The hottest Trade policy Substack posts right now

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Top U.S. Politics Topics

My Views of the Trump Administration

David Friedman’s Substack • 287 implied HN points • 04 Mar 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Trade policy Immigration Political Philosophy
  1. The Trump administration has mixed reviews, with some seeing it as a disaster and others viewing it as a necessary change towards less government control and more individual choices.
  2. Tariffs and immigration policies under Trump are seen as not beneficial, especially since tariffs may harm trade and the economy.
  3. Foreign policy is a huge concern, especially with Trump's approach of potentially reducing support for Ukraine and NATO, which could risk European stability.

How Will the Trump Tariffs Affect Construction?

Construction Physics • 17955 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Tariffs Economic Impact Imports
  1. Tariffs on imports can greatly impact construction costs. For example, the recent 25% tariffs on materials from Canada and Mexico might lead to higher prices for building projects.
  2. A significant part of construction relies on imports, especially metals and interior components. In 2022, nearly $469 billion in construction-related imports were recorded in the U.S.
  3. Most construction materials come from various countries around the world. No single country dominates the market, showing how global trade supports the construction industry.

When are tariffs good?

Noahpinion • 19353 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Tariffs Economics National Security Manufacturing
  1. Tariffs can help protect national security by ensuring that the U.S. maintains essential manufacturing capabilities for military needs. Having domestic industries ready to switch to military production is crucial in case of conflicts.
  2. Targeted tariffs can support 'national champions,' which are big domestic companies that can thrive by limiting foreign competition. This helps the country's economy by allowing its firms to earn more profit and create jobs.
  3. The infant industry argument suggests that tariffs can help new industries grow by shielding them from foreign competition until they are strong enough to stand on their own. However, broad tariffs should be carefully considered as they might not apply well to every situation.

Present at the Destruction

The Cosmopolitan Globalist • 7 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Elections International relations Security Trade policy
  1. The U.S. has built a strong global order through NATO and free trade after World War II, which led to peace and prosperity. This system is now in jeopardy due to current policies that threaten these alliances.
  2. The recent political shifts in the U.S. are causing worries among European nations about their security, as there is a sense that they can no longer rely on American support. This fear has led Europe to rethink its defense strategies.
  3. A shift away from established democratic values and alliances can lead to chaos and potential conflicts, as abandoning cooperation only benefits adversaries like Russia and China.

What the Right Kind of Nationalism Sounds Like.

Breaking the News • 2206 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Leadership Nationalism Trade policy International relations
  1. Leadership requires addressing national interests clearly and passionately. Trudeau spoke strongly about the importance of Canada and the negative effects of trade wars.
  2. Effective communication is about explaining complex issues without being rude. Trudeau made sure his American audience understood the consequences of tariffs without sounding threatening.
  3. National pride can be expressed in a respectful way. Trudeau delivered a firm message about Canada’s values and partnerships while emphasizing that the country would stand up for itself.
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Manufacturing is a war now

Noahpinion • 45765 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Manufacturing Trade policy Defense Strategy International relations Economic Policy
  1. Manufacturing is becoming a major struggle between countries, especially between democracies and China. If a conflict arises, it could lead to serious consequences for those not producing enough weapons.
  2. China is rapidly increasing its production capabilities across various industries, including military manufacturing. As a result, other countries are facing challenges in competing against China.
  3. Both major political parties in the U.S. are not fully addressing the manufacturing threat from China. A more balanced strategy involving tariffs, industrial policies, and collaboration with allies is needed to tackle this issue.

Keeping Up

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 1668 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Energy Policy Trade policy Political institutions Science Policy International Aid
  1. There is ongoing discussion about U.S. energy policy, with various viewpoints providing insights into how it could be improved. An analysis from Colorado highlights broader implications that can be relevant to other states too.
  2. The debate surrounding the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) continues, focusing on whether the president can dissolve or change it through executive order. This raises important questions about the agency's role and effectiveness.
  3. Concerns about protectionism and trade wars are being critically evaluated, showing that both major political parties are engaged in this issue. Recent tariff proposals also raise questions about their economic and fiscal impacts.

Top Links 645 Trump's assault on the North American division of labour continued. How the eurdollar system works. North Korea's aerial trash bombardment & FDR on the Arsenal of Democracy.

