Phillips’s Newsletter

Phillips’s Newsletter primarily focuses on the ongoing Russo-Ukraine War, offering detailed updates, strategic analyses, and reflections on domestic and international politics affecting the conflict. It provides insights into military operations, the impact of political decisions, and broader geopolitical implications while occasionally touching on US politics and strategic history.

Russo-Ukraine War International Politics Military Strategy Geopolitical Implications US Politics Strategic/Military History

The hottest Substack posts of Phillips’s Newsletter

And their main takeaways

Weekend Update #71: Was this the Week Reflexive Control Broke?

139 implied HN points • 09 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Ukraine Europe United States Russia Military
  1. Important European leaders, like Macron, are breaking free from Russian control in defining security interests
  2. US politics show Trump's increased influence, potentially affecting aid decisions regarding Ukraine
  3. Ukraine launched a mass UAV attack on Russian soil, indicating advancements in capabilities and preparation for future attacks

Weekend Update #72: The Weimar Triangle

94 implied HN points • 17 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Europe Ukraine Russia USA Military
  1. The Weimar Triangle, consisting of Macron, Scholz, and Tusk, plays a crucial role in determining Europe's support for Ukraine.
  2. Speaker Johnson's statements in Washington regarding aid for Ukraine lack concrete plans, leading to uncertainty.
  3. The actual war in Ukraine has seen the front line remain static, with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries showing strategic promise.

Weekend #70: Reflexive Control and Putin's Nuclear Threats

115 implied HN points • 03 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Russia Ukraine Warfare Nuclear Propaganda
  1. Reflexive control is a strategic concept used by Russia to influence enemy decision-making by shaping their thought processes, even more critical than battlefield actions.
  2. Putin's deployment of nuclear threats as part of reflexive control tactics has successfully influenced Western countries like the USA and Germany in providing limited aid to Ukraine, despite numerous unfulfilled threats in the past.
  3. The recent high rate of Russian aircraft losses in Ukraine showcases a short-term risk strategy to target Ukrainian military weaknesses, indicating potential long-term consequences for Russia's airpower.

Ukraine is Waging a Strategic Air Campaign Against Russian Oil Production

73 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Ukraine
  1. Ukraine is conducting a strategic air campaign against Russian oil production, escalating attacks on facilities like oil refineries.
  2. Considerations include the method of attack and defense, the challenges faced in such a campaign, and the potential positive outcomes if the campaign succeeds.
  3. Recent attacks, like the one on a Russian oil facility in Kaluga, demonstrate the ongoing nature of the conflict.
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Weekend Update #68. Ukrainians Withdraw from Avdiivka

124 implied HN points • 18 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Ukraine US Public Opinion
  1. The Ukrainians withdrew from Avdiivka after holding out for more than 4 months against Russian attacks, showing the impact of losing support from their main partner.
  2. US public support for aiding Ukraine remains strong, with a majority wanting to continue supporting Ukraine despite attempts to spin poll results in a negative light.
  3. A large majority of Americans are concerned about the war in Ukraine, anticipate it lasting years longer, and support ongoing aid to Ukraine, showcasing consistent public backing for these efforts.

This Should be the UK's Moment to Lead

73 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Leadership Brexit
  1. President Macron is actively trying to lead Europe's response to the Ukraine War, shifting the leadership from the UK with his powerful interventions.
  2. Macron's rhetoric like calling for a "strategic awakening" and the idea of European forces in Ukraine has received attention and impact.
  3. If Brexit had not happened, it would have likely been a UK Prime Minister taking the lead in rallying a European response.

We Need a New Language to Discuss Air Power

54 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
🌐 International Military Conflict
  1. Current language used to discuss air power may be insufficient in the context of modern warfare.
  2. There is a need for a new conceptual framework to engage with the evolving nature of air power tactics and strategies.
  3. Previous terms like air superiority, tactical airpower, and strategic airpower may not fully capture the complexities of contemporary air power discussions.

With Sweden Joining NATO, the USA has Won the Strategic War of the 20th and 21st Centuries

76 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics International relations NATO Security Europe
  1. The USA has achieved its long-standing goal of uniting Europe under its security leadership through Sweden joining NATO.
  2. Putin and Trump are desperate to prevent this USA-led security pact in Europe from turning into a failure.
  3. Since Theodore Roosevelt's era, the USA's primary security concern has been the fate of Europe.

Ukrainians sink another valuable Russian warship

86 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Conflict Ukraine Russia Military
  1. Ukrainians have successfully hit and sunk multiple valuable Russian warships in recent months, showcasing potential technological advancements or weaknesses in the Russian Navy.
  2. The reliability of Ukrainian claims regarding attacks on large Russian warships have been largely accurate, with visible evidence backing their actions.
  3. The recent sinking of the Russian Ropucha Class landing vessel, Caesar Kunikov, marks the third such incident within the span of seven months, indicating a consistent trend.

Weekend Update #67: Command Change

92 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Strategic Planning Foreign Relations
  1. Thursday was significant for Ukrainian command with the announcement of a new leader, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, after General Zaluzhny was relieved, highlighting a bold move by Zelensky.
  2. The emphasis on the importance of commanders not being turned into celebrities, as success in warfare is a team effort and not solely dependent on individual brilliance.
  3. Zelensky has started outlining potential strategies for Ukraine's war efforts, including the creation of a new branch for Unmanned Systems Forces and plans to attack Russian assets.
  4. The political situation in Washington remains uncertain, but there is a slight optimism for more aid to Ukraine if certain factors align in Congress.

What Europe Must Do Now in 10 Steps

95 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics European Union Security Membership Democracy
  1. European states need to prepare for potential security challenges without relying on the US.
  2. The European Union should take on more responsibility for European security, including integrating Ukraine and UK, and removing non-democratic states.
  3. Immediate steps are needed to support Ukraine in the war, requiring quick and decisive action from European states.

