The hottest Geopolitics Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top World Politics Topics
The Algorithmic Bridge 467 implied HN points 21 Jan 25
  1. DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company, has quickly created competitive AI models that are open-source and cheap. This challenges the idea that the U.S. has a clear lead in AI technology.
  2. Their new model, R1, is comparable to OpenAI's best models, showcasing that they can produce high-quality AI without the same resources. It suggests they might be using innovative methods to build these models efficiently.
  3. DeepSeek’s approach also includes letting their model learn on its own without much human guidance, raising questions about what future AI could look like and how it might think differently than humans.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss 171 implied HN points 06 Feb 25
  1. Trump believes the main issue in the Middle East isn't a Palestinian state, pushing against decades of U.S. policy. He argues that a different approach is needed.
  2. He proposed that the U.S. could take control of Gaza and develop it, suggesting Palestinians could relocate to another country. This idea has sparked both support and backlash.
  3. Trump aims for peace in the region without a Palestinian state, similar to prior agreements with other Arab nations. Critics warn this could lead to more conflict and displacement.
The Saturday Read 119 implied HN points 02 Nov 24
  1. The rise of pop political movements, like MAGA and Thatcherism, show that they can reshape party identity and power dynamics in profound ways. This isn't just a short-term trend; it's likely to stick around.
  2. There's a real worry about the growing alignment of countries in the Brics group, which could change how global politics work. Many leaders aren't addressing this potential shift, leaving concerns about balance of power.
  3. North Korea sending troops to help Russia in Ukraine raises alarms, especially for neighboring countries like South Korea. It's a reminder of how tensions can escalate and lead to a larger conflict.
Simplicius's Garden of Knowledge 13388 implied HN points 29 Oct 24
  1. The situation in Ukraine is escalating with new claims of North Korean troop involvement, but there are doubts about the validity of these reports. It seems like a way to either justify war actions or divert attention from failures.
  2. Russian forces are making significant territorial gains in the south, suggesting they are currently in a strong position. This pressures Ukraine to maintain its last strongholds and potentially call for more foreign assistance.
  3. The European and American media narratives seem increasingly disconnected from reality. There are worries that misinformation and exaggerated claims are leading to misunderstanding and escalation of the conflict.
Doomberg 5751 implied HN points 20 Jan 25
  1. Venezuela used to be one of the world's top oil producers but has seen its production decline by over 80% due to mismanagement and political issues. This has made the country really poor compared to its past.
  2. Maduro, the current president, has taken provocative actions as his power weakens, including making bold statements about 'liberating' Puerto Rico with military help.
  3. Venezuela has huge oil reserves and could be an important energy supply for the U.S., creating a potential interest in the country from U.S. leaders.
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Simplicius's Garden of Knowledge 12389 implied HN points 27 Oct 24
  1. Zelensky suggested that both Ukraine and Russia should stop attacking each other's energy facilities to avoid a harsh winter. This shows that Ukraine's strikes on Russian infrastructure were more about self-defense than actually crippling Russia.
  2. Putin is preparing to offer different negotiation terms depending on the outcome of the US presidential elections. He is looking to use these negotiations to maintain control over the territories gained in Ukraine.
  3. Ukraine is facing significant troop shortages, which is leading to a decrease in military mobilization. There are discussions about lowering the draft age, highlighting the urgency for Ukraine to bolster its forces.
Marcus on AI 11777 implied HN points 28 Jan 25
  1. DeepSeek is not smarter than older models. It just costs less to train, which doesn't mean it's better overall.
  2. It still has issues with reliability and can be expensive to run if you want it to 'think' for longer.
  3. DeepSeek may change the AI market and pose challenges for companies like OpenAI, but it doesn't bring us closer to achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI).
Common Sense with Bari Weiss 1460 implied HN points 03 Feb 25
  1. Alice Nderitu was a UN adviser on genocide prevention but lost her job for not calling Israel's actions against Hamas genocide. Her situation has raised concerns about political pressure within the UN.
