The hottest Defense Policy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top U.S. Politics Topics

On "Peace Plans" and Military (Im)Mobility in Europe

Phillips’s Newsletter • 194 implied HN points • 21 Nov 25
🌍 World Politics Defense Policy
  1. The latest US-Russian peace plan for Ukraine seems unlikely to succeed because it hasn't involved necessary discussions with other parties. Both Ukraine and Europe have their own reasons to be cautious about any proposed deal.
  2. Military mobility in Europe is a big concern, especially for countries close to Russia. It currently takes too long to move troops where they are needed, which could be dangerous if tensions rise.
  3. The EU is working on improving military mobility through a project called PESCO. They aim to make it easier for military equipment and troops to move smoothly across Europe, so delays won't be a problem in the future.

The State and the Soldier

Comment is Freed • 102 implied HN points • 21 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Defense Policy
  1. The American system depends on clear civilian control of the military, and letting the military judge or override civilian leaders would risk praetorianism and damage democracy, so any fix must come from civilian institutions like Congress.
  2. It is wrong to put the legal burden on commanders to refuse or judge orders; civilian leaders and legal offices must provide clear, lawful authorization so service members are not forced to choose between obedience and court-martial.
  3. Recent politicization and weak civilian leadership are straining civil‑military relations through firings and public interventions, but Congress, the courts, state governments, and civil society remain the primary checks and make a military takeover unlikely.

Biden Ramps Up Nuclear Brinkmanship On His Way Out The Door

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 1965 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Defense Policy
  1. The Biden administration has authorized Ukraine to use long-range missiles supplied by the US against Russian military targets. This decision raises concerns about a possible escalation in the conflict.
  2. Some officials believe this move may not change the overall situation in the war, but it risks provoking a strong response from Russia. There's a fear of pushing the conflict closer to direct confrontation.
  3. This policy change comes as political shifts occur, with a new administration potentially less supportive of Ukraine on the horizon. The risks taken in this situation highlight the serious dangers present in current international relations.

OSD 356: Time-to-effective-resistance

Open Source Defense • 94 implied HN points • 18 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Defense Policy
  1. Mass shootings usually end once the attacker meets effective resistance, so the main driver of casualties is how long it takes for someone to stop them.
  2. A gun's rate of fire or technical lethality matters less than victims' helplessness and the delay before intervention, so limits like smaller magazines often don't change outcomes much.
  3. Widespread armed presence in public can make effective resistance arrive within seconds and sharply reduce harm, but unarmed bystander attempts to disarm attackers are very dangerous and highly situational.

Why Ukraine Must Win

Diane Francis • 759 implied HN points • 21 Dec 23
🌍 World Politics Defense Policy
  1. Ukraine needs more military aid from the US and Europe to defend itself against Russia. Without this support, Russia could gain even more territory.
  2. If Ukraine gets the right amount of funding and military equipment this year, it could turn the situation around and push back Russian advances.
  3. If Ukraine loses, it would not only be a big shift in power but could also mean more US troops in Eastern Europe to handle the aftermath.
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Thinking Backwards.

Trying to Understand the World • 8 implied HN points • 25 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Defense Policy
  1. The West is trapped in wishful thinking and intellectual ignorance about large-scale war and Russia, so leaders keep hoping for a miracle instead of facing political and military realities.
  2. Russia is pursuing a broad attrition strategy that targets Ukraine's overall war-making capacity, and modern technologies like drones now often favor the defender, so counting territory gains or losses misses the real strategic impact.
  3. Talk of "rearmament" is mostly money and slogans without coherent aims; sensible policy must start with clear strategic objectives and then work down to missions, tasks, capabilities and concepts of operation before buying equipment.

