The hottest Campaigns Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Business Topics

GOP Primary Candidate Venn Diagram #1: Newt Gingrich

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 19 Dec 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Newt Gingrich ran as a candidate in the GOP primary, known for his influential role in politics. He is seen as a significant figure within the Republican Party.
  2. Venn diagrams of political candidates can show how they relate to each other and their voter bases. They help visualize differences and similarities among various candidates.
  3. Other GOP candidates like Mitt Romney and Ron Paul were also part of the primary process. Each candidate had their unique approach and message, impacting the election dynamics.

The Adventures of Link(s)

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 19 Nov 11
🎾 Sports Campaigns
  1. Baseball playoffs are exciting but often unfair, making them more about luck than skill. The beauty of baseball lies in the long season, not just the post-season rush.
  2. There's a debate about how much campaigns really matter in elections. Many people wish for democracy to be more about great ideas and leaders than just voting based on tough times.
  3. Election outcomes are usually influenced by bigger factors than campaigns, with candidates' fates often decided before they even start campaigning. It's important to understand the underlying trends rather than just the surface drama.

Double Herman-uetic

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 31 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Amateur candidates often face more scrutiny for past mistakes than seasoned politicians. Career politicians usually have their issues dealt with through previous campaigns, so they have less to worry about.
  2. Some people believe controversies won't hurt a candidate, but many factors suggest otherwise. Allegations can impact a candidate's support, especially when they are competing against others in their own party.
  3. Even if a candidate survives a scandal, it can hurt their overall appeal and support. The lack of endorsements and fundraising issues can become more pronounced after such controversies.

It doesn't matter. But in what way?

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 21 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Not everything in politics affects the outcome. Some things, like debates or running mate choices, seem important but often don’t really change what happens.
  2. There are different reasons why something might not matter. Sometimes it’s because there’s no clear advantage to choosing one option over another.
  3. Campaigns tend to be cautious because avoiding mistakes is a smart strategy. They focus on minimizing errors to protect against losing advantages they don’t even have.

Posterior Perry-bility: A (semi-serious) Bayesian update of Rick Perry

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 13 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Rick Perry's chances of becoming the GOP nominee have dropped after performing poorly in four debates.
  2. Bayesian analysis shows that his updated probability of being the nominee is now 24%, down from 39%.
  3. The discussion raises questions about how to accurately assess someone's debate performance and its impact on their nomination chances.
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On the effectiveness of campaigns

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 17 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Most of the money spent on campaigning is wasted. It's hard to know what actually works, so campaigns often spend in a scattershot way.
  2. There are methods like running experiments to see what campaign strategies are effective and how much they really cost. Door-to-door contact, for example, is usually more effective than phone calls.
  3. While research is helping campaigns waste less money, it may still only cut down the waste to two-thirds instead of eliminating it completely. There's always going to be some level of uncertainty in what works.

On the possibiltiy of a centrist 3rd party in 2012

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 15 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. The chances for a successful centrist third party depend on the Republican nominee being very conservative, which could push some moderate voters toward an independent candidate.
  2. Starting a third party campaign is tough because of strict campaign finance laws and the need for early fundraising and organization.
  3. Even if a credible centrist candidate emerges, it might not lead to a lasting third party due to the strong two-party system in place.

On longshots

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 07 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Not all candidates run for president to win. They might have other reasons like raising awareness for issues or building their political network.
  2. Some candidates aim to change their party's views or set themselves up for future elections, even if they know they are longshots.
  3. Similarly, politicians introduce lots of bills that won't pass for various reasons, like showing their ideals or gaining media attention, which is usually a cheap and easy process.

On candidates holding odd jobs

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 16 Aug 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. It's very rare for someone who's currently in the House of Representatives to run for president. Only a few have even won significant votes in the past.
  2. Being a sitting Representative often means lacking enough political experience and stature that voters expect from presidential candidates.
  3. Representatives can have a lot to lose if they run for president because they might have to give up their powerful roles in Congress, and their long voting history can be used against them.

I told you so

Numb at the Lodge • 0 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. There are two main groups in American politics: one that is educated and informed, and another that is often seen as less informed. This divide affects who wins elections.
  2. Kamala Harris, while politically skilled, failed to connect with voters, which led to her loss. The Democratic Party didn't pick a strong candidate to face Trump.
  3. People feel forced to choose between candidates, often leading to dissatisfaction. Many voters believe they are stuck in a bad situation without real options.