The hottest Polling Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top U.S. Politics Topics

Evangelicals for Trump? It's Not About Religion

Steady • 28774 implied HN points • 18 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Religion Society Polling Media
  1. Evangelicals support Trump not necessarily because of religion but for reasons like opposing abortion and LGBTQ+ rights.
  2. Despite Trump's personal controversies, many white evangelical Christians see him as a savior figure saving the country from perceived threats.
  3. There is a shift in evangelical priorities, with church attendance declining and political identity becoming more significant.

And Now, the Narrative Changes

Bulwark+ • 7075 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Media Partisanship Polling General election
  1. The Republican Party is facing challenges due to a significant portion of voters who do not align with Trump's base.
  2. There's a shifting focus from primary battles to the upcoming general election, where Trump may struggle with moderates and independents.
  3. Biden's reelection campaign could benefit from improving economic optimism among voters, resembling Obama's successful 2012 campaign.
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ZOE balls

Logging the World • 398 implied HN points • 18 Feb 24
🔬 Science Polling Trends Covid data
  1. Opinion polling can be challenging due to issues with representativeness, such as demographic bias and sampling errors.
  2. Trends in polling data can be stable over time, and short-term fluctuations may not always indicate significant changes.
  3. Subsamples in polling data can lead to wider margins of error and may not always provide accurate insights, caution is advised when interpreting this data.

Biden isn't losing because of bad economic vibes

Silver Bulletin • 345 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Polling
  1. Biden's low approval ratings are not solely due to negative economic sentiments, but they could be influenced by consumer perceptions.
  2. There is a divergence in consumer confidence surveys which impacts how people view the economy and subsequently rate Biden's performance.
  3. Concerns about Biden's age and fitness for office are significant factors affecting voter perception, potentially more than economic factors.

People Should Not Prioritize What They Think Are "Vibes" Over Actual Data: The Economic Situation Really Is—Relative to All Other Years since 2000—Excellent

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 215 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Media Polling Partisanship Data Analysis
  1. Don't prioritize 'vibes' over actual data - the economy is actually excellent compared to past years.
  2. Partisanship influences perceptions of the economy - Democrats more optimistic than Republicans.
  3. Journalists sometimes emphasize negative news, even when data shows a positive economic situation.

Media malpractice by The Washington Post and ABC News

The Signorile Report • 1002 implied HN points • 25 Sep 23
📰 News Media Polling Journalism Criticism Election
  1. The Washington Post and ABC News published a flawed poll showing Trump leading Biden by 10 points, which was widely criticized and eventually disappeared from the Post homepage.
  2. Media organizations have a responsibility to provide accurate and reliable information, especially when conducting polls in a climate of misinformation and conspiracy theories.
  3. The methodology flaws in the poll, such as an unusual mix of respondents and misaligned results compared to other polls, highlighted the media malpractice in presenting and defending problematic data.

USA & NATO responsible for Ukraine war, German & French public say in poll

Geopolitical Economy Report • 1096 implied HN points • 10 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Polling International relations
  1. Most people in Germany and France blame the United States or NATO for the war in Ukraine, according to a survey by anti-Putin activists.
  2. The public opinion may not significantly affect government policies, as seen by Germany's Foreign Minister's statement about supporting Ukraine despite public opinion.
  3. Results from the polls show that many Europeans perceive the conflict in Ukraine not just as Kiev versus Moscow but as a larger proxy war involving NATO and the US against Russia.

Donald Trump Will Lose in So Many Ways in 2024

Drezner’s World • 864 implied HN points • 01 Aug 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Polling Republican party General election
  1. The NYT/Siena poll shows that Donald Trump is leading the GOP race by a significant margin.
  2. There is a significant portion of Republican voters who do not support Trump and prefer other candidates.
  3. Despite his strong base, Trump may struggle to win against a conventional rival and appeal to moderate voters in 2024.

160 million Americans are eligible to be president. How did we end up with these two dudes again?

Silver Bulletin • 358 implied HN points • 06 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Polling Demographics
  1. 160 million Americans are eligible to be president, yet we have the same candidates running again.
  2. Trump and Biden are not very popular, with polls showing significant differences when matched against unnamed candidates.
  3. Younger voters seem less interested in Biden, especially due to concerns about his age.

Record Breakers

Comment is Freed • 56 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Conservatives
  1. The recent by-elections have shown significant swings from Conservatives to Labour, with record-breaking numbers indicating a tough time for the Conservatives.
  2. The rise of the Reform party is impacting the Conservatives, pulling away voters who are dissatisfied with the government but hesitant to support traditional mainstream parties.
  3. Green Party votes are proving to be more resilient and less susceptible to being squeezed by other center-left parties, potentially affecting Labour in the long run.

RFK Jr. probably won't hurt Biden. He might even help him.

