Ill-Defined Space

Ill-Defined Space covers the space sector's business, activities, and outcomes, focusing on launch providers, satellite constellations, and global space activities. It discusses industry challenges, advancements, and the increasing role of smallsats, alongside strategic moves by companies and nations aiming to expand their presence in space.

Space Industry Trends Launch Providers and Rockets Satellite Constellations Global Space Activities Space Policy and Regulation Smallsat Ecosystem Spacecraft Operations Space Industry Forecasts Environmental Concerns in Space

The hottest Substack posts of Ill-Defined Space

And their main takeaways

Europe’s Need for Space Sovereignty: Launch

19 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
🌍 World Politics International relations Defense Strategy Economic Cooperation
  1. Europe needs to take real steps towards being independent in space launches. Relying on other countries for rocket launches isn't a viable long-term strategy.
  2. The current state of Europe's launch industry is weak, with very few successful launches compared to other countries. More competition could lead to better innovation and technology.
  3. Europe has the talent and resources to improve its space industry, but it's not using them effectively. Making serious investments and diversifying options is crucial for real space sovereignty.

The Ill-Defined Space Spacecraft Market and Service Analysis, Pt. 2: 2024

9 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25
🕹 Technology Market Analysis
  1. In 2024, four main countries—USA, China, Russia, and France—made up about 94% of all spacecraft deployed, with most missions focusing on commercial markets.
  2. The USA had a surprising shift towards military missions, deploying around 46% of its spacecraft for this purpose, while China leaned more towards commercial deployments at about 66%.
  3. France's space operators focused almost entirely on commercial services, with 98% of their satellites being used for this, primarily providing communication services.

The Ill-Defined Space Spacecraft Market and Service Analysis, Pt. 1: 2024

19 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
🕹 Technology Space Satellites Market Analysis Communications Remote Sensing
  1. The spacecraft market is heavily influenced by companies like Starlink, which dominates satellite deployments for internet services. This means many other operators struggle to stand out in the commercial market.
  2. In 2024, over half of the satellites deployed were aimed at providing commercial services. This shows a strong business interest in using satellites for various purposes.
  3. There are still many opportunities for growth in satellite services beyond just communications and optical sensors. New technologies and ideas can create more options in the market.

Space Industry Stories and Fibs

19 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
🕹 Technology Space Industry Engineering Innovation Aerospace Market Trends
  1. Some claims in the space industry are exaggerated or misleading, often to attract investment or support without solid proof. It's important to be critical of what you hear.
  2. Cheap launches are often a myth; while SpaceX may offer lower prices, many other companies do not match that, and the real cost can be hidden.
  3. Many small satellite launchers struggle in the market because they face tough competition and higher costs. The trend is shifting back towards larger rockets that can handle multiple satellites at once.

Choosing Wisely: NRO and SDA Acquisitions

38 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security Military Aerospace Intelligence
  1. The National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) is ahead in deploying satellites compared to the Space Development Agency (SDA). This is important because faster satellite deployment can improve national security.
  2. The missions of the NRO and SDA are different. The NRO supports a wide range of intelligence needs, while the SDA is focused mainly on helping U.S. military forces detect missile threats.
  3. Both agencies are trying to fix slow satellite acquisition processes. The NRO's partnership with SpaceX is helping them deploy quickly, while the SDA is still working on building a robust supply chain for their satellites.
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Picking a Proven Winner: NRO and Starshield

47 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Aerospace Defense Space Manufacturing Intelligence
  1. The National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) is rapidly deploying satellites using SpaceX's Starshield, increasing its satellite fleet significantly in a short time. This means they are becoming more reliant on a single company for their satellite manufacturing needs.
  2. In contrast, the Space Development Agency (SDA) is struggling to build a solid supply chain and is concerned about its satellite manufacturers. They need to make and deploy a larger number of satellites than currently planned.
  3. The NRO's approach may help it quickly achieve its goals, but it raises questions about the risk of depending heavily on SpaceX for critical military capabilities.

More Upmass!! (Or, Small Launch=Little Business)

9 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Space Industry Rocket launches Aerospace Engineering Satellite Technology
  1. Heavy-class rockets are the most popular choice in 2024, with more than half of all launches using them. They are often needed for bigger payloads like satellites.
  2. China has a wide range of rockets, launching more different types than the U.S. and other countries combined. This shows their strong focus on space operations.
  3. Small rockets are the least used, even though many startups are trying to develop them. This highlights a challenge in the market for small satellite launches.

