The hottest Polling Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

Polls vs Early Voting: the real data is bullish for Trump

The Dossier • 391 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Polls can be misleading and don't always reflect the true situation. What's more important is the actual voter turnout.
  2. Republican voters are showing strong motivation and participation in early voting. This could be a good sign for Trump's campaign.
  3. The media often pushes narratives that may not align with the reality of voter enthusiasm. It's key to focus on the numbers rather than just headlines.

Polling is becoming more of an art than a science

Silver Bulletin • 214 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Polling accuracy is becoming less predictable and more nuanced. Pollsters are feeling cautiously optimistic this time, although mistakes still happened in predicting election outcomes.
  2. Pollsters are likely to stick with their current methods for 2026. Many have already adapted and believe the changes they've made are effective enough for now.
  3. There is no single best way to conduct polls anymore. Different methods and tech are used by different polling organizations, which can lead to varied results.

POLLS CLOSED: First Election Prognoses Too Close to Call on Most Important Questions

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 169 implied HN points • 23 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. The election results are too close to call, making it hard to predict the outcome. This uncertainty means we'll have to wait for more counting before we know who really won.
  2. Some parties didn't do as well as expected while others performed better. It's surprising how quickly things can change in politics.
  3. Coalition possibilities are unclear because some smaller parties are close to the 5% threshold. This will impact how the bigger parties can team up to form a government.

Juggling for High Stakes, Nate Silver Expertly Keeps All the Balls in the Air

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 253 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Nate Silver analyzes the 2024 presidential polls by juggling different polls and what they say about the voters. He's trying to figure out whether the surprising results are due to model errors or actual changes in voter behavior.
  2. He believes that some pollsters may be hesitant to share results that seem too far from expected outcomes, leading to overly tight poll results. This herding effect makes it hard to know what's really going on in the electorate.
  3. Silver highlights the conflict between different polls, like Selzer's showing a lead for Harris in Iowa and Siena's favoring Trump in Arizona. If both polls are correct, it could suggest big shifts in voter preferences since past elections.

Why We Don't fight

Wrong Side of History • 541 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Polling
  1. The author no longer finds the idea of war appealing as they grow older.
  2. There is a reluctance among Britons to fight in potential wars, as shown by survey results.
  3. The UK military is facing recruitment shortages and struggles to meet personnel goals.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Why You Should Ignore All the Polls

The Ruffian • 227 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Polls don't really tell you what you need to know about elections. They can be misleading and don't account for many factors.
  2. When you feel tempted to constantly check election updates, try doing something else instead. Activities like walking or listening to music can make you feel better.
  3. No matter how informed you think you are, you can't predict the outcome of elections. It's better to accept uncertainty than stress about it.

Once More Telling People That They Should Take Nate Silver for Their Guru on Questions in His Lane

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 222 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Nate Silver is really good at understanding statistics and probabilities, so it's smart to listen to him when it comes to polls and predictions about elections.
  2. Billionaires don't know more about elections than anyone else; they often act based on their own interests and fears, not on secret insights.
  3. When looking at elections, focus on the polls instead of billionaires' actions. Polls can give us a clearer picture of what might happen, even if they're not perfect.

Silver Bulletin pollster ratings 2025 archive

Silver Bulletin • 6 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Pollsters are ranked by historical accuracy and transparency using a Predictive Plus-Minus score that is converted to letter grades. A negative plus-minus means the pollster is expected to be more accurate than average.
  2. The ratings use multiple measures — simple and advanced plus-minus, mean-reverted bias, house effects, and an ADPA herding penalty — and give bonuses for transparency like AAPOR or Roper Center sharing. These metrics together adjust for sample size, timing, and how a poll compares to others.
  3. The archive was updated with hundreds of new polls from the 2024 presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections, and full datasets (pollster stats and raw polls) are available for download. The update shifted some ratings but the top pollsters remained largely the same.

The Polling Cave

Thinking about... • 180 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Polls can create a false sense of reality during elections. They focus mainly on candidates instead of the important policies that affect our lives.
  2. The media often exaggerates the significance of polls, making us feel anxious about close races. In reality, polls just indicate possibilities, not certainties.
  3. It's important to engage with the real world and vote, rather than getting stuck in the 'polling cave.' Our actions can lead to meaningful change outside of the shadows created by polls.

Decoding a Strange Gallup Poll

I Might Be Wrong • 4 implied HN points • 23 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. A growing share of Americans — especially young people — say they are political independents.
  2. Saying you’re "independent" can be superficial: many people who pick that label still lean toward one party and may be signaling image more than true neutrality.
  3. The rise in independents doesn’t automatically mean there’s appetite for a centrist party, but it does make Democrats’ choice to move center or left strategically consequential for future outcomes.

