The hottest Polling Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

SBSQ #30: Will liberals turn against sports betting?

Silver Bulletin • 293 implied HN points • 23 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. He doesn’t incorporate prediction market prices into his models because he wants to preserve an independent perspective and avoid pre-diluting or effectively betting against his own forecasts.
  2. Prediction market inputs create technical problems — they can cause recursion and feedback loops and are highly correlated with existing signals, which makes models unstable and hard to fit robustly.
  3. Sports betting is drawing bipartisan backlash, with lawmakers and public figures pushing restrictions and many people annoyed by the ads and industry influence, signaling potential political momentum for regulation.

Garbage In/Garbage Out

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2138 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. The race is very close, and polls show a shift towards Trump, even if some overall numbers may be off. It's important to pay attention to these trends as Election Day nears.
  2. Biden's remark about Trump supporters being 'garbage' could be more damaging to his campaign than a comedian's joke about Puerto Rico, possibly alienating undecided voters.
  3. Early voting numbers for Democrats are concerning, especially among black voters in key states. Republicans are doing better in early voting than in previous elections.

The Most Accurate Pollster of 2020 Releases Their Prediction!

COVID Reason • 713 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Atlas Intel was the most accurate pollster in the 2020 election, using a digital-first approach to track voter demographics effectively.
  2. In 2024, Trump is gaining more support among Hispanic and Black voters compared to 2020, showing a notable trend.
  3. Kamala Harris has solid support among Democrats but is struggling more with Independents compared to Biden in 2020.

Your Emotional Support Historian

Campaign Trails • 4844 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Historians are trained to look back at events, not predict the future. They often find it tricky to offer reassurance during election seasons.
  2. Making confident predictions can lead to embarrassment, as history shows many past predictions were wrong. This causes historians to be cautious when discussing possible outcomes.
  3. Predictions about elections are often unreliable and should be taken with a grain of salt. The best approach is to focus on getting people to vote rather than getting caught up in the predictions.

Clear Eyes, Full Hearts

Magic + Loss • 1252 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Half of Americans consider Trump to be a fascist, which is not good news for him.
  2. Kamala Harris is leading in national polls and early voting, showing strong support among voters.
  3. Many more registered Democrats are voting early compared to Republicans, especially in battleground states like Pennsylvania.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

SHOW NOTES: October Surprise; Town Halls; The Early Vote

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1378 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. A recent claim about Donald Trump from 1993 is dismissed because it contradicts facts about when Jeffrey Epstein lived in a specific location.
  2. Recent polls show Donald Trump gaining popularity, even surpassing Vice President Harris's favorability ratings.
  3. Georgia's election officials successfully defended against a cyber-attack, and concerns about North Korean soldiers helping Russia in Ukraine are growing.

The Anti-Israel Podcasters Don’t Speak for MAGA

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 695 implied HN points • 17 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Some online influencers say Trump betrayed MAGA by fighting Iran on Israel's behalf and that his voters are abandoning him over the war.
  2. Actual polls show Republican voters still overwhelmingly support both the military action and the U.S.-Israel alliance, contradicting those influencer claims.
  3. The idea that young MAGA voters are defecting is largely false, and social media chatter and media coverage overstate dissent within the base.

SHOW NOTES: Bullies, Authoritarians, and French Fries

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1278 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Kamala Harris is struggling to connect with voters, especially Black voters in Georgia, who feel she lacks relatable experience. Many are undecided and may not vote at all.
  2. There's a growing sense among Democrats that they might lose the election, with signs of weakening support for Harris. Their current tactics seem to rely more on shaming than persuasion.
  3. Voter turnout patterns indicate that less engaged voters might be supporting Trump, which poses a challenge for pollsters trying to predict the election outcome.

