The hottest Trade policy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

Does anyone know why we're still doing tariffs?

Noahpinion • 29706 implied HN points • 22 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The Supreme Court blocked the president's use of IEEPA for blanket tariffs, taking away an easy "on/off" tariff switch. Other laws still allow temporary or targeted tariffs, and the administration has already used Section 122 to impose 10–15% levies, so tariffs will keep happening.
  2. The tariffs failed to fix the trade deficit or revive manufacturing; they raised input costs, hurt factory activity, and led foreign exporters to cut shipments instead of absorbing the taxes. Most of the burden was passed to U.S. consumers and businesses, and the policy is deeply unpopular.
  3. A major reason the administration persists with tariffs is power: country-specific tariffs and carve-outs give the president leverage, opportunities for favoritism, and political influence. That suggests the policy is driven more by a desire for presidential control than by sound economics, which is why courts pushed back.

Monopoly Round-Up: Trump Loses on Tariffs, Has His 'Withdrawal from Afghanistan' Moment

BIG by Matt Stoller • 23721 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The Supreme Court said presidents can’t use IEEPA to impose tariffs, so the administration is pivoting to other trade laws to try to keep levies in place.
  2. Economically the ruling probably won’t move markets much because other authorities exist, but politically it’s a big blow that strips the president of a fast, unilateral tool and weakens his standing.
  3. Expect messy fallout: questions about $175 billion in refunds, lawsuits and corruption probes, and increased scrutiny of corporate mergers and firms that cooperated with the tariff program.

The Myth of the "Heritage American"

American Dreaming • 200 implied HN points • 18 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. A growing ethnic-nationalist idea called the “Heritage American” wants to define Americanness by ancestry instead of shared civic principles.
  2. Treating law and government like a family business where loyalty to a leader beats principle lets leaders reshape institutions to fit their desires and punishes dissent.
  3. When policy follows personal whims or in-group identity rather than stable laws and institutions, it creates economic and political instability, so protecting the country means defending liberal principles and the rule of law.

Let the Chinese cars in

Noahpinion • 27529 implied HN points • 27 Jan 26
💼 Business Trade policy
  1. The U.S. should allow Chinese electric cars in under tight rules — low tariffs and limited imports at first, plus requirements for U.S. factories, joint ventures, and local content to spur domestic production.
  2. Cheap, high-quality Chinese EVs would raise American EV adoption, expand charging infrastructure, and force U.S. automakers to invest and innovate, helping rebuild the domestic battery and motor supply chain.
  3. Espionage and sabotage are real risks, but they can be managed with strong cybersecurity, oversight, American-hosted software and networks, and strict monitoring of components, making controlled access preferable to an outright ban.

America's chip export controls are working

Noahpinion • 18294 implied HN points • 02 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Export controls on advanced chips and equipment are effectively slowing China’s progress and help the U.S. keep a crucial technological edge that supports military deterrence.
  2. Allowing sales of powerful chips like Nvidia’s H200 would sharply reduce America’s AI compute advantage and let Chinese AI labs catch up faster, increasing the risk of conflict.
  3. Many touted Chinese breakthroughs (e.g., 7nm or EUV prototypes) are overstated and China still faces major technical and supply-chain hurdles, so selling chips won’t stop indigenization and may only accelerate China’s capabilities.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Chartbook 434 Back to the 1970s (again) - Trump and the balance of payments.

Chartbook • 1845 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
💰 Finance Trade policy
  1. The 1974 Trade Act’s talk of a “balance-of-payments deficit” comes from the Bretton Woods era when reserve outflows mattered, so that framing doesn’t fit today’s floating-rate, fiat-dollar system and the U.S. isn’t facing a reserve-run-out problem.
  2. The law also cites “fundamental international payments problems” and “disequilibrium”; the U.S. doesn’t have classic payments problems because it issues the global currency, but claiming an international disequilibrium is a more plausible legal route to justify tariffs.
  3. Relying on 1970s emergency statutes to impose tariffs reflects a recurring return to 1970s crisis rhetoric and political constraints, and any such tariff move is likely to be legally and economically contested.