The Ill-Defined Space Spacecraft Deployment Summary: 2024

19 implied HN points • 10 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Deployment Data Analysis
  1. In 2024, 2,807 spacecraft were deployed globally, which is about 1.5% less than 2023. Despite the decrease in the number of deployments, the total mass of these spacecraft actually increased by 28%.
  2. SpaceX was the leading company, responsible for around 71% of all spacecraft deployed, mainly for its Starlink internet satellites. Other nations and companies started making larger deployments, especially in China.
  3. While the U.S. led global deployments, many countries participated, though the total number of nations involved dropped significantly from 54 in 2023 to just 39 in 2024.

The SDA’s Inertia-imposed Challenges

19 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Defense Military Aerospace Policy Industry
  1. The Space Development Agency (SDA) is struggling with supply chain issues for satellite manufacturing. This is partly due to a past focus on slow production, which created a system that favors large companies over smaller, more agile ones.
  2. The SDA's contracts often go to established companies that have experience writing proposals but may lack the capability to produce satellites quickly. This means the SDA risks getting solutions that aren't as effective as what smaller, more innovative companies could offer.
  3. The SDA aims to increase the number of satellites produced swiftly, but many contractors may not be able to meet these high demands. This situation emphasizes the need for a more responsive and effective satellite manufacturing base.

China’s Launch Trends and Spacecraft Deployments

19 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
🕹 Technology Space Exploration Aerospace Industry International relations Commercial Space
  1. China's space launches are increasing every year since 2019, showing a steady upward trend. This suggests that China is getting more active in space exploration.
  2. While more spacecraft are being deployed, most of these are small satellites. This means that China is focusing on smaller, more cost-effective missions rather than larger projects.
  3. China's space industry has many different launch options, which is similar to trends in other countries. This variety helps make launches more efficient and affordable.

SpaceX’s Launch Growth: Quantity Over Quality?

28 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Space Industry Commercial Space
  1. Counting launches and numbers in the space industry can look impressive, but it may not reflect the industry's true health. Much of the activity is driven by one company, SpaceX, which creates a misleading picture of overall growth.
  2. SpaceX recently lowered its launch goal for 2024. Even though the adjusted goal still means launching more than last year, it's questionable why they set such ambitious targets in the first place if they seem unlikely to be met.
  3. Most of SpaceX's launches are for its own Starlink project, meaning fewer launches are benefiting external customers. This focus could stifle competition and innovation in the broader space industry.

Space At Sea

19 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
🕹 Technology Space Internet Maritime
  1. Space technology is becoming more useful in everyday life, even on cruises. People can now get reliable internet access on ships through Starlink, making it easy to stay connected.
  2. A system called AIS helps ships know where they are and avoid collisions. It sends out information about the ship's location and heading, which anyone with internet access can view on sites like MarineTraffic.
  3. Using space services like GPS and satellite internet makes life easier and safer for everyone, whether they're working at sea or enjoying a vacation on a cruise.

The Ill-Defined Space Global Orbital Launch Summary: 2024

9 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Space Exploration Rocket launches Aerospace Industry Global trends Engineering
  1. In 2024, there were 254 orbital launches, showing a 20% increase from 2023. SpaceX was a big player, responsible for most of these launches.
  2. The U.S. dominated the launch industry with 154 launches, which was 61% of global activity. SpaceX alone conducted 87% of those U.S. launches.
  3. Other countries also participated, like China with 66 launches, but they didn't match the U.S. numbers. Japan and India each managed 5 launches, showing varying levels of activity.

National Security Space Launch: ULA and Trust Issues

28 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security Government Trust Military Strategy
  1. SpaceX has secured all recent Department of Defense launch contracts, leaving ULA with no awards this time. This is surprising since ULA typically wins a good portion of these types of contracts.
  2. The DoD seems to have lost trust in ULA's ability to deliver launches reliably. ULA's delays and problems with their Vulcan rocket have contributed to this change in perception.
  3. Despite the DoD's efforts to promote competition in the launch market, they currently rely heavily on SpaceX for national security launches. This poses a risk as it creates dependency on a single provider.

