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THE SHOW NOTES: Stenographers Revolt, Kamala's Employment Data Problem, & What Is Happening at CNN?

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 879 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Media Campaigns Public Policy
  1. Job growth in the U.S. has slowed down a lot, with only 12,000 new jobs added in October. This is a big drop from what experts expected, which could hurt the Harris campaign's message about the economy.
  2. The White House changed a transcript to remove comments made by President Biden that insulted Trump supporters. This has caused a disagreement with the federal stenographers' office over transcript accuracy.
  3. CNN faced backlash for allowing a guest to mock JD Vance's family struggles during a discussion. This was seen as disrespectful, given the serious background of addiction in his family.

Like 2008—but Better

Magic + Loss • 477 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Public Opinion Political trends Democratic Party Campaigns
  1. Democratic excitement for the upcoming election is higher than it was in 2008, with 77% of Democrats feeling enthusiastic. This shows a strong positive shift compared to the 50% enthusiastic in 2016.
  2. The energy and enthusiasm can be seen in rallies and public engagement, indicating that this election could be pivotal.
  3. Experts believe this enthusiasm for the election is significant and might play a crucial role in the outcome.

Links For November 2024

Astral Codex Ten • 12664 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Legislation Political parties Public Opinion Campaigns
  1. Ancient Chinese customs included burying people with passports for the afterlife. This practice was believed to help them gain entry into the underworld.
  2. A new drug for schizophrenia is approved, showing promise for fewer side effects and better treatment for negative symptoms, but it has a high starting price.
  3. Recent studies show that teaching experience may not be as important as previously thought, as using less experienced teachers can lead to worse student performance.

Garbage In/Garbage Out

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2138 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Campaigns Political parties Media
  1. The race is very close, and polls show a shift towards Trump, even if some overall numbers may be off. It's important to pay attention to these trends as Election Day nears.
  2. Biden's remark about Trump supporters being 'garbage' could be more damaging to his campaign than a comedian's joke about Puerto Rico, possibly alienating undecided voters.
  3. Early voting numbers for Democrats are concerning, especially among black voters in key states. Republicans are doing better in early voting than in previous elections.

THE SHOW NOTES: The Garbage Man, Van Jones Blasts Progressives, & 60 Million Votes

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 879 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Political Commentary Voter Turnout Government Policies
  1. Donald Trump is using humor to respond to Joe Biden's comments about his supporters, even campaigning in a garbage truck. It's a way to turn the insult into a joke.
  2. Van Jones is criticizing progressives who support Hamas, highlighting divisions within political movements. His remarks show a need for clearer stances on complex issues.
  3. Early voting is already high with around 60 million Americans having voted, but this doesn't guarantee the outcome of the election. It's a reminder that early numbers can be misleading.
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Why Trump's racist rally at the Garden is a turning point in the campaign

The Signorile Report • 2917 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Racism Media Public Opinion
  1. Trump held a rally where he and his supporters made a lot of racist and hateful comments. This event was different from his usual rallies and it shocked many people.
  2. The media reacted strongly to the rally, with major outlets labeling it explicitly as 'racist' for the first time. This attention might change how some voters view Trump as his comments may have crossed a line.
  3. There seems to be tension within Trump's campaign because of the backlash. Some strategists are worried about how these comments could affect votes, especially in states with large Latino and Puerto Rican populations.

Team Technocrat vs. Team Woke

In My Tribe • 653 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Parties Voters Campaigns Political theory
  1. The Democratic Party has two main groups: Team Technocrat and Team Woke. Both seem to be trying to gain influence after the recent election.
  2. The outcome of the election is being interpreted differently, and it's not a clear win or loss for either faction. Events leading up to the 2028 election could change everything.
  3. Swing voters might not see certain candidates, like Kamala Harris, as legitimate. They tend to prefer candidates who seem more credible and have campaigned actively.

Harris Could Win. So Could Trump.

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2437 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political strategy Voter Turnout Campaigns Party Dynamics
  1. Kamala Harris has a real chance to win if women voters turn out in higher numbers, especially in swing states. Early voting trends show women are leading in participation.
  2. The Republicans are worried about voter turnout, especially among women and Black voters. Both parties need to focus on getting their supporters to the polls.
  3. Trump's controversial jokes and radical comments could harm his campaign. The media is likely to highlight these issues, which might discourage some potential voters.

Hey Democrats, This Is Why You’re Losing Young Men

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1758 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Voting Political strategy Voter Demographics
  1. Democrats struggle to connect with young male voters, which could impact upcoming elections.
  2. Some recent campaign ads have missed the mark, focusing on inappropriate and exaggerated themes.
  3. There is a belief among some Democrats that young men care only about sexual issues rather than economic and social concerns.

