The hottest Polling Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

Small Sample

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 10 Jan 12
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Statistics can be surprising and should be taken seriously. Just because something looks odd doesn't mean it's not true.
  2. Don't underestimate small sample results, like those from Dixville Notch. They can sometimes predict bigger trends.
  3. Expect the unexpected in voting results. Surprising candidates can perform better than anticipated.

And that, as they say, is what makes a horse race

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 27 Dec 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. The media benefits from portraying elections as competitive so they can attract more viewers and advertisers.
  2. Democrats want the GOP primary to appear close so it can weaken resources for the Republican candidates.
  3. Different parties and states involved in the primaries gain advantages and resources when the race seems undecided, even if it really isn't.

Slim and none, and slim just wrote a Times op-ed

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 27 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. When discussing a candidate's chance of winning, it's important to avoid extreme statements like 'no chance.' It's better to recognize that while a candidate may be unlikely to win, they still have some chance.
  2. Polling numbers can be misleading, and it's important to consider the candidate's fundamentals, like their overall support and viability.
  3. Making bets or challenges can highlight different perspectives on a candidate's chances, but sometimes it's just a matter of semantics and how we interpret the odds.

Posterior Perry-bility: A (semi-serious) Bayesian update of Rick Perry

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 13 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Rick Perry's chances of becoming the GOP nominee have dropped after performing poorly in four debates.
  2. Bayesian analysis shows that his updated probability of being the nominee is now 24%, down from 39%.
  3. The discussion raises questions about how to accurately assess someone's debate performance and its impact on their nomination chances.

Flux Capacitor

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 04 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Chris Christie dropped out of the race, likely because he saw no viable path to winning. This opens the door for other potential candidates to make a comeback.
  2. Polls can show fluctuating support for candidates, as they often reflect changing media attention more than actual voter conviction. This could mean candidates like Herman Cain gain initial popularity but might not last.
  3. The Republican Party likely prefers safe candidates with known qualities like Mitt Romney to avoid risking their chances in the election. New or inexperienced candidates may not be seen as viable options in this context.
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Election Night Live-Occasional-Blog

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 02 Nov 10
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Some election nights can be very surprising, like a write-in candidate possibly winning. This can really keep everyone on the edge of their seats.
  2. People have noticed that news channels are becoming more partisan over time, and it’s okay if they openly show their biases. It's better than pretending to be neutral.
  3. The results for House and Senate races can differ a lot. Even if one party does well in one area, they might struggle in another, making elections unpredictable.