The Opportunity Costs of Offensive War

Points And Figures • 1039 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Defense Policy
  1. Opportunity costs are important when making decisions, especially in war. They help clarify the impacts of our choices by forcing us to think in numerical terms.
  2. Advanced technologies like drones and robots are changing warfare. These advancements could minimize human losses, which changes how countries weigh the risks of engaging in conflict.
  3. Winning the tech race is crucial for national security. If a country falls behind in technological advancements, it could lose its strategic advantages in future conflicts.

OSD 359: The next vibe shift

Open Source Defense • 38 implied HN points • 08 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Defense Policy
  1. When the government adopts a cultural trend or meme, it drains that trend’s energy and makes it feel co-opted and uncool.
  2. There’s a real difference between tech that makes the government competent and tech that empowers the state, and without structural limits competence tech often becomes empowerment tech that increases central power.
  3. Centralized state power is inherently risky for civilian defense, so supporters of individual arms and liberty should be wary of government control, and reactions to scandals or attacks could quickly change how far the state expands.

January 16, 2026

Letters from an American • 28 implied HN points • 17 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Defense Policy
  1. He has accepted and displayed symbolic honors, like a Nobel medal and team gifts, to promote his personal achievements. He repeatedly claims credit for ending wars and uses these moments to bolster his image.
  2. He is pushing to "own" Greenland, saying ownership is psychologically important and suggesting that treaties or international law need not constrain him. His rhetoric treats territorial control like a real-estate deal rather than allied diplomacy.
  3. His Greenland demands have provoked strong bipartisan and allied pushback, with NATO partners increasing forces in the region and U.S. lawmakers moving to block any attack. Critics warn that trying to seize a NATO territory could collapse the alliance and risk wider conflict.

Top Links 639 Buybacks over investment in the US military-industrial complex. The Indian economy shifts gear. RAND on burden-sharing & Britain's wars of decolonization.

Chartbook • 557 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Defense Policy
  1. There's a discussion about how companies are focusing more on buybacks instead of investing in important areas like the military complex. It raises questions about the priorities of businesses.
  2. The Indian economy appears to be making significant progress. This could indicate shifts in global economic dynamics and growth in emerging markets.
  3. A report from RAND explores how countries share defense responsibilities, particularly relating to Britain's historical wars. This could provide insights into current international relations and military commitments.

DeSantis and the Hawkish Thought Police

Eunomia • 393 implied HN points • 22 Mar 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Defense Policy
  1. DeSantis' statement on Ukraine triggered hawkish critics, but he didn't specifically oppose aid to Ukraine.
  2. Critics attacking DeSantis for not seeing Ukraine as vital to the US highlights toxicity in policy debates.
  3. DeSantis' past actions suggest he aligns with hawkish agendas, despite recent criticism on his Ukraine stance.

Pete Hegseth: The Short Course

Thinking about... • 622 implied HN points • 24 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Defense Policy
  1. Pete Hegseth, who is nominated for a key defense position, has no real experience in national security or running large organizations.
  2. He doesn't recognize global threats to America and has a narrow view on military alliances, believing they are unnecessary.
  3. Hegseth promotes a military shaped by personal beliefs rather than expertise, which could lead to serious issues in defense strategy.

NATO: Fight "Fire with Fire"

Diane Francis • 759 implied HN points • 06 Feb 23
🌍 World Politics Defense Policy
  1. NATO needs to increase military support for Ukraine quickly to match Russia's aggression. Ukraine requires more tanks, fighter jets, and long-range rockets to effectively counter Putin's forces.
  2. The conflict between Ukraine and Russia is unlikely to end with negotiations. A decisive victory for Ukraine is necessary to ensure peace and the removal of Putin's threat.
  3. To avoid a stalemate, the West must fully commit to supporting Ukraine's military efforts. This includes supplying advanced weapons and making clear announcements of support to boost morale and deter Russia.