Trump's vibes-driven victory narrative crashes and burns

The Signorile Report • 2398 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Recent polls show that Trump is not leading as he claimed, with Harris actually holding a slight lead in important voter groups. This means his narrative of an easy victory is not supported by the data.
  2. Trump's recent public appearances and behavior have raised concerns about his fitness for office. Harris is effectively highlighting these issues, contrasting her own active campaigning with Trump's evasiveness.
  3. Harris is showing strong leadership by engaging with multiple media outlets and audiences. This approach seems to resonate more with voters, while Trump's awkward town hall meetings are backfiring.

BREAKING: The race is OFFICIALLY tied!

COVID Reason • 456 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. The race between Harris and Trump is officially tied, with both having equal support in recent polls.
  2. Polls show that results can vary slightly in different states but overall it's a close competition.
  3. As the election approaches, these numbers highlight a very competitive environment for both candidates.

Happenings in Pennsylvania! Latest Numbers and Trends

COVID Reason • 456 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Voter registrations in Pennsylvania are changing, with more Democrats switching to the Republican Party. This shift can impact the elections in a big way.
  2. Early voting trends show that Republicans have greatly increased their early turnout compared to previous elections, while Democrats' early voting is down. This could change who wins in the state.
  3. Polls indicate a tight race for the 2024 election in Pennsylvania, with both parties needing to work hard to win over voters as Election Day gets closer.

Beware biased GOP polls flooding the zone, with corporate media's help

The Signorile Report • 1498 implied HN points • 11 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Be careful with GOP polls; they can be biased and create unnecessary stress for Democrats. It's important to understand that some polls may be designed to make it seem like Republicans are winning.
  2. Trump's own internal polls show different results than public ones, suggesting a bias toward him. This discrepancy raises questions about the reliability of the polls being reported by mainstream media.
  3. It's crucial not to get overly anxious about polling numbers. Focus on real indicators like voter registration and early voting trends, which can provide a clearer picture of the election landscape.

Two Weeks to Go: Crime, Poll Anxiety, and a BIG Kamala Media Blitz.

COVID Reason • 495 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. As the election approaches, there's a lot of tension and uncertainty in politics. Predictions about who will win are heating up, making it a crucial time to pay attention.
  2. Kamala Harris is trying to improve her image by being more visible in the media, but some people in her party are not happy with her approach. The internal issues may be a bigger challenge for her than her opponents.
  3. Concerns about rising crime rates are also affecting the political conversation. More people are talking about how certain policies might be linked to this increase, which could influence voter opinions.

Will Iran break MAGA?

Silver Bulletin • 486 implied HN points • 11 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Republican voters remain largely loyal to Trump and, so far, strongly support the Iran war; surprisingly, self-identified MAGA Republicans are even more pro-war than other GOP voters.
  2. The Republican elite is deeply split: traditional hawks and major donors back military action while prominent MAGA media figures and some lawmakers condemn it, creating an internal party clash.
  3. That elite split could reshape mass opinion over time — as Trump becomes a lame duck and younger or new GOP leaders push isolationism, elite views may trickle down and erode support, especially if the war brings US casualties or higher gas prices.

THE SHOW NOTES: Three Weeks To Go, Ignoring Time Magazine, & Kamala On Joe Rogan?

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 879 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Kamala Harris is behind Trump in key issues that matter to voters, like the economy and immigration. This is worrying her campaign as many voters are feeling negative about their current situation.
  2. More Americans are identifying as Republicans, and many believe the GOP will handle issues like safety and prosperity better than Democrats. This shift could impact upcoming elections.
  3. Kamala Harris has been selective with her media appearances, refusing interviews with Time Magazine but considering more informal talks, like a potential chat with Joe Rogan. This may be an attempt to connect better with voters.

The Trump presidency is still alive and kicking

Noahpinion • 18059 implied HN points • 14 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Trump still holds significant power and the presidency isn't collapsing. Even if Democrats do well in the midterms, they likely won't have the supermajority needed to override vetoes or fully undo his executive actions.
  2. Americans are growing unhappy mainly about affordability and the economy, and that anger could threaten his standing if inflation or costs rise further. Tariffs and pressure to push the Fed for rate cuts risk fueling inflation and worsening public discontent.
  3. Several troubling policies and scandals — from aggressive immigration raids to a spreading measles outbreak and other abuses — haven't yet sparked mass outrage because many people tune out the news, but any issue that hits daily life could become a tipping point.

