The hottest Monetary Policy Substack posts right now

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The Fed and Lennar

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Markets Investing Economics Monetary Policy Real Estate
  1. Inflation is still high, which affects the economy and people's spending. It's a major concern for many people right now.
  2. The Fed raises borrowing costs to control inflation, but this can also influence mortgage rates. Higher borrowing costs usually mean higher mortgage rates.
  3. There's a belief that when the Fed slows down on rate cuts, mortgage rates will rise further, impacting people's desire to buy homes. However, this idea may not be as straightforward as it seems.

The Fed's Repo Defensive: Part I

Concoda • 508 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Market Analysis Economic Indicators Liquidity management
  1. The Fed's repo facility has been used for the first time by major market players during a tough financial period. This shows it can help keep rates in check, but there are still issues to address.
  2. Over the past few years, the Fed's approach to managing its balance sheet has led to unstable liquidity in money markets. This instability caused significant rate spikes and raised concerns about the overall health of the financial system.
  3. When money market rates soared unexpectedly, it prompted the Fed to step in as a major lender. This was a significant move to bring balance back to the financial markets and highlight the Fed's critical role in managing economic stability.

The Fed's Repo Defensive: Part II

Concoda • 367 implied HN points • 24 Nov 24
💰 Finance Markets Monetary Policy Banking Economics Investments
  1. The Fed's Repo Facility helps provide emergency cash loans to banks when needed. This is crucial during times of financial stress to keep the market stable.
  2. Recently, there have been instances where dealers didn't fully utilize the available funds in the repo facility, indicating issues with how it's being accessed. This suggests that the process needs improvements to encourage more usage.
  3. The Fed is looking to make changes to the repo facility to fix its shortcomings and ensure dealers can quickly and efficiently obtain emergency funds when crises arise.
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Money Market Update

Concoda • 318 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Monetary Policy Liquidity management Investment Strategies
  1. The Federal Reserve is not worried about the debt ceiling impacting its plans to reduce its balance sheet. They believe liquidity in money markets is still high.
  2. The U.S. Treasury has enough resources to manage until around mid-2025, but any delays in addressing the debt ceiling could create funding issues.
  3. Equity repos, which involve borrowing cash using stocks as collateral, are becoming more popular. This trend is linked to rising demand and values of equities.

When we lost our minds: Pt. 4 Leamer's Counsel

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Monetary Policy Real Estate
  1. Housing start numbers are key indicators of upcoming recessions. When fewer homes are being built, it's often a sign that an economic downturn is near.
  2. The Federal Reserve may have waited too long to react to a housing market that was overheating, which ultimately could have led to more severe economic issues later on.
  3. In cities with strict building regulations, rising housing prices are often due to limited supply rather than demand. This creates significant issues like rent inflation and forced migration.

If We Have a Strong Economy, Why Are Americans Struggling?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Policy Market Trends Inflation Debt Management Monetary Policy
  1. Many Americans are struggling financially even when the economy seems strong. High inflation and rising costs are making life harder for a lot of people.
  2. Rising treasury yields and mortgage rates are linked to ongoing inflation and economic uncertainty. This means borrowing money is becoming more expensive.
  3. When people feel the pinch of price increases and government spending on foreign issues, they are likely to vote for change. Economic struggles can greatly influence election outcomes.

Trump’s Victory Has "Delayed The Fiscal Meltdown Scenario"...For Now

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 15 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Monetary Policy Economic Analysis Commodities
  1. The stock market is doing well, but gold, silver, and Bitcoin are also gaining value. This shows that investors are already worried about future inflation.
  2. Gold and Bitcoin are acting as warning signs for money printing and potential economic trouble. They have seen significant growth compared to traditional U.S. Treasury bonds.
  3. There is a chance the Federal Reserve will have to resort to methods like quantitative easing again, which means they could start printing more money to stabilize the economy. This could lead to further increases in the value of sound money assets.

The ASOMOCO Top 10 (2024 Edition)

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 226 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💼 Business Economics Finance Corporate Innovation Monetary Policy
  1. Corporations use simplified interfaces to interact with people, making it easier for us to deal with their complex structures. This can give them a more relatable personality, changing how we perceive them.
  2. Billionaires are often seen as uniquely gifted individuals, but this view overlooks the collaborative efforts of many people that contribute to their success. It's important to understand the collective work behind big achievements.
  3. Surveillance is becoming normalized as companies find new, clever ways to collect our data. They often spin this as a fun experience, making people look forward to sharing their information.