Silver Bulletin • 238 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Campaign Strategy Polling
  1. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s potential third-party run may not necessarily harm President Biden, and could even benefit him.
  2. Historically, third-party bids have had varied impacts and are not always spoilers in elections.
  3. Polls suggest that Trump supporters view Kennedy more favorably, and his issue positions may not align well with the college-educated Democratic base.

It's gonna be a very long and exceptionally tedious road to November 2024

Silver Bulletin • 227 implied HN points • 08 Sep 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Polling Campaign Partisanship Presidential
  1. Stay sane during the 2024 election by either ignoring the race or pacing yourself.
  2. It's too early to get caught up in polling details right now.
  3. The main things to know about the current election race are Biden, Trump, or someone else could win, and the odds don't change significantly day to day.

Why are Hispanics Mobilizing Around Trump?

Who is Robert Malone • 22 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Immigration Polling Border Democrats
  1. Hispanic Americans are mobilizing around Trump due to issues like border security and the belief he can fix the economy.
  2. Legal Hispanic immigrants feel frustrated by the US government prioritizing illegal immigrants with resources and benefits.
  3. Recent polling shows a significant shift in Hispanic voter support towards Trump, signaling a potential change in the 2024 election.

Links for February 19-25, 2023 | Americans in most states support legal abortions; New graphs for showing polling uncertainty at PBS; And evidence of economic voting from the 1790s

G. Elliott Morris's Newsletter • 137 implied HN points • 25 Feb 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Abortion Polling Presidential elections
  1. Majority of Americans, including 40% of Republicans, support legal abortions
  2. Americans prefer government compromise over gridlock, especially regarding debt-ceiling decisions
  3. Historical evidence shows voters have historically punished presidents for poor economic performance

Artificial intelligence and "big data" cannot replace public opinion polls | #213 - April 10, 2023

G. Elliott Morris's Newsletter • 117 implied HN points • 10 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling Public Opinion Data science Political Analysis Social Trends
  1. Artificial intelligence and big data cannot fully replace public opinion polls, as they rely on polls for calibration and may not be as reliable for all groups.
  2. Changes in polling methods, like switching from phone to online surveys, can impact results, highlighting the importance of consistency over time.
  3. Studies show genuine change in attitudes, like increasing racial liberalism, but also caution against biases affecting survey responses.

2/3rds of Nicaraguans support leftist Sandinista Front: Poll debunks 'dictatorship' lie

Geopolitical Economy Report • 239 implied HN points • 04 Sep 21
🌍 World Politics Polling Parties Elections Democracy Sovereignty
  1. Around 2/3 of Nicaraguans support the leftist Sandinista Front, showing strong backing for the ruling government and President Daniel Ortega.
  2. Polls debunk the Western narrative of Nicaragua being a 'dictatorship,' with strong public confidence in the Sandinista government's respect for human rights and civil liberties.
  3. Nicaraguans display high levels of voter enthusiasm and satisfaction with democracy, supporting progressive government policies such as subsidies for housing, healthcare, and education.

#6 Regime Change: new data shows Trump beating Biden and beating AOC & Kamala more easily - plus DeSantis matchups

Dominic Cummings substack • 12 implied HN points • 17 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Data Analysis Technology Media
  1. New data shows Trump beating Biden and AOC & Kamala more easily
  2. Research conducted for the 2024 Presidential campaign focused on crucial issues like cost of living, health, and crime
  3. Efforts were made to ensure an accurate sample of low-education, low-trust voters to avoid polling errors

10 WAYS TO COVER/WATCH/ANALYZE THE IOWA CAUCUSES LIKE AN *AMATEUR*

Wide World of News • 0 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Analysis Campaign Strategy Media Coverage Presidential Race Polling
  1. Don't underestimate the impact of the Iowa Poll on generating or killing campaign momentum.
  2. Be cautious about drawing conclusions from live cable news coverage of select caucuses.
  3. Pay attention to the semiotic significance of where candidates deliver speeches and how well they are covered.

With Republicans Awash in Disinformation, Networks Cut Away from Iowa Winner

The Washington Current • 0 implied HN points • 16 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Disinformation Media Polling Immigration
  1. Nearly 70% of Iowa Republican voters wrongly believe Biden stole the 2020 election.
  2. Major TV networks like CNN and MSNBC refused to air Trump's victory speech due to his history of spreading falsehoods and disinformation.
  3. Filtering Trump's statements is necessary as he continues to make false claims, like those about the 2020 election, impacting his coverage on major networks.

The Most Likely Scenarios Where It’s NOT Biden Versus Trump

Wide World of News • 0 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Candidates Polling Democratic Party Republican party
  1. Speculation is rising that both Biden and Trump may not be the major party nominees for the fall election.
  2. Factors like Supreme Court cases, Biden's gaffes, and policy matters are influencing this uncertainty.
  3. Concerns are growing about Biden's current strategy and possible need for a more aggressive communication approach.