A Thank You to Subscribers

80 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics US Politics Power Dynamics Military History
  1. The author expresses gratitude to subscribers for their support and the growth of the community.
  2. Future plans for the Substack include more content on Ukraine War, Strategic/Military History, US politics, and the author's upcoming books.
  3. There is a promise to keep the Ukraine-Russia War Talk Podcast free and also introduce a periodic podcast on non-Ukraine topics for paying subscribers.

General Oleksandr Syrskyi

82 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Military Ukraine Controversy Context
  1. General Oleksandr Syrskyi's appointment as Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has divided opinions.
  2. Syrskyi is a controversial military figure in Ukraine, causing much talk and debate.
  3. President Zelensky's decision to appoint Syrskyi is seen as risky due to the divided opinions surrounding him.

Two Different Languages

59 implied HN points • 23 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Ukraine Europe Russia USA
  1. There is a noticeable shift in European discourse regarding the Ukraine war, with a growing emphasis on the need for Ukraine to win against Russia.
  2. The longer the war persists and the more atrocities Russia commits, the more resistance there is to the idea of Putin achieving a victory in Europe.
  3. While there may not be a complete consensus on the matter, there is a clear trend in European sentiment towards the conflict.

The Democrats Need to Make a Bold Move--Now

77 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Policy Government
  1. The Democratic Party should make a bold move now, similar to how FDR approached challenging situations in the past.
  2. It is essential for Europe to respond promptly to the comments made by Donald Trump regarding NATO and Russia.
  3. The need for real boldness is emphasized, indicating a potential call to action for the Democratic Party to consider for the future.

Weekend Update #64: Crunch Time in Washington

109 implied HN points • 20 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Washington is facing a critical moment in decision-making regarding aid for Ukraine amidst political tensions and pressure from Trump
  2. UK Conservatives' support for Ukraine is being questioned for being more performative than substantial, especially with Boris Johnson endorsing Trump
  3. Ukraine's adoption of 'Active Defense' strategy is gaining attention, with western officials attempting to influence Ukraine's military approach

How Ukraine Can Win: Kamyshin Speaks

62 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Ukraine Warfare Government
  1. President Zelensky establishing an 'Unmanned Systems Force' shows Ukraine's adoption of strategic ideas
  2. Oleksandr Kamyshin played a crucial role in maintaining the Ukrainian railways during the invasion
  3. Kamyshin transitioned to overseeing a new ministry focused on the Ukrainian war industry

Supreme Command: Its not a Celebrity Contest

69 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Military Leadership History Conflict
  1. General Zaluzhny was relieved of his military command in Ukraine, leading to speculation about the reasons behind it.
  2. There were tensions between President Zelensky and General Zaluzhny, with reports of Zaluzhny's imminent replacement circulating.
  3. The situation with General Zaluzhny reflects historical dynamics of leadership and command changes during times of crisis.

Direct Messages Now on Substack!

30 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Messaging
  1. Direct messages feature now available on Substack for private one-to-one conversations among writers and readers.
  2. Authors can now send individual messages to paying subscribers, enhancing communication with the audience.
  3. Paying subscribers have the ability to message the author directly, fostering interaction and engagement.

The Historical Exceptionalism of US Escalation Policy and the War in Ukraine

79 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics US Policy Leadership War Biden administration
  1. Different leaders and governments produce wildly different policies based on their perceptions of the world.
  2. US administrations, like the Biden Administration, exhibit exceptional fear of escalation in wars compared to the USSR and China in the past.
  3. Leaderships matter significantly in shaping foreign policy and responses to global conflicts.

AI and the Future of War (even in Ukraine)

57 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
🕹 Technology AI War Drones Military Innovation
  1. Uncrewed aircraft have significant operational and cost advantages over crewed aircraft, making them likely to dominate future warfare.
  2. Uncrewed aircraft can fly longer, make maneuvers that stress the human body, and be more flexible due to not needing to support human life onboard.
  3. The absence of human pilots reduces decision-making pressure, operational limitations, and costly training needs, giving a strategic advantage in warfare.

The 2024 elections: Glass Half Empty or Half Full?

28 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Biden administration Policy Democracy
  1. There are contradictory indicators about the upcoming US presidential election, with under-counted Democratic support in polls and increasing voter support for Trump.
  2. The author admits bias in wanting Trump to lose due to concerns about his threat to democracy, expressing a preference for Joe Biden over Trump.
  3. Pessimism about defeating Trump stems from a change in voter preferences towards Trump, particularly in distinct ethnic demographics.

Weekend Update #35

190 implied HN points • 02 Jul 23
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. The Ukrainian counteroffensive is not resulting in a quick breakthrough.
  2. Progress is being made steadily despite concerns.
  3. Domestic politics play a crucial role in this phase.

Weekend Update #39

139 implied HN points • 30 Jul 23
🌍 World Politics Analysis Drones
  1. The post discusses the recent events in the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
  2. There were conflicting reports about Ukrainian efforts and reserves.
  3. The analysis examines the implications for the future.

Weekend Update #34

151 implied HN points • 25 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics Russia Ukraine
  1. Prigozhin's Wagner force mutiny in Russia has complex motivations
  2. Hard to understand the true reasons behind the mutiny
  3. Access full post archives with a 7-day free trial by subscribing

Weekend Update #28

155 implied HN points • 14 May 23
🌍 World Politics Conflict Military Diplomacy
  1. The Russian Winter Offensive of 2022-23 ended with the initiative moving to Ukrainian hands.
  2. There was a noticeable shift in momentum during the week.
  3. Phillip P. OBrien's Weekend Update #28 discusses these recent developments.