The hottest Polling Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top U.S. Politics Topics

Garbage In/Garbage Out

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2138 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Campaigns Political parties Media
  1. The race is very close, and polls show a shift towards Trump, even if some overall numbers may be off. It's important to pay attention to these trends as Election Day nears.
  2. Biden's remark about Trump supporters being 'garbage' could be more damaging to his campaign than a comedian's joke about Puerto Rico, possibly alienating undecided voters.
  3. Early voting numbers for Democrats are concerning, especially among black voters in key states. Republicans are doing better in early voting than in previous elections.

The Most Accurate Pollster of 2020 Releases Their Prediction!

COVID Reason • 713 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling Elections Voter trends Political Analysis Demographics
  1. Atlas Intel was the most accurate pollster in the 2020 election, using a digital-first approach to track voter demographics effectively.
  2. In 2024, Trump is gaining more support among Hispanic and Black voters compared to 2020, showing a notable trend.
  3. Kamala Harris has solid support among Democrats but is struggling more with Independents compared to Biden in 2020.

How America's Accurate Election Polls Were Covered Up

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 11704 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Media Partisanship Data journalism
  1. Some polls are seen as biased or not reliable because they're labeled as 'partisan', even if they prove to be more accurate than those deemed 'nonpartisan'. This can affect their credibility.
  2. Wikipedia removed a popular polling aggregator, Real Clear Politics, right before the election, saying it had a bias, but later had to restore it after realizing its accuracy.
  3. There's a concern that mainstream media may manipulate polling data to fit a narrative, which can mislead the public about the actual state of elections.

Your Emotional Support Historian

Campaign Trails • 4844 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Predictions Polling Political History Campaigns
  1. Historians are trained to look back at events, not predict the future. They often find it tricky to offer reassurance during election seasons.
  2. Making confident predictions can lead to embarrassment, as history shows many past predictions were wrong. This causes historians to be cautious when discussing possible outcomes.
  3. Predictions about elections are often unreliable and should be taken with a grain of salt. The best approach is to focus on getting people to vote rather than getting caught up in the predictions.
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FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

Silver Bulletin • 9424 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Forecasting Political Analysis Campaigns
  1. In the final simulations for the election, Kamala Harris won slightly more than half of the time, but Donald Trump also had a strong chance, especially with potential ties in the Electoral College.
  2. The modeling approach adjusts for different polling methods and emphasizes reliable polls, aiming to offer a clearer picture of who might win the election.
  3. There’s still uncertainty in elections, and surprising outcomes can happen, so many factors could influence the final results.

SHOW NOTES: October Surprise; Town Halls; The Early Vote

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1378 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Political Commentary Political News Government
  1. A recent claim about Donald Trump from 1993 is dismissed because it contradicts facts about when Jeffrey Epstein lived in a specific location.
  2. Recent polls show Donald Trump gaining popularity, even surpassing Vice President Harris's favorability ratings.
  3. Georgia's election officials successfully defended against a cyber-attack, and concerns about North Korean soldiers helping Russia in Ukraine are growing.

Are the Polls too Close to Be Trusted?

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 1755 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling Elections Voter Behavior Political Analysis Statistical Methods
  1. Polls can often show very similar results, especially in tight races. This might indicate that pollsters are playing it safe and not reporting outlier results.
  2. There is a concern called 'herding' where polling companies avoid reporting unusual findings to not seem wrong. This can lead to less information available to the public.
  3. The lack of variation in polls today is unusual and might mean real voter sentiment is being missed, setting the stage for a surprise outcome in elections.

Election Update 3: Self-Injury Watch On

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 5628 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Media Polling Political Commentary
  1. Watching political TV can feel overwhelming and stressful for many people. It often highlights negative news and can be quite draining.
  2. Election updates show a mix of moods, with both excitement and worry among different voter groups. The shifting results lead to a lot of anxiety and chatter on social media.
  3. Different states are reporting varied results, creating a sense of urgency and unpredictability during election nights. People are looking for any signs of good news amidst the tensions.

