Contemplations on the Tree of Woe • 1176 implied HN points • 31 Dec 25
- Japan’s huge debt, rising interest rates, and a weakening yen risk triggering a global unwind of yen-funded carry trades that could force selling of US Treasuries and equities.
- Massive government overspending and money-supply expansion are debasing fiat currencies, pushing investors and central banks to buy physical gold as a long-term store of value and weakening the dollar’s dominance.
- Silver faces a real physical shortage because paper contracts far exceed available metal and industrial demand is rising, causing backwardation, squeeze risk, and extreme price volatility.