The hottest Campaigns Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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"Your Word Is Your Bond", What It Means.

Points And Figures • 479 implied HN points • 25 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Honesty and personal accountability are core to managing money; if you don’t stand behind your decisions, you lose trust and face real consequences.
  2. Public finance roles like Treasurer require proven experience, expertise, and transparency, so voters should prefer candidates who have actually managed money.
  3. Trustworthy officials sustain public confidence and shape how effectively government works, so who holds the office matters for protecting taxpayers and shared values.

THE SHOW NOTES: Stenographers Revolt, Kamala's Employment Data Problem, & What Is Happening at CNN?

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 879 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Job growth in the U.S. has slowed down a lot, with only 12,000 new jobs added in October. This is a big drop from what experts expected, which could hurt the Harris campaign's message about the economy.
  2. The White House changed a transcript to remove comments made by President Biden that insulted Trump supporters. This has caused a disagreement with the federal stenographers' office over transcript accuracy.
  3. CNN faced backlash for allowing a guest to mock JD Vance's family struggles during a discussion. This was seen as disrespectful, given the serious background of addiction in his family.

SBSQ #30: Will liberals turn against sports betting?

Silver Bulletin • 293 implied HN points • 23 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. He doesn’t incorporate prediction market prices into his models because he wants to preserve an independent perspective and avoid pre-diluting or effectively betting against his own forecasts.
  2. Prediction market inputs create technical problems — they can cause recursion and feedback loops and are highly correlated with existing signals, which makes models unstable and hard to fit robustly.
  3. Sports betting is drawing bipartisan backlash, with lawmakers and public figures pushing restrictions and many people annoyed by the ads and industry influence, signaling potential political momentum for regulation.

Like 2008—but Better

Magic + Loss • 477 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Democratic excitement for the upcoming election is higher than it was in 2008, with 77% of Democrats feeling enthusiastic. This shows a strong positive shift compared to the 50% enthusiastic in 2016.
  2. The energy and enthusiasm can be seen in rallies and public engagement, indicating that this election could be pivotal.
  3. Experts believe this enthusiasm for the election is significant and might play a crucial role in the outcome.

Garbage In/Garbage Out

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2138 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. The race is very close, and polls show a shift towards Trump, even if some overall numbers may be off. It's important to pay attention to these trends as Election Day nears.
  2. Biden's remark about Trump supporters being 'garbage' could be more damaging to his campaign than a comedian's joke about Puerto Rico, possibly alienating undecided voters.
  3. Early voting numbers for Democrats are concerning, especially among black voters in key states. Republicans are doing better in early voting than in previous elections.
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THE SHOW NOTES: The Garbage Man, Van Jones Blasts Progressives, & 60 Million Votes

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 879 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Donald Trump is using humor to respond to Joe Biden's comments about his supporters, even campaigning in a garbage truck. It's a way to turn the insult into a joke.
  2. Van Jones is criticizing progressives who support Hamas, highlighting divisions within political movements. His remarks show a need for clearer stances on complex issues.
  3. Early voting is already high with around 60 million Americans having voted, but this doesn't guarantee the outcome of the election. It's a reminder that early numbers can be misleading.

Why Trump's racist rally at the Garden is a turning point in the campaign

The Signorile Report • 2917 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Trump held a rally where he and his supporters made a lot of racist and hateful comments. This event was different from his usual rallies and it shocked many people.
  2. The media reacted strongly to the rally, with major outlets labeling it explicitly as 'racist' for the first time. This attention might change how some voters view Trump as his comments may have crossed a line.
  3. There seems to be tension within Trump's campaign because of the backlash. Some strategists are worried about how these comments could affect votes, especially in states with large Latino and Puerto Rican populations.

You Can’t Groom an Adult

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 806 implied HN points • 20 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. A woman publicly accused Daniel Biss of being a groomer, saying they had an inappropriate relationship when she was a 20-year-old undergraduate and he was 26.
  2. The piece stresses that the alleged relationship did not involve a minor, coercion, rape, or even sexual intercourse, suggesting it falls short of the worst forms of abuse usually associated with grooming.
  3. Because the claim surfaced just after Biss won a high-profile primary and the accuser has political ties, the allegation looks like it could be an opportunistic political hit rather than a clear-cut ethical or legal violation.

Harris Could Win. So Could Trump.

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2437 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Kamala Harris has a real chance to win if women voters turn out in higher numbers, especially in swing states. Early voting trends show women are leading in participation.
  2. The Republicans are worried about voter turnout, especially among women and Black voters. Both parties need to focus on getting their supporters to the polls.
  3. Trump's controversial jokes and radical comments could harm his campaign. The media is likely to highlight these issues, which might discourage some potential voters.