SHOW NOTES: Bullies, Authoritarians, and French Fries

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1278 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Polling Political Commentary Party Dynamics
  1. Kamala Harris is struggling to connect with voters, especially Black voters in Georgia, who feel she lacks relatable experience. Many are undecided and may not vote at all.
  2. There's a growing sense among Democrats that they might lose the election, with signs of weakening support for Harris. Their current tactics seem to rely more on shaming than persuasion.
  3. Voter turnout patterns indicate that less engaged voters might be supporting Trump, which poses a challenge for pollsters trying to predict the election outcome.

Hopium comes at a high price

Silver Bulletin • 1041 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Political Analysis
  1. Polls showed mixed results, but overall, they were generally accurate in predicting the election outcome. This means people shouldn't overreact to polling numbers, no matter how close the elections get.
  2. Many Democrats believed in a winning narrative that didn't match the polling data. This led to a false sense of security about their candidates' chances.
  3. Voter concerns about issues like inflation, immigration, and candidate age were often ignored by Democratic leaders, which contributed to their electoral struggles. Listening to these concerns is important for future success.

Trump's vibes-driven victory narrative crashes and burns

The Signorile Report • 2398 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Polling Media Political Analysis
  1. Recent polls show that Trump is not leading as he claimed, with Harris actually holding a slight lead in important voter groups. This means his narrative of an easy victory is not supported by the data.
  2. Trump's recent public appearances and behavior have raised concerns about his fitness for office. Harris is effectively highlighting these issues, contrasting her own active campaigning with Trump's evasiveness.
  3. Harris is showing strong leadership by engaging with multiple media outlets and audiences. This approach seems to resonate more with voters, while Trump's awkward town hall meetings are backfiring.

The Polling Cave

Thinking about... • 180 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Media Public Opinion Political Behavior
  1. Polls can create a false sense of reality during elections. They focus mainly on candidates instead of the important policies that affect our lives.
  2. The media often exaggerates the significance of polls, making us feel anxious about close races. In reality, polls just indicate possibilities, not certainties.
  3. It's important to engage with the real world and vote, rather than getting stuck in the 'polling cave.' Our actions can lead to meaningful change outside of the shadows created by polls.

ATW Livestream Tonight at 8 PM ET/7 PM CT

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 2276 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Commentary Media Livestreams Polling
  1. Live stream discussing Election Day happens tonight at 8 PM ET/7 PM CT. It's a chance to hear predictions and polls.
  2. The mood seems heavy as it's described as 'the end of an era' with Election Day approaching. Regardless of the result, anxiety is expected to continue.
  3. Fans of current events can look forward to lively discussions and insights during the live stream, making it an engaging watch.

Happenings in Pennsylvania! Latest Numbers and Trends

COVID Reason • 456 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter trends Party Dynamics Polling Campaigns
  1. Voter registrations in Pennsylvania are changing, with more Democrats switching to the Republican Party. This shift can impact the elections in a big way.
  2. Early voting trends show that Republicans have greatly increased their early turnout compared to previous elections, while Democrats' early voting is down. This could change who wins in the state.
  3. Polls indicate a tight race for the 2024 election in Pennsylvania, with both parties needing to work hard to win over voters as Election Day gets closer.

Beware biased GOP polls flooding the zone, with corporate media's help

The Signorile Report • 1498 implied HN points • 11 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Campaigns Media Political strategy
  1. Be careful with GOP polls; they can be biased and create unnecessary stress for Democrats. It's important to understand that some polls may be designed to make it seem like Republicans are winning.
  2. Trump's own internal polls show different results than public ones, suggesting a bias toward him. This discrepancy raises questions about the reliability of the polls being reported by mainstream media.
  3. It's crucial not to get overly anxious about polling numbers. Focus on real indicators like voter registration and early voting trends, which can provide a clearer picture of the election landscape.

Two Weeks to Go: Crime, Poll Anxiety, and a BIG Kamala Media Blitz.

COVID Reason • 495 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Media Crime Demographics
  1. As the election approaches, there's a lot of tension and uncertainty in politics. Predictions about who will win are heating up, making it a crucial time to pay attention.
  2. Kamala Harris is trying to improve her image by being more visible in the media, but some people in her party are not happy with her approach. The internal issues may be a bigger challenge for her than her opponents.
  3. Concerns about rising crime rates are also affecting the political conversation. More people are talking about how certain policies might be linked to this increase, which could influence voter opinions.

