The hottest Regional Markets Substack posts right now

National house-price growth is stalling: Freddie Mac's index fell 0.13% month-over-month and is up just 0.4% year-over-year, the lowest point in this cycle and essentially flat over the past nine months, so prices could turn negative year-over-year in 2026.
Many places are still below prior peaks: 36 states plus D.C. and most metropolitan areas remain under their previous highs, with the biggest declines concentrated in Florida and California—Punta Gorda is roughly 22% below its recent peak and Austin about 18% down.
Signals point to further cooling but with regional differences: Freddie Mac and NAR readings suggest Case-Shiller will show smaller year-over-year gains, and rising inventory alongside record-low sales has slowed national price growth, though outcomes will vary by market.

Existing home sales remain weak — about 3.9 million SAAR and roughly 27% below pre‑pandemic levels, and sales have been unusually low for more than three years.
Housing inventory is rising year‑over‑year and months‑of‑supply are nearing pre‑pandemic norms, which increases the chance that national prices could start to decline sometime in 2026.
Prices are mixed: the national median is only slightly up year‑over‑year, but some local markets (notably California) have seen significant price drops, so conditions vary a lot by region.

National house prices barely rose — up 0.7% year-over-year in December and essentially flat month-to-month, marking a cycle low and raising the risk that YoY growth could turn negative in 2026.
Many markets are down from recent peaks — 23 states and D.C. are below their previous highs, and the biggest city declines are concentrated in Florida, Texas, and California with Punta Gorda and Austin among the worst performers.
Market signals point to further cooling — Freddie Mac and NAR measures seem to lead Case-Shiller, and rising inventory plus the lowest sales since 1995 have slowed national price growth and may push it lower.

The NAR is reporting existing-home sales much earlier in the month now. That shortens the window for early projections and may lead to bigger revisions in the initial numbers.
Inventory is rising across markets — Altos shows single-family active listings up about 10% year‑over‑year and regional samples show inventory up roughly 7–11%. This suggests supply may have bottomed and is returning ahead of the usual spring pickup.
Sales are mixed: December had modest year‑over‑year gains but 2025 was the weakest annual sales year since 1995. In California sales edged up slightly while the statewide median price fell, pointing to softer demand and a more balanced market.

Semiconductors are the best area to invest right now because system-level innovations like chiplets, advanced packaging, and heterogeneous computing are creating new opportunities beyond Moore’s Law. These shifts make startup-driven hardware innovation more valuable than before.
With the right funding and momentum, Europe could produce many semiconductor giants; the region has the talent and existing industrial strengths to support about 20 potential unicorns in the next 3–4 years. Keeping founders and capital in Europe is key to building that pipeline.
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Reports are being released earlier, which shrinks the early sample used for forecasts and raises the chance of bigger revisions; recent winter storms also delayed some closings and could make January sales look weaker than they really were.
In the local markets that have reported, closed sales are down noticeably year‑over‑year (around -5.6% NSA), so seasonally‑adjusted national sales for January are more likely to be flat or slightly down instead of a strong gain.
New listings are modestly down (~1.6% YoY) while active inventory is up (~5.8% YoY), so supply is higher than a year ago but still mixed compared with pre‑pandemic 2019 levels.

Analysts focus on a few key drivers of company performance and change those priorities as the macro environment changes. For example, during inflation they paid more attention to supply-chain disruptions and rising costs.
Valuation methods vary by region and shape what analysts look at: multiples (especially P/E) dominate in North America and Asia while DCFs are more common elsewhere, and multiples push analysts to stress customers, pricing and margins while DCFs push them to stress macro risk and investment activity.
Relying on a single valuation method creates biased attention and mispricing — analysts using multiples tend to overreact to firm-level drivers and underreact to macro factors — so blending multiple valuation approaches gives a more balanced view and can reveal investment opportunities.