Calling It

Dana Blankenhorn: Facing the Future • 138 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Democrats have strong advantages for the upcoming election, including a solid candidate and effective campaign strategy. This suggests they are in a good position to win.
  2. Polls indicate that Democratic candidates are performing well, which could mean the overall race is more favorable for them than it appears.
  3. The strong economy and recent political events are likely to boost Democratic support, indicating a positive outlook for democracy in the upcoming elections.

THE SHOW NOTES: Nazi Republicans, 50 Million Votes, & Kamala Cringe

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1159 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. CNN has started using severe language, calling Republicans Nazis, linking them to a negative history. This creates a strong division in political discussions.
  2. 50 million Americans have voted early, showing a high level of engagement in the upcoming election. This could indicate strong turnout on election day.
  3. Kamala Harris's campaign has faced challenges, with her waiting until the last minute to showcase key moments. Her approach seems less appealing compared to other candidates.

Your Emotional Support Historian

Campaign Trails • 4844 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Historians are trained to look back at events, not predict the future. They often find it tricky to offer reassurance during election seasons.
  2. Making confident predictions can lead to embarrassment, as history shows many past predictions were wrong. This causes historians to be cautious when discussing possible outcomes.
  3. Predictions about elections are often unreliable and should be taken with a grain of salt. The best approach is to focus on getting people to vote rather than getting caught up in the predictions.

Harris's Bold Miscalculation

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 3397 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Democrats may have misjudged the election by not toning down their extreme views. They felt they could win just by being anti-Trump without appealing to moderates.
  2. Kamala Harris has stuck to her bold positions on issues like abortion and trans rights, which some believe could hurt her in the election. Instead of showing flexibility, she's chosen to dig in her heels.
  3. There are Republicans who oppose both candidates but feel that after Trump, those who supported Harris will have no influence in the GOP. They think Harris's supporters will be left out of future party decisions.

🚨 BREAKING: Harris Campaign Gives Up. Turns to Shoring Up Congress.

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 3557 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Kamala Harris's campaign is shifting focus from trying to win the White House to supporting Congress candidates in red states.
  2. This change shows that her team is acknowledging a likely loss in the presidential race and is instead working to boost House and Senate seats.
  3. This strategy mirrors what Bob Dole did in 1996 when he realized he would lose and turned his efforts to encourage Republican turnout in important districts.

Here’s Where I Think the Race Stands

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 4056 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Trump appears to be enjoying the campaign more than Harris, which might give him an edge in the race. People respond to candidates who look relatable and fun.
  2. Polls show a growing support for Trump, suggesting he could win the Electoral College if the election were today. Democrats seem to be worried about their campaign's effectiveness.
  3. Voters are more concerned about their everyday economic struggles than the political drama surrounding Trump. Many feel the current administration isn't helping their financial situation.

SHOW NOTES: We Have Some Trends

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1498 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Early voting trends are showing an unusual pattern in several states, like Nevada where Republicans are voting more than Democrats. This could indicate a shift in voter sentiment ahead of the election.
  2. In Georgia, a significant number of early voters didn't participate in the last two elections, and there’s a noticeable decline in black voters compared to previous years. This change could affect overall turnout and results.
  3. Polling shows the race is tight, with a sense of momentum building for Trump. However, the election outcome still depends on actual voter turnout, and anything can happen between now and then.

Strange Bedfellows

Campaign Trails • 4625 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. People from different political backgrounds can still agree on important issues, like protecting democracy. It's curious to see alliances form where you least expect them.
  2. Supporting a candidate like Kamala Harris doesn't mean changing beliefs or plans. It's more about attracting voters from all sides for a better chance at winning an election.
  3. Historically, reaching out to people from the opposing party has led to successful campaigns. Winning broad support is key to pushing forward important policies after elections.

Clear Eyes, Full Hearts

Magic + Loss • 1252 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Half of Americans consider Trump to be a fascist, which is not good news for him.
  2. Kamala Harris is leading in national polls and early voting, showing strong support among voters.
  3. Many more registered Democrats are voting early compared to Republicans, especially in battleground states like Pennsylvania.

Monopoly Round-Up: Why the Epstein Files Won't Go Away

BIG by Matt Stoller • 29565 implied HN points • 02 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. New Epstein documents link many powerful people to his network and show shameless behavior among elites, but those revelations are producing little legal accountability.
  2. A union mechanic won a heavily outspent Texas special election, signaling strong voter anger and a possible anti‑establishment shift driven by economic frustration.
  3. Regulators and markets are clashing with monopoly power — from accusations against Bezos to drug price moves and big tech deal scrutiny — showing rising public and regulatory pressure on corporate elites.

