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ChinaTalk offers an analytical perspective on US-China relations, focusing on policy, technology, economic issues, and cultural exchanges. It translates Chinese sources to explore communism, Taiwan's politics, military dynamics, tech advancements, industrial policies, and societal trends, while evaluating global implications and China's internal and external strategies.

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The hottest Substack posts of ChinaTalk

And their main takeaways

TikTok Ban - Is Congress For Real?

340 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Social media National Security Tech industry
  1. The US House of Representatives voted in favor of a bill to force ByteDance to sell TikTok or cease its operation in the US within 180 days.
  2. TikTok's potential for political manipulation raised concerns, leading to bipartisan support for the bill in Congress.
  3. The TikTok ban marks the end of an era in US-China tech relations, highlighting the complexities of balancing national security with commercial interests.

Sino-Soviet Split 2.0

370 implied HN points • 05 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Alliances Geopolitics Diplomacy
  1. The partnership between Russia and China may not be as strong as it seems, with a 75% chance of it collapsing due to differing views on separatism.
  2. China and Russia have different perspectives on separatism, with China focusing on maintaining territorial unity while Russia supports separatist movements in neighboring regions.
  3. The stability of the alliance between China and Russia is questionable, and smart diplomatic maneuvering by democracies can help exploit the ideological cracks between these two powerful autocracies.

Purges and the PLA: Corruption in the Ranks

874 implied HN points • 08 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Military Taiwan China
  1. Corruption within the Chinese military has led to major purges, affecting Xi Jinping's military actions.
  2. Predicting Xi Jinping's actions regarding Taiwan is difficult due to his secretive nature and complex decision-making process.
  3. Taiwan needs to focus on enhancing its defense capabilities with a balance of investments in munitions, technology, and strategic planning.
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Spring Festival Gala Review by Chinese Doom Scroll

429 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
🎭️ Culture Entertainment Music Comedy Traditions Dance
  1. Many people found the 2024 Spring Festival Gala to be enjoyable and a hit among the past few years' shows.
  2. The performances included a variety of acts showcasing traditional Chinese arts like drums, dancing, opera, martial arts, and folk songs.
  3. Despite some controversial comedy skits, overall the Gala featured high-quality, impressive performances and a mix of propaganda and entertainment.

Censorship’s Impact on China’s Chatbots

207 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
🕹 Technology AI Censorship Chatbots Research Regulation
  1. Chinese AI chatbots are subject to strict censorship by the Cyberspace Administration of China, affecting their responses to political questions.
  2. There is a noticeable tradeoff between content control and value alignment in Chinese chatbots, highlighting a balance between censorship and quality of output.
  3. Censorship in Chinese chatbots involves value alignment training and keyword filtering, showing how Chinese regulators influence the responses of AI models to favor Beijing's values.

TikTok, Congress Takes a Massive L on S&T Funding, AI Hardware Controls

177 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
🕹 Technology AI Technology Policy Artificial Intelligence
  1. Chinese tech founders, like Zhang Yiming, are more focused on global competition than spreading political ideology. They face challenges in a government-controlled environment but are driven by personal ambitions and past experiences.
  2. The U.S. Congress has made significant budget cuts to science and technology funding, jeopardizing the country's ability to compete with nations like China in emerging technologies such as AI and quantum computing.
  3. Implementing AI hardware controls offers enhanced security but may face challenges like vulnerability to circumvention, prolonged lead times in rollout, and broader considerations for governing compute power.

Debating China's Industrial Policy + Jordan in London

592 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Industrial Policy Economic Policy
  1. Industrial policy in China is a contentious issue, with supporters believing in state intervention for progress and critics arguing for a free market approach.
  2. The debate between economists Lin and Zhang reflects the tension in China's economic thinking on the role of the government versus the market.
  3. Xi Jinping's industrial policies are shaped by the Party's political will to surpass the West in GDP and technology, balancing between state intervention and market forces.

Taiwan vs. US Chip Subsidies: Bolstering the Sacred Mountain

192 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Semiconductors Incentives Manufacturing
  1. Taiwan allows companies to choose which technologies to invest in, unlike the US and South Korea which target specific areas to strengthen the supply chain.
  2. Taiwanese lawmakers grant significant discretion to government ministries in managing subsidies, in contrast to the US and EU where subsidies are tightly regulated.
  3. Taiwan's central government manages and funds the most significant incentive programs for the semiconductor industry, a strategy that reflects a commitment to enhancing existing strengths.

A Year in Books

326 implied HN points • 13 Feb 24
📚 Literature Biographies War Technology Strategy History
  1. Enjoyed using Audible and Voicedream app to power through a lot of text this year.
  2. Trended towards reading about war and technology rather than China books due to current events.
  3. Found 'The Social History of the Machine Gun' and 'Eye-Deep In Hell' insightful and impactful in understanding warfare.

AI Legislation Ideas, After Xi, Tweets of the Week, Weibo Doom Scroll

177 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Social Commentary Cultural analysis
  1. There's a push for AI legislation, where engaging in the legislative process can shape the future of policies.
  2. The succession plan after Xi Jinping in Chinese politics remains unclear and involves intricate power dynamics.
  3. Discussion around various societal topics in Chinese culture, like superstitions in housing and parenting practices.

Top 5 US-China Tech Stories

637 implied HN points • 04 Jan 24
🕹 Technology E-commerce EVs Semiconductors AI
  1. TikTok has defied early predictions of regulatory restrictions in the US due to vested interests and political dynamics.
  2. The splintering of cross-border VC firms like Sequoia and GGV Capital is a tangible impact of US-China relations.
  3. Chinese EVs are dominating globally, posing a challenge to traditional automakers and highlighting the US infrastructure gap.