Hu Bo: The Philippines’ Overblown Ambitions for Huangyan Dao/Scarborough Shoal

Pekingnology • 30 implied HN points • 16 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Defense Policy
  1. The Philippines is fixated on Huangyan Dao despite limited capability, using fishing and supply missions and public rhetoric to press claims and score domestic political points.
  2. China sees Huangyan Dao as undisputed sovereign territory and has shown restraint, but it is prepared to respond firmly and even take stronger measures if Philippine provocations continue.
  3. The United States provides diplomatic and intelligence support but the 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty is vague and discretionary, so Washington may avoid direct intervention and prioritises its broader strategic competition with China.

Europe: Some Good News And Some Bad

Phillips’s Newsletter • 158 implied HN points • 11 Jul 25
🌍 World Politics Defense Policy
  1. Europe is starting to think about being more independent from the USA for defense. They're making steps like setting up a military headquarters to help Ukraine on their own terms.
  2. Even with some positive signs, Europe is moving slowly and has not done enough for Ukraine, especially as attacks from Russia increase. They could have been more proactive in supporting Ukraine sooner.
  3. The situation in Ukraine shows that mistakes have been made and now the people there are paying the price. European countries need to learn from these failures and act quickly.

The National Security and National Defense Strategies

Who is Robert Malone • 9 implied HN points • 27 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Defense Policy
  1. The strategy puts American sovereignty first, moving away from broad global intervention and focusing on selective, interest-based engagement to protect core national priorities.
  2. Defending the homeland and the Western Hemisphere is the top priority, treating border security, migration, and narco‑terrorism as national security threats and investing in layered defenses like a ‘Golden Dome’ missile shield.
  3. Peace is sought through deterrence and strength: deter China with a robust Indo‑Pacific posture, demand greater allied burden‑sharing, and rapidly rebuild the domestic defense industrial base.

$10k defense grants + divorce reality tv + where immigration reform goes to die

ChinaTalk • 400 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Defense Policy
  1. A new group is offering $5,000 to $10,000 grants to people who can share bold ideas about defense strategies and military innovation. They want fresh thinking and to challenge old ways of doing things.
  2. There's a popular Chinese reality show where married couples, on the verge of divorce, go on a road trip together. It's creating a lot of buzz as viewers watch their emotional journey unfold.
  3. Recent changes in U.S. immigration policy aim to help international students who were required to return to their home countries after studying. It took a long time to fix this issue, highlighting problems in the system.

Ukrainian Drone Strategy Against Russian Energy Infrastructure: Part Two

Glen’s Substack • 39 implied HN points • 26 Jun 24
🌍 World Politics Defense Policy
  1. Ukraine has improved its drone technology, with new models like Nynja and Lyutyi enabling long-range attacks on Russian energy facilities. This has allowed them to expand their strike capabilities significantly.
  2. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is crucial for these drones, helping them navigate through Russian defenses and improve accuracy. This technology allows drones to operate autonomously without satellite communication.
  3. There has been a shift in Ukraine's military stance, demonstrating confidence in using drones for strategic strikes. Successful attacks on key refinery components can cripple Russian operations and reduce their oil refining capacity.

An Interview With Andriy Zagorodnyuk

Phillips’s Newsletter • 128 implied HN points • 26 Jun 25
🌍 World Politics Defense Policy
  1. Ukraine plans to win the war by using smart strategies and new technologies instead of getting stuck in long fights with Russia. They want to build up their state and economy while still defending against threats.
  2. Drones and unmanned systems are changing how wars are fought. Ukraine needs to adapt quickly to these technologies to keep up with Russia and gain an advantage in the conflict.
  3. European support is crucial for Ukraine, especially in getting advanced military supplies. Maintaining a good relationship with the US is also important for securing needed resources to defend against Russia.

Data Warfare

How the Hell • 110 implied HN points • 12 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Defense Policy
  1. Offensive data operations are being considered as a strategy against China. This means using information tactics to weaken their tech progress.
  2. The military industry is cautious about discussing these strategies openly. They think the ideas are good but worry about public talks.
  3. These operations aim to disrupt and slow down China's advancements in AI, which could have big implications for global technology competition.