THE SHOW NOTES: Three Weeks To Go, Ignoring Time Magazine, & Kamala On Joe Rogan?

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 879 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Polling Political parties Media
  1. Kamala Harris is behind Trump in key issues that matter to voters, like the economy and immigration. This is worrying her campaign as many voters are feeling negative about their current situation.
  2. More Americans are identifying as Republicans, and many believe the GOP will handle issues like safety and prosperity better than Democrats. This shift could impact upcoming elections.
  3. Kamala Harris has been selective with her media appearances, refusing interviews with Time Magazine but considering more informal talks, like a potential chat with Joe Rogan. This may be an attempt to connect better with voters.

Silver Bulletin 2024 election night coverage

Silver Bulletin • 1380 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Political Analysis Voter Behavior Campaigns
  1. It's important to keep track of election night numbers for candidates like Trump and Harris. Knowing the latest results helps us understand how the election is going.
  2. You can join a chat during election night to discuss the results with others. It's a good way to share thoughts and hear different perspectives.
  3. This information is aimed at paid subscribers, so it's exclusive content for those who support the publication. Being a paid member allows for access to more in-depth analysis.

A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong

Silver Bulletin • 1606 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Political Analysis Voter trends
  1. A new poll in Iowa shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump, which is surprising given recent trends favoring Trump. This could mean a shift in political dynamics in the state.
  2. Pollster Ann Selzer is known for her accurate predictions, but this bold claim may not hold up given the statistical uncertainties involved. The margin of error could sway the actual results significantly.
  3. Different polls are showing varying results, which highlights the uncertainty and complexity of polling in elections. Some polls are seen as more reliable than others, making it hard to know which to trust.

The model exactly predicted the most likely election map

Silver Bulletin • 790 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Candidates Political Analysis Voting Trends
  1. The election model predicted the map based on 80,000 simulations, accurately reflecting the most common outcome, though some surprises were noted.
  2. Polling errors tend to be similar across states, meaning if Trump performed poorly in one swing state, he likely did in others, leading to a statistically predictable outcome.
  3. Beneath the overall results, some deep blue states showed unexpected weakness for the Democrats, while some traditionally red states are trending more blue, indicating shifting voter patterns.

Umm... Trump might actually win this thing.

COVID Reason • 693 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Campaigns Political strategies Political Analysis
  1. Polls often underestimate Donald Trump's support, which could mean he might win in 2024 if the trend continues.
  2. Pennsylvania is crucial for the election, and recent party registration changes there could tip the scales in Trump's favor.
  3. Recent polls show Trump and his opponent, Kamala Harris, are very close, much tighter than in past elections, suggesting a competitive race.

The polls are close, but that doesn’t mean the results will be

Silver Bulletin • 666 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Candidates Forecasting
  1. Polls show a very tight race, but this doesn't guarantee a close election outcome. Both candidates could end up winning by a larger margin than the polls suggest.
  2. Polling errors can happen in either direction, making the election unpredictable. Even a small error could lead to a surprising result on election day.
  3. The focus should be on battleground states, as those will ultimately determine the winner regardless of national polls. The voting patterns in these key areas could lead to differing results from the national poll averages.

Polls vs Early Voting: the real data is bullish for Trump

The Dossier • 391 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Voting Campaigns Media
  1. Polls can be misleading and don't always reflect the true situation. What's more important is the actual voter turnout.
  2. Republican voters are showing strong motivation and participation in early voting. This could be a good sign for Trump's campaign.
  3. The media often pushes narratives that may not align with the reality of voter enthusiasm. It's key to focus on the numbers rather than just headlines.

Evangelicals for Trump? It's Not About Religion

Steady • 28774 implied HN points • 18 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Religion Society Polling Media
  1. Evangelicals support Trump not necessarily because of religion but for reasons like opposing abortion and LGBTQ+ rights.
  2. Despite Trump's personal controversies, many white evangelical Christians see him as a savior figure saving the country from perceived threats.
  3. There is a shift in evangelical priorities, with church attendance declining and political identity becoming more significant.

