CalculatedRisk Newsletter

The CalculatedRisk Newsletter focuses on in-depth analysis and updates on the real estate market, including housing sales, mortgage rates, housing inventory, credit scores, market dynamics, policy proposals, and economic implications of events like the pandemic on housing. It combines data-driven insights with forecasts and trends.

Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Sales and Inventory Mortgage Rates and Debt Economic Trends Affecting Real Estate Policy and Regulatory Changes Market Forecasts and Predictions

The hottest Substack posts of CalculatedRisk Newsletter

And their main takeaways

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year

23 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing Market
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index went up by 3.9% over the last year, showing that home prices are generally on the rise again.
  2. Many cities in Florida are experiencing significant price declines, with four of the six cities having the largest drops in home values.
  3. As housing inventory grows and sales remain low, it's expected that the growth in home prices could slow down in 2025.

New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

43 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing supply Sales Data
  1. New home sales dropped to an annual rate of 657,000 in January, marking a decline from previous months. This shows a slowdown in the housing market compared to last year.
  2. The average price of new homes has decreased by 5.8% from its highest point due to changes in what types of homes are selling.
  3. There is a high inventory of homes available, with a supply of 9 months, which is more than the usual range of 4 to 6 months. This indicates more choices for buyers but also suggests a slower market.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak

19 implied HN points • 27 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Analysis Housing Affordability
  1. House prices are currently about 1% lower than their peak in 2022 when adjusted for inflation. This means prices are still quite high compared to the past.
  2. The price-to-rent ratio is around 7.7% lower than the 2022 peak. This could mean it's more expensive to buy a house than to rent in some areas.
  3. Real house prices have generally been increasing over time, but it's been a while since they have hit new highs. Experts think prices may stay flat or slightly decline in the near future.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December

19 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. U.S. house prices rose about 4.5% over the past year, showing growth across all regions, but at a slower pace than before. This suggests the market is stabilizing after a period of rapid increases.
  2. The Case-Shiller index indicates that home prices have been increasing month-over-month consistently, with a 0.5% rise recently, even though some cities like San Francisco and Tampa are seeing price declines.
  3. Overall house prices are now higher than they were before the pandemic, but growth is less intense than during peak years, reflecting changes in demand and supply in the housing market.

California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

38 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Investment Market Trends Economic Indicators Real Estate
  1. California home sales fell by 1.9% in January compared to last year. This drop marks the first year-over-year decline in eight months.
  2. The median price for homes in California decreased from December but is still 6.3% higher than a year ago. This shows mixed signs in the housing market.
  3. Inventory of homes for sale increased significantly, up 27.4% year-over-year. More homes are available now, which could change the dynamics of the market.
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The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates

38 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Investment Mortgage Monetary Policy Market Trends
  1. The neutral rate, which helps determine monetary policy, has increased back to levels seen before the financial crisis. This means current monetary policy might not be restricting the economy as much as previously thought.
  2. Some economists believe that the actual neutral rate is higher than expected, which could indicate that interest rates may not be as high as people fear.
  3. Fed Chair Powell agreed that the neutral rate has risen significantly since before the pandemic, suggesting a change in how we should view economic policy now.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January

43 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Interest Rates Economic Indicators Home Sales
  1. Existing home sales are predicted to be around 4.09 million for January, showing a slight drop from December but an increase from last year.
  2. The average sale price for homes has risen about 5% compared to a year ago, indicating a continuing trend in increasing home values.
  3. The expected real interest rates have returned to levels similar to before the financial crisis, suggesting a more stable economic outlook.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

57 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Markets Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Indicators
  1. The National Association of Realtors will report on January home sales, which are expected to decrease. People are anticipating a drop from December's sales figures.
  2. In January 2024, home sales were reported at around 4.00 million, showing a trend in sales that people are keeping an eye on.
  3. Data comparisons from January 2019 will also be included, helping to understand how the market has changed over time.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January

28 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Construction Market Analysis
  1. In January, housing starts dropped to 1.366 million, which is lower than both December's figures and January 2024's. This shows a ongoing decrease in new housing construction.
  2. Single-family home construction decreased by 8.4% compared to December, which indicates a slowdown in this sector. Meanwhile, multi-family units saw a slight increase year-over-year but still faced declines month-over-month.
  3. There were significant differences in regional construction patterns, especially in the Northeast, which experienced a notable drop, likely due to weather conditions.

Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

57 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investments Banking Mortgages Debt Economics
  1. Mortgage originations are showing different credit scores now compared to the bubble years from 2003 to 2006. This means people with lower credit scores are getting mortgages now.
  2. Delinquencies on mortgages are increasing, which means more people are having trouble making their payments on time.
  3. Foreclosures are still low, which is good news as it suggests that despite the rising delinquencies, people are not losing their homes at a high rate.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January

14 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Sales trends Economic Indicators Investment
  1. Existing-home sales have decreased to 4.08 million in January, which is a drop of 4.9% from the previous month, but it's still a 2.0% increase compared to January 2024.
  2. The housing inventory is rising, reaching 1.18 million units, up 16.8% from last year, which shows there is more supply available than before the pandemic.
  3. Despite the drop in sales, this is the fourth consecutive month with year-over-year increases, suggesting some positive trends in the market.

Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest

47 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Economics Federal Reserve Housing Market
  1. The current monetary policy is not tight enough to be called restrictive. This means people can still borrow money relatively easily.
  2. Tom Lawler has discussed the 'Neutral' rate of interest a lot. Understanding this rate helps us know how the economy might react to changes in interest rates.
  3. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell suggest that the interest rate environment is still being evaluated, which could affect future economic policies.

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024

43 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
💰 Finance Mortgage Delinquency Loans Banking
  1. Mortgage delinquencies slightly increased to 3.98% in Q4 2024 compared to the previous quarter. This means more people are missing their mortgage payments.
  2. FHA and VA loans are seeing a bigger rise in delinquency rates compared to conventional loans. This is concerning, especially as the gaps in these rates are growing.
  3. States like Florida and South Carolina had the largest increases in delinquency rates. Natural disasters, like hurricanes, may be partly to blame for this rise.

ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Lowest calendar year home price growth of any year since 2011”

52 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgage Economics Market Trends Home Prices Delinquencies
  1. Home price growth was the slowest since 2011, ending the year at just 3.4%. This is significantly lower than the growth rates seen in previous years.
  2. The number of homes for sale increased by 22% in 2024, which is the highest level of inventory since mid-2020. Some markets are even back to pre-pandemic levels.
  3. Mortgage delinquencies have started to rise, especially with FHA and VA loans. This suggests potential issues in mortgage performance could become more prominent in 2025.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

19 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Investments Mortgage Rates Economic Trends
  1. House prices are on the rise, with the Case-Shiller National Index showing a year-over-year increase of about 3.8% in November. This trend seems to be continuing into December as well.
  2. The month-over-month changes show that house prices have increased 0.44%, which means house prices have been consistently going up for 22 consecutive months.
  3. Looking ahead, there’s speculation about what will happen with house prices in 2025, indicating that trends in housing are important for future planning.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January

33 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Inventory Analysis Mortgage Rates
  1. January saw a significant increase in active housing inventory, rising by 38.3% from last year, but it's usually low during this month. March will be important to see if this trend continues.
  2. New listings in January rose by 23.7% compared to last year, but they are still at historic lows when compared to January 2019.
  3. Closed sales in January increased by 6.4% year-over-year, which is a positive sign, but overall sales are still down compared to earlier years like 2019.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

38 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Indicators Market Analysis
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same compared to last year. Recently, there's been a slight downward trend, but rents are still high compared to earlier years.
  2. The number of available rental units is increasing, leading to more options for renters. This rise in supply is helping to keep rents stable and pressures on affordability.
  3. Single-family rent growth is at its lowest in over 14 years. Even though rent increases are slowing, demand for rentals is expected to remain strong due to job and wage growth.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales

52 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Inventory
  1. Existing home sales increased for three months in a row, but they are still much lower than before the pandemic. December's sales were about 21% below the average from 2017 to 2019.
  2. Inventory of homes for sale is rising sharply in regions like Florida and Texas, with a year-over-year increase of 17.5%. This suggests more options for buyers in those areas.
  3. There were more new listings in December compared to last year, but they are still at historically low levels. The increase in new listings may hint at some recovery in the housing market.

Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP

129 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Debt Economic Trends Real Estate Mortgage
  1. There won't be a big drop in home prices because most people aren't selling under distress like before. Homeowners are in a better position now with more equity and low-rate mortgages.
  2. Mortgage debt is increasing, but not alarmingly. The current lending standards are stricter than during past bubbles, so it's less risky.
  3. Many new mortgages are going to borrowers with strong credit scores. This means that lending practices are healthy and borrowers are more qualified.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November

47 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis Investment Housing Market
  1. The Case-Shiller National House Price Index increased by 3.8% year-over-year in November, indicating rising home prices. This is a good sign for homeowners as it shows property values are generally going up.
  2. House prices rose by 0.3% in November according to the FHFA index, showing a slower growth rate compared to previous years. It suggests that higher mortgage rates might be affecting buyers' demand.
  3. New York had the highest annual home price increase at 7.3%, while Tampa saw a decline of 0.4%. Different regions are experiencing varying trends in home price changes.

Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate Household/Establishment Survey Employment Growth Gap

23 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Employment Surveys Demographics Labor Market
  1. The Household Survey and Establishment Survey both track employment, but there was a significant gap in their growth estimates over the years. Recent updates have nearly closed this gap.
  2. New population estimates showed that previous estimates of employment growth were too low, mainly due to underestimating international migration. This has led to a big revision upward in the Household Survey employment numbers.
  3. Now, both surveys show similar employment growth trends, which suggests that the labor market may not be as weak as previously thought.

New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December

43 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Indicators Housing supply
  1. New home sales in December 2024 hit 698,000, which is a good increase from the previous months. This suggests the housing market is showing some positive movement.
  2. The median price of new homes has dropped by 7.2% from its peak. This could make new homes more affordable for buyers.
  3. There are currently about 8.5 months of new home supply available, which is higher than the normal range. This means there are lots of homes for buyers to choose from.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak

38 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Inflation Market Trends Economic Indicators Investment
  1. House prices adjusted for inflation are currently 1.1% lower than their peak in 2022. This shows that even when prices rise, the increase may not match inflation.
  2. The price-to-rent index is also lower than its 2022 peak by 7.8%. This means it might be cheaper to rent compared to buying right now.
  3. National house prices are historically high, being 11.6% above the previous housing bubble peak. However, price growth may slow down in the near future.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year

33 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic data Housing Prices Investment Analysis
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index went up by 4.0% in December compared to last year. This shows that home prices are rising again after a period of decline.
  2. Most of the cities with the biggest price drops are in Florida, with Austin being the worst performer overall. This indicates that some areas are struggling much more than others.
  3. As more homes become available for sale in 2025, the growth in house prices might slow down. So even though prices are rising now, that might change in the near future.

1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006

47 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate Market Trends Construction Economic Indicators Housing policy
  1. In 2024, there were 1.73 million housing completions, which is the highest since 2006. This means more homes are now finished and ready for people.
  2. Completions increased by 12.5% compared to the previous year. This is a good sign for the housing market as more homes are being built.
  3. Even without counting manufactured homes, there were still around 1.63 million completions in 2024. This shows a strong upward trend in housing development.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December

47 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Home Sales Economic data Forecasting
  1. Existing home sales stayed steady at an annual rate of 4.15 million in December, the same as November. This shows slight improvement compared to the previous year.
  2. The average price of existing single-family homes increased by about 5.6% compared to last year. This indicates that home values are generally rising.
  3. The upcoming report from the National Association of Realtors is expected to show even higher sales this month. If confirmed, it would be a third month of increasing year-over-year sales.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

52 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Markets Sales Inventory Economics
  1. In December, closed home sales saw an 18.1% increase from the previous year, indicating a positive trend in some local markets.
  2. There was a significant jump in active housing inventory, up 27.2% compared to last year, with more homes available for buyers.
  3. New listings also grew by 11.8% year-over-year, but overall levels are still historically low compared to 2019.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

43 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Trends Real Estate Sales Data Inventory
  1. Home sales have been increasing for three months in a row compared to last year, which is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. Inventory of homes for sale is up significantly, especially in southern states like Florida and Texas, meaning more choices for buyers.
  3. New listings are still low compared to past years, but they have increased recently, indicating some recovery in the market.