Are We Seeing A Paradigm Shift On US Public Opinion And Foreign/Defense Policy?

Phillips’s Newsletter • 86 implied HN points • 22 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Defense Policy
  1. There's a shift happening in how Americans view foreign and defense policies. This change isn't just about Trump; it's larger and was coming regardless.
  2. Many people incorrectly believe that the US will return to the foreign policies from before 1945. But that may not happen, as public opinion is changing.
  3. Other countries shouldn't rely on America sticking to its past commitments. The public seems more skeptical of international involvement now.

What can Europe do?

Klement on Investing • 6 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Defense Policy
  1. The EU should push back firmly against U.S. threats because standing firm has proven more effective than appeasement.
  2. Europe has a wide range of tools it can use, from pausing trade talks and imposing tariffs to using tech rules, procurement preferences, anti-coercion measures, export taxes, and targeted fines, though some options risk short-term pain like higher inflation.
  3. If tensions escalated toward military annexation, the EU could take drastic steps such as limiting U.S. military presence, invoking mutual-defence mechanisms, restricting U.S. firms, and imposing sanctions and asset freezes.

DoD Had Its Most Spendy Month Since the Bush Era

OpenTheBooks Substack • 217 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Defense Policy
  1. In September 2024, the Department of Defense spent over $79 billion, marking its highest spending since 2008. This was a huge jump in expenses compared to past months.
  2. A lot of the money went to familiar things like ammunition and aircraft, but there were some surprising purchases too, like millions spent on lobster, steaks, and even musical instruments.
  3. Despite spending most of the budget within the U.S., the Pentagon also gave nearly $2 billion to foreign companies, showing a global aspect to military spending.

Civilization 1 million, Russia 0

Diane Francis • 539 implied HN points • 30 Jun 22
🌍 World Politics Defense Policy
  1. The G7 and NATO have united to support Ukraine against Russia, marking a significant global response to aggression. This coalition aims to strengthen military and economic support for Ukraine.
  2. NATO is expanding its military presence and capability in response to the conflict, with plans to increase troops and improve defense strategies. This is a shift towards taking greater responsibility for European security.
  3. Despite the support for Ukraine, there is concern that it may not be enough to deter Russia, as the situation remains dire for Ukraine. The Ukrainian people are committed to their fight, showing resilience against overwhelming odds.

"Putin has a very thin skin..."

Comment is Freed • 58 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
🌍 World Politics Defense Policy
  1. Having external reviewers in a defense review process can provide fresh and honest perspectives, which might lead to more innovative solutions. It's better than just relying on internal opinions.
  2. Securing more funding for defense is crucial, and it's important to project future financial needs to avoid making tough cuts later. Having clear budgets helps planning and capability development.
  3. Feeling pressure from various departments is common, especially when trying to implement significant changes. It's essential to navigate these dynamics carefully to achieve the best outcomes.

Trump’s Caribbean Snuff Film Studio

The Cosmopolitan Globalist • 11 implied HN points • 11 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Defense Policy
  1. Politics is being run as show business, with spectacle and fan loyalty prioritized over coherent policy or principle.
  2. A high-profile naval operation in the Caribbean reportedly involved bombing small boats and even ordering strikes on shipwrecked survivors, conduct described as extrajudicial killing and a possible war crime under the law of armed conflict.
  3. Turning military violence into entertainment corrodes the honor and effectiveness of the armed forces and degrades civic norms, driving away honorable recruits and normalizing brutality.

Saturday Commentary and Review #181

Fisted by Foucault • 154 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Defense Policy
  1. The collapse of the Syrian government has surprising global effects, especially concerning China's security. The presence of Uyghur militants fighting in Syria poses a potential threat to China's Xinjiang region.
  2. In many Western societies, the traditional separation between government and private interests has blurred. This post-liberal shift often sees political agendas influencing both public opinion and private actions.
  3. European nations are currently facing significant challenges, including economic passivity and loss of sovereignty. This has led to a sense of pessimism and isolation among many Europeans as they perceive a decline in their collective influence.

