The hottest Geopolitics Substack posts right now

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Europe pays more for banned Russian oil, resold by India - as EU wages fall

Geopolitical Economy Report • 538 implied HN points • 05 May 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Europe is indirectly purchasing Russian oil through India at higher prices despite sanctions, contributing to de-dollarization and falling wages.
  2. Russian oil exports to Asia, particularly China and India, have increased significantly due to Western sanctions, shifting away from Europe.
  3. Real wages in the EU have fallen by 6.5% from 2020 to 2022 due to rising energy costs and a severe cost-of-living crisis, impacting poorer households the most.

The View from France

The Cosmopolitan Globalist • 55 implied HN points • 06 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Europe increasingly fears the United States may not defend it and now treats American envoys more like outside actors than reliable allies.
  2. Russia is openly menacing Europe while warmly courting U.S. businessmen in Moscow, a tactic meant to divide Europeans and undermine deterrence.
  3. European militaries are under-resourced and would need years to rebuild, and for now Ukraine’s resistance is seen as the primary barrier preventing a wider Russian attack.

Eye on Eurasia Special Report: The Ukraine Battlelab

Glen’s Substack • 19 implied HN points • 06 Sep 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Global instability is on the rise because various authoritarian countries are backing Russia, which could lead to more conflicts.
  2. The war has shown how crucial technology is in modern battles, especially with drones and cyber warfare, and the U.S. needs to improve its defense systems against Russian capabilities.
  3. Peace is fragile now, as many countries have the ability and willingness to attack each other, highlighting the importance of keeping arms treaties and agreements.

'World War 3 has already started' between US and Russia/China, argues French scholar

Geopolitical Economy Report • 697 implied HN points • 15 Jan 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. French scholar Emmanuel Todd argues that World War III has begun between the US and Russia/China due to the Ukraine proxy war.
  2. Todd points out that Russia's resilience against Western sanctions challenges the American imperial system and its hold on Europe.
  3. Todd criticizes the overreliance on GDP as a metric, highlighting the adaptive capacity of the Russian economy due to a significant role for the state compared to the US neoliberal economic model.

Is a Peace Deal in Ukraine Possible?

John’s Substack • 7 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Two experts debated whether a peace agreement over the Ukraine war is possible, presenting sharply opposing views.
  2. One side argued a negotiated peace with Europe, Ukraine, and the US could be reached, while the other said no deal is possible and the war will be decided on the battlefield, ending in an armistice that creates a frozen conflict.
  3. The event measured audience opinion with a pre- and post-debate poll to see if views shifted, but the poll results were not disclosed.
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Upheaval in Bashkortostan Signals the Beginning of the End of Putin’s Russia

Glen’s Substack • 19 implied HN points • 05 Sep 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. The protests in Bashkortostan started over environmental issues but are now pushing for independence. People want their land protected and feel it needs to be part of their national identity.
  2. Ignoring the unrest in Bashkortostan could be a mistake. Just like in Estonia years ago, these movements can lead to significant changes in government power and national independence.
  3. Bashkortostan is in a strategic location with a diverse population, making it a vital area for potential independence movements. If the protests grow stronger, it could inspire other regions in Russia to seek their own freedom.

Realism without the Tragedy?

Taipology • 55 implied HN points • 29 Nov 25
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. War often comes from the rise of new powers, and resisting this change can lead to conflict. It's important for existing powers to find a way to incorporate rising powers into the order to avoid war.
  2. Honor, fear, and interest are the main reasons for war, not just economics. Clear communication about boundaries is crucial to prevent misunderstandings that can lead to major conflicts.
  3. Current leaders may lack the imagination to see the dangers of nuclear war. We must remember the lessons of the past and not underestimate the consequences of modern warfare.