  2. Some view Nderitu's dismissal as part of a larger issue of bias against Israel in UN discussions. A recent article praised her for not bending to political agendas.
  3. Nderitu spoke out after attending a memorial for Holocaust victims, connecting her experience to historical injustices and the importance of speaking the truth.
Marcus on AI 4624 implied HN points 29 Jan 25
  1. In the race for AI, China is catching up to the U.S. despite export controls. This shows that innovation can thrive under pressure.
  2. DeepSeek suggests we can achieve AI advancements with fewer resources than previously thought. Efficient ideas might trump just having lots of technology.
  3. Instead of just funding big companies, we need to support smaller, innovative startups. Better ideas can lead to more successful technology than just having more money.
Caitlin’s Newsletter 2207 implied HN points 02 Feb 25
  1. Tom Cotton believes the US cares more about countries being pro-American than about them being democratic. This shows a focus on power over principles.
  2. The article highlights a pattern where politicians will support friendly dictators over democratically elected leaders if it aligns with US interests.
  3. It suggests that the actions of both the Democratic and Republican parties in foreign policy often prioritize US hegemony rather than genuine democratic values.
Chartbook 371 implied HN points 31 Jan 25
  1. Global industrial production is shifting. This means how and where things are made around the world is changing.
  2. There is a trend called a 'hog-cycle' in container shipping. This affects how goods are transported and the availability of containers.
  3. Historical events, like the Czech reserves and Korean coups in 1979, can help us understand current global shifts and economic patterns.
Noahpinion 24588 implied HN points 18 Jan 25
  1. The Middle East is moving away from constant warfare, with many regions experiencing peace. This shift could lead to economic recovery as people focus on constructive opportunities.
  2. Technology and geography are becoming more favorable for the Middle East. Innovations like cheap solar power and desalination can help support growth in a region with traditionally limited resources.
  3. The region's demographics are shifting positively, providing a 'demographic dividend.' With a more balanced age structure, there is great potential for economic development and workforce growth in the coming years.
ChinaTalk 4002 implied HN points 26 Jan 25
  1. Export restrictions on AI chips only recently started, so it’s too soon to judge their effectiveness. The new chips might still perform well for AI tasks, keeping development ongoing.
  2. DeepSeek's advancements in efficiency show that machine learning can get cheaper over time. It’s possible for smaller companies to do more with less, but bigger companies benefits from these efficiencies too.
  3. The gap in computing power between the US and China is significant. DeepSeek admits they need much more computing power than US companies to achieve similar results due to export controls.
Simplicius's Garden of Knowledge 8572 implied HN points 22 Oct 24
  1. Russia's military production is increasing rapidly, even surpassing the losses they faced in Ukraine. This means they are becoming stronger despite the conflict.
  2. Ukraine's air defense is not as effective as reported, with lower interception rates than the government claims. This highlights a gap between what is being communicated and the reality on the ground.
  3. Germany's military capabilities are struggling to keep up, and in some areas, they are declining. They would need up to 100 years to rebuild their military stockpiles to past levels, in stark contrast to Russia's quick production capabilities.
Simplicius's Garden of Knowledge 11510 implied HN points 19 Oct 24
  1. Zelensky has suggested that Ukraine's security depends on either NATO membership or nuclear capabilities. This has raised significant concerns and discussions among Western allies.
  2. A Ukrainian official claimed that Ukraine could quickly create nuclear weapons if necessary, although this was later denied by Zelensky's office amid backlash.
  3. The nuclear threats appear to be aimed more at pressuring Ukraine's allies than at Russia itself, highlighting Ukraine's desperation for support in the ongoing conflict.
Noahpinion 50647 implied HN points 02 Jan 25
  1. War is a real and serious threat in today's world, especially with rising tensions between powerful nations. People often don't understand the huge impact it can have on everyday lives.
  2. Taiwan is an interesting example of how a place can seem peaceful and happy even when there's a looming danger. The people go on with their lives, not fully feeling the weight of possible conflict.