Trump's a Rapist

Magic + Loss • 2147 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Trump has been legally labeled a rapist by a jury and a judge. This means he is held accountable for his actions.
  2. Instead of overwhelming voters with many reasons not to support Trump, focusing on his status as a rapist is a clear and straightforward argument.
  3. Reiterating that Trump is a rapist can be an effective way to persuade others against voting for him, as it addresses a serious issue directly.

Is James Fishback the Future of the GOP?

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 3486 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. James Fishback is the prototype of a new GOP archetype: loud, media-savvy, and willing to mix populist economics with racism and scandal.
  2. Young, online conservatives are especially vulnerable to flashy grifters, and polls plus big event turnouts show Fishback with strong support among 18–34 Republicans.
  3. The conservative movement is undergoing a human-capital decline as the right-wing press normalizes odious figures, risking a long-term drop in the quality and norms of Republican politicians.

In 2026, Will Americans Finally Turn Against Oligarchs?

BIG by Matt Stoller • 59703 implied HN points • 26 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Americans are increasingly noticing private equity roll-ups in everyday services and are angry because these practices raise prices and degrade quality.
  2. Anti-monopoly ideas are moving into the mainstream as politicians, local officials, media, and even some wealthy figures criticize concentration and pursue legal and regulatory action.
  3. Growing public frustration and institutional momentum could lead to real policy change against oligarchy, though entrenched interests and cynical politics will push back.

About Last Night

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2877 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Kamala Harris faced tough questions in her interview but struggled to connect with the voters she needs most. Her answers didn't reassure those unsure about voting for her.
  2. The interview highlighted a disconnect between Harris and potential Republican voters who dislike Trump. She needed to show she understands these voters, but she missed that chance.
  3. While some praised Harris for going on Fox News, her performance was seen as lacking. Critics from the left suggest she didn't meet expectations for this important moment.

Cheap Dates

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1338 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Some Republicans who dislike Trump are unintentionally helping him gain support. Their strong opposition makes it easier for Trump to rally his base.
  2. Kamala Harris's campaign did not feel the need to change or soften its views because of the intense dislike for Trump. They relied on attacking rather than convincing people.
  3. A group of former Republicans believes they know better than others and are frustrated when people challenge their views. This attitude could contribute to Trump's return.

SHOW NOTES: Bullies, Authoritarians, and French Fries

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1278 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Kamala Harris is struggling to connect with voters, especially Black voters in Georgia, who feel she lacks relatable experience. Many are undecided and may not vote at all.
  2. There's a growing sense among Democrats that they might lose the election, with signs of weakening support for Harris. Their current tactics seem to rely more on shaming than persuasion.
  3. Voter turnout patterns indicate that less engaged voters might be supporting Trump, which poses a challenge for pollsters trying to predict the election outcome.

Will a Nazi Tattoo Cost Democrats the Senate?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 556 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Many Democrats and progressives are backing Graham Platner because they think he can win, even though he has been linked to a Nazi tattoo.
  2. Supporters are downplaying or ignoring his faux working-class background and his brushes with bigots to focus on flipping a Senate seat.
  3. Prioritizing electability over character concerns could hurt Democratic credibility and might backfire politically down the road.

Want To See What a Blue State Looks Like

Points And Figures • 612 implied HN points • 18 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Illinois is used as an example of a deeply blue state where Democrats dominate elections, leading to left-leaning officials, higher taxes, and people moving away.
  2. To avoid a similar outcome, Republicans and conservatives are urged to fund and back viable candidates in purple states like Nevada and, above all, turn out to vote.
  3. A candidate stresses decades of financial experience and is seeking donations and national backing to win the Nevada state treasurer race and counter heavy Democratic spending.

The Saturday Read: Mere political games

The Saturday Read • 499 implied HN points • 26 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Labour's ties to American politics can be problematic, like when they were accused of interfering in the US elections. This shows how political games often cross borders and create complications.
  2. Alexei Navalny's memoir reveals his dark humor and predictions about his fate under the Kremlin. It's a powerful reminder of the risks dissidents face for speaking out.
  3. Kamala Harris's campaign struggled because she had little time to connect with voters and build support. This suggests that sometimes, issues go deeper than the candidate's abilities.