The chokepoint behind America’s AI boom

Definite Optimism • 44 implied HN points • 16 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. China controls the vast majority of rare-earth refining and high-performance magnet production, creating a strategic choke point for advanced tech supply chains.
  2. The US AI boom and recent economic growth depend heavily on these critical minerals, and Chinese export controls exposed how vulnerable the US and its allies are, forcing urgent policy shifts.
  3. Addressing this requires a large, sustained industrial push to rebuild mining, refining, and manufacturing capacity in the West — a one-day summit or small measures won’t be enough.

Putin’s high-stakes space gamble aims to bring the US to the table

Glen’s Substack • 19 implied HN points • 05 Sep 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Russia is planning to set up a new anti-satellite system, which could threaten U.S. space assets and communications. They might even use a nuclear weapon in space, which would disrupt electronics on a wide scale.
  2. Putin aims to control low Earth orbit because it's crucial for modern warfare and global communication. This control could help him negotiate better with the U.S. over arms talks.
  3. The U.S. should ignore Putin's threats and focus on improving its own space defenses. It's important for the U.S. to have a strong plan in space to counter Russia's ambitions.

The Putin Pivot

Diane Francis • 839 implied HN points • 04 May 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Countries around the world are stepping away from Putin as his army struggles in Ukraine. People are noticing the ongoing violence and loss of life.
  2. Russia's military is facing big problems, including shortages of ammo and low morale among troops. Many soldiers are unhappy and refuse to fight without proper support.
  3. The battle for Crimea is key for both Ukraine and Russia. If Ukraine can regain control of Crimea, it could lead to a major shift in the war and possibly impact Putin's power.

NY Times is wrong on dedollarization: Economist Michael Hudson debunks Paul Krugman's dollar defense

Geopolitical Economy Report • 518 implied HN points • 16 May 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Economist Michael Hudson debunks Paul Krugman's arguments on de-dollarization, highlighting historical economic misconceptions by Krugman.
  2. Krugman dismisses the importance of controlling the world's reserve currency, arguing it's overrated, but fails to address the impact of capital flows on currency values.
  3. Krugman's defense of the US dollar relies on tautological reasoning, stating the dollar is powerful because it's widely used, without acknowledging geopolitical shifts away from the dollar.

Europe's Israel

Diane Francis • 739 implied HN points • 01 Jun 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Geopolitics
  1. Ukraine is seen as a key ally for Europe, deserving NATO membership due to its strong military and significant contributions against Russia. This support is crucial for Europe's future security.
  2. Military aid from the US has played a vital role in weakening Russia's capabilities, while European nations like Poland and the Baltics are stepping up to provide significant support and military assistance to Ukraine.
  3. Options for Ukraine's security are being discussed, including alternative agreements that would ensure strong protections similar to Israel's model, but NATO membership might not be possible at the upcoming summit.

Chartbook 333 Asia in the age of polycrisis.

Chartbook • 844 implied HN points • 17 Nov 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Asia's fast-growing economies may appear to offer solutions to the West's challenges, but that's not the complete picture.
  2. The concept of 'polycrisis' is relevant to both Asia and the West, suggesting interconnected issues that affect both regions.
  3. Understanding these global challenges requires looking beyond regional success stories and recognizing the shared complexities.

West tells Global South 'you can't be neutral' in Ukraine war: You are either with us, or against us

Geopolitical Economy Report • 558 implied HN points • 22 Feb 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. The foreign ministers of the US, Germany, and Ukraine emphasized that neutrality is not an option in NATO's proxy war with Russia
  2. Majority of the global population, especially in the Global South, have remained neutral in the Ukraine proxy war
  3. There is a historical backdrop of Western attacks on the Non-Aligned Movement, with Western powers trying to paint neutral countries as supporters of the Soviet-led bloc

Poison, Putsch, or Prigozhin?

Diane Francis • 779 implied HN points • 15 May 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Evgeny Prigozhin from Wagner Group is publicly criticizing Russia's military failures, which shows that things might be unstable in the Kremlin. His actions suggest he could be positioning himself for a potential leadership role if there's a regime change.
  2. Russia's military is facing significant issues, with reports of retreats and poor leadership. This might lead to a potential coup where military leaders and oligarchs come together to replace Putin if conditions worsen.
  3. The internal conflict within Russia is growing as Prigozhin highlights the flaws in military strategies. If Russia continues to struggle in the war, the next leader will need to pivot from aggressive nationalism to seek peace and address the country's issues.