Ukraine: Hedging Bets to Retain Space Superiority

9 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Military Strategy U.S. foreign policy Geopolitics
  1. Ukraine needs to plan for the chance that it might lose support from U.S. space assets in the future. This means finding other ways to get the information and services they need.
  2. There are other global options for space services that Ukraine can choose from, including satellites from Europe, China, and India. Diversifying their partners can help reduce reliance on the U.S.
  3. Trusting U.S. support might not be enough for Ukraine. They should explore backup systems and train their military to use alternatives in case U.S. support diminishes.

A Future Without ULA?

67 implied HN points • 18 Jan 24
💼 Business Space Exploration Competition Company strategy
  1. ULA's future is uncertain as it is up for sale and faces challenges from potential competitors.
  2. Vulcan's successful launch is a significant achievement for ULA, but uncertainties arise with Blue Origin's BE-4 engine supply.
  3. Potential acquisition by Blue Origin may bring more challenges than benefits, raising doubts about the survival of both companies.

2023: Pointing to 2024’s Space Activities

57 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Space Industry
  1. SpaceX is expected to continue dominating the global space industry in 2024.
  2. China and India are projected to increase their space activities in 2024.
  3. There will likely be an increase in launch customers and diversity, as well as downsizing to one major U.S. launch provider.

A Tradition of Mission Support: A USSF Tale

38 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Military technology Satellites Policy
  1. The United States Space Force needs clear policies to expand beyond its current support role.
  2. USSF faces a challenge as its systems are not sufficient to protect its assets and U.S. interests in space.
  3. Efforts to shift USSF's culture and technology are in progress, but more changes are needed for it to defend itself and U.S. interests effectively.

About China’s “Intelligence Satellites”...

28 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Space Satellites Data Analysis Military Commercial
  1. The claim that China has 359 intelligence satellites may be inaccurate, as this number includes civil and military satellites, not just those intended for intelligence purposes.
  2. While China's spacecraft deployments have increased, they have not tripled, as suggested by a U.S. Space Command general.
  3. Despite concerns about China's space activities, the data indicates that U.S. military spacecraft deployments have not significantly increased, and the role of commercial spacecraft in the industry is substantial.

Indian Space Startups: More Growth Required

57 implied HN points • 13 Jul 23
🕹 Technology Space Startups Industry India Rocket launches
  1. India's space industry has seen significant growth in the number of startups, but more is needed to compete globally.
  2. India possesses strong launch capabilities, with the ability to explore the Moon, but needs to increase launch frequency to match other countries.
  3. Although India encourages international spacecraft deployment, there are challenges such as limited rocket inventory that must be addressed for significant industry growth.

Potential U.S. Space Force Changes

19 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Military Technology Training Operations Infrastructure
  1. The U.S. Space Force's missions, assets, and services are mostly about support to combat services like the Army and Navy.
  2. The Space Force relies on old systems which require specialized training, hindering transition to more modern, interoperable systems.
  3. The Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA) will bring more capable and interconnected systems, requiring a shift in mindset and cooperation among space operators.

Smallsats: Commercial Shift Spurs Growing Ecosystem

38 implied HN points • 18 May 23
🕹 Technology Space Industry
  1. Smallsats have transformed the space industry by becoming more commercially focused, creating new opportunities
  2. The cost of deploying smallsats has significantly decreased, making it more affordable for entrepreneurs to enter the space industry
  3. The smallsat ecosystem has expanded, with dedicated manufacturers, launch providers, and ground networks catering to the needs of smallsat operators

The Space Development Agency: So Far, So Good

38 implied HN points • 13 Apr 23
🕹 Technology
  1. The Space Development Agency is successfully accomplishing its mission goals, deploying satellites through contracts with companies like SpaceX and York Space Systems.
  2. Satellite costs remain high, but are relatively lower than typical DoD satellite costs, which may impact overall performance.
  3. Rapidly manufacturing small satellites poses cost efficiency and flexibility advantages for customers, though questions about reliability remain.

A Book of Business Opportunities: A Look at “A City on Mars”

9 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Space Industry
  1. Understanding the challenging reality of settling Mars, the Moon, and space stations is crucial. 'A City on Mars' provides insight into the complexities of space settlement.
  2. The space industry presents numerous business and learning opportunities. From human survival in various environments to developing necessary technologies, there's a wide scope for innovation in space.
  3. By addressing challenges like human physiology in space, businesses can create profitable solutions applicable both off-world and on Earth. 'A City on Mars' emphasizes the need for careful consideration and innovation in the space settlement sector.

