The hottest Polling Substack posts right now

Despite his flaws, Trump still maintains support from Republican voters.
Polling may reflect more discontent with Biden than actual love for Trump.
There is skepticism about Trump's ability to secure the Republican nomination and win against Biden.

Nearly 70% of Iowa Republican voters wrongly believe Biden stole the 2020 election.
Major TV networks like CNN and MSNBC refused to air Trump's victory speech due to his history of spreading falsehoods and disinformation.
Filtering Trump's statements is necessary as he continues to make false claims, like those about the 2020 election, impacting his coverage on major networks.

Speculation is rising that both Biden and Trump may not be the major party nominees for the fall election.
Factors like Supreme Court cases, Biden's gaffes, and policy matters are influencing this uncertainty.
Concerns are growing about Biden's current strategy and possible need for a more aggressive communication approach.

Many politicians publicly support impeachment, but that doesn't mean they're ready to turn that support into action. They want to be on record as in favor but aren't willing to risk their political power.
Impeachment could divide the Democratic Party, especially if the votes are close. If most Democrats support impeachment but significant numbers don't, it could weaken their position overall.
Just because a policy idea is popular doesn't mean it will help politicians get elected. They should think about how their stance will affect all their voters, not just those who agree with them.

Statistics can be surprising and should be taken seriously. Just because something looks odd doesn't mean it's not true.
Don't underestimate small sample results, like those from Dixville Notch. They can sometimes predict bigger trends.
Expect the unexpected in voting results. Surprising candidates can perform better than anticipated.

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The media benefits from portraying elections as competitive so they can attract more viewers and advertisers.
Democrats want the GOP primary to appear close so it can weaken resources for the Republican candidates.
Different parties and states involved in the primaries gain advantages and resources when the race seems undecided, even if it really isn't.

When discussing a candidate's chance of winning, it's important to avoid extreme statements like 'no chance.' It's better to recognize that while a candidate may be unlikely to win, they still have some chance.
Polling numbers can be misleading, and it's important to consider the candidate's fundamentals, like their overall support and viability.
Making bets or challenges can highlight different perspectives on a candidate's chances, but sometimes it's just a matter of semantics and how we interpret the odds.

Rick Perry's chances of becoming the GOP nominee have dropped after performing poorly in four debates.
Bayesian analysis shows that his updated probability of being the nominee is now 24%, down from 39%.
The discussion raises questions about how to accurately assess someone's debate performance and its impact on their nomination chances.

Chris Christie dropped out of the race, likely because he saw no viable path to winning. This opens the door for other potential candidates to make a comeback.
Polls can show fluctuating support for candidates, as they often reflect changing media attention more than actual voter conviction. This could mean candidates like Herman Cain gain initial popularity but might not last.
The Republican Party likely prefers safe candidates with known qualities like Mitt Romney to avoid risking their chances in the election. New or inexperienced candidates may not be seen as viable options in this context.

Some election nights can be very surprising, like a write-in candidate possibly winning. This can really keep everyone on the edge of their seats.
People have noticed that news channels are becoming more partisan over time, and it’s okay if they openly show their biases. It's better than pretending to be neutral.
The results for House and Senate races can differ a lot. Even if one party does well in one area, they might struggle in another, making elections unpredictable.