Matt’s Five Points

Matt’s Five Points is a newsletter that analyzes U.S. politics and political science with an emphasis on the Republican Party's internal dynamics, legislative procedures, and the influence of social media on political engagement. It also includes reflections on local politics, personal insights from card games, and institutional changes in electoral processes.

Republican Party Legislative Processes Political Engagement Institutional Change Social Media Local Politics Card Games

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Thoughts on Joe throwing in the towel.

499 implied HN points • 21 Jul 24

Biden stepping down from the nomination seems like a good decision given concerns about his age and abilities. This change helps avoid the risk of having someone unfit for the presidency.
The political landscape is changing fast, and Biden's exit may lead to a smoother path for Harris, who is likely to get a lot of support from the party.
It's important to remember that even if a new candidate like Harris faces challenges, the decision to move on from Biden was likely the best option for the party right now.

Twenty-two observations about American politics

419 implied HN points • 19 Jul 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Public Policy Governance Political theory

The Republican Party is likely to move away from a national abortion ban due to changing public opinions on the issue. This change could lead to policies that are more moderate and similar to those in other countries.
Many voters are concerned about Biden's age and health, which could lead to significant political shifts. There are worries that his age might hurt the Democratic Party in upcoming elections.
Getting involved in local politics can be very rewarding and impactful. Participating in community decisions can lead to real changes and is a more effective way to influence politics than just voting or donating.

You don't hate Congress. You hate losing.

319 implied HN points • 16 May 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Public Opinion Political Process Democracy

Congress is not popular, and its approval ratings are quite low, often under 20%. This means many people express frustration with it, but it often stems from deeper feelings of losing in the political system.
Losing in a democracy can feel terrible. Whether it's in Congress or at a local meeting, people often get upset when their views aren't prioritized or when they don't get their way.
Everyone is capable of feeling like losers in politics because decisions often have winners and losers. This frustration is common and can lead to heated feelings about politicians and government processes.

All politics is local politics.

279 implied HN points • 17 May 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Legislation Governance Political parties Public Policy

Politics at all levels looks similar. If you've been part of a local group making decisions, like a PTA or HOA, you can understand Congress better because the same dynamics are at play.
Everyone hates losing in a decision-making process. Whether it's about Congress or choosing a family restaurant, people dislike the feeling of not getting their way.
Members of Congress are just regular folks from your community. They're not superheroes and often deal with the same frustrations and challenges you see in local meetings.

The World Series of Poker Starts Tomorrow

219 implied HN points • 27 May 24

🎭️ Culture Gambling Games Sports Entertainment Leisure

Poker isn't just a card game; it's a gambling game that really depends on money decisions. Unlike other card games, poker's fun mostly comes from the stakes involved, not the actual cards.
No-Limit Hold'em is super popular but not ideal for casual games. It's better to play games with betting limits to keep it fun and relaxed among friends.
The poker scene has changed a lot in the past 20 years. Players today have access to sophisticated strategies and tools, making the competition tougher and more global than ever.

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Party Switch. Sorry Dad.

299 implied HN points • 17 Apr 24

🎾 Sports Hockey Playoffs Fan culture Personal Stories Sports History

The Washington Capitals made an amazing comeback to reach the playoffs after a rough season. It shows that things can turn around quickly in sports.
Watching sports changes as you get older. What used to be a huge emotional rollercoaster now feels more relaxed, except for hockey, which still brings out intense feelings.
Switching favorite teams is a strange experience for fans. It happened unexpectedly, and it feels odd to cheer against a team you once loved, especially after sharing so many memories with family.

Six Ways Being a Cardplayer Helps me Analyze Politics

199 implied HN points • 21 May 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Political strategy Campaigns Legislative Process

Understanding the rules of the game is key in both cards and politics. Just like in a card game, knowing the rules of political systems helps you make better decisions and predictions.
Political players have different goals, just like card players. It's important to recognize that not everyone is trying to win; some are in it for fun or other reasons.
Many times, outcomes in politics and card games are influenced by chance. Good players focus on making smart decisions rather than stressing about random events outside their control.

What makes a card game great?

