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Current-coupon agency MBS yields surged about 63 basis points since late February to roughly 5.44%, marking the largest three-week increase since October 2024 and the highest level since August 2025. This repricing followed global bond-market adjustments tied to the Iran War.
MBS spreads to Treasuries widened significantly, with CCMBS/10-year near 105 bp and CCMBS/7-year near 124 bp, reaching their widest levels since December 2025. The spread widening largely reflects a sharp rise in actual and implied interest-rate volatility (MOVE Index).
Treasury yields moved most in the belly of the curve, and the yield curve is now monotonically increasing from 6 months out to 20 years for the first time since May 2022. This indicates a broad shift toward higher medium- and longer-term yields.

Current-coupon MBS yields jumped to their highest since last September and CCMBS/Treasury spreads widened to levels not seen since December as surging oil prices and war-related uncertainty pushed overall interest rates up.
Implied interest-rate and equity volatility (MOVE and VIX) spiked, and higher rate volatility tends to raise MBS yields versus Treasuries because the mortgages’ embedded prepayment option becomes more costly to investors.
A prior announcement that GSEs would buy about $200 billion of MBS briefly tightened spreads, but since then CCMBS yields are roughly 21 basis points higher and spreads 10–13 bp wider, so investors buying alongside GSEs should have a clear exit strategy.

Mortgage-backed security yields fell when 10-year Treasuries briefly dropped below 4%, but MBS spreads to Treasuries widened and are now about as wide or wider than before the GSE purchase announcement.
Spreads had narrowed earlier due to very low rate volatility and expectations that GSEs were buying more MBS, yet rising implied and actual interest-rate volatility has pushed spreads wider again as markets reassess how sustainable the tight spreads are.
January GSE holdings rose only modestly (Freddie ~$3.9B, Fannie ~$11.5B), but those monthly figures show settled purchases only and don’t reflect commitments that would mostly settle in February or later, so they don’t reveal the true pace of GSE buying.

The Fed cut rates by 0.25% and said it will expand its balance sheet by buying short-term Treasurys to keep ample bank reserves.
Policymakers now expect inflation to fall (about 3% end-2025 and 2.5% in 2026) and slightly raised GDP forecasts while unemployment stays near current levels.
The balance-sheet move is meant to ease interbank liquidity strains and should push short-term yields lower, which has already helped lift futures and the stock market.

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