Chartbook • 472 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Tariffs Economics International relations Political Analysis
  1. Trump is pushing for tariffs on aluminium and steel imports, which could affect the US economy. It's important to know that the US relies a lot on imported aluminium.
  2. The eurdollar system is explained, which is key for understanding international finance. It plays a significant role in global trade and economics.
  3. North Korea is using aerial trash bombardment as a tactic, highlighting serious issues of conflict. This kind of action reflects the ongoing tensions in the region.

Trump’s Trade War Is On. Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1604 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Tariffs Political strategy Elections International relations
  1. Trump is imposing high tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, which has sparked a strong response from these countries. Canada is retaliating with its own tariffs, indicating that this trade conflict could escalate quickly.
  2. RFK Jr. is gaining attention in politics, especially among a group called MAHA that aims to change the healthcare system. There are varying opinions about him, with some supporting his ideas and others critiquing them.
  3. A new conservative calendar featuring bikini models has been released, showing a trend among some on the right to embrace a more provocative image. However, its artistic quality is being questioned by critics.

Trump's 2nd Trade War Begins

Apricitas Economics • 91 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Tariffs Economics International relations Political strategy
  1. Trump has announced new tariffs on imports from key trading partners, including a 25% tax on all goods from Canada and Mexico, and 10% from China. This could raise prices for everyday items in the U.S.
  2. These tariffs can hurt not only the U.S. economy by increasing costs and causing uncertainty but also negatively impact Canada and Mexico, whose economies rely heavily on trade with the U.S.
  3. The administration's approach seems rushed and chaotic, with no clear plans on how to implement these tariffs effectively, which might lead to further complications and delays.

How the mainstream abandoned universal economic principles

Global Inequality and More 3.0 • 3654 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Neoliberalism Globalization Inequality Trade policy
  1. Mainstream economists have stopped following the old rules of globalization, like free trade and open borders. This change is happening because many people are unhappy with how these rules have worked in their lives.
  2. Current economic actions, such as raising tariffs and trade blocks, go against the principles of globalization that were once strongly supported. Now, even respected institutions are shifting their views on these issues.
  3. There is no clear global economic framework anymore. Different countries are acting based on their own interests, leading to confusion and a lack of universal rules for trade and economy.

So Much for That Tariff Shock

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1052 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Tariffs Bureaucracy International relations Political Commentary
  1. Washington's political landscape is changing, and decisions can happen quickly, like pausing tariffs unexpectedly.
  2. There's a sense of adjusting expectations, especially for those used to previous norms before Trump.
  3. Independent journalism is vital to provide honest insights about these changes and the real world.

Why targeted tariffs are more effective than broad tariffs

Noahpinion • 16882 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Economic Policy Tariffs Supply Chains International relations
  1. Targeted tariffs focus on specific industries or products, helping to reduce dependence on foreign sources like China for critical goods, such as batteries.
  2. Broad tariffs can create problems by raising costs for American manufacturers, making them less competitive against foreign companies, which may worsen trade deficits.
  3. To effectively improve trade balances, policies should avoid broad tariffs and instead concentrate on targeted measures that do not negatively affect American industries.

Top Links 640 Trump's taxes on blue-collar America. Palantir, Silicon Valley Mittelstand. Hershey's cocoa risk & art at war.

Chartbook • 429 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Taxation Economic issues Political Analysis Government
  1. Trump's trade policies are seen as unfairly taxing the US auto industry, impacting American workers.
  2. Palantir and similar companies represent a growing trend in tech that resembles a modern Mittelstand, focusing on niche markets.
  3. There are ethical and environmental concerns regarding Hershey's cocoa sourcing, reflecting larger global issues in trade and art during conflicts.

Trade: How Free is Too Free?

ChinaTalk • 533 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Economic History Federal Government International relations
  1. US trade policy has evolved over 250 years, reflecting different political interests and economic conditions. This history shows that trade debates have always been intense and sometimes divisive.
  2. Tariffs serve three main purposes: to raise revenue, restrict imports to protect local jobs, and enable reciprocal trade agreements. Each of these has played a significant role in shaping the US trade landscape.
  3. Recent trade policies, especially under Trump, have likely created lasting changes in US-China relations. These changes may make it hard for future administrations to return to previous trade norms.

The game theory of Trump's tariff threats

Silver Bulletin • 978 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Game Theory Economics Diplomacy Political strategy
  1. Trump's tariff threats focus on Canada and Mexico, two neighbors that depend heavily on the U.S. for trade. This puts the U.S. in a position of power, even if such threats can backfire.
  2. The economics suggest that while tariffs might hurt all involved, Canada and Mexico would suffer significantly more than the U.S. This creates a dangerous imbalance in trade negotiations.
  3. Trump's approach may work as a short-term tactic, but it risks future relations with Canada and Mexico, leading to resentment and potential retaliation if pressured too much.