I Think I Can Explain Trump's Theory of Trade

Bet On It • 322 implied HN points • 10 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. He thinks foreigners buying U.S. goods and assets will send piles of dollars into the U.S., which he expects will boost sales and jobs, and he treats foreign investment as reducing the trade deficit.
  2. This is basically old-fashioned ‘beggar-thy-neighbor’ Keynesian thinking — using trade to steal demand from other countries — but it’s a crude, inflationary, and diplomatically costly way to boost demand compared with monetary policy, especially near full employment.
  3. Economists disagree: the U.S. doesn’t need to ‘earn back’ dollars because it issues the global currency, so trade deficits and foreign investment don’t imply the problem he imagines, and trade policy is a poor tool for macro stabilization.

Monthly Roundup #39: February 2026

Don't Worry About the Vase • 2553 implied HN points • 18 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Large language models are probabilistic tools, not obedient machines, so using them for military tasks requires real-world simulations, drills, and careful testing; branding a key supplier as a ‘supply chain risk’ would do more harm than good.
  2. Government overreach and secrecy are serious problems — extrajudicial violence, evidence suppression, weakening due process, and expanding surveillance and speech criminalization all threaten basic civil rights.
  3. Bad incentives and protectionist policies (like the Jones Act, poorly designed taxes, weak fraud controls, and perverse sports or market rules) produce high costs and dysfunctional outcomes and need clearer, smarter reform.

Chartbook 429 From transition to rupture: The evolution of Carney-thought 2019-2026.

Chartbook • 4606 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Trade policy
  1. The world is in a rupture, not a transition — the old rules-based order is weakening as great powers use economic integration as coercion, so middle powers can no longer rely on past protections.
  2. Middle powers should adopt value-based realism: combine principled commitments with pragmatic action by building domestic strength, diversifying partners, and forming issue-by-issue coalitions instead of appeasing a single hegemon.
  3. The global financial system is structurally risky because it remains dollar-centered, so medium- and long-term reforms are needed — better global financial safety nets, cross-border surveillance and macroprudential tools, and a move toward a more multipolar reserve system possibly enabled by new technologies.

The core misconception that is driving American AI policy

Marcus on AI • 11817 implied HN points • 13 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The idea that generative AI is a winner-take-all race between the US and China is false; both countries will develop and serve similar AI products and neither will totally dominate.
  2. Companies in both places follow the same playbook, so technical leads will be brief and open-source sharing keeps long-term advantage from settling with one side.
  3. Pouring huge resources into an all-out AI race is risky; the real advantage may go to whoever avoids overextending, especially if large models prove temporary or are replaced by more efficient approaches.

BRICS enables Russia to displace US farmers

Glenn’s Substack • 1718 implied HN points • 02 Sep 24
🌍 World Politics Trade policy
  1. Russia and China are building a new trade route for grain. This helps Russia sell more food to China, taking market share away from US farmers.
  2. The BRICS nations are creating a new system that makes the US dollar less important in trade. This means countries can trade more freely without US influence.
  3. US farmers are struggling to get the information they need about global markets. Without this info, they can't make good decisions about what crops to plant.

Top Links 1025 Late German Government spending. The Phoebus cartel. The pivot to that Asia has failed.

Chartbook • 472 implied HN points • 26 Feb 26
🌐 International Trade policy
  1. The German government has only now begun the large spending surge it promised in spring 2025, despite earlier talk about it.
  2. The Phoebus cartel is a featured subject, highlighting historical corporate collusion that deliberately shortened product lifespans.
  3. The pivot to Asia is judged to have failed, signaling a major reassessment of policy and strategy toward the region.

Trump’s Tariffs Are Down—but Not Out

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 867 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The Supreme Court struck down the president’s broad country-by-country reciprocal tariffs, and the president quickly moved to impose new tariffs under a different legal authority.
  2. Not all tariffs were affected by the ruling — industry-specific tariffs remain in place, so parts of the trade policy survive.
  3. The justices were sharply divided, with different blocs offering different legal reasons and a strong dissent, leaving the legal question unsettled and open to future challenges.