Ukraine's Trojan Trucks

The Cosmopolitan Globalist • 66 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25
🌍 World Politics Defense Policy
  1. Ukraine executed a surprise drone attack deep inside Russia that damaged a significant part of its nuclear capabilities. This shows Ukraine's military skill and creativity.
  2. The success of this operation highlights gaps in Russia's defense and intelligence, suggesting it may struggle to maintain its military strength. This could change the balance of power in the region.
  3. The use of cheap drones against a nuclear power illustrates a new direction in warfare. It raises questions about traditional military strategies and defenses for all nations, including the U.S.

The Last Supper

The Weekly Gazette • 15 implied HN points • 17 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Defense Policy
  1. In 1993, a major dinner at the Pentagon for defense contractors led to big changes in the U.S. defense industry. Many companies merged or went out of business, leaving only five major contractors in the field.
  2. This consolidation allowed a few companies to hold significant power over military spending, making lobbying crucial for their survival. They shifted focus to securing government contracts after many defense budgets were cut.
  3. The relationship between defense contractors and U.S. foreign policy became tighter, especially as conflicts like the Iraq War arose. This has raised concerns about how much influence these companies have over decisions affecting national and global security.

Japan, Germany Re-arm

Diane Francis • 379 implied HN points • 23 May 22
🌍 World Politics Defense Policy
  1. Japan and Germany are increasing their military strength for the first time since World War II, mainly due to rising threats from Russia and China. This shift shows they are ready to play a bigger role in global security.
  2. Both countries are also changing their defensive strategies, with Japan possibly revising its pacifist constitution and Germany committing to higher defense spending. This reflects a new approach to handling international conflicts.
  3. The rearmament of these nations can alter the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region. Their actions signal support for democratic values and alliances against authoritarian threats.

Iran’s Panopticon Prison: AI, Gaz-a-Lago and MIGA

Dr. Pippa's Pen & Podcast • 48 implied HN points • 22 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Defense Policy
  1. The situation in Iran is tense, and the U.S. is using its power to respond to Iran's actions. This ongoing conflict feels like an invisible war that many believe has been underway for some time.
  2. There’s a focus on whether recent military actions against Iran succeeded. The results might change everything regarding the future relationship and actions of the U.S. and Iran.
  3. Iran's government and its supporters are being closely monitored using advanced technology. This means there’s a lot of data available, making it hard for people to hide from authorities.

You Can't Get There From Here.

Trying to Understand the World • 9 implied HN points • 26 Nov 25
🌍 World Politics Defense Policy
  1. The word “war” with Russia is vague and dangerous: without clear, concrete assumptions about what a conflict would actually look like, any military planning is almost meaningless.
  2. Geography, distances and logistics make large-scale conventional campaigning across Europe impractical today, so conflicts would be decided largely by missiles, drones and how well states can police air and sea frontiers.
  3. What’s needed is a realistic NATO political-military doctrine and practical plans for limited scenarios (frontier policing, Baltic/Finland, Black Sea), not symbolic troop gestures that could be destroyed or escalate the situation.

What Europe is Missing.

Phillips’s Newsletter • 115 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
🌍 World Politics Defense Policy
  1. European countries are starting to talk about their own military actions, especially regarding Ukraine. This shows a shift in how they view their defense responsibilities.
  2. There's a question about whether Europe can really defend itself without support from the USA. Many believe that it's not just about ability, but also mindset.
  3. The main issue isn't capability; it's whether European nations can picture themselves being independent in defense matters. It's more about perception than actual strength.

How Can Ukraine's Security Be Guaranteed?