First Principles of Fiscal Policy, with Some of Their Practical Applications

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 123 implied HN points • 22 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy Monetary Policy Economic strategy Inflation Public Opinion
  1. The Federal Reserve's approach in the 2020s, which involved acting quickly, turned out to be effective. Many people are thankful for the leadership during this time.
  2. Inflation in the early 2020s might not have been bad because it helped avoid a deeper recession and led to a better economy in some ways.
  3. Voters who understood the economy generally supported Democrats, while those who were confused tended to back Republicans. This shows how informed opinions can influence political choices.

The BoJ is Trapped

The Dollar Endgame • 279 implied HN points • 19 Mar 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Bank Inflation Interest Rates
  1. The Bank of Japan raised its rates for the first time in years, adjusting its primary goal for short-term interest rates and marking its first rate hike since 2007.
  2. The Bank of Japan previously used Negative Interest Rate Policy to stimulate borrowing and lending to revitalize Japan's sluggish economy.
  3. The Bank of Japan has ceased certain policies but will continue to print money, maintain low rates, and combat potential inflation, as seen through their recent monetary announcements.

Infographics: U.S. Repo Market Mechanics

Concoda • 237 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Markets Investing Economics Banking Monetary Policy
  1. The U.S. repo market is a place where banks and financial institutions borrow and lend money, often overnight.
  2. Understanding how the repo market works is important because it affects interest rates and overall market stability.
  3. Visual infographics can help simplify complex topics like the repo market, making it easier for everyone to understand.

Imminent Yield Curve Uninversion

The Bitcoin Layer • 412 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Financial Crises
  1. The Fed made minor adjustments to monetary policy recently, ending certain borrowing and investing practices in banks.
  2. The Fed is preparing banks for potential crises by encouraging them to use existing facilities like the discount window.
  3. Financial stability is a concern due to leveraged banks and risky lenders of last resort, indicating underlying instability in the financial system.

Notes on the Macro-Finance Sitch for 2025-01-13 Mo

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 184 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Labor Market Interest Rates
  1. The U.S. labor market is still strong, showing no signs of cooling off. Recently, 256,000 new jobs were added, which is much more than expected.
  2. Inflation in the U.S. hasn't exceeded the Federal Reserve's target since mid-2022, but there's concern it could rise again. The Fed needs to make sure its policies stay neutral to keep inflation in check.
  3. There are worries that the current financial market is overly optimistic. If the expectations for market growth don't pan out, it could lead to a serious economic downturn.

BOJ Finally Pulls the Trigger on Rate Policy, But It’s a Low-Caliber Gun

Japan Economy Watch • 259 implied HN points • 20 Mar 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Inflation Economic Forecast Currency Exchange
  1. BOJ's interest rate policy tweak is more about changing the mechanism to keep rates low, gradually raising overnight rates from negative to low positive percentages over time.
  2. Ending Yield Curve Control means BOJ stops directly controlling long-term rates but still aims to keep them low by continuing to buy the same amount of long-term bonds.
  3. BOJ remains focused on low inflation and plans to raise interest rates if it rises too high, but for now, it sees current inflation as temporary due to global factors.

November 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 17 Dec 24
💰 Finance Inflation Housing Economics Monetary Policy Market Trends
  1. Inflation has been steadily around 2% since July 2022, excluding housing costs. This shows a consistent trend rather than sudden spikes.
  2. The Federal Reserve has managed to control most types of inflation, but rent prices remain outside of their control. This situation creates a misunderstanding about overall inflation levels.
  3. There's a belief that inflation might change direction suddenly, but the speaker sees no reason for that to happen. The last 29 months have shown stability in most areas.

Beyond Growth: A Strategy for Tackling Power. My speech to the EU Conference

System Change • 668 implied HN points • 29 May 23
🌍 World Politics Economic Models Climate change Monetary Policy Authoritarianism
  1. The Money Interest holds real power over the planet and must be challenged by focusing on monetary policy.
  2. The economic model discussed highlights the need to shift focus from attacking the 99% for consumption to holding the 1% accountable for overproduction.
  3. To mobilize the majority for change, we must shine a light on the finance sector, educate ourselves on monetary policy, and focus on challenging the 1% instead of the 99%.