Calling It

Dana Blankenhorn: Facing the Future • 138 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Candidates Voting Policy
  1. Democrats have strong advantages for the upcoming election, including a solid candidate and effective campaign strategy. This suggests they are in a good position to win.
  2. Polls indicate that Democratic candidates are performing well, which could mean the overall race is more favorable for them than it appears.
  3. The strong economy and recent political events are likely to boost Democratic support, indicating a positive outlook for democracy in the upcoming elections.

THE SHOW NOTES: Nazi Republicans, 50 Million Votes, & Kamala Cringe

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1159 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Media Campaigns Political parties Public Opinion
  1. CNN has started using severe language, calling Republicans Nazis, linking them to a negative history. This creates a strong division in political discussions.
  2. 50 million Americans have voted early, showing a high level of engagement in the upcoming election. This could indicate strong turnout on election day.
  3. Kamala Harris's campaign has faced challenges, with her waiting until the last minute to showcase key moments. Her approach seems less appealing compared to other candidates.

Your Emotional Support Historian

Campaign Trails • 4844 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Predictions Polling Political History Campaigns
  1. Historians are trained to look back at events, not predict the future. They often find it tricky to offer reassurance during election seasons.
  2. Making confident predictions can lead to embarrassment, as history shows many past predictions were wrong. This causes historians to be cautious when discussing possible outcomes.
  3. Predictions about elections are often unreliable and should be taken with a grain of salt. The best approach is to focus on getting people to vote rather than getting caught up in the predictions.

Four reasons not to vote for Trump, and four reasons to vote for Harris

Noahpinion • 20235 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Political parties Candidates Campaigns
  1. Voting for Trump might increase threats from foreign adversaries like China and Russia. Many believe a leader needs to focus on these global challenges instead of internal conflicts.
  2. The people who tend to work with Trump often end up leaving or criticizing him. This raises concern about who would truly be in charge of the country if he were elected again.
  3. Kamala Harris is expected to continue the policies that have helped improve the economy recently, and she brings a more optimistic and patriotic tone to the Democratic party.

Harris's Bold Miscalculation

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 3397 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Political parties Public Opinion Legislation
  1. Democrats may have misjudged the election by not toning down their extreme views. They felt they could win just by being anti-Trump without appealing to moderates.
  2. Kamala Harris has stuck to her bold positions on issues like abortion and trans rights, which some believe could hurt her in the election. Instead of showing flexibility, she's chosen to dig in her heels.
  3. There are Republicans who oppose both candidates but feel that after Trump, those who supported Harris will have no influence in the GOP. They think Harris's supporters will be left out of future party decisions.

This Election, Prepare for the Unexpected

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe • 3348 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Law Political strategy Constitution Campaigns
  1. The outcome of the upcoming presidential election could be very unpredictable. Even if a candidate seems to win, a lot could still happen before they take office.
  2. There are serious questions about the rules governing how votes are counted and certified. Changes have been made to laws, but misunderstandings and disputes could complicate the process.
  3. The possibility of legal challenges is high if there's a conflict after the election. Various interpretations of laws can lead to confusion about who is actually president if issues arise.

🚨 BREAKING: Harris Campaign Gives Up. Turns to Shoring Up Congress.

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 3557 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Legislation Parties Political strategy
  1. Kamala Harris's campaign is shifting focus from trying to win the White House to supporting Congress candidates in red states.
  2. This change shows that her team is acknowledging a likely loss in the presidential race and is instead working to boost House and Senate seats.
  3. This strategy mirrors what Bob Dole did in 1996 when he realized he would lose and turned his efforts to encourage Republican turnout in important districts.

Here’s Where I Think the Race Stands

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 4056 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Polls Public Opinion Political Analysis
  1. Trump appears to be enjoying the campaign more than Harris, which might give him an edge in the race. People respond to candidates who look relatable and fun.
  2. Polls show a growing support for Trump, suggesting he could win the Electoral College if the election were today. Democrats seem to be worried about their campaign's effectiveness.
  3. Voters are more concerned about their everyday economic struggles than the political drama surrounding Trump. Many feel the current administration isn't helping their financial situation.

Election Countdown: The Day After.

Breaking the News • 2347 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Voter Behavior Political Analysis Government
  1. Voters had several years to see Donald Trump's actions and behavior clearly, and they still chose him again. This shows a significant change in how the public views him compared to past elections.
  2. Kamala Harris ran a strong campaign with few mistakes, while Trump had a rocky one. Despite this, the election outcome favored Trump, which highlights a surprising shift in voter priorities.
  3. Two experts who believed Americans would make a rational choice were proven wrong. This suggests that the election results reflect a deeper understanding of current American values and beliefs.

