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Existing-home inventory has risen and months-of-inventory are mostly above pre‑pandemic levels, putting downward pressure on prices and making a year‑over‑year price decline possible this year, though a large wave of distressed sales is unlikely because most owners have strong equity and low mortgage rates.
The housing market is uneven across regions: some areas are seeing bigger inventory increases and price drops, while places like the Northeast have smaller inventory gains and continuing price increases.
Homebuilders look to have a rough 2026 with many completed and under‑construction homes unsold, leading to price cuts to compete with existing‑home inventory; overall active listings are up year‑over‑year but remain below typical 2017–2019 levels and the pace of growth is slowing.

U.S. house prices rose modestly year-over-year — the Case-Shiller national index was up about 1.4% and the FHFA index about 1.9% — but inflation outpaced those gains so real home values fell.
There is a sharp regional split: Midwestern and Northeastern markets led gains (Chicago +5.7%, New York +5.0%), while several Sun Belt cities showed year-over-year declines (Tampa −3.9%, Phoenix −1.4%, Dallas −1.4%, Miami −1.0%).
Monthly data show small positive momentum after earlier declines — Case-Shiller rose about 0.4% month-to-month (seasonally adjusted) and FHFA rose about 0.6% — yet overall price momentum remains muted and many metros saw monthly drops before seasonal adjustment.

Early-January rate declines toward 6% opened large refinance opportunities for millions and pushed affordability to a four-year high, but prices remain elevated relative to incomes.
National home price growth slowed to its weakest pace since 2011, with the South and West weakening while the Northeast and Midwest hold firmer, and inventories still lagging pre-pandemic norms in many areas.
Negative equity has risen to the highest level since 2018, concentrated in recent loan vintages and in several Southern markets where over 10% of mortgaged homes are underwater.

Freddie Mac’s national house price index rose 1.0% year‑over‑year in November, but that is a new cycle low and monthly gains are very small, so overall growth is slowing and could turn negative sometime in 2026.
Nineteen states and D.C. remain below their prior price peaks and many cities have large drops — Punta Gorda is down about 21% from its recent peak and Austin is down over 17%.
Rising inventory and weak sales are reducing upward price pressure, and Freddie Mac and NAR data suggest other indexes like Case‑Shiller will likely show a similar slowdown.

U.S. house prices are only rising modestly: Case‑Shiller’s national index is up about 1.4% year‑over‑year and the FHFA index is up about 1.7%, with small monthly gains after prior declines.
There is strong regional divergence: Midwestern and Northeastern metros (e.g., Chicago +5.8%, New York +5.0%) are leading, while many Sun Belt markets (e.g., Tampa −4.2%, Phoenix −1.5%, Dallas −1.5%, Miami −1.1%) are down.
High mortgage rates are hurting affordability and price momentum—16 of 20 major cities fell month‑to‑month—so national home price gains lag consumer inflation and imply slight declines in real (inflation‑adjusted) home values.

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National house prices were mostly flat in 2025 with small year‑over‑year gains around 1–2%, so the outlook for 2026 is uncertain.
Short‑term indicators (Case‑Shiller, Freddie Mac, NAR median) show only slight month‑to‑month gains and suggest year‑over‑year changes will likely stay in that small range or edge down in the near term.
Supply and demand are the key drivers and there are big regional differences — areas with high inventory and rising months‑of‑supply could see local price declines even if the national average remains flat.