Xi blasts US ‘containment, encirclement’ of China, Foreign Ministry slams 'hysterical neo-McCarthyism'

Geopolitical Economy Report • 518 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. President Xi Jinping condemned the US-led Western attempt to contain, encircle, and suppress China.
  2. Foreign Minister Qin Gang criticized the US for pursuing 'hysterical neo-McCarthyism' and aiming to contain and suppress China in all aspects.
  3. Chinese leaders are making assertive statements, signaling a shift in their approach towards standing up against US policies and defending China.

Putin's Ethnic Cleansing

Diane Francis • 959 implied HN points • 18 Mar 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. The International Criminal Court has issued a warrant for Putin, accusing him of war crimes related to the kidnapping and abuse of Ukrainian children. This severely damages his reputation and complicates Russia's relationship with China.
  2. Evidence shows that Russia has committed genocide by forcibly deporting and adopting Ukrainian children without consent. This has caused immense suffering for families and has been documented as a violation of international law.
  3. Negotiating with Putin is deemed impossible because attempts at peace would allow him to retain stolen territories. The situation reflects a larger narrative of unchecked aggression and violence against innocent civilians.

Iran Will Strike Back Hard

John’s Substack • 16 implied HN points • 30 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Peace talks over Ukraine are mostly kabuki theater, and the conflict is likely to be settled on the battlefield.
  2. A US attack on Iran seems doubtful because military force can’t reliably produce regime change, and Iran could retaliate in ways that would be hugely costly for Israel, the US, and the global economy.
  3. There’s real uncertainty about what the US will do next, especially under Trump, and that uncertainty ties into a bigger question about whether the US is entering a Cold War 2.0 with China and Russia.

The Black Sea is now the center of gravity for the Ukraine War

Glen’s Substack • 19 implied HN points • 03 Sep 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. The Black Sea is becoming a key focus in the Ukraine War, especially regarding Crimea. Ukrainian forces aim to weaken Russian military presence in this area.
  2. Ukraine’s naval strategy has been effective, causing significant losses to the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Recent military actions have forced Russia to retreat and protect their ships more closely.
  3. Ukrainian President Zelensky emphasizes the importance of isolating Crimea to reduce attacks on Ukraine. Gaining control in the Black Sea is seen as crucial for the country's defense.

AI Roundup 145: Gemini 3

Artificial Ignorance • 71 implied HN points • 21 Nov 25
🕹 Technology Geopolitics
  1. Google launched Gemini 3 Pro, a powerful new AI model that improves planning, coding, and judgment skills, marking a significant step forward in AI technology.
  2. There's growing worry among tech leaders about a potential bubble in AI investments, with CEOs openly questioning the sustainability of soaring valuations and massive spending.
  3. An upcoming Executive Order may give the federal government power to override state AI laws, which could lead to legal battles and political pushback from within the Republican Party.

German lawmaker denounces Ukraine 'proxy war' and US 'terrorist attack' on Nord Stream pipelines

Geopolitical Economy Report • 538 implied HN points • 24 Feb 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. German lawmaker Sevim Dağdelen criticizes NATO's involvement in Ukraine as a 'proxy war' and highlights the EU acting as 'vassals' to the US.
  2. Dağdelen condemns the economic war against Russia and calls for Europe to assert its independence and prioritize diplomacy to end the conflict in Ukraine.
  3. The lack of outrage over the alleged US 'terrorist attack' on the German-Russian Nord Stream pipelines illustrates Germany's subservience to the US, revealing the need for truth and peace initiatives to counter war propaganda.

How to Make A Fortune on Regime Change!

