David Friedman’s Substack • 260 implied HN points • 20 Dec 25
- Total fertility rate (TFR) is a snapshot-based prediction that can underestimate the number of children women will actually have if they postpone births, while completed fertility rate (CFR) is what determines population change.
- There is a biological limit to how late people can have children, so shifting births to older ages can only go so far, though advances in reproductive technology could change that limit.
- Life expectancy at birth (an estimated measure) is also a prophecy and can fall during temporary mortality shocks even though completed life expectancy will likely be higher if mortality rates continue to decline.