  3. Humanity can see into the future, which is a curse because it brings anxiety. But this awareness can also help prepare for tough times ahead, making it important to take action rather than just waiting.
The Upheaval 887 implied HN points 20 Jan 25
  1. China sees taking over Taiwan as a crucial goal to establish itself as a world superpower. They've set deadlines for this, with some leaders believing they need to act soon before circumstances change.
  2. The U.S. military faces serious challenges in defending Taiwan, including its reliance on long supply chains and manufacturing that could leave it vulnerable in a conflict. This might make it hard to respond quickly if an invasion happens.
  3. Defending Taiwan is not just about supporting democracy; it's about protecting U.S. interests globally. Losing Taiwan could shake the U.S.'s standing in the world and lead to a big economic crisis at home.
Simplicius's Garden of Knowledge 12909 implied HN points 17 Oct 24
  1. Zelensky presented a 'Victory Plan' for Ukraine that hopes to invite NATO membership and ramp up military support. Many people found his ideas unrealistic and lacking substance.
  2. One key point of the plan suggests deploying a strong military deterrent to protect Ukraine from Russia. This has raised concerns about the possible involvement of NATO forces on the ground.
  3. Concerns are growing over the U.S.'s ability to support Ukraine indefinitely, with officials stating they can't provide unlimited resources. This hints at potential limits to Ukraine's military ambitions.
The Chris Hedges Report 375 implied HN points 01 Feb 25
  1. Gaza is facing a severe humanitarian crisis with no clean water or food, leading to widespread sickness and suffering among its population.
  2. The ongoing violence and destruction in Gaza are seen as part of a larger strategy to control resources and land, with little support from international allies to stop it.
  3. Historical patterns of genocide and oppression are highlighted, stressing that current actions are not unique, but rather resemble past atrocities committed by powerful nations against marginalized groups.
Simplicius's Garden of Knowledge 12429 implied HN points 15 Oct 24
  1. Ukraine is facing increasing military pressure from Russia, and the situation for Ukraine seems to be worsening. There are discussions about possibly giving up some territory to reach a peace deal.
  2. Germany is cutting its financial support for Ukraine significantly, leading to concerns about the future of military assistance. This reduction could impact Ukraine's ability to sustain its defense.
  3. Zelensky is expected to address the Ukrainian parliament soon, where he may propose a new plan for victory, but there are hints that this plan might involve compromises regarding territory.
Chartbook 371 implied HN points 30 Jan 25
  1. Amerikanizm can have impacts on tariffs and inflation. This means policies can affect prices and trade in significant ways.
  2. The UK's productivity is not improving much, which suggests challenges in its economy. This stagnation can lead to slower growth and less innovation.
  3. There are increasing risks related to war for businesses. Companies might face uncertainties that could influence their operations and profits.
Simplicius's Garden of Knowledge 13029 implied HN points 11 Oct 24
  1. Ukraine's situation is worsening as they struggle against renewed Russian advances. Zelensky is seeking support from allies to end the conflict but is facing growing pressures.
  2. There are discussions about a potential ceasefire, but Zelensky is caught between showing strength and the reality of needing to make concessions. He wants to maintain the appearance of not giving up land.
  3. Infighting and low morale are rising among pro-Ukrainian supporters. Many feel that the West won't provide the necessary support to achieve victory against Russia.
Simplicius's Garden of Knowledge 13848 implied HN points 06 Oct 24
  1. Ukrainian troops are facing major issues, like mutinies and lack of resources. Many soldiers are unwilling to fight due to insufficient training and equipment.
  2. The fall of Ugledar shows how serious the losses are for Ukraine. Brigades are being dramatically reduced in numbers, with some units losing nearly all their members.
  3. There's a growing sentiment among Ukrainian soldiers and officials that negotiations might be necessary to end the conflict. Many are feeling the emotional and physical toll of the ongoing war.
God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger 95 implied HN points 22 Jan 25
  1. World orders are more stable than empires. They are shaped by economics, culture, and global interactions, and they can last much longer than the empires that create them.
  2. The West has a history of expansion and exploitation. This history affects how current global dynamics play out, especially between nations.
