The hottest Intelligence Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Technology Topics

Five books that impressed me this year

Klement on Investing • 6 implied HN points • 02 Dec 25
📚 Literature Intelligence
  1. Geopolitical and security risks are real and urgent — Russia’s aggression, cyber attacks, and the danger of nuclear escalation mean countries need strong civil defence, resilient digital systems, and capable intelligence. Digital tools like Estonia’s e‑ID show how preparedness and technology can make a big difference.
  2. Understanding political history and terms matters because fascism is not the same as Nazism, and democratic rights can be eroded slowly through intimidation and legal changes. Vigilance and clear definition help people spot and resist authoritarian shifts.
  3. Clear, entertaining science writing can both teach and debunk myths — manned deep‑space travel and wormholes are far less practical than popular imagination suggests. We can learn far more safely and cheaply with probes and good physics.

Nonhuman Intelligence

Cremieux Recueil • 199 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
🔬 Science Intelligence
  1. It's challenging to compare intelligence between humans and nonhuman species like apes due to the lack of suitable cognitive tests.
  2. Machine intelligence testing is complex, and comparing it to human intelligence is not straightforward.
  3. Comparing intelligence across different groups may be hindered by factors like age and methodological barriers.

Intelligence Superabundance

Not Boring by Packy McCormick • 360 implied HN points • 17 Apr 23
🕹 Technology Intelligence
  1. The increased supply of intelligence will create more demand for tasks that require intelligence
  2. With intelligence superabundance, humans may work the same amount of time but achieve much more
  3. As the supply of intelligence grows, humans may need to do more, better, rather than losing jobs

What Does Palantir Actually DO?

The Corbett Report • 30 implied HN points • 22 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Intelligence
  1. Palantir is heavily involved in surveillance and data mining, providing software that helps government agencies track and analyze people’s actions and behaviors.
  2. The company uses its technology for predictive policing, trying to foresee criminal activities before they happen, which raises concerns about privacy and wrongful arrests.
  3. Palantir's reach has expanded into various sectors, including military contracts and retail, where it helps companies optimize operations at the potential cost of worker privacy.

Putin Punks America

Diane Francis • 439 implied HN points • 13 May 21
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Intelligence
  1. The recent cyberattack on a major U.S. oil pipeline is believed to have ties to Russia and may have been orchestrated by hackers linked to the Russian government.
  2. The U.S. faces serious vulnerability to cyberattacks, as many critical infrastructures lack proper security, and major attacks have increased recently.
  3. There are calls for the U.S. to take stronger actions against Russia, such as sanctions or shutting down important pipelines that benefit Russia economically.
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The Hot Minute War (Part Two)

Dr. Pippa's Pen & Podcast • 31 implied HN points • 16 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Intelligence
  1. AI is now playing a major role in how wars are fought, with tech leaders being integrated into military operations. This shift means that high-ranking tech executives are being granted significant roles in the armed forces.
  2. There's a connection between local and global protests about wealth redistribution, showing how ideas from past events can repeat themselves. Movements in places like Iran and college campuses in the U.S. are linked by a common goal of social justice.
  3. The government is gathering evidence on organized protests to create a clearer picture of who is behind them. This means that they are allowing certain actions to unfold to build cases for future legal or diplomatic responses.

Commentator

Castalia • 79 implied HN points • 26 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Intelligence
  1. The recent U.S. intelligence leak highlights serious security flaws and morale issues within the military. Access to sensitive information seems too lax, allowing unauthorized personnel to leak crucial documents.
  2. AI technology is increasingly being used in censorship, affecting how we communicate and share information. Restrictions based on certain topics show that platforms are enforcing strict guidelines that may stifle open discourse.
  3. Emmanuel Macron's recent comments on global conflicts indicate a growing pressure in Europe for a more independent foreign policy. His stance may weaken NATO's unity in facing challenges from Russia and China during critical times.

Vlad's Rad

Diane Francis • 319 implied HN points • 02 Sep 21
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Intelligence
  1. The Havana Syndrome is a mysterious illness affecting U.S. diplomats and spies, with symptoms linked to strange sounds and neurological damage. This has prompted an investigation by a CIA task force.
  2. Officials suspect that advanced microwave technology may be involved, but there’s still no clear evidence of how it works or who is responsible. This raises concerns about hybrid warfare tactics.
  3. Past incidents, like the attacks on diplomats in Cuba and China, indicate a pattern of targeting U.S. officials, leading experts to believe the attacks could qualify as acts of war.

