CalculatedRisk Newsletter

The CalculatedRisk Newsletter focuses on in-depth analysis and updates on the real estate market, including housing sales, mortgage rates, housing inventory, credit scores, market dynamics, policy proposals, and economic implications of events like the pandemic on housing. It combines data-driven insights with forecasts and trends.

Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Sales and Inventory Mortgage Rates and Debt Economic Trends Affecting Real Estate Policy and Regulatory Changes Market Forecasts and Predictions

The hottest Substack posts of CalculatedRisk Newsletter

And their main takeaways

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2024

148 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Mortgage Rates Inventory Sales
  1. The 2-part overview offers insights into the current state of the housing market for mid-February 2024, covering aspects like house prices, sales, inventory, mortgage rates, and rents.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 2.8% year-over-year in January 2024, showing a slight increase from the previous year's record low for January, potentially signaling an increase in overall inventory for the market.
  3. It's important to note that December and January are typically the weakest months for new listings, and while new listings are expected to show year-over-year growth in 2024, March data will provide a clearer picture of their proximity to normal levels.

NMHC: "Apartment Market Continues to Loosen"

205 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Investing
  1. Apartment market conditions are weakening, with decreasing rent growth and rising vacancy rates.
  2. The Market Tightness Index has indicated looser market conditions for six consecutive quarters.
  3. There is a high number of apartments under construction, leading to an influx of new apartments and increased concessions.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024

220 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economy
  1. The overview provides a snapshot of the current housing market including sales, prices, inventory, mortgage rates, and rents.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 9.1% year-over-year in December of 2023.
  3. Seasonally, December and January are weaker months for new listings, but it's expected that new listings may be up year-over-year in 2024.
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1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

205 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Early reports suggest sales in December were down slightly year-over-year.
  2. The data includes a comparison to December 2019 for each local market.
  3. The post offers a first look at local housing markets with ongoing tracking of about 40 markets.

"The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates"

43 implied HN points • 19 Mar 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates Real Estate Market Dynamics Homeownership Financial impact
  1. Homeowners with low interest rates might be hesitant to sell due to higher mortgage rates, impacting the overall housing market.
  2. Rising mortgage rates create a 'lock-in effect,' reducing the probability of home sales and affecting affordability.
  3. The lock-in effect contributes to limited housing supply, increases home prices, and restricts mobility, but is expected to fade over time.

Freddie Reports Surge in Multifamily Serious Delinquencies

71 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economics Real Estate
  1. Freddie Mac reported a significant increase in multifamily serious delinquencies in January 2024, marking a shift in the rental market dynamics.
  2. The rise in delinquency rates is attributed to slowed rent growth, increased vacancies, and higher borrowing rates in the multifamily housing sector.
  3. The trend of increasing delinquencies is expected to continue as more apartments become available in 2024, highlighting potential challenges in the real estate market.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February

47 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Market Analysis
  1. Closed sales in February were influenced by past mortgage rates, showing a decrease from rates in the previous months.
  2. Active inventory in early reporting housing markets increased significantly in February, raising concerns about potential peaks.
  3. New listings in February were up year-over-year, but still at low levels compared to historical data.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

43 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgage Rates
  1. The Case-Shiller National Index reported a 5.5% year-over-year increase in house prices in December, with expectations for a slightly more positive change in January.
  2. Monthly, the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Index experienced an 0.19% increase, marking the eleventh consecutive month of increase, yet the smallest growth since January 2023.
  3. The post discusses the outlook for house prices in 2024 and invites readers to subscribe for more detailed information.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2024

90 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis
  1. The Case-Shiller National Index revealed a year-over-year increase of 5.1% in house prices, with expectations of a more positive change in December.
  2. Different measures like the NAR, ICE, and Freddie Mac also show positive trends in house prices, hitting new all-time highs in December 2024.
  3. This analysis provides insights into the current state of the housing market, offering a glimpse into where it has been, where it is now, and where it might be heading.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

43 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Market Trends Inventory Mortgages
  1. The current housing market inventory is increasing year-over-year but remains below pre-pandemic levels.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 11.3% year-over-year in February according to the Realtor.com report, showing a positive trend.
  3. Factors like the '3 D’s' (Death, Divorce, Disease), unemployment, and financial considerations affect homeowners' decisions to sell their homes, impacting market dynamics.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.5% year-over-year in December

