CalculatedRisk Newsletter

The CalculatedRisk Newsletter focuses on in-depth analysis and updates on the real estate market, including housing sales, mortgage rates, housing inventory, credit scores, market dynamics, policy proposals, and economic implications of events like the pandemic on housing. It combines data-driven insights with forecasts and trends.

Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Sales and Inventory Mortgage Rates and Debt Economic Trends Affecting Real Estate Policy and Regulatory Changes Market Forecasts and Predictions

The hottest Substack posts of CalculatedRisk Newsletter

And their main takeaways

July ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool, Early Signs of Homeowner Risk Emerge

244 implied HN points • 07 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgage Home Prices Economic Trends Financial risk
  1. Home prices are cooling down, with some areas seeing more significant drops. This could affect homeowners' equity and lead to financial challenges.
  2. Many people are using adjustable-rate mortgages or temporary buydown options to manage monthly payments. While this can help now, it may create issues later when rates increase.
  3. Student loan debts are becoming a bigger problem for homeowners, increasing the risk of them falling behind on mortgage payments. Almost 30% of FHA borrowers also have student loans, and those struggling with student debt are more likely to have mortgage issues.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

38 implied HN points • 02 Jul 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Policy Real Estate
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same over the past year. While there have been slight month-to-month increases, overall rent growth has slowed down.
  2. Different sources report varying trends in rents, with some noting recent decreases while others show modest increases. This suggests that the rental market is a bit mixed right now.
  3. Factors like increased supply of rental units and changing immigration policies are affecting rents. These influences may continue to shape the rental landscape throughout the year.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in May; Up 2.2% Year-over-year

28 implied HN points • 30 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Investment Economic Indicators Data Analysis
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index dropped by 0.23% in May but is still up 2.2% compared to last year. This shows that while prices are currently declining, there has been some growth over the past year.
  2. Florida and Texas are experiencing significant price declines, with 17 out of the 30 cities with the biggest drops located in these states. This trend indicates that real estate markets in these areas are facing challenges.
  3. Overall, 31 states and Washington D.C. have seen house prices fall since their peak. With inventory increasing and low sales, housing price growth may slow down even more in the future.

FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

28 implied HN points • 30 Jun 25
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates Credit Scores Housing Market Economic Trends
  1. Mortgage rates have dropped significantly since early 2020, with many loans under 4%. This makes it tough for homeowners to sell because they would face higher payments on new homes.
  2. More homes with loans over 6% are appearing in the market, indicating changes in mortgage dynamics since the peak of low rates in 2022.
  3. The average mortgage rate, along with borrowers' credit scores and loan-to-value ratios, is crucial in understanding the current mortgage landscape.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in May

19 implied HN points • 01 Jul 25
💰 Finance Housing Mortgage Economics Real Estate Investment
  1. The serious delinquency rates for single-family homes have decreased slightly in May. This shows some improvement from the previous month.
  2. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's delinquency rates are still higher than they were last year, but they are below pre-pandemic levels.
  3. Multi-family delinquency rates are nearing their highest levels since 2011, not counting the pandemic, indicating some stress in that sector.
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Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.7% Below 2022 Peak

33 implied HN points • 26 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators House Prices Inflation
  1. Inflation-adjusted house prices are currently 1.7% below their peak in 2022, meaning they have slightly decreased recently.
  2. When considering the price-to-rent ratio, this is also 8.8% lower than it was at the peak last year, indicating changes in housing affordability.
  3. Overall, while house prices are historically high, they remain about 10.9% above the peak levels from the previous housing bubble.

New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May

28 implied HN points • 25 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Housing Data Economic Indicators
  1. New home sales in May 2025 dropped to an annual rate of 623,000, which is lower than previous months and last year.
  2. There is an increase in the supply of new homes available, with nearly 10 months' worth of inventory on the market, which is much higher than normal.
  3. The prices of new homes have decreased, with a 7% drop from the peak, partly due to a change in the types of homes being sold.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.03 million SAAR in May; Down 0.7% YoY