219 implied HN points • 12 May 24

🎭️ Culture Games Hobbies Entertainment Strategy

A great card game needs meaningful strategy. Players should be able to make decisions that can really affect the outcome, making the game more engaging and exciting.
The game should be easy to learn and quick to set up. If new players can't grasp the rules in about ten minutes, they may lose interest before they even get to play.
It’s important for the game to have little to no downtime. Everyone should stay involved and be able to play continuously to keep the fun going.

The '24 Election and Institutional Change

179 implied HN points • 24 May 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Legislation Congress Political Dynamics Institutional change

Elections have a big impact on politics, not just for immediate decisions but for long-term institutional changes as well. The 2024 election will shape how Congress and the presidency work together.
Short-term politics often drive changes in political institutions. When parties gain power, they tend to prioritize their goals over the rules, leading to shifts in how power is distributed over time.
The balance of power after the 2024 elections will influence significant issues like the filibuster and how nominations are handled. Different outcomes can lead to major changes in how legislation is passed and how the government operates.

I'm writing a book about Oh Hell

199 implied HN points • 11 May 24

🎭️ Culture Games Writing Leisure Social Narrative

The author is writing a book on Oh Hell, a card game they love and play often. They want to share their passion and knowledge about the game with others.
There is no existing book on Oh Hell, unlike many other card games, which motivates the author to fill this gap in the market.
The book will mix strategy tips with personal stories about the game, showcasing its fun and competitive nature while engaging a broad audience.

You can't spell VEGAS POKER without E-V and R-A-K-E

99 implied HN points • 26 Jun 24

🎾 Sports Gambling Poker Competitions Games Events

Public poker tournaments can be tougher to profit from than home games because of the rake. The rake is a cut the casino takes, making it harder for players to win money.
Expected value (EV) is important in poker. Good players can have positive EV, while many players in public games are actually losing players due to the rake.
Starting a home poker game can be a better option for recreational players. Without the rake, more players can win, making it a more enjoyable experience.

Short bill, lots of lessons

179 implied HN points • 13 May 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Congress Legislation Political strategy Public Policy Government oversight

The Israel Support Assistance Act is a short bill that highlights how Congress can influence executive policy through budget control. Even though it might not become law, it shows how powerful Congress can be using funding restrictions.
This bill features several types of provisions, such as appropriations limitations and fencing provisions, which directly affect how the government can use allocated funds. These techniques give Congress a way to steer or block executive actions.
Even though most of the provisions may not be enforced, they're part of a strategy to make political statements and possibly create division among Democrats. It's a way for Congress members to show where they stand on issues without necessarily aiming for a law.

Some notes on the Speakership fight

619 implied HN points • 23 Oct 23

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Dynamics Political strategy

The Republican Party is facing major divisions, and support for candidates is changing rapidly. Members are feeling torn between party loyalty and personal preference.
There are many candidates for Speaker, and the primary dynamic has shifted to a more free-for-all contest. This means lesser-known candidates may have a better chance than big names.
Rules within the party are causing more problems than helping, making it hard for a candidate to get the support needed on the floor after securing a conference nomination.

At a Track Called Saratoga...

79 implied HN points • 03 Jun 24

🎾 Sports Events Culture Travel Lifestyle

Saratoga Race Course is famous for its beauty and the short racing season, making it a special spot for horse racing fans. Many people travel from far to enjoy the races and the lovely summer atmosphere.
People come to Saratoga not just to gamble, but to enjoy time with friends and family. The picnic area is a popular place where fans can relax, socialize, and watch the races without losing their spot.
Each race is an event, with fans cheering and supporting their favorite horses. The excitement in the air is something truly unique, as everyone experiences the thrill of racing together.

How much power does Speaker pro tempore McHenry have?

419 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Government Leadership Political Process

Patrick McHenry is acting as Speaker pro tempore following the vacancy of the Speaker's position. His authority is uncertain and is a topic of debate within the House.
There is no clear precedent for what powers McHenry holds, which makes it difficult to determine if he can conduct normal House business or just oversee the election of a new Speaker.
The decisions McHenry makes now could set important precedents for future Speakers pro tempore, affecting how much power they will have in similar situations.