  3. Understanding these world orders helps us see where we are headed next. We need to look at past strategies and how they impact today's politics and society.
Simplicius's Garden of Knowledge 11030 implied HN points 08 Oct 24
  1. Ukraine may consider giving up some land to stop the fighting, as they can't easily challenge Russia's control. Western allies are worried about the ongoing conflict and its costs.
  2. Russia wants a permanent solution to the conflict, not just a temporary ceasefire. They have specific demands, like Ukraine remaining neutral and giving up certain territories.
  3. There are doubts about whether the U.S. or NATO would back Ukraine joining their alliance, as this could lead to more tensions. Trusting outside nations to guarantee Ukraine's neutrality is also a big issue.
Simplicius's Garden of Knowledge 14008 implied HN points 04 Oct 24
  1. Israel faced significant challenges with its air defenses when Iranian missile strikes were more successful than previous attacks. This suggests that Iran has been learning and improving its strategies.
  2. There's a mix of opinions about whether Iran was really trying to hit specific targets or just sending a message. Some believe the strikes were accurate while others think they were done to avoid major damage.
  3. Tensions are rising as Israel and the US are contemplating serious military responses against Iran, while Iran has managed to strengthen ties with other countries like Saudi Arabia amidst these conflicts.
Noahpinion 9706 implied HN points 09 Jan 25
  1. Taiwan has a unique culture that combines influences from both Chinese and Japanese traditions. It's famous for its delicious food and vibrant nightlife, making it a fun place to visit.
  2. Taiwan's public health system is highly effective, demonstrated by how well they handled the COVID-19 pandemic. They used strict measures and technology to keep their population safe.
  3. Taiwan is a progressive society, leading in areas like gender equality and LGBTQ+ rights. It's known for being tolerant and open-minded, setting an example in a region often dominated by conservatism.
The Honest Broker Newsletter 4357 implied HN points 13 Jan 25
  1. Geopolitics often influences climate policies more than climate science itself. Countries prioritize their own interests over global climate agreements.
  2. The belief that scientific knowledge would automatically lead to climate action has proven overly optimistic. Many expected that understanding climate issues would unite nations, but it hasn't happened.
  3. Adapting to climate change is a slow process. The world will continue to gradually change, but there won't be a simple or happy resolution to the challenges posed by a warming planet.
Glenn’s Substack 1798 implied HN points 27 Sep 24
  1. The Nord Stream pipeline attack severed Europe's energy ties with Russia, leading to significant economic changes for both regions.
  2. Initially, the US and NATO blamed Russia for the attack, but later reports suggested that Ukraine might have been involved while evidence pointed to a possible US connection.
  3. As the narrative around the attack evolved, European nations began to turn against each other, showing tensions and doubts about their alliances.
Pieter’s Newsletter 259 implied HN points 28 Oct 24
  1. Israel's recent attack on Iran was smart and planned, aiming to weaken Iran's defenses without causing much harm to civilians.
  2. The attack has raised doubts about Iran's leadership and how they protect their citizens, leading to growing discontent among the Iranian people.
  3. The situation highlights a stark contrast between Israel's modern military and Iran's struggling forces, showing a potential for change in the region.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss 3046 implied HN points 15 Jan 25
  1. Israel is close to making a deal with Hamas to release captives. The first step involves freeing 33 hostages, including children and the elderly.
  2. The deal has three phases that could lead to the end of the conflict, but each phase relies on the success of the previous one.
  3. If the deal works, it will bring mixed feelings in Israel, with joy for the hostages' return but also anger and disappointment about the circumstances.
Crypto Trader Digest 2023 implied HN points 15 Oct 24
  1. A Persistent Weak Layer (PWL) in avalanche science is a weak layer of snow that can lead to dangerous avalanches. Understanding these layers is important for safety in avalanche-prone areas.
  2. Geopolitical conflicts, especially in the Middle East, can create financial market risks. Issues like energy price spikes and military actions can substantially impact investments, particularly in crypto markets.