Who did 9/11? Whodunnit? Court Filing Shows The CIA (FBI, etc.) Dunnit

Global Community Weekly (GloCom) • 39 implied HN points • 23 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Intelligence
  1. Former FBI Special Agent Rossini had advance knowledge of 9/11 but did nothing to stop the attacks
  2. Court filing suggests troubling CIA links to two 9/11 hijackers, raising questions about recruitment and coverups
  3. CIA's Alec Station had unusual practices and operatives failed upwards after 9/11 attacks, raising doubts about their intentions

THE FALL OF BASHAR ASSAD

Seymour Hersh • 60 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics Intelligence
  1. Bashar Assad's Syria had a complicated relationship with the US. Despite being labeled as a sponsor of terrorism, Syria was actually providing valuable intelligence against Al Qaeda.
  2. The US invasion of Iraq in 2003 was a controversial decision that didn't directly target the real source of terrorism, as Saddam Hussein was not associated with Islamist groups. This raised questions about the rationale behind the war.
  3. A little-known incident occurred during the Iraq War when American forces attacked Syrians on the border. Despite the deaths, Syria chose not to retaliate publicly, highlighting a tense but intricate geopolitical situation.

Data, Despair, and the FLOWBEE

Data People Etc. • 266 implied HN points • 13 Mar 23
💼 Business Intelligence
  1. Data professionals may feel isolated due to externalized intelligence and lack of integration into daily activities.
  2. Thinkers in organizations may become untethered without proper recognition and integration with doers.
  3. To be effective, thinkers must be tightly integrated into their environment and endorsed by leadership.

June 25, 2025

Letters from an American • 21 implied HN points • 26 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Intelligence
  1. Trump is trying to convince people that U.S. strikes against Iran's nuclear program were a huge success, despite reports saying the damage was minimal.
  2. There is tension between the Trump administration and Congress over sharing details about the strikes, with Democrats claiming they're being kept in the dark.
  3. Some experts worry that the strikes might actually push Iran closer to developing a nuclear weapon rather than stopping them.

That leaked intelligence report

The Cosmopolitan Globalist • 20 implied HN points • 26 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Intelligence
  1. The recent intelligence report suggests that the U.S. military strikes on Iran did not fully destroy its nuclear program, and it may be back up and running in just a few months.
  2. There are strong debates about the effectiveness of the military action, with some claiming it only caused minimal setbacks, while others argue it inflicted significant damage on Iran's nuclear capabilities.
  3. Concerns about the accuracy and reliability of leaked intelligence reports highlight the potential for misinformation and confusion regarding national security matters.

Picking a Proven Winner: NRO and Starshield

Ill-Defined Space • 47 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Intelligence
  1. The National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) is rapidly deploying satellites using SpaceX's Starshield, increasing its satellite fleet significantly in a short time. This means they are becoming more reliant on a single company for their satellite manufacturing needs.
  2. In contrast, the Space Development Agency (SDA) is struggling to build a solid supply chain and is concerned about its satellite manufacturers. They need to make and deploy a larger number of satellites than currently planned.
  3. The NRO's approach may help it quickly achieve its goals, but it raises questions about the risk of depending heavily on SpaceX for critical military capabilities.

Did German domestic intelligence services collaborate with Correctiv journalists to smear Alternative für Deutschland and incite the current wave of protests "against the right"?

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 137 implied HN points • 27 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Intelligence
  1. There are suspicions of collaboration between German domestic intelligence and Correctiv journalists to incite protests against the right.
  2. Correctiv, a non-profit funded by left-leaning entities, published a questionable exposé that sparked controversy.
  3. The events raise concerns about political manipulation and staged protests orchestrated by major parties.

Into Siberia: The Long Arm of Ukrainian Intelligence and the Green Wedge

Glen’s Substack • 19 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Intelligence
  1. Ukrainian intelligence conducted bold and strategic attacks deep inside Russia, impacting Russian trade routes and signaling a vulnerability in Siberia.
  2. The Green Wedge, a large Ukrainian community in the Russian Far East, poses a security threat to Moscow and has historical significance in Ukrainian nationalism.
  3. The recent railway attacks in Siberia will likely escalate into a broader Ukrainian sabotage campaign in the Russian Far East, affecting Russian-China trade relations and military logistics.