Notes from a quiet week in the House

239 implied HN points • 09 Oct 23

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Elections Political parties Government Structure Political Analysis

The current Speaker pro tempore, McHenry, has very limited powers, mainly just to oversee the election of a new Speaker. This has been accepted by both political parties as a way to avoid major conflicts until after the election.
Even though things appear quiet in the House, it can still act without a Speaker. The House's authority allows it to pass legislation, meaning it's not truly inactive; it's just choosing not to move forward right now.
The upcoming Speakership election could be quite contentious, depending on how much unity the Republican party can maintain. The party's internal discussions will greatly affect how the election plays out on the House floor.

Procedural Notes on the Motion to Vacate

179 implied HN points • 02 Oct 23

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Process Legislation Congress Elections Political parties

A motion to vacate the Speaker's position can happen quickly if done as a Question of Privilege. This allows immediate discussion, unlike a regular resolution.
If the Chair decides the motion is valid, it will lead to a structured debate with set time limits for both sides. If no objections succeed, they will debate it openly.
If the resolution is passed, the Speakership becomes vacant immediately, but that doesn't mean a new Speaker is chosen right away. The House can decide to address other matters first.

Book Review: On The Edge, Nate Silver

8 HN points • 02 Aug 24

📚 Literature Book Reviews Authors Literary Analysis Society Cultural Commentary

Nate Silver's new book talks about people who think differently about risk. Some see it as something to avoid, while others embrace it and try to win big, especially in areas like gambling and tech.
The book highlights two groups: the 'Riverians,' who love taking risks and making calculated bets, and the 'Villagers,' who prefer safe choices and stability. These different mindsets clash in various fields like politics and business.
Silver also raises concerns about how risk-taking can lead to serious problems, especially with things like AI development. He asks if focusing too much on maximizing expected value might overlook important human issues.

Should the GOP conference change its rules?

119 implied HN points • 11 Oct 23

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Legislation Governance Political strategy

The GOP conference has rules for electing a nominee for Speaker, but those rules may not ensure that the nominee has enough support for a successful vote on the House floor.
There are discussions about changing the rules so that a candidate must gather enough support in the conference to match the votes needed on the floor, which could prevent messy public fights.
Candidates' preferences about changing the rules largely depend on whether they believe they have enough support; those confident in their chances prefer current rules, while those who don’t may favor changes.

Why I’m Taking A Break From Twitter

459 implied HN points • 03 Mar 22

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Social media Political engagement Political theory Local Politics Cognitive Bias

Social media, like Twitter, can make people more like 'spectators' of politics rather than active participants. Many focus on national issues and forget about local politics that also matter.
People tend to only seek out information that supports what they already believe, which can limit real thinking and understanding. This 'soldier mindset' can be reinforced by the way social media works.
Multitasking caused by constant notifications from apps can reduce our ability to focus and really think about things deeply. Setting aside time to read and write can help bring back that focus.

I’m ditching Twitter for Lent

359 implied HN points • 01 Mar 22

🎭️ Culture Social media Lent Writing Personal Growth Public Discourse

Taking a break from Twitter can help improve your thinking and writing skills. It's good to step away from social media sometimes.
The writer wants to focus on topics they know best, like Congress and card games. It's better to stick to what you really understand.
Leaving social media could be seen as a sacrifice or an act of service. It's a way to reset and find clarity in your thoughts.

J-3 offsuit and the Monster Ballads Poker Game

179 implied HN points • 10 Dec 22

🎭️ Culture Games Relationships Leisure Memories Traditions

Home poker games can turn into special experiences filled with laughter and friendship. They create memories that last beyond the games themselves.
The atmosphere and community in a poker game often matter more than the actual cards being played. Serious conversations can happen in a fun, relaxed setting.
Even if a poker game ends or changes, the bonds formed and the memories created can be revisited and celebrated years later.

The game theory of the Republican speakership crisis

39 implied HN points • 18 Oct 23

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Congress Party Dynamics Leadership Coalition building

The Republican Party is struggling to choose a Speaker because there are deep divisions within the party. This makes it hard to find a candidate everyone can support.
The Freedom Caucus, a group of more extreme Republicans, has a lot of power and has been blocking proposals from the GOP leadership. They are willing to play hardball, which can hurt the party's ability to govern.
Finding a new Speaker isn't just about winning a vote; it's about forming a strong coalition. Without a stable majority backing, the Speaker's power is weak, making it tough for any leader to move forward effectively.

