Ill-Defined Space

Ill-Defined Space covers the space sector's business, activities, and outcomes, focusing on launch providers, satellite constellations, and global space activities. It discusses industry challenges, advancements, and the increasing role of smallsats, alongside strategic moves by companies and nations aiming to expand their presence in space.

Space Industry Trends Launch Providers and Rockets Satellite Constellations Global Space Activities Space Policy and Regulation Smallsat Ecosystem Spacecraft Operations Space Industry Forecasts Environmental Concerns in Space

The hottest Substack posts of Ill-Defined Space

And their main takeaways

About China’s “Intelligence Satellites”...

28 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Space Satellites Data Analysis Military Commercial
  1. The claim that China has 359 intelligence satellites may be inaccurate, as this number includes civil and military satellites, not just those intended for intelligence purposes.
  2. While China's spacecraft deployments have increased, they have not tripled, as suggested by a U.S. Space Command general.
  3. Despite concerns about China's space activities, the data indicates that U.S. military spacecraft deployments have not significantly increased, and the role of commercial spacecraft in the industry is substantial.

A Future Without ULA?

67 implied HN points • 18 Jan 24
💼 Business Space Exploration Competition Company strategy
  1. ULA's future is uncertain as it is up for sale and faces challenges from potential competitors.
  2. Vulcan's successful launch is a significant achievement for ULA, but uncertainties arise with Blue Origin's BE-4 engine supply.
  3. Potential acquisition by Blue Origin may bring more challenges than benefits, raising doubts about the survival of both companies.

A Book of Business Opportunities: A Look at “A City on Mars”

9 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Space Industry
  1. Understanding the challenging reality of settling Mars, the Moon, and space stations is crucial. 'A City on Mars' provides insight into the complexities of space settlement.
  2. The space industry presents numerous business and learning opportunities. From human survival in various environments to developing necessary technologies, there's a wide scope for innovation in space.
  3. By addressing challenges like human physiology in space, businesses can create profitable solutions applicable both off-world and on Earth. 'A City on Mars' emphasizes the need for careful consideration and innovation in the space settlement sector.

A Tradition of Mission Support: A USSF Tale

38 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Military technology Satellites Policy
  1. The United States Space Force needs clear policies to expand beyond its current support role.
  2. USSF faces a challenge as its systems are not sufficient to protect its assets and U.S. interests in space.
  3. Efforts to shift USSF's culture and technology are in progress, but more changes are needed for it to defend itself and U.S. interests effectively.

2023: Pointing to 2024’s Space Activities

57 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Space Industry
  1. SpaceX is expected to continue dominating the global space industry in 2024.
  2. China and India are projected to increase their space activities in 2024.
  3. There will likely be an increase in launch customers and diversity, as well as downsizing to one major U.S. launch provider.
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Potential U.S. Space Force Changes

19 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Military Technology Training Operations Infrastructure
  1. The U.S. Space Force's missions, assets, and services are mostly about support to combat services like the Army and Navy.
  2. The Space Force relies on old systems which require specialized training, hindering transition to more modern, interoperable systems.
  3. The Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA) will bring more capable and interconnected systems, requiring a shift in mindset and cooperation among space operators.

Moved Cheese: SpaceX’s 2024 Launch Goals

9 implied HN points • 15 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Space Aerospace Satellites Innovation
  1. SpaceX increased its launch goals for 2024 to 144, a significant jump from 2023's 100 launches.
  2. The January 2024 launches were at a high number, but SpaceX still needs to maintain a monthly average of 12 launches to reach the 144 launch goal for 2024.
  3. SpaceX's ability to deploy more massive Starlink satellites suggests potential challenges in meeting the 144 launch goal for 2024.

Tootling Through SpaceCom 2024

9 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Space Conferences Innovation
  1. The SpaceCom conference in 2024 had a smaller feel compared to other major events like the Space Symposium.
  2. A variety of interesting exhibitors were present, discussing cutting-edge topics like nuclear thorium-based batteries and concerns about satellite constellations.
  3. Attendees of the conference raised environmental concerns about satellite deorbiting and particulates released into the atmosphere.