Biden isn't losing because of bad economic vibes

Silver Bulletin • 345 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Biden's low approval ratings are not solely due to negative economic sentiments, but they could be influenced by consumer perceptions.
  2. There is a divergence in consumer confidence surveys which impacts how people view the economy and subsequently rate Biden's performance.
  3. Concerns about Biden's age and fitness for office are significant factors affecting voter perception, potentially more than economic factors.

People Should Not Prioritize What They Think Are "Vibes" Over Actual Data: The Economic Situation Really Is—Relative to All Other Years since 2000—Excellent

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 215 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Don't prioritize 'vibes' over actual data - the economy is actually excellent compared to past years.
  2. Partisanship influences perceptions of the economy - Democrats more optimistic than Republicans.
  3. Journalists sometimes emphasize negative news, even when data shows a positive economic situation.

Links for February 19-25, 2023 | Americans in most states support legal abortions; New graphs for showing polling uncertainty at PBS; And evidence of economic voting from the 1790s

G. Elliott Morris's Newsletter • 138 implied HN points • 25 Feb 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Majority of Americans, including 40% of Republicans, support legal abortions
  2. Americans prefer government compromise over gridlock, especially regarding debt-ceiling decisions
  3. Historical evidence shows voters have historically punished presidents for poor economic performance

Artificial intelligence and "big data" cannot replace public opinion polls | #213 - April 10, 2023

G. Elliott Morris's Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 10 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Artificial intelligence and big data cannot fully replace public opinion polls, as they rely on polls for calibration and may not be as reliable for all groups.
  2. Changes in polling methods, like switching from phone to online surveys, can impact results, highlighting the importance of consistency over time.
  3. Studies show genuine change in attitudes, like increasing racial liberalism, but also caution against biases affecting survey responses.

July 20, 2025

Letters from an American • 23 implied HN points • 21 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Many Americans disapprove of Trump's immigration policies and fear mass deportations. Recent polls show a significant amount of opposition to his actions.
  2. Trump's popularity is declining, with people believing his policies have harmed them more than helped. This includes negative views on tariffs and overall job approval.
  3. There is growing public demand for transparency regarding the Epstein case, with a large majority wanting all related documents released by the government.

RFK Jr. probably won't hurt Biden. He might even help him.

Silver Bulletin • 238 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s potential third-party run may not necessarily harm President Biden, and could even benefit him.
  2. Historically, third-party bids have had varied impacts and are not always spoilers in elections.
  3. Polls suggest that Trump supporters view Kennedy more favorably, and his issue positions may not align well with the college-educated Democratic base.

Election 2024: The Day Before

The Reactionary • 82 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Republicans are feeling more confident going into the 2024 election, especially with recent polling showing Trump gaining ground in key swing states. The mood has shifted significantly in the last couple of months.
  2. Early voting results indicate that Republicans have better turnout compared to Democrats, especially in states like Nevada and Pennsylvania. This may suggest a problem with Democrat enthusiasm compared to the previous election.
  3. In several swing states, urban and female voter turnout is down compared to 2020, while rural turnout is up for Republicans. This shift could impact the overall election results.

Election Update #12: Is the Democratic Enthusiasm Advantage Already Showing Up?

Phillips’s Newsletter • 83 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Many people have already voted, showing a lot of early engagement. This trend is higher compared to most past elections, but still lower than during the pandemic in 2020.
  2. Women are leading in turnout, especially in key swing states. Their participation could play a big role in this election's outcome.
  3. The current election feels more like recent years (2022) than the previous presidential elections (2016, 2020). Polling predictions may not fully capture this shift in voter sentiment.

2/3rds of Nicaraguans support leftist Sandinista Front: Poll debunks 'dictatorship' lie

Geopolitical Economy Report • 239 implied HN points • 04 Sep 21
🌍 World Politics Polling
  1. Around 2/3 of Nicaraguans support the leftist Sandinista Front, showing strong backing for the ruling government and President Daniel Ortega.
  2. Polls debunk the Western narrative of Nicaragua being a 'dictatorship,' with strong public confidence in the Sandinista government's respect for human rights and civil liberties.
  3. Nicaraguans display high levels of voter enthusiasm and satisfaction with democracy, supporting progressive government policies such as subsidies for housing, healthcare, and education.

Election Update #11: The race hasn't "narrowed"

Phillips’s Newsletter • 80 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Trump's support may be increasing, or Harris is holding her lead steady. It's not clear which one is happening right now.
  2. Polls show that despite some recent changes, Harris's overall lead is still solid according to longer-term trends.
  3. Even though the numbers seem to be tightening, this election still has one of the most stable polling environments in US history.

