The hottest Polling Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics
Steady • 28774 implied HN points • 18 Jan 24
  1. Evangelicals support Trump not necessarily because of religion but for reasons like opposing abortion and LGBTQ+ rights.
  2. Despite Trump's personal controversies, many white evangelical Christians see him as a savior figure saving the country from perceived threats.
  3. There is a shift in evangelical priorities, with church attendance declining and political identity becoming more significant.
Bulwark+ • 7075 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
  1. The Republican Party is facing challenges due to a significant portion of voters who do not align with Trump's base.
  2. There's a shifting focus from primary battles to the upcoming general election, where Trump may struggle with moderates and independents.
  3. Biden's reelection campaign could benefit from improving economic optimism among voters, resembling Obama's successful 2012 campaign.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:
Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1297 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
  1. Polling averages suggest a strong lead for Donald Trump in the Iowa caucuses.
  2. DeSantis has a strong ground organization in Iowa, but weather conditions may impact voter turnout.
  3. Results of the Iowa caucuses may significantly influence the momentum and outcomes of the presidential race.
Logging the World • 398 implied HN points • 18 Feb 24
  1. Opinion polling can be challenging due to issues with representativeness, such as demographic bias and sampling errors.
  2. Trends in polling data can be stable over time, and short-term fluctuations may not always indicate significant changes.
  3. Subsamples in polling data can lead to wider margins of error and may not always provide accurate insights, caution is advised when interpreting this data.
Silver Bulletin • 345 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
  1. Biden's low approval ratings are not solely due to negative economic sentiments, but they could be influenced by consumer perceptions.
  2. There is a divergence in consumer confidence surveys which impacts how people view the economy and subsequently rate Biden's performance.
  3. Concerns about Biden's age and fitness for office are significant factors affecting voter perception, potentially more than economic factors.
The Signorile Report • 1002 implied HN points • 25 Sep 23
  1. The Washington Post and ABC News published a flawed poll showing Trump leading Biden by 10 points, which was widely criticized and eventually disappeared from the Post homepage.
  2. Media organizations have a responsibility to provide accurate and reliable information, especially when conducting polls in a climate of misinformation and conspiracy theories.
  3. The methodology flaws in the poll, such as an unusual mix of respondents and misaligned results compared to other polls, highlighted the media malpractice in presenting and defending problematic data.
Geopolitical Economy Report • 1096 implied HN points • 10 Sep 23
  1. Most people in Germany and France blame the United States or NATO for the war in Ukraine, according to a survey by anti-Putin activists.
  2. The public opinion may not significantly affect government policies, as seen by Germany's Foreign Minister's statement about supporting Ukraine despite public opinion.
  3. Results from the polls show that many Europeans perceive the conflict in Ukraine not just as Kiev versus Moscow but as a larger proxy war involving NATO and the US against Russia.
Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 215 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
  1. Don't prioritize 'vibes' over actual data - the economy is actually excellent compared to past years.
  2. Partisanship influences perceptions of the economy - Democrats more optimistic than Republicans.
  3. Journalists sometimes emphasize negative news, even when data shows a positive economic situation.
INDIGNITY • 294 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
  1. The attorney for Donald Trump argued for presidential immunity extending to murder.
  2. Despite public dislike, Trump holds a lead over Biden in Michigan's 2024 presidential poll.
  3. Public opinion on Biden's unpopularity reflects various factors, and people crave a sense of control in their political choices.
Drezner’s World • 864 implied HN points • 01 Aug 23
  1. The NYT/Siena poll shows that Donald Trump is leading the GOP race by a significant margin.
  2. There is a significant portion of Republican voters who do not support Trump and prefer other candidates.
  3. Despite his strong base, Trump may struggle to win against a conventional rival and appeal to moderate voters in 2024.
Silver Bulletin • 358 implied HN points • 06 Nov 23
  1. 160 million Americans are eligible to be president, yet we have the same candidates running again.
  2. Trump and Biden are not very popular, with polls showing significant differences when matched against unnamed candidates.
  3. Younger voters seem less interested in Biden, especially due to concerns about his age.
Silver Bulletin • 238 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
  1. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s potential third-party run may not necessarily harm President Biden, and could even benefit him.
