The hottest Trade policy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics
David Friedman’s Substack 287 implied HN points 04 Mar 25
  1. The Trump administration has mixed reviews, with some seeing it as a disaster and others viewing it as a necessary change towards less government control and more individual choices.
  2. Tariffs and immigration policies under Trump are seen as not beneficial, especially since tariffs may harm trade and the economy.
  3. Foreign policy is a huge concern, especially with Trump's approach of potentially reducing support for Ukraine and NATO, which could risk European stability.
Apricitas Economics 91 implied HN points 25 Feb 25
  1. Trump has announced new tariffs on imports from key trading partners, including a 25% tax on all goods from Canada and Mexico, and 10% from China. This could raise prices for everyday items in the U.S.
  2. These tariffs can hurt not only the U.S. economy by increasing costs and causing uncertainty but also negatively impact Canada and Mexico, whose economies rely heavily on trade with the U.S.
  3. The administration's approach seems rushed and chaotic, with no clear plans on how to implement these tariffs effectively, which might lead to further complications and delays.
Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality 269 implied HN points 18 Jun 25
  1. Tariffs can harm regular American families by increasing prices and creating uncertainty. They may seem like a good idea to support local industries, but they often backfire.
  2. The U.S. is becoming more isolated in global trade because of unpredictable policies. Other countries will easily find new trade partners, leaving the U.S. at a disadvantage.
  3. The chaos caused by tariffs leads to significant financial burdens on lower-income households. The overall economic impact will hurt many people, especially those with less money.
Interconnected 709 implied HN points 08 Jun 25
  1. The US and China are working on a tech agreement that could change the way they trade technology and materials. This could lead to better cooperation on key tech issues like semiconductors and rare earth materials.
  2. China has advantages in supplying critical materials, while the US holds the edge in semiconductor technologies. Both sides will have to negotiate carefully to balance their needs and strengths.
  3. Access to the consumer tech market is crucial for both countries. A deal involving TikTok might help set guidelines for how Chinese companies can operate in the US, which could shape future technology negotiations between the two nations.
Noahpinion 45765 implied HN points 04 Dec 24
  1. Manufacturing is becoming a major struggle between countries, especially between democracies and China. If a conflict arises, it could lead to serious consequences for those not producing enough weapons.
  2. China is rapidly increasing its production capabilities across various industries, including military manufacturing. As a result, other countries are facing challenges in competing against China.
  3. Both major political parties in the U.S. are not fully addressing the manufacturing threat from China. A more balanced strategy involving tariffs, industrial policies, and collaboration with allies is needed to tackle this issue.
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Construction Physics 17955 implied HN points 12 Feb 25
  1. Tariffs on imports can greatly impact construction costs. For example, the recent 25% tariffs on materials from Canada and Mexico might lead to higher prices for building projects.
  2. A significant part of construction relies on imports, especially metals and interior components. In 2022, nearly $469 billion in construction-related imports were recorded in the U.S.
  3. Most construction materials come from various countries around the world. No single country dominates the market, showing how global trade supports the construction industry.
Silver Bulletin 978 implied HN points 04 Feb 25
  1. Trump's tariff threats focus on Canada and Mexico, two neighbors that depend heavily on the U.S. for trade. This puts the U.S. in a position of power, even if such threats can backfire.
  2. The economics suggest that while tariffs might hurt all involved, Canada and Mexico would suffer significantly more than the U.S. This creates a dangerous imbalance in trade negotiations.
  3. Trump's approach may work as a short-term tactic, but it risks future relations with Canada and Mexico, leading to resentment and potential retaliation if pressured too much.
Dr. Pippa's Pen & Podcast 66 implied HN points 24 Feb 25
  1. Dr. Harald Malmgren was a significant figure, advising many U.S. presidents and global leaders throughout his career. His insights shaped policy during critical historical moments, including the Cuban Missile Crisis.
