics, not something entirely new. It's about making an existing problem much more visible and lucrative.

Weekend Update #114: The Year that Confirmed Russia Can Be Beaten

183 implied HN points • 05 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Military Strategy Political Analysis International relations Political Commentary
  1. The Ukrainian military showed strong resilience and has successfully gained ground against Russian forces, particularly through offensives like the Kursk Offensive.
  2. Russia's military has faced significant challenges, suffering high casualties and losing strategic territory despite seizing a small fraction of Ukraine's land.
  3. Support from the US and Europe is crucial for Ukraine's continued success, but there are concerns that political influences could hinder effective assistance.

Weekend Update #113: This War is Truly Global

188 implied HN points • 29 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics Conflict International relations Global Security Military Affairs Bilateral Relations
  1. The war is affecting many countries globally, not just in Europe. Attacks on infrastructure show how serious the situation has become.
  2. North Korean soldiers are facing heavy casualties fighting in Ukraine, which raises concerns about their future and the support they might be getting from Russia.
  3. Russia's military actions are impacting its relationship with other countries. In one incident, Russian forces shot down an Azerbaijani passenger plane, highlighting their unstable control in the region.

He Could Not Even Wait Until The Inauguration

99 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Foreign Policy Political Analysis Public Opinion Leadership
  1. Trump's tough talk on China is seen as a facade, as he has shown favoritism towards President Xi and criticized Taiwan.
  2. He has publicly doubted Taiwan's value as an ally, arguing that they should pay for U.S. defense.
  3. Many people were misled by Trump's claims, as they did not want to believe his real stance towards China and Taiwan.

Experience Davos From Your Own Living Room

69 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
🌍 World Politics International relations Global Governance Conflict resolution Political institutions
  1. The World Economic Forum at Davos was not just for the elite this year; diverse voices, including those from less powerful backgrounds, were invited to participate.
  2. The current conflicts and political changes show that the old international order is struggling, and while it may not collapse immediately, it is failing to address pressing global issues, like the war in Ukraine.
  3. Future security for Ukraine may depend more on European institutions like the EU rather than NATO, which poses challenges for Ukraine's integration and support in these complex times.

Weekend Update #112: Ukraine Strikes a Senior Russian Officer (Again).

183 implied HN points • 22 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics Conflict International relations Military operations Geopolitics War Strategy
  1. Ukraine has launched a targeted strike against a senior Russian officer, showing the ongoing pattern of both sides aiming at each other's high-ranking military leaders during the conflict. Such attacks have been common throughout the war, not a surprising escalation.
  2. The fighting has shifted to smaller areas, particularly near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, indicating that key battle zones are becoming more condensed rather than expanding. This trend shows the difficulty both sides face in gaining significant ground.
  3. Russia is now relying on North Korean forces to bolster its efforts in Kursk due to significant losses. The North Koreans are struggling with the reality of modern warfare, suffering heavy casualties.

Weekend Update #110: Ukraine and the Degradation of Russian Power

248 implied HN points • 08 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Relations Military Strategy Political Analysis Geopolitics Media Critique
  1. Russian claims of major gains in Ukraine are misleading. They've taken tiny areas compared to the vast size of Ukraine, while suffering heavy losses.
  2. The situation in Syria shows that Russia is struggling and can't maintain its influence there. This failure reflects their weakened power since the war in Ukraine began.
  3. The narrative of an imminent Ukrainian collapse is not supported by facts. It’s important to look at the bigger picture instead of believing sensational reports.

Weekend Update #111--Trump And "Abandoning" Ukraine—Be Careful What You Say

203 implied HN points • 15 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Ukraine war Political Commentary Military Strategy
  1. Donald Trump recently discussed the Russia-Ukraine war, stating that the U.S. doesn't control its outcome. He emphasized the need for Ukraine to reach an agreement to stop further deaths.
  2. There's a growing recognition that Russia may be weaker than previously thought, especially based on its heavy losses in the war. Some analysis suggests that Russia's military struggles could lead to major equipment shortages soon.
  3. Public narratives often focus on Ukrainian failures while downplaying Russian weaknesses. This one-sided reporting can overshadow the complexities of the ongoing conflict.

Where are the Realists Defending Trump?

95 implied HN points • 11 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Governance Political theory International relations
  1. Great powers, especially nuclear ones, act to protect their interests. This means they are sensitive to threats near their borders.
  2. The idea of security and power is important in international relations, with all states seeking to ensure their safety, no matter their government type.
  3. Donald Trump is using language that aligns with realist views in foreign policy, particularly in how he frames issues related to Russia.

The Second Truth: The Unhealthy Aristocracizing of US Politics

77 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political corruption Government Elections Political parties
  1. US politics has become dominated by wealthy families, changing the purpose of political parties. This means parties are now more about personal gain than serving the public.
  2. Since the 1980s, there has been significant corruption and financial gain among political leaders, resulting in an unhealthy system.
  3. Past political dynasties, like the Adamses and Roosevelts, operated differently and were less about family legacy compared to recent political families.

The Vatnik Tell

128 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Conflict Studies Political theory Geopolitics Security Studies
  1. The term 'non-aligned' is a key point in discussions about Ukraine's future and its relationships with NATO and Russia.
  2. For Ukraine to maintain this 'non-aligned' status, it can't join NATO or host foreign troops for security.
  3. The statements from different speakers show a consistent view that Ukraine must stay clear of foreign military influence to avoid escalating tensions.

The Best Way to Appeal to Trump?

78 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trump Russia Ukraine
  1. Focusing on Russia's weaknesses can be an effective way to engage with Trump on issues like Ukraine. This approach plays into his narrative and interests.
  2. Understanding Trump's perspective is crucial for effective communication. Adjusting arguments to match his views can lead to better discussions.
  3. It's important to recognize how framing and arguments can impact political conversations. Tailoring messages to specific audiences, like Trump supporters, can change the outcome.

Samuel Charap's "Peace" Plan for Putin

126 implied HN points • 28 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Making Foreign Relations Political Analysis Conflict resolution
  1. Samuel Charap's peace plan favors Russia and doesn't meet Ukraine's main goals. This makes it controversial and not well-received.
  2. Many people who opposed arming Ukraine have been influential in shaping U.S. policy, even though their views are now seen as harmful.
  3. Access to important decision-makers in Washington is key for getting ideas heard, and Charap has had that access despite his past positions against supporting Ukraine.

History Wins Out in the End

90 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Narrative Public Figures Foreign Policy
  1. Public figures often try to control how they are remembered after their time in power. They do this through flattering books and hiring people to write nice histories about them.
  2. When in power, these leaders can shape their image but that doesn't last forever. After they are gone, their history will be analyzed and critiqued in ways that could upset them.
  3. The Biden Administration, despite being praised, faced several foreign policy missteps. Their attempts to create a positive narrative about these failures may not be successful in the long run.