CROSSPOST: JOSH MARSHALL: Don’t Be Fooled By the Corrupt Court’s Tariff Decision

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 576 implied HN points • 21 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The Supreme Court’s conservative majority is corrupt and acts out of partisan self-interest rather than consistently applying clear legal principles.
  2. Undoing Trump’s tariffs isn’t a vindication — the tariffs were transparently illegal but were allowed to remain in effect for almost a year, causing massive economic harm because the Court delayed and stayed relief.
  3. The Court’s passivity and willingness to enable executive overreach show the constitutional system is failing and demand thorough reform to protect the republic.

Turnabout Is Fair Play

Doomberg • 6597 implied HN points • 29 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Rare earth elements, especially neodymium, are crucial for the electric vehicle and wind energy industries. These materials are used in high-performance magnets that power modern technologies.
  2. China currently has a strong grip on the global supply of rare earths, using this leverage in its economic dealings. This situation highlights the irony of China’s reliance on coal even as it promotes green energy.
  3. The US is making significant investments to reduce its dependency on China for rare earths. There’s potential for the US to utilize its coal resources to help close the gap in rare earth production.

Trump Loses At SCOTUS on Tariffs

Points And Figures • 666 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The Supreme Court limited the president’s ability to impose tariffs unilaterally, so future tariffs will generally need Congressional approval even though tariffs themselves are not banned.
  2. Economists warn tariffs hurt free markets and can be damaging, but some argue tariffs can be an effective negotiating tool that pressures foreign actors; they also risk being hard to remove and can strain allies.
  3. A pro-market alternative is aggressive deregulation and fiscally conservative state leadership, and downballot races matter because state officials shape tax, regulatory, and investment policies.

EMERGENCY POD: SCOTUS Slashes Tariffs!

ChinaTalk • 296 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs, meaning many tariffs imposed under that law are likely illegal and could trigger mass refund lawsuits and a substantial hit to federal receipts.
  2. The administration can and likely will try to recreate tariffs under other authorities — for example a temporary 10% under Section 122 or country-specific measures under Section 301 — but those routes are more constrained, slower, and invite country-by-country litigation.
  3. Global partners are unlikely to walk away from negotiated deals despite the ruling, Canada faces particular exposure, and small businesses (plus entrenched Chinese supply chains for things like toys) played a crucial role in challenging the tariffs and expose how hard it is to shift manufacturing quickly.

The Corrupt & Craven Supreme Court Has a Tariff Opinion This AM!

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 369 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The three dissents mainly defend the idea that it's acceptable when a Republican president takes these powers, showing partisan and authoritarian commitments rather than neutral legal reasoning.
  2. The court's center (Roberts, Barrett, Gorsuch) was corrupt or craven in giving a Republican president a full year to use emergency tariff powers, which let him create facts on the ground and deter businesses from resisting.
  3. Allowing an "emergency" plus "unreviewable" tariff authority is structurally dangerous: it weakens property rights, risks long‑term economic harm, and the opinions signal shifts on the Major Questions Doctrine and on treating foreign trade as a presidential privilege.

The Week the Floor Shifted

Anima Mundi • 267 implied HN points • 22 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Trade policy
  1. The old postwar security architecture is fraying: the New START treaty lapsed and American guarantees to Europe are being redefined, pushing Europe to rearm and raising nuclear and military risks.
  2. Several crises are converging — a possible US strike on Iran, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and China’s strategic positioning — which together increase global instability and encourage arms races and opportunistic aggression.
  3. Trust in institutions and assumptions is weakening — courts, executive rules, trade policy, and techno-optimism around AI are being treated as malleable, ending a ‘deferred’ way of managing security and the future and forcing hard choices about who pays and what gets sacrificed.

How It’s Done

Doomberg • 15215 implied HN points • 16 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The U.S. is recognizing its competition with China over rare earth metals, which are essential for many industries and military needs. They realize they need to act to secure resources that China currently controls.
  2. China has been able to dominate the rare earth market by ignoring environmental regulations, allowing it to produce materials cheaper than countries with stricter rules. This makes it hard for others to compete.
  3. To reduce dependence on China, the U.S. is now investing in domestic production of rare earth metals. This includes the Pentagon buying a significant stake in an American mining company to help build local processing facilities.

