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Mortgage equity withdrawal was only slightly positive in Q4. Mortgage debt rose about $99 billion, indicating homeowners only modestly tapped home equity.
Mortgage debt as a share of GDP is about 43.8%, well below the housing‑bubble peak, so most homeowners still have large equity cushions (homeowner equity around 71%).
Much of the increase in mortgage debt likely reflects home purchases and routine changes like principal payments or debt write‑offs, so true cash‑out borrowing is limited and the 'home ATM' remains mostly closed.

Household debt is very high and still rising, with delinquencies increasing; student loans and mortgages in lower-income areas are showing the most strain.
Real interest rates are now positive, so borrowing is more expensive and many loans and projects that relied on cheap refinancing are being exposed.
The hardest hit will be lower-income regions, weak labor markets, and sectors built on easy credit, and while some deleveraging is a normal correction, the adjustment could be sharp if asset prices or liquidity worsen.

The housing bubble was visible as a sharp rise in mortgage debt relative to GDP, but current mortgage debt as a share of GDP does not show the same alarming pattern.
Lending standards are much stronger now, and most recent mortgage originations come from borrowers with reasonably good credit.
Most homeowners have significant equity and affordable, low-rate mortgages, so a large wave of distressed sales and cascading price declines is unlikely.

Household debt rose in Q4 2025, driven by increases in mortgage balances and higher credit card balances.
Delinquency rates edged up as more mortgages moved into 30–60 day late status and fewer loans cured back to current, while foreclosures increased slightly but remain below pre‑pandemic levels.
Mortgage originations show strong credit quality (median score ~775) with almost no new loans to borrowers below 620, reflecting much tighter underwriting than during the housing bubble.

Mortgage equity withdrawal was slightly positive in Q3, meaning homeowners overall pulled out a little equity but not anywhere near the bubble-era levels.
Mortgage debt rose by $108 billion in Q3 (the same as Q2), though a good share of that borrowing is for buying homes rather than tapping existing equity.
Mortgage debt as a share of GDP is down to about 43.9% from its bubble peak, so most homeowners now have large equity cushions and few are in negative equity, meaning the “home ATM” is mostly closed.

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Total credit card debt in the US surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in history, with high interest rates reaching an average of 20.68% in May 2023.
Credit card delinquencies hit an 11-year high in the second quarter of 2023, with 2.77% of all credit card payments being missed.
Delinquency rates for home mortgages and commercial loans are remarkably low, contrasting sharply with the concerning trend of rising credit card debt and delinquencies.