23 implied HN points • 23 Jun 25
💼 Business Real Estate Sales Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. Existing-home sales rose by 0.8% in May compared to April, but they are still down 0.7% from last year. This trend indicates a mixed market performance.
  2. The total housing inventory increased significantly, showing a rise of 20.3% year-over-year. More choices for buyers could ease some pressure on the market.
  3. The months of unsold inventory went up to 4.6 months, which means houses are staying on the market longer. This level is higher than before the pandemic, suggesting a shift in buyer demand.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.256 million Annual Rate in May

28 implied HN points • 18 Jun 25
💰 Finance Housing Economics Real Estate Investment Market Trends
  1. Housing starts in May were lower than expected, at an annual rate of 1.256 million, which shows a decrease from both April and last year.
  2. Single-family housing starts went up slightly, but overall they are down from last year, while multi-family starts are doing better this year.
  3. Building permits also dropped a bit, indicating that new construction might slow down in the coming months.

California Home Sales "Sputter" in May; 4th Look at Local Markets

23 implied HN points • 20 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Inventory Analysis Economic Factors
  1. California home sales decreased for the third month in a row, highlighting reduced buyer confidence due to high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty.
  2. Active home inventory reached a 67-month high, with a significant year-over-year increase in available listings, suggesting more choices for buyers.
  3. Despite a minor decline in home prices, the market is still facing challenges, with many areas reporting fewer homes sold compared to previous years.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

43 implied HN points • 11 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Inventory Analysis Economic Indicators
  1. Closed home sales in May decreased by 3.9% compared to last year, which indicates a continuing downward trend in the housing market.
  2. New listings of homes increased by 10.2% year-over-year, but they're still lower than the levels seen in May 2019.
  3. Active inventory is rising significantly, with an increase of 36.9% compared to last year, showing more options for buyers this spring.

Housing Market Index and Single Family Starts

23 implied HN points • 17 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Economic Indicators
  1. Builder sentiment in the housing market is low, reaching one of the lowest levels since 2012. This means builders are feeling less confident about selling new homes.
  2. There has been a noticeable increase in price incentives from builders as the housing market slows down. This suggests they are trying to attract buyers who might be hesitant.
  3. Overall, the housing market is softening, which could impact future construction and development plans.

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q1

28 implied HN points • 12 Jun 25
💰 Finance Mortgage Housing Debt Equity Economy
  1. In the past, many homeowners borrowed against their home equity, calling it a 'Home ATM', but this led to financial problems when home prices fell. Today, most homeowners have solid equity in their homes, unlike back then.
  2. Mortgage debt increased by $45 billion in the first quarter of 2025, showing a slowdown compared to previous quarters. This is part of a larger trend of rising mortgage debt as people buy new homes.
  3. Mortgage debt as a percentage of the economy is at 44.8%, which is much healthier compared to the 73.1% peak during the housing crisis. This means homeowners today generally have more equity and better financial stability.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.7% year-over-year in April

9 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economic Trends Housing Market Statistics Market Analysis
  1. The national house price index is up by 2.7% over the past year, showing a general increase in home prices.
  2. However, there was a month-to-month decrease of 0.4% in home prices in April, indicating some fluctuation in the market.
  3. Certain regions are seeing lower gains or even declines, suggesting a shift in real estate trends across the country.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May

19 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing Data
  1. Existing home sales in May are estimated to be around 4.03 million, a slight increase from April but a small drop from last year. It's important to watch how these numbers change over time.
  2. The median price for single-family homes in May went up by only 1% compared to last year. Prices varied by region, with some areas seeing slight increases or decreases.
  3. The National Association of Realtors will release official sales data soon, which will give a clearer picture of the housing market.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025

19 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Mortgage Rates Investment Trends Economic Analysis
  1. The housing market shows an increase in home inventory, but sales are not growing much compared to last year. This can put pressure on home prices.
  2. House prices have recently increased year-over-year, but there is a decrease month-over-month for the first time since early 2023.
  3. There are different trends in housing across regions, which means some areas may experience changes in market conditions differently than others.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025

19 implied HN points • 09 Jun 25
💼 Business Real Estate Market Trends Housing Economics Construction
  1. The spring housing market was not great for new homebuilders, but they still have many completed homes to sell.
  2. There is a significant increase in the number of existing homes available for buyers, making it a better time to find a home.
  3. While home sales are flat compared to last year, prices may drop due to increased inventory, although big drops are unlikely.

Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP

129 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Debt Economic Trends Real Estate Mortgage
  1. There won't be a big drop in home prices because most people aren't selling under distress like before. Homeowners are in a better position now with more equity and low-rate mortgages.
  2. Mortgage debt is increasing, but not alarmingly. The current lending standards are stricter than during past bubbles, so it's less risky.
  3. Many new mortgages are going to borrowers with strong credit scores. This means that lending practices are healthy and borrowers are more qualified.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

57 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Markets Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Indicators
  1. The National Association of Realtors will report on January home sales, which are expected to decrease. People are anticipating a drop from December's sales figures.
  2. In January 2024, home sales were reported at around 4.00 million, showing a trend in sales that people are keeping an eye on.
  3. Data comparisons from January 2019 will also be included, helping to understand how the market has changed over time.

Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

57 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investments Banking Mortgages Debt Economics
  1. Mortgage originations are showing different credit scores now compared to the bubble years from 2003 to 2006. This means people with lower credit scores are getting mortgages now.
  2. Delinquencies on mortgages are increasing, which means more people are having trouble making their payments on time.
  3. Foreclosures are still low, which is good news as it suggests that despite the rising delinquencies, people are not losing their homes at a high rate.

New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

43 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing supply Sales Data
  1. New home sales dropped to an annual rate of 657,000 in January, marking a decline from previous months. This shows a slowdown in the housing market compared to last year.
  2. The average price of new homes has decreased by 5.8% from its highest point due to changes in what types of homes are selling.
  3. There is a high inventory of homes available, with a supply of 9 months, which is more than the usual range of 4 to 6 months. This indicates more choices for buyers but also suggests a slower market.

Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest

47 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Economics Federal Reserve Housing Market
  1. The current monetary policy is not tight enough to be called restrictive. This means people can still borrow money relatively easily.
  2. Tom Lawler has discussed the 'Neutral' rate of interest a lot. Understanding this rate helps us know how the economy might react to changes in interest rates.
  3. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell suggest that the interest rate environment is still being evaluated, which could affect future economic policies.

ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Lowest calendar year home price growth of any year since 2011”

52 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgage Economics Market Trends Home Prices Delinquencies
  1. Home price growth was the slowest since 2011, ending the year at just 3.4%. This is significantly lower than the growth rates seen in previous years.
  2. The number of homes for sale increased by 22% in 2024, which is the highest level of inventory since mid-2020. Some markets are even back to pre-pandemic levels.
  3. Mortgage delinquencies have started to rise, especially with FHA and VA loans. This suggests potential issues in mortgage performance could become more prominent in 2025.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January

43 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Interest Rates Economic Indicators Home Sales
  1. Existing home sales are predicted to be around 4.09 million for January, showing a slight drop from December but an increase from last year.
  2. The average sale price for homes has risen about 5% compared to a year ago, indicating a continuing trend in increasing home values.
  3. The expected real interest rates have returned to levels similar to before the financial crisis, suggesting a more stable economic outlook.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales

52 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Inventory
  1. Existing home sales increased for three months in a row, but they are still much lower than before the pandemic. December's sales were about 21% below the average from 2017 to 2019.
  2. Inventory of homes for sale is rising sharply in regions like Florida and Texas, with a year-over-year increase of 17.5%. This suggests more options for buyers in those areas.
  3. There were more new listings in December compared to last year, but they are still at historically low levels. The increase in new listings may hint at some recovery in the housing market.

California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

38 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Investment Market Trends Economic Indicators Real Estate
  1. California home sales fell by 1.9% in January compared to last year. This drop marks the first year-over-year decline in eight months.
  2. The median price for homes in California decreased from December but is still 6.3% higher than a year ago. This shows mixed signs in the housing market.
  3. Inventory of homes for sale increased significantly, up 27.4% year-over-year. More homes are available now, which could change the dynamics of the market.

The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates

38 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Investment Mortgage Monetary Policy Market Trends
  1. The neutral rate, which helps determine monetary policy, has increased back to levels seen before the financial crisis. This means current monetary policy might not be restricting the economy as much as previously thought.
  2. Some economists believe that the actual neutral rate is higher than expected, which could indicate that interest rates may not be as high as people fear.
  3. Fed Chair Powell agreed that the neutral rate has risen significantly since before the pandemic, suggesting a change in how we should view economic policy now.

