Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality $10 / month

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality explores economic history, economics, political economy, finance, and forecasting with a focus on understanding and addressing the complexities of contemporary global challenges. It critically analyzes current events, historical occurrences, and theoretical perspectives to offer insight into economic inequalities, democracy, neoliberal ideas, and geopolitical tensions.

Economic History Political Economy Finance and Forecasting Contemporary Global Challenges Economic Inequalities Democracy and Governance Neoliberalism Geopolitical Tensions

The hottest Substack posts of Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality

And their main takeaways
361 implied HN points โ€ข 14 Mar 24
  1. Having neighbors who vote for Donald Trump could lead to a higher chance of dying from the Covid Plague.
  2. The difference in Covid outcomes between counties may not be due to behavioral factors, but rather to vaccination rates influenced by political views.
  3. Vaccination rates seem to be linked to political figures like Donald Trump, showing how politics can impact public health.
207 implied HN points โ€ข 16 Mar 24
  1. Isaiah Berlin's take on Karl Marx focused not just on Marx's life but also on his intellectual environment and impact on history.
  2. Berlin's writing style brought historical figures like Marx to life, balancing psychology and intellectual analysis skillfully.
  3. Marxism, as presented by Berlin, challenges the idea that ideas solely drive history, highlighting the complex relationship between individuals, their environment, and social change.
299 implied HN points โ€ข 11 Mar 24
  1. Dune by Frank Herbert is a complex and problematic story that delves into themes of tragedy, power, and morality.
  2. The connection between mastery-as-expertise and mastery-as-domination in stories like 'Dune' reflects historical perspectives rooted in Agrarian-Age dynamics of power and exploitation.
  3. While enjoying stories like 'Dune,' it's important to analyze and recognize the problematic aspects of the themes presented, such as the intertwining of expertise and dominance.
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169 implied HN points โ€ข 14 Mar 24
  1. Very large-scale, high-dimension regression and classification analysis will be game-changing, transforming bureaucracy to algorithms with significant impacts across sectors from finance to healthcare.
  2. Natural-language interfaces to databases may be challenging to control but offer more intuitive access to vast information repositories, potentially enhancing user efficiency.
  3. Autocomplete technology provides substantial time savings for white-collar workers, illustrating the significant productivity boost modern technologies can offer.
69 implied HN points โ€ข 18 Mar 24
  1. Economic transformations involve recognizing opportunities, investing, experiencing euphoria, and dealing with crashes, crises, and adjustments.
  2. In the Biden Administration, there is notable tension between departments like Treasury and the Pentagon, hampering collaboration for economic change.
  3. Understanding collective intelligence and distributed cognition is crucial - global economic challenges require more than individual human capabilities.
169 implied HN points โ€ข 10 Mar 24
  1. Brexit has resulted in significant economic damage for the UK, with 4% reduction in potential productivity alone
  2. UK's economic performance has been dire, requiring investments in infrastructure, people, and systems to recover
  3. Challenges with media integrity are highlighted, showcasing the importance of unbiased reporting and journalism ethics
315 implied HN points โ€ข 29 Feb 24
  1. In a society with structural racism, even a good meritocratic system can unfairly advantage privileged groups and disadvantage marginalized ones.
  2. Meritocratic tests can also perpetuate structural racism, leading to unfair outcomes in job selection.
  3. Choosing the best people for a job involves considering and addressing structural racism in both access to resources and the testing process.
222 implied HN points โ€ข 04 Mar 24
  1. The Viceroyalty of New Spain in 1550 was dominated by a gunpowder-empire machine with Castilians and indigenous populations, showcasing early forms of state development.
  2. The introduction of the Patio Process in 1554 for silver extraction revolutionized mining districts in Mexico, attracting workers and increasing prosperity due to the flow of mercury.
  3. Improved fiscal legibility in mining districts post-Patio Process led to accelerated political centralization, as viceroys had more confidence in transitioning areas from encomienda to corregimiento for better state control and revenue collection.
153 implied HN points โ€ข 08 Mar 24
  1. Many were surprised by the current interest-rate situation in the US, with rates significantly higher than expected.
  2. Market changes in 2022 led to a drastic increase in long-term real safe interest rates, signaling shifts in Federal Reserve policy.
