The hottest Primaries Substack posts right now

The mainstream media's coverage of Trump's campaign is deceptive and dangerous
Trump's dominance in the primaries is not surprising given his history in the Republican Party
Despite success in the primaries, the reality is different for Trump in the general election

The Texas Republican primary is tilting toward Ken Paxton, a MAGA-aligned, scandal-plagued candidate who leads recent polls and looks likely to make the runoff.
John Cornyn is underperforming despite huge establishment backing and massive spending, so he could miss the runoff or enter the general election weakened.
Candidate quality still matters: nominating a controversial Republican like Paxton could make an otherwise GOP-favored Texas Senate race noticeably more competitive for Democrats, especially if Democrats pick a crossover-friendly nominee.

Nonpartisan polls generally show Jasmine Crockett ahead, but the polling picture is messy because many polls are old or candidate‑sponsored and internal polls tend to overstate support.
Prediction markets have been strongly favoring James Talarico since December, creating a notable divergence from the polls and implying bettors see information the polls might be missing.
High early turnout, a young diverse Democratic electorate, and a contentious campaign mean the race is uncertain and could still head to a runoff, so neither polls nor markets tell the whole story.

Nevada is politically purple with a huge bloc of independents, many of whom lean conservative. Gerrymandering and closed primaries push candidates toward the extremes.
If you lean right, changing your registration to Republican gives you a real voice in picking primary candidates instead of being sidelined as an independent. Staying nonpartisan means you won’t help choose the party’s nominee.
Changing party registration is quick and simple: you can update online with a state ID, or do it in person or by mail through your county election office, and you’ll receive a new registration card when it’s processed.

Democratic voters are angry and are gravitating toward combative, base-oriented candidates, so a message like “when we fight, we win” will be powerful in primaries even if it hurts general-election prospects.
Selling moderation and “electability” is getting harder because many Democrats distrust the establishment, prefer anger-forward messaging, and turnout-based strategies no longer reliably favor Democrats.
In Texas specifically, centrist options like Colin Allred stepped back while James Talarico may be the more electable choice, but insurgent figures like Jasmine Crockett have strong base appeal and the party can’t easily stop less-general-election-friendly nominees.

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Democrats are facing messy, high‑stakes primaries that show a sharp split between establishment progressives and newer, more radical insurgents in cities like San Francisco and New York.
Iranian women and broader segments of society are openly defying mandatory veil laws and reviving long‑standing democratic currents, suggesting the regime is losing its ideological hold.
Zohran Mamdani’s victory has exposed deep generational and familial rifts in Jewish communities, with many parents alarmed that their children supported his socialist and anti‑Israel positions.

A faction of energized progressives is pushing the Democratic Party away from its moderate, establishment leaders and favoring candidates who refuse to compromise.
Primary fights in places like Maine and Texas could show whether this movement becomes the party’s main direction.
There’s a real risk that base-pleasing candidates who alienate moderates will win primaries but struggle or lose in general elections.

Current polls and market odds show different people leading the 2028 Democratic primary, but those snapshots are noisy and basically meaningless this far out.
Primary races are extremely volatile: presumed frontrunners often collapse, pundit-loved late entrants usually flame out, and campaigns written off as dead can suddenly rebound.
Early states like Iowa and New Hampshire have outsized, quirky effects on momentum (New Hampshire especially likes to buck Iowa), so watch them but don’t overreact — it’s still too early to pick a winner.