Manufacturing is a war now

Noahpinion • 45765 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Manufacturing is becoming a major struggle between countries, especially between democracies and China. If a conflict arises, it could lead to serious consequences for those not producing enough weapons.
  2. China is rapidly increasing its production capabilities across various industries, including military manufacturing. As a result, other countries are facing challenges in competing against China.
  3. Both major political parties in the U.S. are not fully addressing the manufacturing threat from China. A more balanced strategy involving tariffs, industrial policies, and collaboration with allies is needed to tackle this issue.

Why tariffs haven't raised inflation much (yet)

Noahpinion • 14412 implied HN points • 11 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Tariffs have been raised significantly, but they haven't yet affected prices in a noticeable way. This could mean that people won't feel the impact right away.
  2. Investors seem calm about the new tariff announcements, possibly believing they will be rolled back or stopped by the courts. This suggests they don't see immediate dangers to the economy.
  3. Despite higher tariffs, actual inflation rates remain low, which raises questions about the predicted effects of these tariffs on consumer prices. People might not be paying more for goods as expected.

Chartbook 420 Is "decline" really Europe's problem. Or is Europe the more agreeable downleg of a K-shaped OECD?

Chartbook • 2074 implied HN points • 21 Dec 25
💼 Business Trade policy
  1. Whether Europe is "in decline" depends on the data source: some measures show European output per hour matching or exceeding the US, while OECD/AMECO data point to a real gap.
  2. The productivity difference is mainly driven by a small set of US superstar tech firms and higher investment per worker, while Europe’s shorter hours and social tradeoffs make its economy look different rather than simply worse.
  3. Recent shocks (COVID and the Ukraine war) widened the gap, but the pattern reads more like a K-shaped divergence—a strong tech-led upleg in the US and a broader downleg for Europe and much of the rest—so 'decline' may be an overstated present diagnosis and a conditional future risk.

Top Links 999 Mississippi rice in trouble. The enshittification of American power. PCF HQ & the making of the Indian constitution.

Chartbook • 615 implied HN points • 31 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Trade policy
  1. Mississippi and other American rice farmers are in serious trouble, with crop losses and economic strain threatening rural livelihoods. This could have wider impacts on food supply and local economies.
  2. U.S. power is undergoing an 'enshittification' where its effectiveness and legitimacy are eroding because of internal dysfunction and poor policy choices. That weakening makes American global influence less reliable.
  3. The PCF headquarters played a significant role in the making of the Indian constitution, showing how political organizations shaped the founding legal framework. Understanding that role helps explain key constitutional choices.

Shiri’s Police Shooting

Handwaving Freakoutery • 1290 implied HN points • 08 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The Minneapolis ICE shooting is deeply polarizing because the same video can be read multiple ways; it looks like the officer fired additional close‑range shots after he was out of the car’s path, while the protester’s attempt to use her vehicle against officers was reckless.
  2. A rapid expansion of ICE put many poorly trained, aggressive enforcement officers into the field, and sending them to Minneapolis for political reasons increased the chance of violent confrontation.
  3. Long-term economic policies like free trade and offshoring hollowed out Rust Belt jobs and shifted political coalitions, and inconsistent political approaches to immigration helped produce the protests and enforcement clashes we see today.

Selling H200s to China Is Unwise and Unpopular

Don't Worry About the Vase • 2553 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Selling Nvidia H200 chips to China would hand China a big, immediate compute advantage and weaken America’s lead in AI, which is a core national security concern.
  2. The H200 is much more powerful than previous exportable chips and China won’t make rivals for years, so large exports would let Chinese labs train frontier models and build cheaper data centers — and every chip sold to China is one fewer for U.S. users.
  3. The move is broadly unpopular with experts and lawmakers, may be limited or reversed, and probably delivers little lasting benefit to the U.S. or Nvidia beyond short-term revenue.