Comment is Freed • 86 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🌍 World Politics Defense Policy
  1. Security guarantees are important for protecting vulnerable nations like Ukraine from aggression. They help reassure those nations that allies will come to their aid if needed.
  2. Ukraine's past experiences, like the Budapest Memorandum, make them skeptical about security promises. When international support was needed, Ukraine found itself largely abandoned.
  3. To truly deter future aggression, Ukraine needs strong commitments from NATO or a substantial multinational force. This could help prevent another attack and show that the international community stands with Ukraine.

Zelensky's Five Point Plan is Asking for Ukraine to be Treated like a Normal, Sovereign European State

Phillips’s Newsletter • 92 implied HN points • 16 Oct 24
🌍 World Politics Defense Policy
  1. Zelensky presented a five-point plan to emphasize Ukraine's right to be treated like any other European country. This is about making Ukraine part of the normal conversation in Europe.
  2. His plan includes reasonable requests for defense support and economic partnerships, which are common for democratic nations. It shows he is not asking for special treatment.
  3. The straightforward nature of his asks indicates a balanced approach, suggesting Ukraine seeks its rightful place in Europe without making extreme demands.

Beijing Bullyboys

Diane Francis • 399 implied HN points • 17 May 21
🌍 World Politics Defense Policy
  1. Taiwan is facing pressure from China to be absorbed back into its rule. Despite being economically successful, Taiwan remains isolated diplomatically with only a few countries recognizing it as independent.
  2. Taiwan dominates the global semiconductor market, making it vital for the world economy. Its advanced technology keeps it at the forefront, making it hard for competitors like China to catch up.
  3. Many countries, especially in Asia, have concerns about China's growing influence. It's important for these nations to support Taiwan, and better alliances are needed to counter China's ambitions.

Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Bullies

Diane Francis • 379 implied HN points • 22 Apr 21
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Defense Policy
  1. Putin and China are increasingly aggressive, and their actions present a big challenge for Biden and the U.S. They are acting like bullies and trying to expand their influence.
  2. Both Ukraine and Taiwan are standing strong against these threats. Ukraine is preparing for possible war, while Taiwan is building up its defenses.
  3. The world needs to work together to stop the aggression from Russia and China. Biden must rally support from other countries to protect global peace and security.

The Short War Illusion: The Real US Achilles Heel

Phillips’s Newsletter • 80 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Defense Policy
  1. Many people wrongly believe that wars will end quickly, but history shows us that's often not the case. Thinking a war will wrap up in a few days is a dangerous illusion.
  2. This 'short war' mindset has been repeated before, like during the start of World War I and the early stages of the Ukraine conflict. Such beliefs can lead to serious strategic mistakes.
  3. The U.S. defense industry currently faces challenges that could make quick victories unlikely, especially in potential conflicts with countries like China. It’s important to prepare for long-term engagements.

The Missile Will Always Get Through.

Trying to Understand the World • 15 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics Defense Policy
  1. Russia has developed advanced missile technology that can accurately strike targets far away. This puts them in a strong position since these missiles are hard to intercept.
  2. The West's reliance on manned aircraft for attacks is outdated compared to Russia's focus on missile capabilities. This means Russia can hit important infrastructure while the West struggles to defend against these attacks.
  3. Western leaders may not fully grasp the threat posed by Russia's missile advancements. There is a risk that they will ignore the reality of their vulnerability and not prepare adequately for potential conflicts.

Nyhetsbrev steigan.no 11.07.2025

steigan.no • 3 implied HN points • 11 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Defense Policy
  1. NATO is planning to increase its members' defense spending significantly, but this move seems more about boosting U.S. arms sales than actually combating Russia.
  2. The BRICS group has expanded, now representing over half of the world's population and a substantial share of the global economy, signaling a shift in international alliances.
  3. In the U.S., the ability to supply weapons to Ukraine is being questioned due to a lack of domestic industrial capacity, highlighting issues with America's military logistics.