Indian Space Startups: More Growth Required

57 implied HN points • 13 Jul 23
🕹 Technology Space Startups Industry India
  1. India's space industry has seen significant growth in the number of startups, but more is needed to compete globally.
  2. India possesses strong launch capabilities, with the ability to explore the Moon, but needs to increase launch frequency to match other countries.
  3. Although India encourages international spacecraft deployment, there are challenges such as limited rocket inventory that must be addressed for significant industry growth.

Smallsats: Commercial Shift Spurs Growing Ecosystem

38 implied HN points • 18 May 23
🕹 Technology Space Industry
  1. Smallsats have transformed the space industry by becoming more commercially focused, creating new opportunities
  2. The cost of deploying smallsats has significantly decreased, making it more affordable for entrepreneurs to enter the space industry
  3. The smallsat ecosystem has expanded, with dedicated manufacturers, launch providers, and ground networks catering to the needs of smallsat operators

Russia’s Nesting Satellite Problems

1 HN point • 29 Feb 24
🔬 Science Space Satellites Electronics Funding Technology
  1. Russia's space industry faces challenges in meeting satellite production goals due to financial losses, lack of imported electronics, unclear strategies, resource obstacles, and conflicting priorities from top officials.
  2. Russian satellite manufacturers struggle with access to modern electronics, impacting their ability to scale up production and meet industry goals, possibly leading to prioritization of military satellite programs over commercial or civil ones.
  3. Plans for conveyor production to increase satellite output face obstacles such as scarcity of space-rated electronics, conflicting objectives between government wishes for a space station and the need for smallsat production expansion, and funding issues.

The Space Development Agency: So Far, So Good

38 implied HN points • 13 Apr 23
🕹 Technology
  1. The Space Development Agency is successfully accomplishing its mission goals, deploying satellites through contracts with companies like SpaceX and York Space Systems.
  2. Satellite costs remain high, but are relatively lower than typical DoD satellite costs, which may impact overall performance.
  3. Rapidly manufacturing small satellites poses cost efficiency and flexibility advantages for customers, though questions about reliability remain.

Galileo Goes Rocket-Shopping

28 implied HN points • 04 May 23
🕹 Technology Space European Union Satellites
  1. The European Union may use private space companies like SpaceX to launch new generation of Galileo satellites due to delays with Ariane 6.
  2. Delays in Ariane 6 and limited alternatives highlight the need for Europe to diversify its launch options to avoid dependency on a single rocket provider.
  3. Failure to deploy Galileo satellites on time could result in significant revenue loss for Europe, emphasizing the importance of timely and reliable launch systems.

Amazon Kuiper: More Than LEO Broadband

19 implied HN points • 20 Apr 23
🕹 Technology E-commerce Subscription services Space Industry Telecommunications
  1. Amazon Kuiper offers more than just broadband internet, leveraging its space infrastructure for other revenue streams.
  2. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy envisions Kuiper providing reliable internet access to underserved areas worldwide, enabling various activities like education and commerce.
  3. Amazon's investment in Kuiper is a small fraction of its annual revenues and profits, highlighting the company's broader vision beyond just internet broadband services.

A Different Kind of Growth In Spacecraft Deployments

9 implied HN points • 29 Jun 23
🔬 Science
  1. More nations are getting involved in deploying spacecraft, with 45 countries having organizations in space in 2023.
  2. Nations like Monaco and Kenya are launching smaller satellites for various purposes, from educational programs to aiding in food security efforts.
  3. The growth in space activities by smaller nations and organizations using smallsats reflects a potential shift towards a more diverse and affordable approach to space exploration.

Dedicated Smallsat Launch: Boosting the Market?

9 implied HN points • 22 Jun 23
🕹 Technology Space Exploration
  1. Dedicated smallsat launchers can't match the capabilities and cost-effectiveness of larger competitors offering rideshare services.
  2. Customers tend to prefer rideshare options like SpaceX's program over dedicated smallsat launchers due to cost and reliability.
  3. Development of rockets that can accommodate both smallsat and larger satellite deployments appears to be a more practical approach than focusing solely on dedicated smallsat launchers.

The Office of Space Commerce: Coming to Terms with Space Operations

9 implied HN points • 16 Mar 23
🕹 Technology Government Regulation International relations
  1. The lack of effective space traffic management poses risks in the space industry.
  2. There are international challenges in space operations due to different approaches and lack of cooperation.
  3. The Office of Space Commerce is addressing concerns such as technology shortfalls, international collaboration, economic impact, regulatory challenges, and operator responsibilities.