China's Rare Earths Chokehold: A Primer

ChinaTalk • 1171 implied HN points • 08 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Trade policy
  1. China now treats its rare earth dominance as a geopolitical lever and is likely to repeat export controls to extract concessions until U.S. dependence is meaningfully reduced.
  2. Economically viable rare earth deposits are scarce and global production is concentrated in just a few mines, so supply can’t be easily or quickly replaced.
  3. Heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium are both geologically rare and overwhelmingly controlled by China, so fixing the vulnerability will take focused, sustained investment and effort rather than broad, diffuse programs.

China Caught

Diane Francis • 1218 implied HN points • 01 Aug 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. China has been cheating in trade by stealing ideas and lying about its deals. This has been hurting businesses and countries that rely on China.
  2. NATO has accused China of supporting Russia by giving them supplies, even after China promised not to. This shows that China can't be trusted in international agreements.
  3. China is also involved in the drug trade, providing materials to Mexican cartels. Despite their denials, evidence shows they continue to help with drug problems.

The End of Pax Americana

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 26 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Trade policy
  1. The United States is shifting toward protectionism, using new legal routes to impose broad tariffs that act like heavy taxes and raise prices for American households.
  2. Tariffs can’t revive obsolete industries; they mostly transfer wealth to protected firms, reduce downstream jobs, and hit low- and middle-income families hardest by raising costs and cutting real wages.
  3. Other countries are deepening their own trade ties and the dollar's dominance is waning, so America's global economic leadership is slipping; reversing this trend will require Congress to reclaim trade authority and a return to open trade policies.

Top Links 994 Tesla's European shock. Dutch neoliberalism. Enigma & the dilemma of superior intelligence.

Chartbook • 572 implied HN points • 26 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Trade policy
  1. Tesla's European shock: Tesla's actions are producing a major shock to Europe’s auto market and policy landscape.
  2. Dutch neoliberalism: The newsletter highlights how neoliberal policies in the Netherlands shape politics, the economy, and social life.
  3. Enigma & the dilemma of superior intelligence: It explores the puzzle of superior intelligence and the dilemmas it creates, including ethical, governance, and strategic challenges.

Top Links 988 How Trump is victimizing America's petty bourgeoisie. The Sino-US investment reversal & Post-Russia.

Chartbook • 615 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Trade policy
  1. Trump’s actions and rhetoric are hurting small business owners and the petty bourgeoisie, weakening their economic stability and social standing.
  2. Investment between the US and China is reversing, pointing toward decoupling and big changes in cross-border capital flows.
  3. The world is entering a post‑Russia phase that is reshaping geopolitics and markets, forcing countries to rethink alliances and economic ties.

The Economy Can Survive Tariffs, Not Autocracy

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 176 implied HN points • 22 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. A court decision curtailed a president's tariff powers, showing the judiciary can check executive overreach and help protect the balance of power.
  2. Tariffs have distorted markets but so far haven’t wrecked the economy, and investors were calm because there are other, slower routes to raise tariffs that can produce similar effects.
  3. The larger danger is unchecked presidential power and a drift toward autocracy, which could damage democratic institutions and the economy more than tariffs alone.

Richard Hanania: Why I Changed My Mind. And Why You Should Too.

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 329 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Regretting a past vote and admitting that regret publicly can be uncomfortable, but it’s an important act of accountability.
  2. Specific decisions—like appointing a high-profile vaccine skeptic to a top public health post and announcing aggressive tariffs—made clear earlier support was mistaken and had real, harmful consequences, including market turmoil.
  3. Being willing to change your mind when new evidence appears and explaining why you changed it is valuable and worth encouraging.

Tariffs as Taxes

David Friedman’s Substack • 206 implied HN points • 21 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. A tariff is just another tax and can make a country poorer by creating an excess burden — the loss from changes in production and consumption beyond the revenue raised. How costly a tax is per dollar raised depends on how much it changes behavior, which is driven by supply and demand elasticities.
  2. Protective tariffs that block imports to shield domestic industries are especially inefficient because they often stop trade, produce deadweight loss, and generate little revenue while benefiting specific political interests. Such tariffs trade overall economic welfare for concentrated political support.
  3. Many of the recent tariffs were country-targeted and used as a political weapon rather than purely as revenue measures, which tends to make them worse economically than alternative taxes. Legal limits now constrain that weaponization, though some ability to use tariffs for leverage remains.