TRUMP'S FIRST COVID MISTAKE

Seymour Hersh • 43 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Intelligence
  1. There was early intelligence about the COVID virus from Wuhan that indicated urgent action was needed. However, the response from leadership was slow and ineffective.
  2. The U.S. intelligence community had credible sources warning about a laboratory accident in Wuhan, but this information was not acted upon promptly.
  3. Many critical studies and warnings from health experts were reportedly erased from records to protect the president, suggesting a significant mismanagement of the crisis.

Top AIs still fail IQ tests

Maximum Truth • 118 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
🔬 Science Intelligence
  1. Top AIs still struggle with IQ tests, showing limitations in understanding logic and spatial patterns.
  2. AI's strength lies in database knowledge and pattern matching rather than general intelligence.
  3. Current AIs, like ChatGPT-4, perform only slightly better than random guessers on IQ tests, indicating a lack of generalized intelligence.

Intelligence Failure in Threat Detection

Rhythms of Research • 19 implied HN points • 05 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Intelligence
  1. Analysis and operation both require prioritization, leading to risks of surprise and inadequate response
  2. Threat intelligence enables better prioritization to focus on effective detection and prevention efforts
  3. Compensate for risks of prioritization by asking hard, self-reflective questions about unlikely events

Choosing Wisely: NRO and SDA Acquisitions

Ill-Defined Space • 38 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Intelligence
  1. The National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) is ahead in deploying satellites compared to the Space Development Agency (SDA). This is important because faster satellite deployment can improve national security.
  2. The missions of the NRO and SDA are different. The NRO supports a wide range of intelligence needs, while the SDA is focused mainly on helping U.S. military forces detect missile threats.
  3. Both agencies are trying to fix slow satellite acquisition processes. The NRO's partnership with SpaceX is helping them deploy quickly, while the SDA is still working on building a robust supply chain for their satellites.

How To Identify A Good Programmer

Morad’s Substack • 7 HN points • 24 Apr 24
🕹 Technology Intelligence
  1. Passion is a key indicator of a good programmer - they should be enthusiastic about programming, even outside of work.
  2. Good programmers love learning and are self-teaching, constantly exploring new technologies without needing formal training.
  3. Intelligence is crucial for a good programmer - they are smart, have various interests, and usually start programming before university or formal education.

As Israel Reels From Mass Deaths and a Seeming Intel Failure, Evidence Mounts of Negligence By Netanyahu—Or Maybe Something More Sinister

Proof • 136 implied HN points • 09 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Intelligence
  1. Israel's intelligence services failed to foresee a massive invasion, leading to questions about negligence by Netanyahu.
  2. Netanyahu's political maneuvers and focus on the West Bank may have distracted from potential threats in Gaza.
  3. Netanyahu's actions before and during the crisis raise concerns about his motivations and willingness to create or allow a crisis to benefit his political agenda.

The Carnot Belief Engine

Data People Etc. • 177 implied HN points • 08 May 23
📖 Philosophy Intelligence
  1. Belief engines like Twitter manipulate beliefs through structured processes.
  2. Changing beliefs involves expanding to new ideas and compressing back to defaults.
  3. Learning processes, like machine learning, follow cycles of expansion and compression.

THE SEALS AND THE DHOW

Seymour Hersh • 94 implied HN points • 15 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Intelligence
  1. A Navy SEAL mission in the Gulf of Aden went wrong, resulting in two deaths and one critical injury due to a risky boarding attempt on a dhow suspected of carrying weaponry.
  2. The decision to proceed with the mission in rough seas, despite safety concerns, led to tragedy and prompted questions about the reasoning behind it.
  3. The outcome of the mission revealed outdated cargo not matching the initial intelligence, sparking criticism and calls for accountability within the SEAL community.

Explaining Anomalous GCSE Results

Cremieux Recueil • 90 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
🚌 Education Intelligence
  1. Some Black African students in the UK perform better on GCSE exams than on IQ tests, leading to a puzzle that is not easily explained by sampling differences.
  2. The discrepancy between GCSE performance and general intelligence indicates that GCSEs may be biased indicators of intelligence, favoring certain groups over others.
  3. Psychometric bias might explain why Black Africans in the UK excel in GCSEs despite IQ tests suggesting otherwise, highlighting the presence of biases in assessment methods.

