The hottest Delinquencies Substack posts right now

Mortgage lending climbed to a 3.5‑year high in Q4, driven by a surge in refinances as lower rates improved affordability and expanded the pool of refinance‑eligible borrowers.
Average annual property insurance payments reached an all‑time high in 2025, rising 6.6%, and borrowers with higher insurance burdens are more likely to fall behind on payments.
Overall delinquencies dipped slightly, but serious delinquencies and active foreclosures rose, leaving over 850,000 borrowers 90+ days past due or in foreclosure—the highest level since mid‑2018.

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae saw slight increases in single-family serious delinquency rates in December (Freddie 0.58%→0.59%, Fannie 0.57%→0.58%), but both remain low and at or below pre-pandemic levels.
Fannie’s delinquency issues are concentrated in older loan vintages — loans from 2004–2008 show much higher serious delinquency rates (about 1.4–2.0%) while 2009–2025 vintages are low (around 0.53%).
Fannie Mae’s multi-family delinquency rate is approaching housing-bust highs, and the report counts loans in forbearance as delinquent even though those loans aren’t reported to credit bureaus.

Household debt rose in Q4 2025, driven by increases in mortgage balances and higher credit card balances.
Delinquency rates edged up as more mortgages moved into 30–60 day late status and fewer loans cured back to current, while foreclosures increased slightly but remain below pre‑pandemic levels.
Mortgage originations show strong credit quality (median score ~775) with almost no new loans to borrowers below 620, reflecting much tighter underwriting than during the housing bubble.

Early-January rate declines toward 6% opened large refinance opportunities for millions and pushed affordability to a four-year high, but prices remain elevated relative to incomes.
National home price growth slowed to its weakest pace since 2011, with the South and West weakening while the Northeast and Midwest hold firmer, and inventories still lagging pre-pandemic norms in many areas.
Negative equity has risen to the highest level since 2018, concentrated in recent loan vintages and in several Southern markets where over 10% of mortgaged homes are underwater.

Falling mortgage rates triggered a surge in refinances, lifting servicer refinance retention to a 3.5‑year high and making rate‑and‑term refinances the dominant activity; non‑bank servicers retained far more borrowers than banks.
Mortgage performance strengthened as national delinquencies fell to about 3.34%, well below pre‑pandemic levels, although FHA loans remain an outlier with higher non‑current rates.
Home prices firmed modestly with the ICE Home Price Index up 0.8% year‑over‑year in November, but gains are uneven — the Northeast and Midwest lead, the South and West lag, and single‑family homes are outperforming condos.

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Home price growth was the slowest since 2011, ending the year at just 3.4%. This is significantly lower than the growth rates seen in previous years.
The number of homes for sale increased by 22% in 2024, which is the highest level of inventory since mid-2020. Some markets are even back to pre-pandemic levels.
Mortgage delinquencies have started to rise, especially with FHA and VA loans. This suggests potential issues in mortgage performance could become more prominent in 2025.

Single-family serious delinquencies remained stable in November.
Multi-family serious delinquencies increased during the same period.
Freddie Mac reported a 0.54% serious delinquency rate in November, which is a decrease from the previous year.

Mortgage delinquency rates have slightly decreased in Q2 2025, reaching 3.93%, which is below the historic average.
Although overall delinquencies are down, serious delinquencies for loans 90 days or more past due have increased.
The labor market shows some weakness and could lead to future increases in mortgage delinquencies, even though current rates remain low.

We won't see a big increase in foreclosures like before. Most homeowners have good equity and stable mortgages, which helps them avoid financial struggles.
The number of properties owned by lenders remains low, indicating that fewer people are losing their homes. This is a good sign compared to past economic downturns.
Delinquency rates are decreasing, and most homeowners are able to keep up with payments. Even those in trouble can often find solutions to stay in their homes.

Refinance activity surged in September and October, with over 300,000 borrowers taking advantage of lower interest rates. This was the highest refinance volume in 2.5 years.
Mortgage delinquencies decreased slightly in October, dropping below pre-pandemic levels. However, serious delinquencies are still slowly rising year over year.
Home prices saw a small increase in October, with growth edging up to 3.0%. But there are signs that this rate might soften again soon due to rising interest rates and potential demand pullbacks.

First-time homebuyers constituted a significant portion of GSE purchase loans in 2023, reaching a record 47%, the highest in at least a decade.
Mortgage originations in 2023 hit a 30-year low, with a heavy focus on purchase transactions, while refinance lending showed potential for growth if rates decrease.
In January, mortgage delinquencies dropped to 3.38%, the lowest level since October, indicating a positive trend below pre-pandemic levels.