What is the point of confirmation hearings?

159 implied HN points • 23 Mar 22

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Congress Judiciary Elections Public Policy

Confirmation hearings are mostly for show, not for real information gathering. Senators often already know how they'll vote and use these sessions to make public statements.
The main goal of these hearings is to shape public opinion. Politicians want their actions and decisions to be seen in the best light, regardless of the actual content of the discussions.
Even if they seem pointless, these hearings can have benefits. They can raise awareness of issues, communicate party positions, and help the public understand the political process better.

Legislative procedure isn't really hard

139 implied HN points • 08 Mar 22

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Congress Decision-making Public Policy

Legislative procedures may seem confusing with all the jargon, but they're similar to everyday group decisions like a family deciding where to eat. Understanding the basic concepts makes it easier to follow.
Procedures are necessary to prevent chaos in decision-making, as they help manage how discussions happen and ensure everyone's voice can be heard without fights breaking out.
At their core, legislative processes boil down to three main questions: what to discuss, how long to discuss it, and how to change proposals. This structure is similar across many group settings, not just Congress.

Once upon a time, today was important

119 implied HN points • 04 Mar 22

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Founding Fathers Constitution Political History Legislative Process

March 4th used to be a big day in American politics when new Congress members and the President would take office. This changed in 1933 with the 20th amendment, which set new start dates for their terms.
The Founding Fathers made mistakes in planning the political calendar, leading to issues like 'lame duck' sessions where old lawmakers couldn't make strong decisions. This created problems during critical times in history.
The 20th amendment fixed some of these issues, allowing Congress to start its terms earlier and better aligning the start of the President's term with the new Congress. This helped avoid confusion and improved government efficiency.

House Omnibus Procedural Notes

79 implied HN points • 14 Mar 22

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Congress Voting Political strategy

The omnibus bill was huge, over 2,700 pages, and combined many important financial matters, including aid for Ukraine. This made it easier to pass popular and less popular items together.
To ensure the government stayed open, the House passed a short-term budget extension along with the omnibus, just in case it faced delays in the Senate.
The House used a previous Senate-passed bill to speed up the approval process for the omnibus, avoiding a lengthy debate and making it easier to vote on quickly.

My notes for talking to reporters about Speakership elections

39 implied HN points • 16 Dec 22

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Legislation Government Political History

The House can make its own rules for how it operates. They don't have to stick to past practices if a majority wants to change things.
On the first day of Congress, they follow a specific order of events, starting with a prayer and then moving on to electing the Speaker.
If the Speaker isn't elected on the first try, the process can continue with multiple votes, allowing members to propose other motions and ideas in the meantime.

Wanna run 50,000 election sims in 2 seconds?

19 implied HN points • 04 Nov 22

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Forecasting Political Science Data Analysis Public Opinion

You can run a quick election simulation by using an Excel sheet. Just change the win probabilities for each state and the sim does the math for you in about 2 seconds.
Basic election modeling isn't as hard as it sounds. You can easily create your own model with some data and a few calculations to forecast election outcomes.
Strong, accurate models take more work and understanding, but anyone can start trying their hand at it. It can be enjoyable to explore different scenarios with the data.

Everything you always wanted to know about a government shutdown

19 implied HN points • 02 Dec 21

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Legislation Public Policy Constitutional Law

A government shutdown happens when Congress doesn't pass new budget laws, leading to a funding gap. This means the government can't spend money on things like salaries and supplies.
During a shutdown, not all federal workers stop working. Some are deemed essential and continue their duties, but they won't get paid until the budget is approved.
Shutdowns can affect different parts of the government differently. Some agencies might keep operating if they have non-appropriated funds, while others come to a halt.

Congress in crisis is Congress at work

19 implied HN points • 03 Apr 20

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Government Crisis Management Public Health Bipartisanship

Congress can act quickly during a crisis, as shown by the rapid passing of major relief bills in response to the pandemic. Bipartisan support helped get these important laws through both chambers.
Even in urgent situations, Congress's decision-making can be messy. Public disagreements and pushing for different interests are part of how it works, ensuring various opinions and local needs are considered.
The coronavirus posed unique challenges for Congress, making in-person meetings risky. Discussions have started about allowing remote voting to keep the legislative process going while keeping everyone safe.