  2. He had a deep connection with his daughter, who spent meaningful time with him in his later years. Their relationship evolved, allowing them to reconnect and share important experiences right before his passing.
  3. As she navigates her grief, his daughter plans to pause her writing and embark on a spiritual pilgrimage, reflecting their discussions on the importance of spiritual growth as technology advances.
Glenn’s Substack 1718 implied HN points 02 Sep 24
  1. Russia and China are building a new trade route for grain. This helps Russia sell more food to China, taking market share away from US farmers.
  2. The BRICS nations are creating a new system that makes the US dollar less important in trade. This means countries can trade more freely without US influence.
  3. US farmers are struggling to get the information they need about global markets. Without this info, they can't make good decisions about what crops to plant.
Noahpinion 19353 implied HN points 06 Feb 25
  1. Tariffs can help protect national security by ensuring that the U.S. maintains essential manufacturing capabilities for military needs. Having domestic industries ready to switch to military production is crucial in case of conflicts.
  2. Targeted tariffs can support 'national champions,' which are big domestic companies that can thrive by limiting foreign competition. This helps the country's economy by allowing its firms to earn more profit and create jobs.
  3. The infant industry argument suggests that tariffs can help new industries grow by shielding them from foreign competition until they are strong enough to stand on their own. However, broad tariffs should be carefully considered as they might not apply well to every situation.
Chartbook 300 implied HN points 08 Jun 25
  1. Windsor, Ontario is heavily impacted by ongoing trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Canada. This makes it a key spot to watch in discussions about trade wars.
  2. The protection of the naira, Nigeria's currency, highlights struggles for economic stability in the region. Keeping the currency stable is important for the country's economy.
  3. Land-grabbing in the Guinea Savannah Zone raises concerns about land rights and agriculture. It's essential to address these issues to protect local communities and their resources.
Faster, Please! 913 implied HN points 03 Feb 25
  1. Trade policy changes can create a lot of uncertainty in the economy. Recently announced tariffs are causing confusion among markets and businesses.
  2. The impact of these tariffs could disrupt established supply chains and lead to higher costs, which might hurt businesses more than expected.
  3. While AI is also a source of uncertainty, current trade issues are having a more immediate and significant effect on the economy right now.
David Friedman’s Substack 260 implied HN points 14 Feb 25
  1. Retaliatory tariffs are taxes on imports that match the tariffs a country imposes on exports. They aim to make both countries reconsider their tariff policies.
  2. If one country sets high tariffs, the other may respond with corresponding tariffs, which might lead to both countries lowering their tariffs for mutual benefit.
  3. The idea of reciprocal tariffs can help simplify trade negotiations, but it can also create loopholes where countries find ways to keep protections in place without directly using tariffs.
Chartbook 500 implied HN points 26 May 25
  1. Different U.S. states have their own foreign trade goals that can impact the economy. It's important to understand how each state's agenda plays a part in the bigger picture.
  2. Namibia is working towards being more environmentally friendly, showing that even developing nations can have green ambitions. This highlights the global push for sustainability.
  3. There are various interesting cultural pieces out there, including discussions about sex, drugs, and pop culture elements like zombies. These topics can reflect different aspects of society and what's trending.
David Friedman’s Substack 170 implied HN points 17 Feb 25
  1. Tariffs can raise revenue for a country but may not be the best tax choice compared to broader taxes. A high tariff rate would require taxing a major portion of imports, which isn’t practical.
  2. Bigotry can stem from people's rigid mental models not matching reality. When someone or something doesn't fit cleanly into these models, it can create discomfort and irritation.
  3. Political polarization is increasing, and it might help if political parties were less sorted. Encouraging issues that don’t follow the typical left/right divide could lead to more cooperation between parties.
Noahpinion 16882 implied HN points 18 Nov 24
  1. Targeted tariffs focus on specific industries or products, helping to reduce dependence on foreign sources like China for critical goods, such as batteries.