The lifeline election (part one)

Comment is Freed • 126 implied HN points • 17 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. If Democrats win both the House and Senate they could seriously constrain the President by blocking appointments, subpoenaing officials, stalling budgets, and launching investigations, though they still couldn’t remove him or stop all presidential powers.
  2. The House is likely to flip to the Democrats — Republicans hold a narrow four-seat majority, polls favor Democrats, and competing gerrymanders in different states largely cancel each other out.
  3. The Senate is far more competitive and could go either way: Democrats need multiple pickups, nine key Senate contests will decide control, and rising concerns about Trump’s approval and candidate choices have made control roughly a 50/50 outcome while raising worries he might try to undermine fair contests.

Can Talarico win in November?

Silver Bulletin • 607 implied HN points • 04 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. James Talarico won the Democratic primary with strong turnout where he needed it, and prediction markets proved quicker and more confident than polls in signaling his edge.
  2. The Republican race moved to a runoff between Cornyn and Paxton after polls overstated Paxton’s advantage, showing prediction markets were overconfident on the GOP side and leaving open questions about Trump’s endorsement.
  3. Crockett was not clearly more liberal than Talarico but ran a hotter, more partisan style, while Talarico’s calmer, more moderate-seeming approach likely improved his electability perception in a red state, though November will still be a tough climb for a Democrat.

Umm... Trump might actually win this thing.

COVID Reason • 693 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Polls often underestimate Donald Trump's support, which could mean he might win in 2024 if the trend continues.
  2. Pennsylvania is crucial for the election, and recent party registration changes there could tip the scales in Trump's favor.
  3. Recent polls show Trump and his opponent, Kamala Harris, are very close, much tighter than in past elections, suggesting a competitive race.

Evangelicals for Trump? It's Not About Religion

Steady • 28774 implied HN points • 18 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Evangelicals support Trump not necessarily because of religion but for reasons like opposing abortion and LGBTQ+ rights.
  2. Despite Trump's personal controversies, many white evangelical Christians see him as a savior figure saving the country from perceived threats.
  3. There is a shift in evangelical priorities, with church attendance declining and political identity becoming more significant.

Fighting back

Comment is Freed • 124 implied HN points • 11 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Polling
  1. Recent by-election losses have triggered a wider momentum shift away from Labour, with the Greens climbing in polls and able to win seats without deep local roots. This trend threatens more poor results for Labour unless it is stopped.
  2. Labour is moving toward centering economic insecurity and the cost of living as the core issue, since frustrated voters are drifting to Greens and other parties for economic reasons. Focusing on everyday financial worries is seen as essential to get back on the pitch.
  3. Simply improving living standards may not automatically win voters' gratitude, so Labour must work out why people don’t give the government credit and build a strategy that goes beyond short-term economic fixes. Understanding that disconnect is critical to reversing the decline.

Could Republicans blow the Texas Senate race?

Silver Bulletin • 473 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. The Texas Republican primary is tilting toward Ken Paxton, a MAGA-aligned, scandal-plagued candidate who leads recent polls and looks likely to make the runoff.
  2. John Cornyn is underperforming despite huge establishment backing and massive spending, so he could miss the runoff or enter the general election weakened.
  3. Candidate quality still matters: nominating a controversial Republican like Paxton could make an otherwise GOP-favored Texas Senate race noticeably more competitive for Democrats, especially if Democrats pick a crossover-friendly nominee.

Who’s the real favorite in the Texas Senate primary?

