CalculatedRisk Newsletter

The CalculatedRisk Newsletter focuses on in-depth analysis and updates on the real estate market, including housing sales, mortgage rates, housing inventory, credit scores, market dynamics, policy proposals, and economic implications of events like the pandemic on housing. It combines data-driven insights with forecasts and trends.

Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Sales and Inventory Mortgage Rates and Debt Economic Trends Affecting Real Estate Policy and Regulatory Changes Market Forecasts and Predictions

The hottest Substack posts of CalculatedRisk Newsletter

And their main takeaways
148 implied HN points β€’ 12 Feb 24
  1. The 2-part overview offers insights into the current state of the housing market for mid-February 2024, covering aspects like house prices, sales, inventory, mortgage rates, and rents.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 2.8% year-over-year in January 2024, showing a slight increase from the previous year's record low for January, potentially signaling an increase in overall inventory for the market.
  3. It's important to note that December and January are typically the weakest months for new listings, and while new listings are expected to show year-over-year growth in 2024, March data will provide a clearer picture of their proximity to normal levels.
220 implied HN points β€’ 10 Jan 24
  1. The overview provides a snapshot of the current housing market including sales, prices, inventory, mortgage rates, and rents.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 9.1% year-over-year in December of 2023.
  3. Seasonally, December and January are weaker months for new listings, but it's expected that new listings may be up year-over-year in 2024.
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90 implied HN points β€’ 14 Feb 24
  1. The Case-Shiller National Index revealed a year-over-year increase of 5.1% in house prices, with expectations of a more positive change in December.
  2. Different measures like the NAR, ICE, and Freddie Mac also show positive trends in house prices, hitting new all-time highs in December 2024.
  3. This analysis provides insights into the current state of the housing market, offering a glimpse into where it has been, where it is now, and where it might be heading.
71 implied HN points β€’ 28 Feb 24
  1. Freddie Mac reported a significant increase in multifamily serious delinquencies in January 2024, marking a shift in the rental market dynamics.
  2. The rise in delinquency rates is attributed to slowed rent growth, increased vacancies, and higher borrowing rates in the multifamily housing sector.
  3. The trend of increasing delinquencies is expected to continue as more apartments become available in 2024, highlighting potential challenges in the real estate market.
90 implied HN points β€’ 08 Feb 24
  1. Mortgage delinquencies increased in Q4 2023 for all loan types.
  2. The largest increase in delinquencies was for FHA loans.
  3. The total delinquency rate for conventional loans also increased.
66 implied HN points β€’ 27 Feb 24
  1. The Case-Shiller National House Price Index increased by 5.5% year-over-year in December, showing a trend of rising prices. This was the smallest increase since prices declined in January 2023, hinting at some market fluctuations.
  2. The FHFA House Price Index indicated a 6.5% rise in prices over the last year, with a 0.1% increase in December, pointing towards a steady rise in housing prices despite signs of softening in the market.
  3. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index reported a 5.5% annual gain in December, with regions like San Diego, Los Angeles, and Detroit showing significant increases. The Composite 10, Composite 20, and National indices all reached new all-time highs.
43 implied HN points β€’ 19 Mar 24
  1. Homeowners with low interest rates might be hesitant to sell due to higher mortgage rates, impacting the overall housing market.
  2. Rising mortgage rates create a 'lock-in effect,' reducing the probability of home sales and affecting affordability.
  3. The lock-in effect contributes to limited housing supply, increases home prices, and restricts mobility, but is expected to fade over time.
47 implied HN points β€’ 12 Mar 24
  1. Closed sales in February were influenced by past mortgage rates, showing a decrease from rates in the previous months.
  2. Active inventory in early reporting housing markets increased significantly in February, raising concerns about potential peaks.
  3. New listings in February were up year-over-year, but still at low levels compared to historical data.
76 implied HN points β€’ 07 Feb 24
  1. Early reports suggest a slight increase in housing sales year-over-year in January.
  2. Inventory in early reporting markets is down compared to 2019, with a key focus on how inventory levels change in the coming months.
  3. New listings in January were up year-over-year, but still remain historically low.
43 implied HN points β€’ 14 Mar 24
  1. The Case-Shiller National Index reported a 5.5% year-over-year increase in house prices in December, with expectations for a slightly more positive change in January.
  2. Monthly, the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Index experienced an 0.19% increase, marking the eleventh consecutive month of increase, yet the smallest growth since January 2023.
  3. The post discusses the outlook for house prices in 2024 and invites readers to subscribe for more detailed information.
43 implied HN points β€’ 13 Mar 24
  1. The current housing market inventory is increasing year-over-year but remains below pre-pandemic levels.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 11.3% year-over-year in February according to the Realtor.com report, showing a positive trend.
  3. Factors like the '3 D’s' (Death, Divorce, Disease), unemployment, and financial considerations affect homeowners' decisions to sell their homes, impacting market dynamics.
62 implied HN points β€’ 16 Feb 24
  1. Existing home sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million, showing a 6.3% increase from December and 0.5% from last January.
  2. The estimated 'natural' real rate of interest has shown varying trends, with one measure rising to slightly above 2% for two quarters while another started to move back down.
  3. Economists have noted potential biases in the estimates of the impact of 'other factors' on the 'natural' rate of interest, and some have suggested using TIPS rates as an indicator of market views.
57 implied HN points β€’ 16 Feb 24
  1. Single-family housing starts were up 22% year-over-year in January, while multi-family starts experienced a significant decrease.
  2. There was an overall decrease in total housing starts in January, although November and December numbers were revised up.
  3. Permits held up better than starts in January, with likely impacts from severe weather last month.
43 implied HN points β€’ 29 Feb 24
  1. Freddie Mac's National Home Price Index rose 6.2% year-over-year in January, marking a positive trend in the housing market
  2. The index has been climbing consecutively for the past 13 months, showing sustained growth in home prices
  3. Seasonally adjusted data reveals that 16 states and D.C. experienced price declines, with Austin being the worst-performing city