66 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. The Case-Shiller National House Price Index increased by 5.5% year-over-year in December, showing a trend of rising prices. This was the smallest increase since prices declined in January 2023, hinting at some market fluctuations.
  2. The FHFA House Price Index indicated a 6.5% rise in prices over the last year, with a 0.1% increase in December, pointing towards a steady rise in housing prices despite signs of softening in the market.
  3. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index reported a 5.5% annual gain in December, with regions like San Diego, Los Angeles, and Detroit showing significant increases. The Composite 10, Composite 20, and National indices all reached new all-time highs.

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in Q4 2023

90 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
  1. Mortgage delinquencies increased in Q4 2023 for all loan types.
  2. The largest increase in delinquencies was for FHA loans.
  3. The total delinquency rate for conventional loans also increased.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February

33 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Market Mortgage Rates
  1. The closed sales in February were mostly for contracts signed when mortgage rates were lower than in the previous months. This signifies a trend of lower mortgage rates impacting sales.
  2. Active inventory in February showed mixed trends with some areas experiencing significant year-over-year increases in inventory while others saw decreases compared to 2019.
  3. New listings in February were up year-over-year, but still remained at historically low levels. Most areas reported lower new listings compared to January 2019.

Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

33 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgages Equity Rates
  1. Most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes, which helps prevent a surge in foreclosures that could impact house prices.
  2. The distribution of interest rates on mortgages shows that a large percentage are under 4%, making it easier for homeowners to manage financially.
  3. Understanding key housing terms like forbearance, delinquency, foreclosure, and REO (Real Estate Owned) can help navigate discussions about property ownership.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February

38 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
💰 Finance Housing Markets Real Estate Mortgage Rates
  1. Early reports suggest an increase in home sales from January to February.
  2. Closed home sales in February were based on contracts signed in December and January when mortgage rates were lower compared to the previous months.
  3. Inventory for housing markets in January was down year-over-year but has seen a slight increase compared to the previous year.

The "Home ATM" Closed in Q4

38 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💰 Finance Debt GDP Real Estate Homeownership
  1. During the housing bubble, many homeowners used their perceived home equity as a 'Home ATM,' contributing to the subsequent housing bust when prices declined.
  2. Refinancing activity declined in early 2022 as mortgage rates rose, leading to a shift where homeowners started using home equity loans to access their equity.
  3. Despite a decline in demand for HELOCs and a decrease in refinancing activity, Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) remained low throughout Q4 2023, indicating balanced equity borrowing and principal payments.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January

76 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
  1. Early reports suggest a slight increase in housing sales year-over-year in January.
  2. Inventory in early reporting markets is down compared to 2019, with a key focus on how inventory levels change in the coming months.
  3. New listings in January were up year-over-year, but still remain historically low.

Lawler: Update on “Is the “Natural” Rate of Interest Back to Pre-Financial Crisis Levels”

62 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economics Real Estate
  1. Existing home sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million, showing a 6.3% increase from December and 0.5% from last January.
  2. The estimated 'natural' real rate of interest has shown varying trends, with one measure rising to slightly above 2% for two quarters while another started to move back down.
  3. Economists have noted potential biases in the estimates of the impact of 'other factors' on the 'natural' rate of interest, and some have suggested using TIPS rates as an indicator of market views.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 6.2% Year-over-year

43 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Economics Indices Markets
  1. Freddie Mac's National Home Price Index rose 6.2% year-over-year in January, marking a positive trend in the housing market
  2. The index has been climbing consecutively for the past 13 months, showing sustained growth in home prices
  3. Seasonally adjusted data reveals that 16 states and D.C. experienced price declines, with Austin being the worst-performing city

Single Family Starts Up 22% Year-over-year in January; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply

57 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Indicators
  1. Single-family housing starts were up 22% year-over-year in January, while multi-family starts experienced a significant decrease.
  2. There was an overall decrease in total housing starts in January, although November and December numbers were revised up.
  3. Permits held up better than starts in January, with likely impacts from severe weather last month.