When are tariffs good?

Noahpinion • 19353 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Tariffs can help protect national security by ensuring that the U.S. maintains essential manufacturing capabilities for military needs. Having domestic industries ready to switch to military production is crucial in case of conflicts.
  2. Targeted tariffs can support 'national champions,' which are big domestic companies that can thrive by limiting foreign competition. This helps the country's economy by allowing its firms to earn more profit and create jobs.
  3. The infant industry argument suggests that tariffs can help new industries grow by shielding them from foreign competition until they are strong enough to stand on their own. However, broad tariffs should be carefully considered as they might not apply well to every situation.

How Will the Trump Tariffs Affect Construction?

Construction Physics • 17955 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Tariffs on imports can greatly impact construction costs. For example, the recent 25% tariffs on materials from Canada and Mexico might lead to higher prices for building projects.
  2. A significant part of construction relies on imports, especially metals and interior components. In 2022, nearly $469 billion in construction-related imports were recorded in the U.S.
  3. Most construction materials come from various countries around the world. No single country dominates the market, showing how global trade supports the construction industry.

Trump Can’t Win Greenland Without Losing Europe

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 607 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
🌐 International Trade policy
  1. The European right is winning by promising sovereignty and dignity, and aggressive U.S. moves over Greenland would undercut those political messages.
  2. Using tariffs to pressure countries into selling Greenland is a petulant, coercive tactic that risks alienating conservative allies in Europe.
  3. Even if Greenland is strategically important, trying to seize it through extortion will likely damage U.S.–European relations and turn any gain into a costly loss.

Chartbook 462 One Belt One Road 2.0. China's new paradigm?

Chartbook • 1630 implied HN points • 16 Nov 25
🌍 World Politics Trade policy
  1. China's influence in the global economy is growing quickly, especially through its Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to strengthen its trade relationships worldwide. This rapid expansion has also led to a need for reevaluation given the shifts in lending behavior and debt levels.
  2. After a slowdown and debt issues, China is seeing a revival in its Belt and Road investments, particularly in green manufacturing. This shift indicates a new phase of commitment to sustainable growth while managing past debts and current financial dynamics.
  3. The nature of China’s lending has changed, with more repayment coming from developing countries than new loans being offered. This creates a complex balance where poorer nations may feel pressured due to their debt to China while also needing the benefits of investment and infrastructure.

Upcoming | Two Sessions Policy Briefing on March 17

Pekingnology • 49 implied HN points • 10 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Trade policy
  1. The seminar will decode China’s 2026 Two Sessions, focusing on the Government Work Report and the 15th Five-Year Plan to clarify Beijing’s policy priorities and strategic direction.
  2. It’s an English-language lunch briefing in Beijing on March 17 aimed at multinational executives, international organization representatives, and diplomats, and it requires paid registration.
  3. A panel of former officials and trade experts will give a forward-looking assessment of macro targets, industrial upgrading, technological innovation, high‑standard opening-up, and what these developments mean for business and diplomacy.

Party Time! Jon Czin on US-China 2025 and 2026

ChinaTalk • 326 implied HN points • 27 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Trade policy
  1. The apparent calm in US-China relations is a deliberate lull: China has prepared responses and is using measured escalations like rare-earth export controls to gain leverage, especially timed around the US midterms.
  2. US policy is inconsistent and personality-driven: frequent personnel churn and a president who acts as his own China desk produce seesaws between confrontation and mollification, leaving allies undercut and pushing a sector-by-sector "whack-a-mole" approach instead of a coherent strategy.
  3. The real stakes are long-term and allied: flashy moves in places like Venezuela or Iran won't change Beijing's calculus, so the US needs to double down on alliances (especially Japan) and strategy, because continued risky gambles that have worked so far could eventually backfire.