  2. Broad tariffs can create problems by raising costs for American manufacturers, making them less competitive against foreign companies, which may worsen trade deficits.
  3. To effectively improve trade balances, policies should avoid broad tariffs and instead concentrate on targeted measures that do not negatively affect American industries.
Don't Worry About the Vase 3494 implied HN points 27 Nov 24
  1. The Jones Act, enacted in 1920, restricts shipping between U.S. ports to American-built and operated ships, but it has led to a decline in U.S. shipbuilding and maritime trade. After a century, the country ships very little between its own ports, resulting in higher prices for consumers.
  2. Repealing the Jones Act could significantly reduce shipping costs, increase trade, and boost the economy. It would create more jobs and provide essential supplies more efficiently during emergencies, which often cannot be met due to current shipping constraints.
  3. Opponents of the Jones Act argue that it protects a limited number of jobs at the expense of overall economic growth. They believe that allowing competition from foreign ships would enhance the maritime industry and lead to better outcomes for consumers and the economy as a whole.
Taylor Lorenz's Newsletter 3791 implied HN points 05 Feb 25
  1. Shein and Temu are facing tough times due to new U.S. tariffs that could significantly raise prices for consumers. Many packages from China are now being stopped by customs, making it harder for these companies to operate.
  2. Joe Rogan defended himself against accusations from Kamala Harris' campaign about not being honest regarding an interview. He claims that the campaign never committed to appearing on his show, while Trump was easy to book.
  3. Substack won a legal battle over free speech, allowing a journalist to keep reporting on sensitive issues without being censored. This supports the idea that independent journalism should be protected.
Diane Francis 1218 implied HN points 01 Aug 24
  1. China has been cheating in trade by stealing ideas and lying about its deals. This has been hurting businesses and countries that rely on China.
  2. NATO has accused China of supporting Russia by giving them supplies, even after China promised not to. This shows that China can't be trusted in international agreements.
  3. China is also involved in the drug trade, providing materials to Mexican cartels. Despite their denials, evidence shows they continue to help with drug problems.
SemiAnalysis 10102 implied HN points 28 Oct 24
  1. Chinese companies, particularly Huawei, are successfully finding loopholes to avoid U.S. export controls on advanced semiconductor technology. This allows them to enhance their domestic chip production capabilities.
  2. The current U.S. sanctions have not significantly harmed Western wafer fabrication equipment suppliers; in fact, these companies have been thriving during the period of restrictions.
  3. Future U.S. export controls need to be stricter and updated regularly to effectively combat the evasion strategies used by Chinese firms, ensuring that national security interests are maintained.
Material World 2899 implied HN points 02 Feb 25
  1. The US relies heavily on Canadian oil, with Canada providing around 61% of its oil imports. This shows that even though the US produces a lot of oil, it still needs oil from other countries like Canada.
  2. American refineries are designed to process heavy oil, which is mostly sourced from Canada. This creates a unique situation where even though the US is an oil producer, it still heavily imports due to refinery needs.
  3. If tariffs on Canadian oil increase, the US might have to look for heavy oil from countries like Venezuela or Russia, which could lead to more complicated geopolitical issues.
Global Inequality and More 3.0 3654 implied HN points 08 Jan 25
  1. Mainstream economists have stopped following the old rules of globalization, like free trade and open borders. This change is happening because many people are unhappy with how these rules have worked in their lives.
  2. Current economic actions, such as raising tariffs and trade blocks, go against the principles of globalization that were once strongly supported. Now, even respected institutions are shifting their views on these issues.
  3. There is no clear global economic framework anymore. Different countries are acting based on their own interests, leading to confusion and a lack of universal rules for trade and economy.
Breaking the News 2206 implied HN points 02 Feb 25
  1. Leadership requires addressing national interests clearly and passionately. Trudeau spoke strongly about the importance of Canada and the negative effects of trade wars.