Silver Bulletin • 401 implied HN points • 26 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Nonpartisan polls generally show Jasmine Crockett ahead, but the polling picture is messy because many polls are old or candidate‑sponsored and internal polls tend to overstate support.
  2. Prediction markets have been strongly favoring James Talarico since December, creating a notable divergence from the polls and implying bettors see information the polls might be missing.
  3. High early turnout, a young diverse Democratic electorate, and a contentious campaign mean the race is uncertain and could still head to a runoff, so neither polls nor markets tell the whole story.

Latest polls show TRUMP SURGE!

COVID Reason • 277 implied HN points • 11 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Recent polls show a close race between Trump and Harris, with some polls even indicating Trump is leading.
  2. In swing states like Arizona and Georgia, Trump is gaining popularity, showing his campaign could be strong.
  3. Kamala Harris is facing challenges in her campaign, struggling with media appearances and public perception.

If Newsom Is the Front-Runner, Democrats May Be Doomed

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1066 implied HN points • 02 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Gavin Newsom has surged into clear front-runner status for the 2028 Democratic nomination, leading major polls and betting markets.
  2. His national profile has been boosted by high-profile media attention and a nonstop political blitz that appeals to elites and tastemakers.
  3. There’s a real risk his elite-focused image won’t translate into votes in key states, repeating the danger of a liberal California Democrat failing to connect with the voters who decide national elections.

Which 2028 Democrats have the best electoral track record?

Silver Bulletin • 473 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Gavin Newsom has never lost statewide in California, but his victory margins are consistently smaller than the margins Democrats get in presidential years, so he underperforms the presidential benchmark.
  2. The Simple Benchmark (SB) Score compares a Democrat’s margin to the Democratic presidential baseline in their state or district, and it adjusts for non-presidential years using nearby presidential results and shifts in the House popular vote.
  3. Several Democrats — notably Andy Beshear, Amy Klobuchar, Ruben Gallego, Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro — post much stronger SB Scores, indicating they have better electoral track records and may be more electable than Newsom.

Harris vs Trump Poll Updates

COVID Reason • 99 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Kamala Harris is currently slightly ahead of Donald Trump in the polls, with a 1.6% lead.
  2. The polling data is based on a moving average from late September to mid-October.
  3. Recent individual polls show varying results, but overall, Harris remains ahead of Trump.

Kamala Harris has Liz Cheney Syndrome

Silver Bulletin • 481 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Harris ran a largely substance-free campaign and didn’t clearly signal her positions, so many voters defaulted to viewing her as left-wing instead of a centrist.
  2. Liz Cheney Syndrome is when different groups each see you as their ideological opposite, and the analysis shows voters reward candidates who seem to match their own views.
  3. Because Harris didn’t define herself strongly, opponents and ads filled the gap; clear messaging (and overcoming possible gendered typecasting) is crucial for persuading voters and reducing ideological distance.

Poll Update!

COVID Reason • 79 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. The latest poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by a small margin of 1.4%.
  2. This data is based on a 2-day moving average, reflecting opinions from late September to mid-October.
  3. The poll results can change quickly, so it's important to keep an eye on new updates as the election approaches.

SBSQ #29: Will AI terminate democracy? And why did Gallup terminate its approval ratings?

Silver Bulletin • 260 implied HN points • 16 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Gallup stopped its long-running presidential approval polling, likely from a mix of risk-averse business judgment and concern about political or legal pushback.
  2. Public polling is costly but acts as a prestige-building loss leader for Gallup’s consulting business, so ending the series sacrifices visibility to protect perceived commercial and contracting interests.
  3. There’s a broader pattern of independent media and pollsters becoming more responsive to political pressure, which can shrink critical coverage and make organizations more cautious.

Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?

Silver Bulletin • 379 implied HN points • 04 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Democrats hold a modest lead of about D +5.5 on the generic congressional ballot, up from roughly D +3 between June and November.
  2. Individual polls vary a lot — results this week ranged from about D +1 to D +9 — but the average smooths those swings and weights polls by pollster quality, sample size, recency, and frequency while preferring likely-voter samples.
  3. Many of the polls in the average were conducted before the Jan. 24 killing of Alex Pretti, so subsequent public reaction could push the generic ballot further toward Democrats, and paid subscribers can access state benchmarks and historical generic-ballot averages back to 1994.

