The hottest Trade policy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

The cost of CBAM

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 24 Nov 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Trade policy
  1. CBAM will raise EU import and export prices only very slightly on average, so it is unlikely to drive broad inflation or meaningfully cut business profits.
  2. The price impact is highly uneven across countries and products: some imports like cement from dirty producers can become many tens of percent more expensive, while most goods see negligible increases.
  3. Those targeted price increases make polluting imports less competitive and incentivise cleaner production or sourcing, pushing exporters to upgrade their methods to stay in the EU market.

Present at the Destruction

The Cosmopolitan Globalist • 7 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The U.S. has built a strong global order through NATO and free trade after World War II, which led to peace and prosperity. This system is now in jeopardy due to current policies that threaten these alliances.
  2. The recent political shifts in the U.S. are causing worries among European nations about their security, as there is a sense that they can no longer rely on American support. This fear has led Europe to rethink its defense strategies.
  3. A shift away from established democratic values and alliances can lead to chaos and potential conflicts, as abandoning cooperation only benefits adversaries like Russia and China.

Macro America Great Again

Some Unpleasant Arithmetic • 8 implied HN points • 28 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Tariffs are taxes on imports that can increase prices for consumers. When companies bring products from abroad, they pay these taxes when the goods arrive in the country.
  2. The concept of comparative advantage suggests that countries should specialize in what they do best. This means countries can save money and resources by trading instead of trying to produce everything themselves.
  3. Using tariffs can lead to higher prices and less efficiency in production. This approach can disrupt supply chains and hurt the overall economy, making things more expensive for everyone.

Nyhetsbrev steigan.no 01.12.2024

steigan.no • 8 implied HN points • 01 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The situation in Syria is tense, with strong international forces involved, making it a focal point of global conflict. Syria's challenges are compounded by the involvement of various militias and foreign nations.
  2. Donald Trump has made threats against BRICS countries regarding their financial independence from the US dollar. This could lead to significant economic changes, not only for those countries but also for American consumers.
  3. Germany is facing economic issues that are causing industries to shift operations to China. This move may have long-term effects on employment and the balance of economic power in Europe.

Nyhetsbrev steigan.no 02.02.2025

steigan.no • 5 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The war in Ukraine is showing signs of collapse for Ukraine's front lines. This highlights the challenges that Western military support has faced.
  2. African countries are distancing themselves from France, with many ending military agreements and calling for the removal of French troops. This marks a significant shift in former colonial relationships.
  3. Trump's trade policies could destabilize the global economy by harming the ability of countries like Mexico to pay off debts. This could lead to broader economic issues and potential defaults.
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Biden’s Trumpian Talks With Japan on Steel Tariffs

Japan Economy Watch • 19 implied HN points • 16 Nov 21
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Biden continued Trump's trade policies, including tariffs, using them as bargaining chips in trade talks with Japan and Europe.
  2. The US is reportedly using climate change as a reason to negotiate tariffs on steel and other products based on their carbon emissions intensity, potentially impacting allies like Japan.
  3. Biden's administration is aiming to reconcile protectionist/nationalist and climate change agendas in trade policies, facing challenges from different voter bases.

The National Defense Argument

Economic Forces • 3 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The national defense argument is often used to justify tariffs and subsidies. However, many economists view it skeptically, thinking it's a way for special interest groups to gain advantages.
  2. Earl Thompson's theory suggests that during wartime, price controls can distort markets. To fix this, policymakers might provide peacetime subsidies to help industries that would struggle because of these wartime distortions.
  3. Applying this theory today, tariffs on steel and aluminum may be reasonable since these materials are critical for national defense and are hard to import in times of war.

Chinese scholars respond to Trump 2.0

Beijing Channel • 3 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Trump's second term may lead to a more aggressive stance against China, especially regarding tariffs and trade policies. This could create more friction between the two countries.
  2. Experts believe Trump's approach will result in decreased cooperation on global issues like climate change. There might be fewer dialogues and exchanges between the U.S. and China.
  3. Overall, the international landscape has changed since Trump's first term. There's a worry that his unpredictable nature could escalate tensions and lead to conflicts, especially over Taiwan.

Exports are what you pay for imports

Wrong ideas strongly held • 0 implied HN points • 06 Apr 25
💰 Finance Trade policy
  1. When a country imports more than it exports, it can seem like a bad deal, but it often leads to gaining valuable goods. The value comes from the items received, not the currency exchanged.
  2. People usually trust money because they need it to pay taxes. This makes currency valuable even if it seems like just paper.
  3. If a country keeps trading real goods for currency without producing anything in return, it could face problems later. Eventually, the countries trading with it may realize they’re not getting fair value.

US Losing Its Capability To Be Benign Hegemon

Japan Economy Watch • 0 implied HN points • 28 Sep 16
🌍 World Politics Trade policy
  1. For decades, the US has been seen as a benevolent global leader, especially in terms of trade liberalization, which helped maintain stability and prosperity among allies.
  2. Both Democrats and Republicans in the US are now turning away from open trade policies, continuing a shift that began with Trump's administration.
  3. The US's negotiation of the Trans Pacific Partnership signaled a significant change in its postwar approach to international relations and trade.

Macro Thinker: Lawrence Summers on Trump and The Fed

The Octavian Report • 0 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
💰 Finance Trade policy
  1. The Fed is tightening too much too quickly; policymakers should allow a mild overshoot of the 2% inflation target and seriously consider new frameworks like a higher inflation target or nominal GDP targeting.
  2. The biggest macro risk is a coming recession when monetary policy may have little room to cut rates and fiscal authorities might be unwilling to act, so governments and central banks should prepare now.
  3. Crises often require government-led spending and borrowing to restore confidence, and at the same time waning trust in experts and growing speech intolerance on campuses threaten open debate and sound policymaking.

231 | What's in store for 2026? | Tariffs + food fraud risk + mitigations |

The Rotten Apple • 0 implied HN points • 23 Mar 26
🍲 Food & Drink Trade policy
  1. Expect several new food-safety risks in 2026 including changing demand from GLP-1 drugs, novel and psychotropic ingredients, shifting allergen concerns, AI-driven product development, and climate-driven microbial and toxin threats like algal blooms and heat-linked Salmonella.
  2. New or increased tariffs raise food-fraud risk by creating price pressure, lengthening complex supply chains, and encouraging transhipment and origin-washing, so affected ingredients should be flagged as higher risk in vulnerability assessments.
  3. Fraud tactics are evolving — AI-made fake certificates, stolen-to-order schemes, packaging-artwork theft and e-commerce sales make counterfeits easier — so re-verify suppliers and documents, monitor trade routes and tariffs, and use targeted analytical testing to verify authenticity.