DeepSeek and the Future of AI Competition with Miles Brundage

ChinaTalk • 948 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Modeling Competition Trade policy Innovation
  1. DeepSeek's R1 model shows that AI competition is heating up between the U.S. and China. It's similar to OpenAI's model but developed quickly, closing the gap.
  2. The efficiency at which DeepSeek operates is driven by export controls, meaning limited access to advanced chips. More chips would better their AI capabilities.
  3. Open-sourcing AI models has its benefits, but governments need to be careful. They should ensure the technology is not misused while still allowing some level of open collaboration.

Why Did Trump Just Start a Trade War with Our Neighbors?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 746 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Tariffs Economic Impact Executive Power International relations
  1. Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, causing concern for many. This decision appears sudden and lacks a clear reason.
  2. The tariff could disrupt the economy and long-standing trade agreements. It might lead to increased costs for consumers and harm relations with neighboring countries.
  3. While there's a limit on tariffs for Canadian energy imports to avoid spiking energy prices, the rules are inconsistent and confusing for trade with Mexico.

The Hon. Amb. Dr. Harald Malmgren Passed....

Dr. Pippa's Pen & Podcast • 66 implied HN points • 24 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political History Elections Trade policy International relations
  1. Dr. Harald Malmgren was a significant figure, advising many U.S. presidents and global leaders throughout his career. His insights shaped policy during critical historical moments, including the Cuban Missile Crisis.
  2. He had a deep connection with his daughter, who spent meaningful time with him in his later years. Their relationship evolved, allowing them to reconnect and share important experiences right before his passing.
  3. As she navigates her grief, his daughter plans to pause her writing and embark on a spiritual pilgrimage, reflecting their discussions on the importance of spiritual growth as technology advances.

BRICS enables Russia to displace US farmers

Glenn’s Substack • 1718 implied HN points • 02 Sep 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Global Economy Trade policy Geopolitics
  1. Russia and China are building a new trade route for grain. This helps Russia sell more food to China, taking market share away from US farmers.
  2. The BRICS nations are creating a new system that makes the US dollar less important in trade. This means countries can trade more freely without US influence.
  3. US farmers are struggling to get the information they need about global markets. Without this info, they can't make good decisions about what crops to plant.

NOTE TO SELF: TrumpChaos in a BREXIT Mirror

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 422 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Economic Impact Brexit Globalization
  1. Brexit caused a lot of chaos and hurt the UK economy significantly, with estimates of GDP loss ranging from 4% to over 10%. This shows how disruptive trade politics can really be.
  2. Trump's international trade policies seem to create similar pointless disruptions, slightly lessening the U.S. economy's ties with its trading partners but not helping in the long run.
  3. There are questions about how the damage from Trump's trade policies compares to Brexit's impact, and it's important to analyze the economic integration and results for both the U.S. and UK.

🌐✨ Trade and AI uncertainty are not the same

Faster, Please! • 913 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Tariffs Supply Chains Market Impact
  1. Trade policy changes can create a lot of uncertainty in the economy. Recently announced tariffs are causing confusion among markets and businesses.
  2. The impact of these tariffs could disrupt established supply chains and lead to higher costs, which might hurt businesses more than expected.
  3. While AI is also a source of uncertainty, current trade issues are having a more immediate and significant effect on the economy right now.

Retaliatory Tariffs

David Friedman’s Substack • 260 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Tariffs Economic Theory Political strategy International relations
  1. Retaliatory tariffs are taxes on imports that match the tariffs a country imposes on exports. They aim to make both countries reconsider their tariff policies.
  2. If one country sets high tariffs, the other may respond with corresponding tariffs, which might lead to both countries lowering their tariffs for mutual benefit.
  3. The idea of reciprocal tariffs can help simplify trade negotiations, but it can also create loopholes where countries find ways to keep protections in place without directly using tariffs.

More Odds and Ends

David Friedman’s Substack • 170 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Economics Political polarization Social Issues
  1. Tariffs can raise revenue for a country but may not be the best tax choice compared to broader taxes. A high tariff rate would require taxing a major portion of imports, which isn’t practical.
  2. Bigotry can stem from people's rigid mental models not matching reality. When someone or something doesn't fit cleanly into these models, it can create discomfort and irritation.
  3. Political polarization is increasing, and it might help if political parties were less sorted. Encouraging issues that don’t follow the typical left/right divide could lead to more cooperation between parties.