Poll Update for Oct 4

COVID Reason • 138 implied HN points • 04 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. The latest poll shows Kamala Harris at 49.1% and Donald Trump at 46.9%. This gives Harris a small lead of 2.2%.
  2. The poll data covers a range of dates from September 19 to October 2.
  3. There are individual polls shown recently that provide more insights into the voting trends.

And Now, the Narrative Changes

Bulwark+ • 7075 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. The Republican Party is facing challenges due to a significant portion of voters who do not align with Trump's base.
  2. There's a shifting focus from primary battles to the upcoming general election, where Trump may struggle with moderates and independents.
  3. Biden's reelection campaign could benefit from improving economic optimism among voters, resembling Obama's successful 2012 campaign.

Daily Poll Alerts - 10/3

COVID Reason • 138 implied HN points • 03 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Harris is currently leading in the polls against Trump by about 2.2%.
  2. The poll data is based on a 2-day moving average for the dates 9/11 to 10/1.
  3. There are five individual polls included in this update, showcasing recent trends.

Midterm polls have good news, great news, and bad news for Democrats. Wait, what?

Silver Bulletin • 290 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Current generic-ballot polling shows Democrats up about 5.3 points, which could mean anything from a huge blue wave to a tiny Republican edge once the margin of error is considered.
  2. Historically the party out of the White House tends to win midterms by roughly 4.4 points, so Democrats are positioned to gain seats and could retake the House if that pattern holds.
  3. There’s substantial uncertainty: early-cycle polls have only a moderate correlation with the final House vote and an empirical error of about ±5.7 points, and partisan gerrymandering could blunt Democratic seat gains even with a popular-vote advantage.

How America's Accurate Election Polls Were Covered Up

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 11997 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Some polls are seen as biased or not reliable because they're labeled as 'partisan', even if they prove to be more accurate than those deemed 'nonpartisan'. This can affect their credibility.
  2. Wikipedia removed a popular polling aggregator, Real Clear Politics, right before the election, saying it had a bias, but later had to restore it after realizing its accuracy.
  3. There's a concern that mainstream media may manipulate polling data to fit a narrative, which can mislead the public about the actual state of elections.

Actually, sometimes polls underestimate Democrats

Silver Bulletin • 297 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Polls in 2025 were noticeably off, with average errors around seven points and an overall Republican bias near six points. New Jersey’s governor race was a major outlier where polls missed by roughly nine points.
  2. Bias shifts by cycle: presidential years have tended to underestimate Republicans because low‑propensity voters show up for presidential elections but are underrepresented in surveys, while midterm years usually have less bias. Pollsters’ weighting choices — like relying on recalled vote choice or past electorates — likely made 2025 polls less accurate.
  3. A handful of pollsters did well and most polls correctly picked winners, but small sample sizes and changing turnout patterns make single‑year ratings noisy. That uncertainty raises the risk that pollsters could overcorrect before the 2026 midterms.

TGIF: My Jeans Are Blue

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 2541 implied HN points • 01 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Democrats are struggling in polls, with a low approval rating that worries some about their future. Many people are unhappy with how things are going, which could lead to big changes in politics.
  2. Having two parties that people don't like can help keep political ideas in check, so that neither side dominates completely. It's like a balance where no one wins too much.
  3. The political landscape is shifting quickly, and some extreme views are becoming more normal. This could change the way people think and vote in the near future.

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

Silver Bulletin • 9424 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. In the final simulations for the election, Kamala Harris won slightly more than half of the time, but Donald Trump also had a strong chance, especially with potential ties in the Electoral College.
  2. The modeling approach adjusts for different polling methods and emphasizes reliable polls, aiming to offer a clearer picture of who might win the election.
  3. There’s still uncertainty in elections, and surprising outcomes can happen, so many factors could influence the final results.