Juggling for High Stakes, Nate Silver Expertly Keeps All the Balls in the Air

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 253 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Political Analysis Demographics Campaign strategies
  1. Nate Silver analyzes the 2024 presidential polls by juggling different polls and what they say about the voters. He's trying to figure out whether the surprising results are due to model errors or actual changes in voter behavior.
  2. He believes that some pollsters may be hesitant to share results that seem too far from expected outcomes, leading to overly tight poll results. This herding effect makes it hard to know what's really going on in the electorate.
  3. Silver highlights the conflict between different polls, like Selzer's showing a lead for Harris in Iowa and Siena's favoring Trump in Arizona. If both polls are correct, it could suggest big shifts in voter preferences since past elections.

Betting Markets

Points And Figures • 746 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Prediction Markets Political Analysis Government Policy
  1. Betting markets can predict election outcomes more accurately than polls. They quickly adjust based on new information, making them reliable for forecasting.
  2. Unlike traditional markets, prediction markets are less likely to be manipulated. Studies show attempts to influence them usually don't succeed, keeping the forecasts steady.
  3. Understanding how the market works is key. It gathers and shares information in a way that motivates accuracy, unlike traditional polling methods that can miss the mark.

Once More Telling People That They Should Take Nate Silver for Their Guru on Questions in His Lane

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 222 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Public Opinion Political Analysis Media influence
  1. Nate Silver is really good at understanding statistics and probabilities, so it's smart to listen to him when it comes to polls and predictions about elections.
  2. Billionaires don't know more about elections than anyone else; they often act based on their own interests and fears, not on secret insights.
  3. When looking at elections, focus on the polls instead of billionaires' actions. Polls can give us a clearer picture of what might happen, even if they're not perfect.

Why You Should Ignore All the Polls

The Ruffian • 227 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Campaigns Political Analysis Voter Behavior
  1. Polls don't really tell you what you need to know about elections. They can be misleading and don't account for many factors.
  2. When you feel tempted to constantly check election updates, try doing something else instead. Activities like walking or listening to music can make you feel better.
  3. No matter how informed you think you are, you can't predict the outcome of elections. It's better to accept uncertainty than stress about it.

And Now, the Narrative Changes

Bulwark+ • 7075 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Media Partisanship Polling General election
  1. The Republican Party is facing challenges due to a significant portion of voters who do not align with Trump's base.
  2. There's a shifting focus from primary battles to the upcoming general election, where Trump may struggle with moderates and independents.
  3. Biden's reelection campaign could benefit from improving economic optimism among voters, resembling Obama's successful 2012 campaign.

Election 2024: The Day Before

The Reactionary • 82 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Political parties Voter Turnout Campaign strategies
  1. Republicans are feeling more confident going into the 2024 election, especially with recent polling showing Trump gaining ground in key swing states. The mood has shifted significantly in the last couple of months.
  2. Early voting results indicate that Republicans have better turnout compared to Democrats, especially in states like Nevada and Pennsylvania. This may suggest a problem with Democrat enthusiasm compared to the previous election.
  3. In several swing states, urban and female voter turnout is down compared to 2020, while rural turnout is up for Republicans. This shift could impact the overall election results.

Your guide to watching the US election

Comment is Freed • 63 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Voting Political Analysis
  1. Polls are hard to trust this election because they might be missing certain groups of voters. Some people who usually don’t vote are expected to show up but are less likely to answer polls.
  2. Different states have different rules for counting votes, which can make it tricky to know the results quickly. Some states can count early votes before polls close, while others cannot.
  3. US exit polls are often not very helpful for predicting results. Unlike the UK, they don’t provide clear insight into voting intentions and motivations.

Election Update #12: Is the Democratic Enthusiasm Advantage Already Showing Up?

Phillips’s Newsletter • 83 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter Turnout Political trends Polling Demographics
  1. Many people have already voted, showing a lot of early engagement. This trend is higher compared to most past elections, but still lower than during the pandemic in 2020.
  2. Women are leading in turnout, especially in key swing states. Their participation could play a big role in this election's outcome.
  3. The current election feels more like recent years (2022) than the previous presidential elections (2016, 2020). Polling predictions may not fully capture this shift in voter sentiment.