Bank of England holds rates, but...

Off to Lunch • 334 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Business News Economy Interest Rates
  1. The Bank of England decided to keep interest rates at 5.25%, despite a split vote among committee members.
  2. Inflation is still high in the UK at 4%, above the Bank's 2% target, but recent data suggests a slowdown in the economy.
  3. The Bank's monetary policy report hints at inflation potentially dropping to 2% in the near future, but interest rates may not be cut until sustained evidence is seen.

Fed Pivots to More Hikes, More Pain

cryptoeconomy • 648 implied HN points • 10 Jun 23
💰 Finance Economic Policy Monetary Policy Inflation Banking Investing
  1. The Federal Reserve is planning more interest rate hikes and tightening measures, signaling potential economic pain.
  2. Despite initial expectations of a pause in rate hikes due to economic impacts not yet fully realized, Fed Governor Waller is advocating for further hikes to curb inflation.
  3. Quantitative Tightening, the reversal of money printing, may be the next step for the Fed despite past failures, raising concerns of potential economic disruptions and widespread impacts.

Infographics: The Fed's Standing Repo Facility In Action

Concoda • 216 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics Banking Investing Monetary Policy Markets
  1. The Federal Reserve has a special tool called a repo facility to manage money supply in the economy. It helps banks borrow money quickly when they need it.
  2. This repo facility can provide short-term loans to banks, which helps keep the financial system stable. It's like a safety net during times of financial stress.
  3. Understanding how this facility works is important for grasping the bigger picture of economic stability and the Fed's role in it. It helps us see how money flows in the economy.

2024 Predictions

The Dollar Endgame • 359 implied HN points • 13 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economy Monetary Policy Inflation Government spending Market Analysis
  1. The Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting rates by Q2 or Q3 and possibly implement quantitative easing, based on recent signals and market predictions.
  2. There is an anticipation that the Fed will eventually restart quantitative easing due to factors like high deficits and pressure from the Monetary Black Hole, impacting financial markets and assets.
  3. Inflation is expected to return in the near future as liquidity programs kick in, fiscal deficits grow, and government spending increases, potentially leading to economic challenges and a recession.

October 2024 Inflation and Housing

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
💰 Finance Inflation Housing Monetary Policy Economic Trends
  1. Inflation is returning to a 2% trend, which is good news, but this isn't widely reported. This trend is important for future monetary policy decisions.
  2. Rent inflation is finally slowing down, and maintaining consistent home prices is helping this situation. Focusing on general inflation rather than rent can help stabilize the economy.
  3. Excessive rent inflation has been controlled, but there should be a focus on building more homes over the next decade to further improve housing affordability.

Zen And The Art Of Market Crash Fear Porn

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 28 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment strategy Economic Trends Monetary Policy Risk management
  1. It's important to consider that you could be wrong about the market crashing; sometimes things can go up instead of down. Keeping an open mind helps in understanding the unpredictable nature of markets.
  2. Thinking about worst-case scenarios can be useful, even if they seem unlikely. It’s good to prepare yourself mentally for different outcomes.
  3. Rethinking your assumptions is healthy, especially when the market behaves in ways that don't make sense. Questioning yourself can lead to growth and better insights.

Corporate profits were biggest driver of inflation in Europe, IMF admits

Geopolitical Economy Report • 538 implied HN points • 27 Jun 23
💰 Finance Inflation Corporate Profits Central Banks Monetary Policy
  1. Corporate profits have been a major driver of inflation in Europe since 2021, with companies increasing prices more than the rising costs of imported energy.
  2. The IMF suggests that companies may need to reduce profit margins to help keep inflation in line with targets set by the European Central Bank.
  3. The study challenges the traditional view that inflation is solely caused by demand-pull factors, highlighting how excessive profit increases by corporations can also drive inflation.

Why Did The BOJ Move Despite Conflicting Evidence on Wages and Prices?