  2. Effective communication is about explaining complex issues without being rude. Trudeau made sure his American audience understood the consequences of tariffs without sounding threatening.
  3. National pride can be expressed in a respectful way. Trudeau delivered a firm message about Canada’s values and partnerships while emphasizing that the country would stand up for itself.
The Honest Broker Newsletter 1668 implied HN points 05 Feb 25
  1. There is ongoing discussion about U.S. energy policy, with various viewpoints providing insights into how it could be improved. An analysis from Colorado highlights broader implications that can be relevant to other states too.
  2. The debate surrounding the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) continues, focusing on whether the president can dissolve or change it through executive order. This raises important questions about the agency's role and effectiveness.
  3. Concerns about protectionism and trade wars are being critically evaluated, showing that both major political parties are engaged in this issue. Recent tariff proposals also raise questions about their economic and fiscal impacts.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss 1604 implied HN points 03 Feb 25
  1. Trump is imposing high tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, which has sparked a strong response from these countries. Canada is retaliating with its own tariffs, indicating that this trade conflict could escalate quickly.
  2. RFK Jr. is gaining attention in politics, especially among a group called MAHA that aims to change the healthcare system. There are varying opinions about him, with some supporting his ideas and others critiquing them.
  3. A new conservative calendar featuring bikini models has been released, showing a trend among some on the right to embrace a more provocative image. However, its artistic quality is being questioned by critics.
Big Technology 2752 implied HN points 01 Nov 24
  1. Global trade is super important for tech companies like Apple and those in semiconductors. If trade gets disrupted, it could lead to higher prices and inflation.
  2. Donald Trump's potential election could lead to drastic changes in global trade, including high tariffs on imports. This could reshape the landscape for many tech businesses.
  3. With Trump's focus on tariffs, global trade issues might become the main concern for the tech industry instead of social media or other topics that dominated past elections.
Spilled Coffee 60 implied HN points 05 Feb 25
  1. Tariffs can cause prices to rise for consumers, leading to inflation. This means things might get more expensive for everyone.
  2. The ongoing tariffs can create uncertainty in the stock market and economy. Businesses are worried about how these changes could impact their profits.
  3. Monitoring tariffs is important for investors and business owners. They need to stay updated because tariffs affect many products and can cause market fluctuations.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss 1052 implied HN points 04 Feb 25
  1. Washington's political landscape is changing, and decisions can happen quickly, like pausing tariffs unexpectedly.
  2. There's a sense of adjusting expectations, especially for those used to previous norms before Trump.
  3. Independent journalism is vital to provide honest insights about these changes and the real world.
ChinaTalk 948 implied HN points 25 Jan 25
  1. DeepSeek's R1 model shows that AI competition is heating up between the U.S. and China. It's similar to OpenAI's model but developed quickly, closing the gap.
  2. The efficiency at which DeepSeek operates is driven by export controls, meaning limited access to advanced chips. More chips would better their AI capabilities.
  3. Open-sourcing AI models has its benefits, but governments need to be careful. They should ensure the technology is not misused while still allowing some level of open collaboration.
Chartbook 1473 implied HN points 02 Dec 24
  1. Trump's new trade strategy might lead to higher tariffs, which could raise prices for consumers. It’s planned to increase average tariffs from 2.6% to around 8% by 2026.
  2. Certain industries, especially car companies and food importers, could be hit hard by these tariffs. This could lead to increased car prices and food shortages.
  3. The success of Trump’s trade policy depends on balancing the interests of trade and public opinion. If people react negatively, it could limit how far he can go with these new tariffs.
Common Sense with Bari Weiss 746 implied HN points 02 Feb 25
  1. Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, causing concern for many. This decision appears sudden and lacks a clear reason.
  2. The tariff could disrupt the economy and long-standing trade agreements. It might lead to increased costs for consumers and harm relations with neighboring countries.
  3. While there's a limit on tariffs for Canadian energy imports to avoid spiking energy prices, the rules are inconsistent and confusing for trade with Mexico.