Galileo Goes Rocket-Shopping

28 implied HN points • 04 May 23
🕹 Technology Space European Union Satellites
  1. The European Union may use private space companies like SpaceX to launch new generation of Galileo satellites due to delays with Ariane 6.
  2. Delays in Ariane 6 and limited alternatives highlight the need for Europe to diversify its launch options to avoid dependency on a single rocket provider.
  3. Failure to deploy Galileo satellites on time could result in significant revenue loss for Europe, emphasizing the importance of timely and reliable launch systems.

Moved Cheese: SpaceX’s 2024 Launch Goals

9 implied HN points • 15 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Space Aerospace Satellites Innovation
  1. SpaceX increased its launch goals for 2024 to 144, a significant jump from 2023's 100 launches.
  2. The January 2024 launches were at a high number, but SpaceX still needs to maintain a monthly average of 12 launches to reach the 144 launch goal for 2024.
  3. SpaceX's ability to deploy more massive Starlink satellites suggests potential challenges in meeting the 144 launch goal for 2024.

Tootling Through SpaceCom 2024

9 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Space Conferences Innovation Environmental Concerns Commercial Space
  1. The SpaceCom conference in 2024 had a smaller feel compared to other major events like the Space Symposium.
  2. A variety of interesting exhibitors were present, discussing cutting-edge topics like nuclear thorium-based batteries and concerns about satellite constellations.
  3. Attendees of the conference raised environmental concerns about satellite deorbiting and particulates released into the atmosphere.

Amazon Kuiper: More Than LEO Broadband

19 implied HN points • 20 Apr 23
🕹 Technology Satellite Technology E-commerce Subscription services Space Industry Telecommunications
  1. Amazon Kuiper offers more than just broadband internet, leveraging its space infrastructure for other revenue streams.
  2. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy envisions Kuiper providing reliable internet access to underserved areas worldwide, enabling various activities like education and commerce.
  3. Amazon's investment in Kuiper is a small fraction of its annual revenues and profits, highlighting the company's broader vision beyond just internet broadband services.

A Different Kind of Growth In Spacecraft Deployments

9 implied HN points • 29 Jun 23
🔬 Science Space Technology
  1. More nations are getting involved in deploying spacecraft, with 45 countries having organizations in space in 2023.
  2. Nations like Monaco and Kenya are launching smaller satellites for various purposes, from educational programs to aiding in food security efforts.
  3. The growth in space activities by smaller nations and organizations using smallsats reflects a potential shift towards a more diverse and affordable approach to space exploration.

Dedicated Smallsat Launch: Boosting the Market?

9 implied HN points • 22 Jun 23
🕹 Technology Space Exploration
  1. Dedicated smallsat launchers can't match the capabilities and cost-effectiveness of larger competitors offering rideshare services.
  2. Customers tend to prefer rideshare options like SpaceX's program over dedicated smallsat launchers due to cost and reliability.
  3. Development of rockets that can accommodate both smallsat and larger satellite deployments appears to be a more practical approach than focusing solely on dedicated smallsat launchers.

The Office of Space Commerce: Coming to Terms with Space Operations

9 implied HN points • 16 Mar 23
🕹 Technology Government Regulation International relations
  1. The lack of effective space traffic management poses risks in the space industry.
  2. There are international challenges in space operations due to different approaches and lack of cooperation.
  3. The Office of Space Commerce is addressing concerns such as technology shortfalls, international collaboration, economic impact, regulatory challenges, and operator responsibilities.

Russia’s Nesting Satellite Problems

1 HN point • 29 Feb 24
🔬 Science Space Satellites Electronics Funding Technology
  1. Russia's space industry faces challenges in meeting satellite production goals due to financial losses, lack of imported electronics, unclear strategies, resource obstacles, and conflicting priorities from top officials.
  2. Russian satellite manufacturers struggle with access to modern electronics, impacting their ability to scale up production and meet industry goals, possibly leading to prioritization of military satellite programs over commercial or civil ones.
  3. Plans for conveyor production to increase satellite output face obstacles such as scarcity of space-rated electronics, conflicting objectives between government wishes for a space station and the need for smallsat production expansion, and funding issues.