SHOW NOTES: We Have Some Trends

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1498 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political trends Campaigns Polls
  1. Early voting trends are showing an unusual pattern in several states, like Nevada where Republicans are voting more than Democrats. This could indicate a shift in voter sentiment ahead of the election.
  2. In Georgia, a significant number of early voters didn't participate in the last two elections, and there’s a noticeable decline in black voters compared to previous years. This change could affect overall turnout and results.
  3. Polling shows the race is tight, with a sense of momentum building for Trump. However, the election outcome still depends on actual voter turnout, and anything can happen between now and then.

No better room

benn.substack • 1815 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Political Analysis Voter Behavior Political strategy
  1. The team had multiple backup plans ready for the election night, but they ended up not needing them at all because the outcome was clear very quickly. This shows how sometimes, despite all the preparation, things can turn out differently than expected.
  2. Even though they lost the election, the atmosphere in the room was charged with intensity and urgency as they worked together to process data. The experience was thrilling, highlighting the importance of being actively involved even when facing tough situations.
  3. The hardworking people behind the scenes may not get recognition for their efforts after a loss, but their commitment and dedication are valuable. They might be unnoticed now, but their hard work is still important for future efforts.

Strange Bedfellows

Campaign Trails • 4625 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Political strategy Political History Partisanship
  1. People from different political backgrounds can still agree on important issues, like protecting democracy. It's curious to see alliances form where you least expect them.
  2. Supporting a candidate like Kamala Harris doesn't mean changing beliefs or plans. It's more about attracting voters from all sides for a better chance at winning an election.
  3. Historically, reaching out to people from the opposing party has led to successful campaigns. Winning broad support is key to pushing forward important policies after elections.

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

Silver Bulletin • 9424 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Forecasting Political Analysis Campaigns
  1. In the final simulations for the election, Kamala Harris won slightly more than half of the time, but Donald Trump also had a strong chance, especially with potential ties in the Electoral College.
  2. The modeling approach adjusts for different polling methods and emphasizes reliable polls, aiming to offer a clearer picture of who might win the election.
  3. There’s still uncertainty in elections, and surprising outcomes can happen, so many factors could influence the final results.

Election Update 4: Hints of Panic and Rage, But It's Still Early

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 7521 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Political News Polls Public Opinion
  1. Election night can be stressful and filled with mixed emotions for news anchors as they report on unfolding results. They try to keep things light but can still feel the pressure of the outcome.
  2. While some early results seem to favor one candidate, it's still too early to draw hard conclusions. The dynamics of voting can change as more votes come in.
  3. It's important to stay calm and not panic no matter the initial news. The election process has many twists and turns that can change the situation quickly.

Election Update 6: The Puckering

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 7102 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Campaigns Voter Behavior Party Dynamics
  1. Democrats are feeling anxious as key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin show Trump leading. It's crucial for Harris to win all three to take the presidency.
  2. Many Democrats may have overlooked voter sentiments, which can lead to big consequences. There's a sense that the Democratic Party needs to reconnect with American voters.
  3. This election isn't just about who wins but also reflects broader public opinions on political messaging. The results could spark major changes in media and party leadership.

Trump's a Rapist

Magic + Loss • 2147 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Political Opinions Criminal Justice Public Safety
  1. Trump has been legally labeled a rapist by a jury and a judge. This means he is held accountable for his actions.
  2. Instead of overwhelming voters with many reasons not to support Trump, focusing on his status as a rapist is a clear and straightforward argument.
  3. Reiterating that Trump is a rapist can be an effective way to persuade others against voting for him, as it addresses a serious issue directly.

About Last Night

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2877 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns Candidates Interviews Public Opinion Media
  1. Kamala Harris faced tough questions in her interview but struggled to connect with the voters she needs most. Her answers didn't reassure those unsure about voting for her.
  2. The interview highlighted a disconnect between Harris and potential Republican voters who dislike Trump. She needed to show she understands these voters, but she missed that chance.
  3. While some praised Harris for going on Fox News, her performance was seen as lacking. Critics from the left suggest she didn't meet expectations for this important moment.

Cheap Dates

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1338 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Political parties Political Commentary Public Opinion
  1. Some Republicans who dislike Trump are unintentionally helping him gain support. Their strong opposition makes it easier for Trump to rally his base.
  2. Kamala Harris's campaign did not feel the need to change or soften its views because of the intense dislike for Trump. They relied on attacking rather than convincing people.
  3. A group of former Republicans believes they know better than others and are frustrated when people challenge their views. This attitude could contribute to Trump's return.

SHOW NOTES: Bullies, Authoritarians, and French Fries

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1278 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Polling Political Commentary Party Dynamics
  1. Kamala Harris is struggling to connect with voters, especially Black voters in Georgia, who feel she lacks relatable experience. Many are undecided and may not vote at all.
  2. There's a growing sense among Democrats that they might lose the election, with signs of weakening support for Harris. Their current tactics seem to rely more on shaming than persuasion.
  3. Voter turnout patterns indicate that less engaged voters might be supporting Trump, which poses a challenge for pollsters trying to predict the election outcome.