SHOW NOTES: They, Them, and You; Feminine Pee Squatters; Leaks; and Fries

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1179 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Trump's campaign messages resonate with voters, particularly on cultural issues, while Democrats struggle to connect with certain demographics like men and minorities.
  2. The recent leaks of classified information from the Biden-Harris administration raise serious concerns about national security and the integrity of intelligence operations.
  3. Kamala Harris's campaign appears ineffective as she distances herself from traditional voter outreach and relies on celebrity endorsements rather than genuine connection with the public.

Delta Is Ready When You Are, Democrats

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2697 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Many Democrats are starting to feel nervous about the upcoming election. They think Trump might have a better chance of winning than before.
  2. There are worries that the Democrats are not connecting well with Black and Latino voters, especially younger men. This could be a big problem in the election.
  3. Some Democrats believe their campaign strategies have not been effective. They think they may have waited too long to focus on important issues that matter to voters.

Trump's vibes-driven victory narrative crashes and burns

The Signorile Report • 2398 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Recent polls show that Trump is not leading as he claimed, with Harris actually holding a slight lead in important voter groups. This means his narrative of an easy victory is not supported by the data.
  2. Trump's recent public appearances and behavior have raised concerns about his fitness for office. Harris is effectively highlighting these issues, contrasting her own active campaigning with Trump's evasiveness.
  3. Harris is showing strong leadership by engaging with multiple media outlets and audiences. This approach seems to resonate more with voters, while Trump's awkward town hall meetings are backfiring.

Freedom. It's Meaningful

Points And Figures • 586 implied HN points • 18 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. The United States acts as a huge opportunity zone where newcomers can rebuild their lives and pursue the American Dream.
  2. Freedom is deeply meaningful for people who fled oppressive systems, and gaining it can be emotional and life-changing.
  3. A campaign for Nevada State Treasurer is seeking participation and donations to support the run.

BREAKING: The race is OFFICIALLY tied!

COVID Reason • 456 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. The race between Harris and Trump is officially tied, with both having equal support in recent polls.
  2. Polls show that results can vary slightly in different states but overall it's a close competition.
  3. As the election approaches, these numbers highlight a very competitive environment for both candidates.

Newsom Looks Small in the Face of a Big War

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1706 implied HN points • 05 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. He publicly blamed Israeli strikes for killing children and used that to attack Trump, a stance the writer says reflects rising anti‑Israel or anti‑Jewish sentiment among Democrats.
  2. He offers little criticism of Iran’s rulers, instead directing his harshest words at Israel and Trump.
  3. That blame-focused, tribal rhetoric makes him look small on a major international conflict and raises doubts about his ability to lead beyond his base as a 2028 front‑runner.

Weekend Report: What's happening?

The Signorile Report • 999 implied HN points • 19 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Trump appears exhausted and has been acting strangely at public events, worrying his supporters.
  2. Republicans are once again claiming voter fraud, specifically targeting Dominion Voting Systems as the source of their concerns.
  3. A leaked memo reveals that Republicans are genuinely worried about losing the House, despite their public confidence.

The literal enshittification of The United States

Marcus on AI • 5691 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. The United States feels like it’s sliding into decline as institutions, platforms, and public life get noticeably worse and more absurd.
  2. Technology can amplify that decline: a supposedly helpful chatbot gave a grotesque nutrition recommendation, showing how AI can produce dangerous or ridiculous advice.
  3. Outrageous content spreads fast and is often shared without context or critique, which lets harmful or stupid things gain attention instead of being caught and corrected.

Lassiez-Faire vs Control

Points And Figures • 532 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Campaigns feel different from other risky situations because the vote happens on a fixed schedule and you can’t control the final result, even though you can manage messaging and strategy.
  2. Voters prize integrity, honesty, and real professional experience, so candidates who emphasize stewardship of public funds and practical qualifications stand out over empty talk.
  3. Turnout decides elections, so local organizers, precinct workers, and individual registration choices matter a lot, and active mobilization and early voting can change the outcome.

The Democrat Witness Protection Program

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1938 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Major Democratic figures like the Obamas and Clintons are noticeably absent from the campaign trail, raising questions about their support for the party.
  2. Donald Trump's campaigning efforts in key areas might boost Republican turnout, especially since personal visits often energize voters.
  3. Kamala Harris is struggling to connect with voters and lacks the backing of prominent Democrats, which could hurt her chances in the election.

Does Kamala Harris Want To Win?

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1518 implied HN points • 12 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Kamala Harris's campaign schedule is not what you'd expect from someone who wants to win a presidential election. She's not doing enough events in key areas.
  2. Donald Trump is using a smart strategy by focusing on important issues that matter to everyday voters. This could help him gain more political power.
  3. The Harris team may not fully realize how serious the competition is against Trump. They need to step up their game to stay relevant.