Election Update #10 Harris Bounces Back

Phillips’s Newsletter • 75 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Recently, there's been a boost in confidence about Harris' campaign, even though it might not be fully backed by solid evidence.
  2. It's important to be aware of your media bubble. It can shape what stories you see and make you believe things that might not be true.
  3. Trusting only the sources that confirm what you want to believe can lead to being misled, so it's good to check various viewpoints.

Your guide to watching the US election

Comment is Freed • 63 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Polls are hard to trust this election because they might be missing certain groups of voters. Some people who usually don’t vote are expected to show up but are less likely to answer polls.
  2. Different states have different rules for counting votes, which can make it tricky to know the results quickly. Some states can count early votes before polls close, while others cannot.
  3. US exit polls are often not very helpful for predicting results. Unlike the UK, they don’t provide clear insight into voting intentions and motivations.

Record Breakers

Comment is Freed • 56 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. The recent by-elections have shown significant swings from Conservatives to Labour, with record-breaking numbers indicating a tough time for the Conservatives.
  2. The rise of the Reform party is impacting the Conservatives, pulling away voters who are dissatisfied with the government but hesitant to support traditional mainstream parties.
  3. Green Party votes are proving to be more resilient and less susceptible to being squeezed by other center-left parties, potentially affecting Labour in the long run.

Who Is Going to be the Next Mayor of New York?

Political Currents by Ross Barkan • 11 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Mayor Eric Adams is likely to lose the re-election in 2026 due to low approval ratings and issues of corruption in his administration.
  2. There are currently five main Democratic candidates who might run to replace him, with some emerging women candidates as potential long-shots.
  3. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo is showing interest in running again and seems to be leading in the polls, making the race more competitive.

Why are Hispanics Mobilizing Around Trump?

Who is Robert Malone • 22 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Hispanic Americans are mobilizing around Trump due to issues like border security and the belief he can fix the economy.
  2. Legal Hispanic immigrants feel frustrated by the US government prioritizing illegal immigrants with resources and benefits.
  3. Recent polling shows a significant shift in Hispanic voter support towards Trump, signaling a potential change in the 2024 election.

#6 Regime Change: new data shows Trump beating Biden and beating AOC & Kamala more easily - plus DeSantis matchups

Dominic Cummings substack • 12 implied HN points • 17 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. New data shows Trump beating Biden and AOC & Kamala more easily
  2. Research conducted for the 2024 Presidential campaign focused on crucial issues like cost of living, health, and crime
  3. Efforts were made to ensure an accurate sample of low-education, low-trust voters to avoid polling errors

UPDATED:The Polls Explained

Wide World of News • 0 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. The post discusses a conversation about the final Iowa Poll and national polling with pollsters and experts.
  2. The conversation highlighted Trump's strength with his supporters and the enthusiasm of supporters for different potential candidates.
  3. There was also discussion about political danger Joe Biden faces based on sentiments from national polls.

With Republicans Awash in Disinformation, Networks Cut Away from Iowa Winner

The Washington Current • 0 implied HN points • 16 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Nearly 70% of Iowa Republican voters wrongly believe Biden stole the 2020 election.
  2. Major TV networks like CNN and MSNBC refused to air Trump's victory speech due to his history of spreading falsehoods and disinformation.
  3. Filtering Trump's statements is necessary as he continues to make false claims, like those about the 2020 election, impacting his coverage on major networks.

Fine, I'll Talk About Impeachment

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 30 Jul 19
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Many politicians publicly support impeachment, but that doesn't mean they're ready to turn that support into action. They want to be on record as in favor but aren't willing to risk their political power.
  2. Impeachment could divide the Democratic Party, especially if the votes are close. If most Democrats support impeachment but significant numbers don't, it could weaken their position overall.
  3. Just because a policy idea is popular doesn't mean it will help politicians get elected. They should think about how their stance will affect all their voters, not just those who agree with them.

Trump's Spell?

Dana’s Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Despite his flaws, Trump still maintains support from Republican voters.
  2. Polling may reflect more discontent with Biden than actual love for Trump.
  3. There is skepticism about Trump's ability to secure the Republican nomination and win against Biden.

Gell-Mann Polling

The Grey Matter • 0 implied HN points • 22 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Be cautious when responding to online surveys or polls - your quick clicks may skew results.
  2. Consider the implications of data collected from hasty clicks to dismiss pop-ups.
  3. Question the validity and impact of survey data that may misrepresent public knowledge.