Wars Within Wars: Deep State/Counter State, 4th Estate, AI & SPQR (Part One)

Dr. Pippa's Pen & Podcast • 37 implied HN points • 02 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Intelligence
  1. There was a possibility for peace in Ukraine, with leaders agreeing to negotiate, but actions by the US and UK changed that.
  2. The introduction of long-range weapons by the US and UK means they are now seen as direct targets by Russia, escalating the danger.
  3. Many experts agree this war is unwinnable for Ukraine, so continuing the fight raises serious concerns about a larger conflict, including nuclear risks.

We Just Don't Understand People

Integrity Talk • 99 implied HN points • 26 Nov 23
📖 Philosophy Intelligence
  1. Understanding people's minds is complex, mostly based on intuition rather than rational thinking.
  2. Our ability to predict behaviors is limited, even with simpler organisms like ants.
  3. Social norms heavily influence our ability to understand others, but the depths of the human mind remain mysterious.

A Case for Moderate IQ Skepticism

Tom Thought • 19 implied HN points • 31 Oct 23
🔬 Science Intelligence
  1. Performance on cognitive tasks is correlated, so individuals who excel in one area tend to excel in others as well.
  2. IQ tests are useful in predicting various life outcomes, but it's important to recognize that they are not a direct measure of intelligence.
  3. It's crucial to be skeptical of assigning deep meaning to specific IQ scores, especially when comparing across different populations.

Understanding™, or the computational theory of mind

Silicon Reckoner • 19 implied HN points • 12 Feb 23
📖 Philosophy Intelligence
  1. The computational theory of mind is based on a metaphor and tends to take symbolic logic too seriously.
  2. Trademarked concepts like intelligence™ may limit the full understanding of intelligence by excluding certain human emotions like wonder and anxiety.
  3. Understanding in mathematics involves knowing what to calculate and having the technical skill to make those calculations.

He Just Can't Win: After Enduring Chinese Balloon Criticism, Republican Calls Biden 'Trigger-happy'

The Washington Current • 19 implied HN points • 13 Feb 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Intelligence
  1. Republicans criticize Biden for not acting on Chinese spy balloon, then call him 'trigger-happy' for taking down other objects.
  2. US shot down multiple unidentified flying objects after the Chinese balloon incident, raising security concerns.
  3. Increased vigilance post-balloon incident leads to heightened detection of aerial objects in the US and Canada.

GPT-4 invalidates the Turing test

Gray Mirror • 110 implied HN points • 13 Apr 23
🕹 Technology Intelligence
  1. Large language models like GPT-4 are not AI, but they are powerful tools that connect patterns and rely on intuition.
  2. The Turing test is not a valid test for AGI, as machines like LLMs can invalidate it by excelling in certain tasks while lacking in others.
  3. Understanding the difference between general and special intelligence is key to not overestimating the capabilities of tools like GPT-4.

Pentagon is Combining Corporate Records and Social Media Surveillance to Guide Hacking and Influence Operations

All-Source Intelligence Fusion • 101 implied HN points • 27 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Intelligence
  1. Pentagon is combining corporate records and social media surveillance for hacking and influence operations.
  2. Corporate surveillance firms were discussing providing bulk surveillance data for purposes like protecting the NATO brand.
  3. U.S. military and intelligence agencies are developing offensive information warfare industry using social media surveillance, corporate records analysis, and cellphone location-tracking.

MY FIFTY YEARS WITH DAN ELLSBERG

Seymour Hersh • 107 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Intelligence
  1. Seymour Hersh had a close and impactful relationship with Dan Ellsberg for over 50 years, centered around Vietnam War discussions and shared experiences.
  2. Dan Ellsberg played a crucial role in leaking the Pentagon Papers and exposing White House abuses during the Vietnam War era.
  3. Ellsberg's dedication to truth and exposing secret operations, even at personal risk, left a lasting impact on those around him.

The Physics of Intelligence

Breaking Smart • 99 implied HN points • 07 Apr 23
🔬 Science Intelligence
  1. The physics of intelligence is not substrate dependent, similar to the physics of flight.
  2. The key questions in understanding the physics of intelligence relate to attention, memory, and the relationship between intelligence and information.
  3. Intelligence is not just about computation, but also about embodiment and specific interactions within the universe.