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024

43 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
💰 Finance Mortgage Delinquency Loans Banking
  1. Mortgage delinquencies slightly increased to 3.98% in Q4 2024 compared to the previous quarter. This means more people are missing their mortgage payments.
  2. FHA and VA loans are seeing a bigger rise in delinquency rates compared to conventional loans. This is concerning, especially as the gaps in these rates are growing.
  3. States like Florida and South Carolina had the largest increases in delinquency rates. Natural disasters, like hurricanes, may be partly to blame for this rise.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November

47 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis Investment Housing Market
  1. The Case-Shiller National House Price Index increased by 3.8% year-over-year in November, indicating rising home prices. This is a good sign for homeowners as it shows property values are generally going up.
  2. House prices rose by 0.3% in November according to the FHFA index, showing a slower growth rate compared to previous years. It suggests that higher mortgage rates might be affecting buyers' demand.
  3. New York had the highest annual home price increase at 7.3%, while Tampa saw a decline of 0.4%. Different regions are experiencing varying trends in home price changes.

1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006

47 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate Market Trends Construction Economic Indicators Housing policy
  1. In 2024, there were 1.73 million housing completions, which is the highest since 2006. This means more homes are now finished and ready for people.
  2. Completions increased by 12.5% compared to the previous year. This is a good sign for the housing market as more homes are being built.
  3. Even without counting manufactured homes, there were still around 1.63 million completions in 2024. This shows a strong upward trend in housing development.

New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December

43 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Indicators Housing supply
  1. New home sales in December 2024 hit 698,000, which is a good increase from the previous months. This suggests the housing market is showing some positive movement.
  2. The median price of new homes has dropped by 7.2% from its peak. This could make new homes more affordable for buyers.
  3. There are currently about 8.5 months of new home supply available, which is higher than the normal range. This means there are lots of homes for buyers to choose from.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

52 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Markets Sales Inventory Economics
  1. In December, closed home sales saw an 18.1% increase from the previous year, indicating a positive trend in some local markets.
  2. There was a significant jump in active housing inventory, up 27.2% compared to last year, with more homes available for buyers.
  3. New listings also grew by 11.8% year-over-year, but overall levels are still historically low compared to 2019.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December

47 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Home Sales Economic data Forecasting
  1. Existing home sales stayed steady at an annual rate of 4.15 million in December, the same as November. This shows slight improvement compared to the previous year.
  2. The average price of existing single-family homes increased by about 5.6% compared to last year. This indicates that home values are generally rising.
  3. The upcoming report from the National Association of Realtors is expected to show even higher sales this month. If confirmed, it would be a third month of increasing year-over-year sales.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

38 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Indicators Market Analysis
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same compared to last year. Recently, there's been a slight downward trend, but rents are still high compared to earlier years.
  2. The number of available rental units is increasing, leading to more options for renters. This rise in supply is helping to keep rents stable and pressures on affordability.
  3. Single-family rent growth is at its lowest in over 14 years. Even though rent increases are slowing, demand for rentals is expected to remain strong due to job and wage growth.

Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High

52 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate Market Trends Economic data
  1. The apartment vacancy rate rose to 6.1% in Q4 2024, which is the highest since 2011. This increase shows that more people are leaving their apartments.
  2. The office vacancy rate set a new record at 20.4% in Q4 2024. This suggests many businesses are not needing as much office space due to changes in work habits.
  3. Even with rising vacancies, rents for apartments are still high, showing a mixed rental market. People are still wanting places to live, but it’s taking longer to fill those spaces.

FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

57 implied HN points • 27 Dec 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates Real Estate Credit Scores Economic Trends Housing Market
  1. Current mortgage rates remain high, especially above 6%, making it hard for homeowners to sell and buy new homes. Most people with lower rates don't want to move because their payments would go up.
  2. More than half of all outstanding loans are now under 4%, showing how many people got favorable rates during the pandemic. This is a big reason why available homes for sale are currently low.
  3. Market sentiment is hesitant, with many potential buyers waiting for mortgage rates to drop into the 5% range before they consider purchasing a home.