  3. Bitcoin could potentially rise in value if energy prices go up due to geopolitical conflicts. It is seen as a store of value, especially during times of inflation or war, making careful management of investment positions crucial.
ChinaTalk 741 implied HN points 22 Jan 25
  1. ChinaTalk started as a small project and has grown to have 50,000 subscribers by focusing on tech developments in China.
  2. They aim to provide deep analysis on China's tech landscape, especially regarding AI, to help people understand its global impact.
  3. In 2025, ChinaTalk plans to expand into a think tank, hiring more staff to enhance their research and outreach efforts.
Wood From Eden 1728 implied HN points 24 Jan 25
  1. Africa's population is growing quickly and will represent a large part of the world in the future. It's important for the rest of the world to pay attention to this change.
  2. Ignoring Africa's potential problems could lead to bigger issues later on. We may need to think about ways to help cope with possible crises.
  3. Instead of only debating about challenges in Africa, we should start thinking of solutions now. Preparing early can help everyone in the future.
Glenn’s Substack 1199 implied HN points 24 Sep 24
  1. NATO is seen by some as outdated and stuck in Cold War thinking. It focuses on dividing the world into good and evil, which may not lead to real security.
  2. The expansion of NATO has created conflicts rather than resolving them. This approach often leads to more militarization and tensions with countries like Russia.
  3. There's a call for a new way of thinking about security that includes cooperation with former adversaries instead of forming exclusive military alliances.
Why is this interesting? 784 implied HN points 16 Jan 25
  1. Watches can be much more than just timepieces; they often have interesting histories and connections to culture. The Khanjar dial watches from Oman are a perfect example, blending royal recognition with unique design.
  2. Some watches, like the Khanjar models, are given as gifts and can become valuable over time. A watch gifted to a pilot once sold for £600,000 at auction, showcasing how special pieces can gain worth.
  3. Today, Khanjar dial watches are still given out with discreet engravings, making them rare collectibles. They appeal to watch lovers for their unique stories and connections to royal heritage.
Doomberg 5608 implied HN points 16 Dec 24
  1. The U.S. has tightened sanctions on China, particularly in the semiconductor industry, to weaken its tech growth. This move aims to limit China's access to advanced chip manufacturing technology.
  2. In response, China has imposed its own export restrictions, targeting materials critical for the tech industry in the U.S. This indicates that both countries are in an escalating trade war.
  3. China's efforts to develop its own semiconductor capabilities are showing significant progress, raising concerns about its growing self-sufficiency in this critical industry.
Glenn’s Substack 1278 implied HN points 23 Sep 24
  1. NATO's involvement in Ukraine has escalated tensions and contributed to the conflict. This involvement is seen as a major factor in Russia's decision to invade Ukraine.
  2. There were opportunities for peace that were sabotaged by Western leaders, showing that the conflict has become a proxy war. This raises concerns that Ukraine is being used as a tool in a larger geopolitical struggle.
  3. The situation risks escalating to a nuclear war as Russia views NATO's presence as an existential threat. The current standoff is very dangerous, and many feel it could lead to severe consequences.
Democratizing Automation 229 implied HN points 27 Jan 25
  1. Chinese AI labs are now leading the way in open-source models, surpassing their American counterparts. This shift could have significant impacts on global technology and geopolitics.
  2. A variety of new AI models and datasets are emerging, particularly focused on reasoning and long-context capabilities. These innovations are making it easier to tackle complex tasks in coding and math.
  3. Companies like IBM and Microsoft are quietly making strides with their AI models, showing that many players in the market are developing competitive technology that might not get as much attention.
Glenn’s Substack 1039 implied HN points 24 Sep 24
  1. The conflict in Gaza is spreading and could bring in more countries, which worries local leaders facing protests for not being tougher against Israel and the US.
  2. Ukraine is struggling with a lack of resources, and the situation is getting worse as public support is fading and political divisions grow.
  3. Both the Middle East and Ukraine are heading towards major wars, and the US seems to lack a clear plan to deal with these rising tensions.