PROJECT SYNDICATE DRAFT: Chaos-Monkey Trade Policy

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 176 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Administration Economic Impact Government Policies
  1. The upcoming Trump II administration is expected to create harmful policies for the country. It's important to pay attention to how these policies are communicated and executed.
  2. There's a strong need for the press to scrutinize which of Trump's Twitter claims actually lead to real policy changes. This oversight is crucial to understanding the potential impact on American society.
  3. The chaotic nature of Trump's trade decisions, like fluctuating tariffs on imports, shows unpredictability in trade policy. This inconsistency can affect economic relationships with neighboring countries.

Repeal the Jones Act of 1920

Don't Worry About the Vase • 3494 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Trade policy Regulatory issues National Security Economic Impact
  1. The Jones Act, enacted in 1920, restricts shipping between U.S. ports to American-built and operated ships, but it has led to a decline in U.S. shipbuilding and maritime trade. After a century, the country ships very little between its own ports, resulting in higher prices for consumers.
  2. Repealing the Jones Act could significantly reduce shipping costs, increase trade, and boost the economy. It would create more jobs and provide essential supplies more efficiently during emergencies, which often cannot be met due to current shipping constraints.
  3. Opponents of the Jones Act argue that it protects a limited number of jobs at the expense of overall economic growth. They believe that allowing competition from foreign ships would enhance the maritime industry and lead to better outcomes for consumers and the economy as a whole.

Top Links 624 Tariff arithmetic. The gearshift in global auto. Will India overtake Japan and Germany's likely lads.

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Tariffs Global Economy International relations
  1. Tariffs can raise prices for consumers. When tariffs are imposed, it often leads to higher prices for goods.
  2. India may soon become a major player in the global auto industry. Some believe it could surpass Japan and Germany in this sector.
  3. Understanding how trade policies like tariffs impact global markets is key. They can change the dynamics of industries and economies around the world.

Amb. Burns Reflects from Beijing

ChinaTalk • 415 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy International relations Geopolitics Conflict resolution Trade policy
  1. Dialogue is crucial in maintaining relationships between superpowers. Talking helps address issues and avoid misunderstandings that could escalate into conflicts.
  2. China faces a choice between aligning with disruptive nations like Russia or acting as a responsible global power. Their decisions now have significant implications for their international relationships.
  3. Having strong alliances is essential for the U.S. in its competition with China. Allies amplify American power and help maintain global stability.

RIP Shein and Temu?

Taylor Lorenz's Newsletter • 3791 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Ecommerce Free speech Political Campaigns Influencer Culture
  1. Shein and Temu are facing tough times due to new U.S. tariffs that could significantly raise prices for consumers. Many packages from China are now being stopped by customs, making it harder for these companies to operate.
  2. Joe Rogan defended himself against accusations from Kamala Harris' campaign about not being honest regarding an interview. He claims that the campaign never committed to appearing on his show, while Trump was easy to book.
  3. Substack won a legal battle over free speech, allowing a journalist to keep reporting on sensitive issues without being censored. This supports the idea that independent journalism should be protected.

China Caught

Diane Francis • 1218 implied HN points • 01 Aug 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics International relations Diplomacy National Security Trade policy Crime
  1. China has been cheating in trade by stealing ideas and lying about its deals. This has been hurting businesses and countries that rely on China.
  2. NATO has accused China of supporting Russia by giving them supplies, even after China promised not to. This shows that China can't be trusted in international agreements.
  3. China is also involved in the drug trade, providing materials to Mexican cartels. Despite their denials, evidence shows they continue to help with drug problems.

Trade War? Tariffs? How A Trump Election Would Change Tech

Big Technology • 2752 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Elections Global Trade Economic Impact
  1. Global trade is super important for tech companies like Apple and those in semiconductors. If trade gets disrupted, it could lead to higher prices and inflation.
  2. Donald Trump's potential election could lead to drastic changes in global trade, including high tariffs on imports. This could reshape the landscape for many tech businesses.
  3. With Trump's focus on tariffs, global trade issues might become the main concern for the tech industry instead of social media or other topics that dominated past elections.