The Corbett Report • 19 implied HN points • 17 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Prediction markets let people bet real money on geopolitical events and can sometimes pay out large sums to those who predict correctly.
  2. These markets create strong incentives for insider trading, misinformation, and even for powerful actors to manipulate events to profit.
  3. Because of the moral, legal, and security risks — especially with high-profile backers involved — lawmakers and regulators are moving to restrict or oversee these platforms.

NATO/West or Global Majority? Unipolar destruction or multipolar development? The world must choose

Geopolitical Economy Report • 358 implied HN points • 05 Dec 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. The world is at a critical point between NATO/West and the Global Majority, offering a choice between unipolar destruction or multipolar development.
  2. Political economists analyze the fracturing international order, discussing conflicts in Israel, Ukraine, Russia, Argentina, and Europe.
  3. There is a growing polarization within Western countries, with emphasis on pursuing militaristic policies versus policies favoring peace and development in line with other global majority countries like China and Russia.

US blew up Nord Stream pipelines connecting Russia to Germany, journalist Seymour Hersh reports

Geopolitical Economy Report • 558 implied HN points • 11 Feb 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. The US government, with the help of CIA, Navy divers, and NATO member Norway, reportedly destroyed the Nord Stream pipelines connecting Russia to Germany.
  2. There were denial from the White House and CIA about the covert operation, illustrating how they can legally lie to the public about such actions.
  3. US's planning to destroy Nord Stream began before Russia invaded Ukraine, with the operation executed by US Navy divers placing explosives on the pipelines during NATO exercises.

What Will Trump Do About Iran?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 681 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Geopolitics
  1. Iran's position has changed significantly, with its chances of becoming a nuclear state reduced greatly over the past year.
  2. Groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, which once seemed strong, are now facing pressure and even agreeing to ceasefires.
  3. The new president has a chance to take action against Iran and its allies, but it's uncertain if he will seize this opportunity.

Taiwan separatists lose key ally, Honduras recognizes China - just 12 small countries remain

Geopolitical Economy Report • 478 implied HN points • 16 Mar 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Honduras has shifted its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, leaving just 12 small countries supporting Taiwan separatists
  2. The majority of the global population resides in countries recognizing the People's Republic of China while Taiwan is acknowledged officially only by a handful of countries
  3. The decision by Honduras to break ties with Taiwan and embrace China is largely driven by economic factors, especially China's offered assistance in dealing with Honduras' significant economic challenges

Trump's Tariffs and those Goddamned Freeloading Europeans

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 218 implied HN points • 01 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Geopolitics
  1. The United States acts like an imperial power, and it doesn't really do nice things for other countries for free. Its goal is to keep Europe dependent to maintain control.
  2. European nations are more connected through the EU and military alliances to avoid conflict and promote cooperation, but this dependence means they struggle to develop their own independent foreign policies.
  3. Trump's push for Europe to spend more on defense reflects a bigger shift where the U.S. might start pulling back from Europe, making the future relationship more complicated and possibly less favorable for Europe.

All These Israeli Agendas Were Planned Long In Advance

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 526 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Geopolitics
  1. Israel has clear long-term goals in the Middle East and they are taking military actions to achieve them. This includes strengthening their position in Syria and Lebanon while pushing for changes in Gaza and the West Bank.
  2. The narrative around military and political support often has misleading implications. Support for certain countries or actions can sometimes be used to justify violence against innocent people.
  3. There are skeptical views on public figures and their true motives, especially in politics and media. People should be cautious about trusting narratives that seem convenient for powerful interests.

It Profits a Nation Nothing to Give Its Soul for the Whole World . . . But for Greenland?

Gideon's Substack • 19 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Geopolitics
  1. The push to "own" Greenland revives a long-standing American interest, but openly threatening an allied country to get it is unprecedented and alarming.
  2. The United States already has broad military access to Greenland, so trying to acquire it outright looks unnecessary and risks seriously damaging ties with Denmark and other European allies.
  3. The president’s unpredictable theatrics could either spur Europe to rearm and become more strategically independent—which might be beneficial—or alienate allies and push them toward rivals like China, with dangerous long-term costs.