Japan Economy Watch • 179 implied HN points • 21 Mar 24
💰 Finance Economy Banking Inflation Monetary Policy Wages
  1. The Bank of Japan's decision to make monetary policy changes despite unclear wage and price trends was questioned.
  2. There was no immediate financial market pressure on the BOJ to act, as rates were stable and not pushing past set levels.
  3. Conflicting data on wage trends created uncertainty, with various databases showing contradictory evidence, making predictions difficult.

The Bank of England's Jonathan Haskel on Inflation, Productivity, Brexit, and More

The Overshoot • 511 implied HN points • 13 Feb 23
💰 Finance Inflation Productivity Brexit Monetary Policy Economic Impact
  1. The Bank of England is grappling with the challenges of high inflation, low GDP, and rising unemployment due to tight labor and energy markets.
  2. There is significant uncertainty in economic forecasts, leading to a cautious approach in monetary policy decisions.
  3. Brexit has had a major impact on the UK's productivity growth and economic performance, with factors like weak business investment and health-related inactivity contributing to the situation.

Chartbook 216: Heroic periodization: histories of Bretton Woods & the "New Washington Consensus"

Chartbook • 1745 implied HN points • 29 May 23
🌍 World Politics Monetary Policy Economic History Global Governance International relations
  1. The era of Bretton Woods had a complex history and its implications for today's economic policy are significant.
  2. Historical narratives like Bretton Woods can be used to legitimize and motivate action, but may not always align with reality.
  3. Understanding the continuous process of policy-making improvisation without succumbing to its complexities is crucial for shaping economic policy.

O governo surfa na competência do Banco Central que apedreja

O Observador de Corcyra • 432 implied HN points • 03 Jul 23
💼 Business Economics Government Finance Monetary Policy Central Bank
  1. The global economy in 2023 is influenced by fiscal and monetary actions taken during the pandemic, leading to low unemployment rates and strong consumer spending.
  2. Adjustments in monetary policies by central banks since 2021 have helped moderate inflation, especially in goods, and sustain economic activity without indicating a global recession in 2023.
  3. The independence of the Central Bank has allowed for the implementation of correct monetary policies, contributing to the consistent economic performance of Brazil and the potential for future organized monetary relaxation.

Repo Crisis Revisited

The Dollar Endgame • 199 implied HN points • 13 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economic Crisis Federal Reserve Financial system Monetary Policy
  1. The repo market is crucial for global finance, and it broke down in September 2019, causing significant repercussions.
  2. The Federal Reserve has been deeply involved in the repo market to ensure the smooth functioning of the world's secured borrowing system.
  3. In September 2019, there was a sudden surge in overnight money market rates, leading to unexpected fluctuations and challenges in the financial system.

A política monetária nos EUA se encontra em território restritivo?

O Observador de Corcyra • 412 implied HN points • 26 Feb 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Interest Rates Economic Analysis Macroeconomics
  1. The US monetary policy has been restrictive with significant impact on the economy and financial conditions.
  2. There are debates on whether the current monetary policy pace is appropriate or if adjustments should be made.
  3. Models and projections show the complexity of predicting inflation and the impact on future monetary policy decisions.

Bonds are the Ultimate Shitcoin

The Dollar Endgame • 399 implied HN points • 17 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investing Economics Banking Debt Monetary Policy
  1. Bonds are facing significant challenges with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and inflation, causing a major downturn in the bond market.
  2. Bonds are crucial in the financial system and act as a form of money, affecting various sectors like banking and exposing risks in durations and interest rate movements.
  3. The bond market's current struggles are indicative of larger economic issues, with potential consequences for inflation, debt, and decisions by the Federal Reserve.

Ayahuasca and the Simulacrum

The Dollar Endgame • 359 implied HN points • 03 Nov 23
💰 Finance Economy Markets Central Bank Derivatives Monetary Policy
  1. Jorge Luis Borges' fable "On Exactitude in Science" explores the concept of representation and the consequences of abstractions overtaking reality.
  2. Psychedelics like Ayahuasca can challenge our perceptions by dissolving the ego and blurring boundaries between the self and the external world.
  3. The modern financial system, with its heavy reliance on derivatives, has created a simulacrum that central bankers manipulate, leading to a dangerous dependence on fake money.