The Saturday Read: Mere political games

The Saturday Read • 499 implied HN points • 26 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Political strategy Campaigns Policy
  1. Labour's ties to American politics can be problematic, like when they were accused of interfering in the US elections. This shows how political games often cross borders and create complications.
  2. Alexei Navalny's memoir reveals his dark humor and predictions about his fate under the Kremlin. It's a powerful reminder of the risks dissidents face for speaking out.
  3. Kamala Harris's campaign struggled because she had little time to connect with voters and build support. This suggests that sometimes, issues go deeper than the candidate's abilities.

SHOW NOTES: They, Them, and You; Feminine Pee Squatters; Leaks; and Fries

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1179 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Polls Political parties National Security
  1. Trump's campaign messages resonate with voters, particularly on cultural issues, while Democrats struggle to connect with certain demographics like men and minorities.
  2. The recent leaks of classified information from the Biden-Harris administration raise serious concerns about national security and the integrity of intelligence operations.
  3. Kamala Harris's campaign appears ineffective as she distances herself from traditional voter outreach and relies on celebrity endorsements rather than genuine connection with the public.

Delta Is Ready When You Are, Democrats

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2697 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Campaigns Polls Voter Engagement
  1. Many Democrats are starting to feel nervous about the upcoming election. They think Trump might have a better chance of winning than before.
  2. There are worries that the Democrats are not connecting well with Black and Latino voters, especially younger men. This could be a big problem in the election.
  3. Some Democrats believe their campaign strategies have not been effective. They think they may have waited too long to focus on important issues that matter to voters.

Trump's vibes-driven victory narrative crashes and burns

The Signorile Report • 2398 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Polling Media Political Analysis
  1. Recent polls show that Trump is not leading as he claimed, with Harris actually holding a slight lead in important voter groups. This means his narrative of an easy victory is not supported by the data.
  2. Trump's recent public appearances and behavior have raised concerns about his fitness for office. Harris is effectively highlighting these issues, contrasting her own active campaigning with Trump's evasiveness.
  3. Harris is showing strong leadership by engaging with multiple media outlets and audiences. This approach seems to resonate more with voters, while Trump's awkward town hall meetings are backfiring.

The Democrat Witness Protection Program

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1938 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Political parties Political strategy Voter Engagement
  1. Major Democratic figures like the Obamas and Clintons are noticeably absent from the campaign trail, raising questions about their support for the party.
  2. Donald Trump's campaigning efforts in key areas might boost Republican turnout, especially since personal visits often energize voters.
  3. Kamala Harris is struggling to connect with voters and lacks the backing of prominent Democrats, which could hurt her chances in the election.

Does Kamala Harris Want To Win?

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1518 implied HN points • 12 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Campaigns Political strategy Public Opinion
  1. Kamala Harris's campaign schedule is not what you'd expect from someone who wants to win a presidential election. She's not doing enough events in key areas.
  2. Donald Trump is using a smart strategy by focusing on important issues that matter to everyday voters. This could help him gain more political power.
  3. The Harris team may not fully realize how serious the competition is against Trump. They need to step up their game to stay relevant.

Lessons from Kamalageddon

Taipology • 63 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Campaigns Parties Voter trends
  1. Candidates should focus on being genuinely talented rather than just fitting a diversity quota. Strong candidates tend to perform better in elections.
  2. Engaging with potential allies is crucial. Democrats should reach out to those who can help, instead of pushing them away over strict political stances.
  3. In today's media world, being authentic and relatable is more important than traditional campaign methods. New approaches are needed to connect with voters.

Happenings in Pennsylvania! Latest Numbers and Trends

COVID Reason • 456 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter trends Party Dynamics Polling Campaigns
  1. Voter registrations in Pennsylvania are changing, with more Democrats switching to the Republican Party. This shift can impact the elections in a big way.
  2. Early voting trends show that Republicans have greatly increased their early turnout compared to previous elections, while Democrats' early voting is down. This could change who wins in the state.
  3. Polls indicate a tight race for the 2024 election in Pennsylvania, with both parties needing to work hard to win over voters as Election Day gets closer.

Kamala Is Losing At the Moment

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1978 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Candidates Public Opinion Political strategy
  1. Kamala Harris is struggling in her campaign against Trump even though many Americans dislike him. Being tied with him is not a good sign for her as the presumed incumbent.
  2. Harris is focusing on safe topics and friendly interviews, while Trump is actively engaging with voters on hot issues like inflation and housing costs. This could lead to problems for her in gaining support.
  3. Democratic leaders have doubts about Harris's ability to win and have discussed the possibility of Biden needing to step down. Harris's past decisions and strategy may not resonate well with voters right now.