On the Properties of Great Card Games

19 implied HN points • 16 Sep 11

🎭️ Culture Games Entertainment Social Interaction Leisure Hobbies

Great card games need meaningful and complex strategies. The best games allow skilled players to win more often while still giving everyone a chance to have fun.
Rule simplicity is crucial. If a game takes too long to learn, it's not likely to be played often, so the rules should be easy to understand quickly.
Games should have low downtime and be scalable for different numbers of players. Everyone should be involved and able to play, and the game should work well whether you have three or seven players.

Deliberations

0 implied HN points • 05 Aug 10

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Senate House Partisanship

Deliberation in politics is not just about talking; it's about finding and voting on the best ideas. When someone proposes a better idea, it should win if most agree.
The Senate allows for more input on ideas compared to the House, which often restricts amendments and discussion. This can lead to a lack of representation for popular ideas in the House.
Both the Senate and House have their issues: the Senate can be blocked by a minority, while the House often silences majority support. Finding a balance between the two is challenging but important.

How valuable is a great kicker?

0 implied HN points • 01 Sep 10

🎾 Sports Football Players Statistics Coaching Game Theory

A great kicker can significantly change the dynamics of a high school football team, especially if they can consistently make long field goals.
In college and NFL, the value of a kicker varies, but even a guaranteed 3 points can make a big impact on a team's competitiveness.
Kickers don't get paid like other star players because there isn’t a huge difference between the top and average kickers, yet having a top performer can still be crucial to winning games.

Put Your Hands Together

0 implied HN points • 12 Dec 11

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Debates Candidates Political parties

Audience reactions, like applause and cheers, play a big role in how candidates are perceived. These reactions can influence people's opinions about candidates during debates.
The timing of events, like the caucuses, is important as candidates make their final pitches to voters. It's all about making a strong impression right before voting begins.
Understanding voter behavior is key in primaries. Factors like emotional reactions from the audience can sometimes matter more than typical metrics.

Five Points Episode 3 - Nominations Politics

0 implied HN points • 28 Sep 10

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Party Dynamics

If there are 50 votes for a Supreme Court justice, they will almost always be confirmed and can't be easily stopped by Democrats.
Electorally vulnerable senators are likely to stick with their party line when it comes to confirmations, ensuring those 50 votes will be there.
Political parties aim for more than just winning seats; they have broader goals that guide their strategies.

Research Note: 2011 House and Senate Calendars

0 implied HN points • 08 Dec 10

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Congress Legislation Voting

The House has specific days for expected votes, marked in brown. This helps people understand when important decisions will be made.
Days without expected votes are marked in white, indicating when the House will not be voting.
The Senate calendar includes recess days, marked in red, showing when they will not be in session. It's important to know to track legislative activity.

Link'in Park

0 implied HN points • 16 Dec 11

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Voting behavior Campaign strategies Political Commentary

GOP primary voters may not prioritize electability as much as expected. It's important to focus on what actually matters to them.
Online piracy is seen by some as a theft issue, but there are discussions about its impact on the economy and how we view copyright.
Recent political decisions, like indefinite detention laws, can lead to disappointment among citizens who care about civil rights and the Constitution.

FIVE POINTS: A Recess is Not a Vacation

0 implied HN points • 11 Aug 17

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls Elections Congress Political Ideology Political Behavior

Polls might not reflect true public sentiment. Many survey responses depend on how questions are asked and the current political context, which can lead to misleading conclusions.
Members of Congress often work just as hard back in their districts as they do in Washington. They use this time to explain their votes and engage with voters, which can be very demanding.
Congress is struggling with staffing and resources. Many staff members feel overwhelmed, which impacts Congress's ability to effectively do its job and maintain a check on the presidency.

On Through the Looking Glass

0 implied HN points • 21 Mar 11

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy War Public Discourse Ideology

Neo-conservatism and humanitarian intervention seem to have merged into something called neo-humanitarianism, which is confusing.
There's a growing public desensitization to war, as fewer people seem to care about military conflicts like they used to.
The speaker believes in a more peaceful foreign policy approach, similar to Quaker Pacifism, and finds some comfort in the idea that others may also be moving toward realism in foreign policy.