Ukraine conflict ‘caused by Europeans' love of war, hegemony’, says Malaysia's ex leader

Geopolitical Economy Report • 498 implied HN points • 01 Mar 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. According to Malaysia's ex-leader Mahathir Mohamad, the conflict in Ukraine is a result of Europeans' love for war and dominance.
  2. Mahathir warns that the situation could escalate to become the beginning of a Third World War.
  3. He criticizes Western actions that have led to sanctions, shortages of supplies, and tensions in regions like East Asia.

There is a Russia Iran news outlet blackout across the internet.

C.O.P. Central Organizing Principle. • 24 implied HN points • 04 Jan 26
📰 News Geopolitics
  1. Several major Russian state outlets and Iran's Press TV are currently inaccessible online, with sites like RT and TASS showing "website can't be reached" errors.
  2. The outage looks widespread and simultaneous, suggesting it’s more than a simple isolated technical problem.
  3. If the blackout continues, it could significantly disrupt official news flow and change how people access information about events in those countries.

🎇💥 Strike on Iran shows why US doesn't want to lose the AI race

Faster, Please! • 274 implied HN points • 23 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Geopolitics
  1. Keeping up with technology is crucial now. Being behind can mean falling behind in significant areas like defense.
  2. Advanced military tech, like stealth jets and AI, gave a major edge in recent conflicts. This shows how important new tech is in today's warfare.
  3. As AI gets smarter, it could create an even bigger gap in military capabilities. This has people worried about who will lead in future tech.

The Empire Depends On Our Unwillingness To Look At Its Crimes

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 1732 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. The empire relies on people's unwillingness to face its crimes, as looking directly at the unpleasant truth can shatter their worldview.
  2. Mass media propaganda aims to build a worldview loyal to establishment power structures and trap individuals in power-serving echo chambers.
  3. Creating awareness about the empire's atrocities and encouraging people to critically examine the status quo can help break the cycle of indoctrination and bring about change.

US 'neo-imperialist' dollar scheme explained by economist Yanis Varoufakis

Geopolitical Economy Report • 538 implied HN points • 04 Feb 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Economist Yanis Varoufakis explains the US dollar's role in 'neo-imperialism' and how it finances a significant trade deficit worldwide.
  2. Varoufakis challenges the austerity measures imposed by EU/IMF during his time as Greece's finance minister, expressing concerns about the loss of national sovereignty.
  3. Varoufakis continues his activism, forming a political movement, campaigning for Julian Assange's release, and advocating for a new global economic order.

Who speaks of the Armenians?

Wrong Side of History • 731 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. The Armenian genocide in 1915-1917 is often overlooked, despite its horrific nature. Many Armenians fear that the hatred from that time still exists, leading to more violence.
  2. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has roots in historical tensions, but it intensified with recent wars over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Many civilians have suffered and been forced to flee.
  3. Azerbaijan has significant oil and gas resources that influence its global relationships, often overshadowing its human rights abuses. Western countries continue to engage with Baku for energy supplies, ignoring its actions against Armenians.

Introducing the Symposium

The Cosmopolitan Globalist • 7 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. A weekly, open 'Symposium' will replace the strict Middle East course model, offering a new global topic each week with shorter required readings so subscribers can drop in when a topic interests them.
  2. An optional expository writing module will follow the discussion, is cumulative, and asks participants to commit to attending regularly so writing feedback can build over time.
  3. The inaugural session asks whether the liberal international order has collapsed, features Terry Glavin as guest, and comes with an extensive curated reading list, speeches, debates, and study questions to guide the conversation.

The Typology of China Envy

Taipology • 202 implied HN points • 19 Jul 25
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. China has made huge progress, lifting 800 million people out of poverty, and now its economy is too big to ignore. This might change global power dynamics.
  2. Different people have strong and varied opinions about China's growth and political policies, ranging from skeptics to supporters, and these views are shifting as China becomes a more prominent player in the world.
  3. The situation in Taiwan is complex, and while there’s concern about potential conflicts, there’s also hope that China will prioritize peace due to its economic interests.