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December

28 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Inventory
  1. Some local housing markets are seeing quicker inventory recovery than sales, especially in states like Florida and Texas. This may lead to rising home prices.
  2. December is showing a year-over-year increase in home sales for the third month in a row. This trend might indicate a recovering housing market.
  3. Regional differences in the housing market are important to watch. Understanding these differences can help buyers and sellers make better decisions.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December

14 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Mortgages Economic Trends Credit Risk
  1. Single-family serious delinquency rates for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have increased slightly in December, indicating more homeowners are struggling to keep up with mortgage payments.
  2. Fannie Mae's delinquency rate rose to 0.56% while Freddie Mac's went up to 0.59%, both of which are still lower than pre-pandemic levels.
  3. Older loans from before 2009 show higher serious delinquency, whereas more recent loans are performing better, but there are still some lingering issues from past housing bubble years.

Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High

52 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate Market Trends Economic data
  1. The apartment vacancy rate rose to 6.1% in Q4 2024, which is the highest since 2011. This increase shows that more people are leaving their apartments.
  2. The office vacancy rate set a new record at 20.4% in Q4 2024. This suggests many businesses are not needing as much office space due to changes in work habits.
  3. Even with rising vacancies, rents for apartments are still high, showing a mixed rental market. People are still wanting places to live, but it’s taking longer to fill those spaces.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

28 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Trends Sales Economics Investments
  1. California home sales increased by about 19.8% compared to last year in December. This shows a strong recovery in the housing market.
  2. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) expects the existing home sales report for December to reflect ongoing growth. This will mark the third month of year-over-year increases in home sales.
  3. There’s a general positive trend in the housing market after months of decline. It's a sign that more people are starting to buy homes again.

FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

57 implied HN points • 27 Dec 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates Real Estate Credit Scores Economic Trends Housing Market
  1. Current mortgage rates remain high, especially above 6%, making it hard for homeowners to sell and buy new homes. Most people with lower rates don't want to move because their payments would go up.
  2. More than half of all outstanding loans are now under 4%, showing how many people got favorable rates during the pandemic. This is a big reason why available homes for sale are currently low.
  3. Market sentiment is hesitant, with many potential buyers waiting for mortgage rates to drop into the 5% range before they consider purchasing a home.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in November

47 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Economics Investment Market Trends
  1. In November, both single-family and multi-family serious delinquency rates went up. This means more people are having trouble paying their housing bills.
  2. Freddie Mac reported that the single-family serious delinquency rate increased slightly to 0.56%. Even though it rose, it's still lower than pre-pandemic levels.
  3. The overall trend shows that while delinquency rates are increasing, they are still relatively low compared to before the pandemic hit.

NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter"

19 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economics Investment Housing
  1. The apartment market has been getting looser for ten quarters in a row. This means there are more vacancies and less competition for renters.
  2. Signs show that rents might drop as apartment vacancies increase. If more places are empty, landlords may lower prices to attract renters.
  3. There is less activity in buying and selling apartments, and it's also harder to get financing. This could make it tough for investors in the real estate market.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

33 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing supply
  1. Asking rents are pretty stable, with a slight year-over-year drop of 0.6%. This means many people are paying about the same for their apartments as they did last year.
  2. There's a lot more new apartments being built, leading to a higher vacancy rate. This increase in supply is putting pressure on rents and keeps them from rising significantly.
  3. Single-family home rents grew by 1.7% last year but are showing signs of slowing down. Overall, rent growth is not as high as it used to be, indicating a cooling market.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.3% Below 2022 Peak

33 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Inflation Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. Inflation-adjusted house prices are now 1.3% lower than their peak in 2022. This means homes cost less when you account for inflation.
  2. Real house prices, which consider the effects of inflation, are still quite high compared to the past. They are about 11% above the peak during the housing bubble in 2006.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is also lower than its peak. This suggests that buying homes may be more favorable compared to renting right now.

Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025?

43 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Prices
  1. Housing inventory dropped a lot during the pandemic, hitting record lows. Even now, inventory is still not back to pre-pandemic levels.
  2. In 2024, there was a significant increase in housing inventory, which is a positive sign for the market. This increase could indicate stability in home prices as more homes become available.
  3. Monitoring housing inventory trends has been important in the past for predicting when home prices will rise or fall, making it a key factor to watch moving into 2025.