  3. The current interest-rate configuration, considerably higher than anticipated, raised concerns about a looming recession among experts.
169 implied HN points โ€ข 04 Mar 24
  1. It's uncertain how current AML GPT LLMs will be most useful in the future, so spending too much time trying to master them may not be the best approach.
  2. Proper prompting is crucial when working with AML GPT LLMs as they can be capable of more than initially apparent. Good prompts can make tasks that seem impossible into achievable ones.
  3. Understanding the thought processes and effective way to prompt AML GPT LLMs is essential, as their responses can vary based on subtle changes or inadequate prompting.
207 implied HN points โ€ข 29 Feb 24
  1. People have high expectations of AI models like GPT, but they are not flawless and have limitations.
  2. The panic over an AI model's depiction of a Black Pope reveals societal biases regarding race and gender.
  3. AI chatbots like Gemini are viewed in different ways by users and enthusiasts, leading to conflicting expectations of their capabilities.
107 implied HN points โ€ข 07 Mar 24
  1. Elon Musk's actions are generating controversy and dividing opinions. His decisions are affecting his employees and leading to legal battles.
  2. Passive investing creates opportunities for active investors through analyzing fundamental news, noise trading, and security analysis.
  3. Peter Drucker viewed corporations as potential leaders for societal betterment by subordinating markets to social needs and environmental protection.
215 implied HN points โ€ข 24 Feb 24
  1. Teddy Roosevelt aimed to emphasize the importance of American heritage and the impact of the Pilgrims and Puritans on the nation.
  2. He advocated for building on the positive qualities of the past while recognizing the advancements made since then.
  3. Roosevelt promoted fighting against plutocracy and enforcing fair treatment in wealth accumulation, favoring a balance of individual initiative and collective responsibility.
146 implied HN points โ€ข 01 Mar 24
  1. Warren Buffett expanded his investment philosophy following advice from Munger, which led to adding wonderful businesses purchased at fair prices
  2. Stock pundits have faced criticism for underperformance and being influenced by popular views, impacting small and mid-capitalisation stocks
  3. Berkshire Hathaway Energy's financial stability in the face of climate change contrasts with utilities like PG&E and Hawaiian Electric facing bankruptcy
153 implied HN points โ€ข 24 Feb 24
  1. The classification and cultural appropriation of historical figures can be misleading and can lead to misconceptions about their identities.
  2. We must be cautious about labeling ancient civilizations as 'white guys' because it overlooks their true identities, leading to missed opportunities for learning and growth.
  3. It's important to recognize the alien nature of classical Greeks and Romans and not project modern ideologies onto them, acknowledging the differences to gain a deeper understanding.
153 implied HN points โ€ข 19 Feb 24
  1. Wars are negative-sum activities where mistakes are made by one or both parties involved.
  2. The book 'On Wars' by Michael Mann explores the history and nature of war, aiming to understand the underlying causes of conflicts and achieve peace.
  3. Chris Blattman's 'Why We Fight' provides a useful sociology of war by identifying key types of mistakes that lead to wars, offering insights to guide toward peace.
215 implied HN points โ€ข 10 Feb 24
  1. Don't prioritize 'vibes' over actual data - the economy is actually excellent compared to past years.
  2. Partisanship influences perceptions of the economy - Democrats more optimistic than Republicans.
  3. Journalists sometimes emphasize negative news, even when data shows a positive economic situation.
92 implied HN points โ€ข 28 Feb 24
  1. Management is different from hierarchical command-and-control, bureaucratic obedience, and market haggling. It's about reconciling various interests for the smooth operation of the system.
  2. Peter F. Drucker viewed the manager as a trustee of civilization and envisioned a role that balanced freedom, efficiency, equity, and order.
  3. Management is seen as a profession that aligns the interests of all stakeholders while ensuring the free development of individuals within society.
153 implied HN points โ€ข 17 Feb 24
  1. Sub-Saharan Africa faces challenges in creating successful governance systems that align with the population's needs and aspirations.
  2. Building functional and enduring states in sub-Saharan Africa may require reimagining the government structure from the ground up through inclusive conversations within communities.
  3. The ideal government model could be one that focuses on efficient administration and coordinates production processes, as seen in countries like Denmark and Singapore.