Gad’s Newsletter 23 implied HN points 10 Feb 25
  1. Tariffs can hurt both businesses and consumers by increasing costs, leading to higher prices for goods. Companies that depend on global supply chains may struggle to adapt to these changes.
  2. Supply chains are fragile and can get disrupted easily. When one part faces issues, it can affect the entire chain, leading to bigger economic problems.
  3. Flexibility in supply chains is important. Businesses need to have options for different suppliers and production routes to handle unexpected changes and avoid significant losses.
ChinaTalk 533 implied HN points 03 Feb 25
  1. US trade policy has evolved over 250 years, reflecting different political interests and economic conditions. This history shows that trade debates have always been intense and sometimes divisive.
  2. Tariffs serve three main purposes: to raise revenue, restrict imports to protect local jobs, and enable reciprocal trade agreements. Each of these has played a significant role in shaping the US trade landscape.
  3. Recent trade policies, especially under Trump, have likely created lasting changes in US-China relations. These changes may make it hard for future administrations to return to previous trade norms.
Chartbook 472 implied HN points 10 Feb 25
  1. Trump is pushing for tariffs on aluminium and steel imports, which could affect the US economy. It's important to know that the US relies a lot on imported aluminium.
  2. The eurdollar system is explained, which is key for understanding international finance. It plays a significant role in global trade and economics.
  3. North Korea is using aerial trash bombardment as a tactic, highlighting serious issues of conflict. This kind of action reflects the ongoing tensions in the region.
Chartbook 429 implied HN points 05 Feb 25
  1. Trump's trade policies are seen as unfairly taxing the US auto industry, impacting American workers.
  2. Palantir and similar companies represent a growing trend in tech that resembles a modern Mittelstand, focusing on niche markets.
  3. There are ethical and environmental concerns regarding Hershey's cocoa sourcing, reflecting larger global issues in trade and art during conflicts.
Contemplations on the Tree of Woe 1153 implied HN points 19 Oct 24
  1. Tariffs can help raise money for government services, especially for defense and border security. By applying a uniform tariff on imported goods, it aims to make the tax system fairer for everyone involved.
  2. Historically, high tariffs were essential for the growth of the U.S. economy and protecting local industries. Examples from the past show that many countries successfully used tariffs to develop their manufacturing sectors.
  3. While tariffs might increase the cost of living, they can also boost domestic production and potentially lead to higher wages. The idea is that by protecting local jobs, the overall economy can become stronger.
Faster, Please! 456 implied HN points 12 Oct 24
  1. Free trade is good for the economy because it helps increase productivity and wages. Even if it disrupts some jobs, the overall benefits are greater.
  2. Tech companies are starting to embrace nuclear energy to power their data centers. This move aims to cut carbon emissions and manage rising energy demands.
  3. Despite economic challenges, the American system has shown resilience. The economy has adapted and grown stronger after tough times like the financial crises.
Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality 422 implied HN points 06 Feb 25
  1. Brexit caused a lot of chaos and hurt the UK economy significantly, with estimates of GDP loss ranging from 4% to over 10%. This shows how disruptive trade politics can really be.
  2. Trump's international trade policies seem to create similar pointless disruptions, slightly lessening the U.S. economy's ties with its trading partners but not helping in the long run.
  3. There are questions about how the damage from Trump's trade policies compares to Brexit's impact, and it's important to analyze the economic integration and results for both the U.S. and UK.
I Might Be Wrong 17 implied HN points 04 Feb 25
  1. Recent tariffs between the US and Canada seemed pointless and were lifted without gaining anything significant. This shows how negotiations can sometimes yield very little.
  2. Trump's approach to tariffs might harm America's economic credibility in the long run. It's like he's playing a game but doesn't understand the rules properly.
  3. Congress can step in and clarify the rules about tariffs to prevent future chaos. They should take control to keep things stable and effective.