& We Are Live Over at the "Milken Review", with: Chickens Coming Home to Roost?: The Perils of Deglobalization

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 276 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Globalization Trade policy International relations Economic Impact
  1. Countries are starting to use their market power for political reasons, which can hurt globalization. This means that economic decisions are becoming more political.
  2. The level of globalization has been changing a lot, and even though it dipped during the pandemic, it has started to recover. Still, many people are concerned about the risks of deglobalization.
  3. Reducing global connections might lead to higher prices and less innovation. The goal now seems to be working with other countries while being careful about becoming too dependent.

Fab Whack-A-Mole: Chinese Companies are Evading U.S. Sanctions

SemiAnalysis • 10102 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Sanctions National Security Trade policy International relations
  1. Chinese companies, particularly Huawei, are successfully finding loopholes to avoid U.S. export controls on advanced semiconductor technology. This allows them to enhance their domestic chip production capabilities.
  2. The current U.S. sanctions have not significantly harmed Western wafer fabrication equipment suppliers; in fact, these companies have been thriving during the period of restrictions.
  3. Future U.S. export controls need to be stricter and updated regularly to effectively combat the evasion strategies used by Chinese firms, ensuring that national security interests are maintained.

Chartbook 337 The stakes in the struggle over Trump's trade strategy.

Chartbook • 1473 implied HN points • 02 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Economic strategy Tariffs Public Opinion
  1. Trump's new trade strategy might lead to higher tariffs, which could raise prices for consumers. It’s planned to increase average tariffs from 2.6% to around 8% by 2026.
  2. Certain industries, especially car companies and food importers, could be hit hard by these tariffs. This could lead to increased car prices and food shortages.
  3. The success of Trump’s trade policy depends on balancing the interests of trade and public opinion. If people react negatively, it could limit how far he can go with these new tariffs.

America still needs Canadian oil. Here's why

Material World • 2899 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Energy Policy International relations Oil industry
  1. The US relies heavily on Canadian oil, with Canada providing around 61% of its oil imports. This shows that even though the US produces a lot of oil, it still needs oil from other countries like Canada.
  2. American refineries are designed to process heavy oil, which is mostly sourced from Canada. This creates a unique situation where even though the US is an oil producer, it still heavily imports due to refinery needs.
  3. If tariffs on Canadian oil increase, the US might have to look for heavy oil from countries like Venezuela or Russia, which could lead to more complicated geopolitical issues.

Critical Mineral Export Restrictions

ChinaTalk • 459 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Export Controls Geopolitics Supply Chains
  1. China recently restricted exports of critical minerals like germanium and gallium in response to U.S. semiconductor controls. This shows how trade tensions can impact global supply chains.
  2. Lessons from a past incident in 2010 highlight that China can use its control over rare earth exports as a political tool. This could lead to further supply vulnerabilities for countries reliant on these materials.
  3. To avoid dependency on a single country for critical minerals, nations should work on diversifying their supply sources. Expanding production options is key to maintaining access to important technology.

Top Links 593 How tariffs on imports from Mexico would hurt the US. Chinese v. Indian education. The rare whiskey bubble bursts & the danger of melting permafrost.

Chartbook • 300 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy International relations Economics Education Environment
  1. Tariffs on imports from Mexico could lead to negative effects for the US economy, as they might raise prices and reduce access to goods.
  2. There is an ongoing comparison between the education systems of China and India, highlighting their differences and impacts on global development.
  3. The rare whiskey market is experiencing a decline, which shows the risks of investment in specialized products, along with concerns about climate change affecting permafrost.

Top Links 581 Bessent's plans. US trade with Canada and Mexico. Wynn wins in UAE and meta Malta.

Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 08 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy International relations
  1. Bessent is planning to push for a 3% budget deficit for the US economy. This goal is seen as realistic and is aimed at strengthening economic stability.
  2. Trade relations between the US, Canada, and Mexico are highlighted. Understanding these trade dynamics can help grasp how they affect the US economy.
  3. Wynn's success in the UAE and the developments in Malta show the global reach of businesses. These victories can influence future investments and strategies.

The Battle to Shape Trump's China Policy

ChinaTalk • 622 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Political strategy Party Dynamics International relations Trade policy
  1. Trump's China policy is uncertain and has many different viewpoints among his supporters. They all agree about China's importance but disagree on how to deal with it.
  2. There are two main debates: one about economic issues and the other about military and geopolitical strategies. People might agree on economic solutions but have different ideas on military actions.
  3. Some view the U.S. as strong and capable of taking on China, while others are more pessimistic and believe the U.S. needs to lower its ambitions. This difference shapes their ideas on how to approach U.S.-China relations.