261 implied HN points โ€ข 02 Feb 24
  1. Debt-to-GDP ratio in the U.S. has fluctuated over the years, with significant changes under different administrations.
  2. The U.S. could manage its debt by matching program spending to taxes in the future, allowing it to gradually diminish.
  3. The current U.S. deficit is a concern as it exceeds the optimal level, posing a risk for the future due to political and economic factors.
99 implied HN points โ€ข 24 Feb 24
  1. Questioning beliefs in web3 technologies is valid, especially in the context of Chris Dixon's book 'Read, Write, Own'.
  2. Advocating for ownership and control of personal data on the internet, believing in the importance of owning digital tracks and controlling access to them.
  3. Suggesting that for credibility in promoting web3 technologies, there is a need for substantial investment in software infrastructure and genuine use cases rather than hyperbolic promotion.
76 implied HN points โ€ข 29 Feb 24
  1. The distribution of technological progress can be influenced by the balance of power in both markets and politics.
  2. Technologies can have both positive and negative impacts on society, so it's important to consider the distributional effects.
  3. Diverse perspectives and opinions are crucial in shaping better and more equitable technological trajectories.
215 implied HN points โ€ข 05 Feb 24
  1. The purpose of humanities in education should be more than teaching a limited view of Western literature and thought.
  2. It is valuable to provide students with a broad liberal education that includes exposure to different perspectives, even critical ones.
  3. American universities should focus on teaching true facts and how to think critically rather than implanting specific values.
123 implied HN points โ€ข 19 Feb 24
  1. In the past, social networks largely determined who you were, but in modern times, you have the power to choose your own social network and reinvent yourself.
  2. With the rise of modern economic growth after 1870, the pace of change accelerated, leading to the disappearance of many traditional social roles and the need for individuals to adapt and choose new paths.
  3. Loneliness and totalitarianism can arise from the disconnection and lack of common experience in modern societies, with anger and desperation fueling negative solidarity, leading to negative consequences.
146 implied HN points โ€ข 12 Feb 24
  1. Capital is increasingly substituting labor, affecting income inequality and job opportunities.
  2. Some New York Times reporters display lack of awareness about key policies and issues, raising questions about the purpose of journalism.
  3. The Apple Vision Pro VR headset is considered innovative but not without limitations, targeting a specific tech-savvy audience.
468 implied HN points โ€ข 31 Dec 23
  1. America is much more unequal today, especially in terms of economic class when compared to 1960.
  2. There is uncertainty around the rise in inequality numbers, with conflicting calculations from different sources.
  3. The sociology of inequality changes in America since 1960 is seen as equally important as the economic aspect.
76 implied HN points โ€ข 25 Feb 24
  1. The shift from gatherer-hunter lifestyles to farming and domestication of animals may have contributed to the emergence of enduring economic inequality.
  2. Increased civilizational complexity led to a rise in potential wealth inequalities, possibly through factors like tools, farm implements, domesticated animals, serfdom, and slavery.
  3. Exploring the dimensions of wealth acquisition and accumulation, such as tools, farmstead implements, animals, serfdom, and slavery, can help understand the expansion of possible wealth inequalities.
76 implied HN points โ€ข 25 Feb 24
  1. Branko Milanovic discusses visions of inequality, highlighting the importance of technological and business-model research and development in market economies.
  2. Shifting expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts reflect a debate about the impact of maniacal bubbles and policy near-neutrality in a balanced economy.
  3. The need for individuals to stay focused on reality outside media perceptions and the impact of lags in economic understanding discussed by Jeffrey Frankel supporting the idea that perceptions lag behind reality.
123 implied HN points โ€ข 14 Feb 24
  1. The COVID-19 depression and subsequent reopening have not generated consistent lessons for the future given its unique nature
  2. There are significant macro distortions in the current economy, including massive consumer spending shifts, supply chain disruptions, and job market imbalances
  3. Global warming continues to progress, as evidenced by alarming images and reports
161 implied HN points โ€ข 06 Feb 24
  1. The US Federal Reserve is hesitant to adjust its policy interest rate despite the economy being in balance.
  2. The Fed remains cautious about aligning rates with the neutral rate due to uncertainties in the economic outlook and inflation risks.
  3. The announcement of maintaining the federal funds rate range at 5.25-5.5% raised concerns given the already balanced US macroeconomy.