  2. Historically, third-party bids have had varied impacts and are not always spoilers in elections.
  3. Polls suggest that Trump supporters view Kennedy more favorably, and his issue positions may not align well with the college-educated Democratic base.
Comment is Freed • 56 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
  1. The recent by-elections have shown significant swings from Conservatives to Labour, with record-breaking numbers indicating a tough time for the Conservatives.
  2. The rise of the Reform party is impacting the Conservatives, pulling away voters who are dissatisfied with the government but hesitant to support traditional mainstream parties.
  3. Green Party votes are proving to be more resilient and less susceptible to being squeezed by other center-left parties, potentially affecting Labour in the long run.
Silver Bulletin • 227 implied HN points • 08 Sep 23
  1. Stay sane during the 2024 election by either ignoring the race or pacing yourself.
  2. It's too early to get caught up in polling details right now.
  3. The main things to know about the current election race are Biden, Trump, or someone else could win, and the odds don't change significantly day to day.
Who is Robert Malone • 22 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
  1. Hispanic Americans are mobilizing around Trump due to issues like border security and the belief he can fix the economy.
  2. Legal Hispanic immigrants feel frustrated by the US government prioritizing illegal immigrants with resources and benefits.
  3. Recent polling shows a significant shift in Hispanic voter support towards Trump, signaling a potential change in the 2024 election.
G. Elliott Morris's Newsletter • 137 implied HN points • 25 Feb 23
  1. Majority of Americans, including 40% of Republicans, support legal abortions
  2. Americans prefer government compromise over gridlock, especially regarding debt-ceiling decisions
  3. Historical evidence shows voters have historically punished presidents for poor economic performance
G. Elliott Morris's Newsletter • 117 implied HN points • 10 Apr 23
  1. Artificial intelligence and big data cannot fully replace public opinion polls, as they rely on polls for calibration and may not be as reliable for all groups.
  2. Changes in polling methods, like switching from phone to online surveys, can impact results, highlighting the importance of consistency over time.
  3. Studies show genuine change in attitudes, like increasing racial liberalism, but also caution against biases affecting survey responses.
Geopolitical Economy Report • 239 implied HN points • 04 Sep 21
  1. Around 2/3 of Nicaraguans support the leftist Sandinista Front, showing strong backing for the ruling government and President Daniel Ortega.
  2. Polls debunk the Western narrative of Nicaragua being a 'dictatorship,' with strong public confidence in the Sandinista government's respect for human rights and civil liberties.
  3. Nicaraguans display high levels of voter enthusiasm and satisfaction with democracy, supporting progressive government policies such as subsidies for housing, healthcare, and education.
Dominic Cummings substack • 12 implied HN points • 17 Apr 23
  1. New data shows Trump beating Biden and AOC & Kamala more easily
  2. Research conducted for the 2024 Presidential campaign focused on crucial issues like cost of living, health, and crime
  3. Efforts were made to ensure an accurate sample of low-education, low-trust voters to avoid polling errors
Wide World of News • 0 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
  1. Speculation is rising that both Biden and Trump may not be the major party nominees for the fall election.
  2. Factors like Supreme Court cases, Biden's gaffes, and policy matters are influencing this uncertainty.
  3. Concerns are growing about Biden's current strategy and possible need for a more aggressive communication approach.
Wide World of News • 0 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
  1. Don't underestimate the impact of the Iowa Poll on generating or killing campaign momentum.
  2. Be cautious about drawing conclusions from live cable news coverage of select caucuses.
  3. Pay attention to the semiotic significance of where candidates deliver speeches and how well they are covered.
Wide World of News • 0 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
  1. The post discusses a conversation about the final Iowa Poll and national polling with pollsters and experts.
  2. The conversation highlighted Trump's strength with his supporters and the enthusiasm of supporters for different potential candidates.
  3. There was also discussion about political danger Joe Biden faces based on sentiments from national polls.
The Washington Current • 0 implied HN points • 16 Jan 24
  1. Nearly 70% of Iowa Republican voters wrongly believe Biden stole the 2020 election.
  2. Major TV networks like CNN and MSNBC refused to air Trump's victory speech due to his history of spreading falsehoods and disinformation.
  3. Filtering Trump's statements is necessary as he continues to make false claims, like those about the 2020 election, impacting his coverage on major networks.