Pottinger on Trump 2.0

296 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy National Security Bureaucracy Pandemic response
  1. What leaders say matters - whether it's during speeches or impulsive tweets, it's important to take them seriously.
  2. High-level engagement is crucial in US-China relations - having Presidents engage directly can ensure important messages are communicated.
  3. Strategic ambiguity in foreign policy may need to be revised - particularly in the context of US commitment to defend Taiwan.

Music from China: The Year That Was

533 implied HN points • 28 Dec 23
🎶 Music TV shows
  1. Chinese bands like Chinese Football toured overseas in 2023
  2. 河边走 The river, Orchestration, Walkman! embraced improvisation in their music
  3. bié Records released top compilations in 2023

Taiwan Election Results: How Lai won, what China thinks, and what’s at stake for the DPP

415 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Elections China Taiwan Cross-strait relations
  1. Current VP William Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party won the Taiwan presidential election with over 40% of the vote.
  2. The DPP lost control of the legislature in Taiwan's election, falling from 61 to 51 seats.
  3. The Taiwan election was a referendum on DPP governance and internal issues like population crisis, high real estate prices, and military conscription.

Can BIS Control the Cloud?

311 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Cloud Computing AI Regulation Privacy Concerns
  1. New proposed rules by Commerce focus on regulating US cloud providers to identify customers and monitor large AI training with potential risks.
  2. The regulations aim to prevent misuse of cloud services for cyber attacks and dangerous AI systems, using 'Know Your Customer' schemes.
  3. Enforcement measures include restrictions on customers or jurisdictions engaging in malicious cyber activities, with a focus on setting up reporting processes.

The Future of AI Diplomacy: Can The State Department Grok AI?

133 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Diplomacy Transparency Government National Security Data Analysis
  1. AI can enhance diplomacy by streamlining bureaucratic tasks, providing accurate data for negotiations, and improving analysis processes.
  2. Risk management in the State Department varies for different tasks: while tasks like HR and IT services can run faster to match the private sector, activities like foreign assistance and passport services require a higher burden due to their public impact.
  3. Strategic use of transparency can be a strength for the U.S. in diplomacy, as seen in the Biden administration's doctrine. Leveraging transparency internally and externally can have strategic advantages over closed societies.

India’s Chip War

148 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Semiconductors Manufacturing Software Design Globalization
  1. India excels in software and design but faces challenges in manufacturing semiconductors due to historical economic policies that hindered growth in hardware and manufacturing sectors.
  2. India's approach to semiconductor industry development differed from Taiwan and China, starting from the design end rather than electronics assembly, posing challenges due to lack of a broader electronics ecosystem and global integration.
  3. Software industry in India thrived due to less restrictive regulations compared to hardware industries like semiconductors heavily controlled under small-scale industry reservations, hindering growth in manufacturing sectors.

Rule of Law for All Under Heaven

163 implied HN points • 20 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Legal system
  1. Jiang Ping played a key role in shaping China's legal system, advocating for individual rights, and promoting the rule of law over the ruling of law.
  2. Jiang's life reflected the transition in China from 'rule by law' to 'rule of law,' emphasizing the importance of connecting laws to higher ideals like human rights and democratic governance.
  3. Jiang's passing symbolizes a struggle in China's legal world between the Party's control-oriented legal reforms and the more liberal intellectual strand that aimed for the rule of law.

EU Economic Security Can’t Come À la Carte

163 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics
  1. EU member states need to agree on a united policy for economic and technological security to be effectively guaranteed.
  2. The European Commission faces challenges in implementing economic-security policies due to complex legal and political powers shared with member states.
  3. Issues such as investment screening and export controls highlight the need for EU member states to provide Brussels with the necessary powers and resources for a cohesive economic security strategy.

Friday Bites: TLAMs, Vision Pro, What is the WSJ Thinking?

192 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
📰 News Politics Media Investigative Journalism
  1. The Navy's supply of TLAMs is limited and crucial for potential conflicts in the Pacific region.
  2. The Vision Pro technology has promising features but faces challenges with social integration and developer support.
  3. The Wall Street Journal's recent layoffs, including its US-China bureau, may hinder its ability to produce investigative reports on important global issues like US-PRC relations.

Does NVIDIA Have a Future in China? Can Huawei Take Jensen On?

163 implied HN points • 15 Feb 24
🕹 Technology AI Chips
  1. Chinese tech firms are diversifying their AI chip suppliers due to export controls on American chips, leading to opportunities for Chinese companies like Huawei.
  2. Nvidia faces challenges in China due to limitations on their AI chip supply, impacting their market share and customer relationships.
  3. The growth of Chinese new energy vehicles is driving demand for automotive-grade chips, with Nvidia holding a significant market share, but facing competition from domestic manufacturers and potential regulatory challenges.

Is the NSC Unwell?

207 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security Foreign Policy Bureaucracy
  1. The organizational design of the NSC leads to crushing burdens for midlevel and senior staffers.
  2. Working in government is demanding and takes a toll on health, thus requiring a steady influx of talent.
  3. National security decisions require trust-building among various stakeholders and can be uniquely challenging due to high stakes and limited bandwidth.

Matt Clifford: AI Policy + China Competition

74 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
📚 Literature Fiction History Philosophy Classic
  1. The Reformation teaches us monumental change can happen unexpectedly and for reasons that resonate today, like the rise of new technologies and ideas.
  2. Parenting and entrepreneurship create strategic focus due to the time trade-offs and the need to be intentional in decision-making.
  3. Ideas are powerful, exciting, and dangerous, shown through 'The Name of the Rose,' emphasizing the impact of forbidden knowledge and the significance of ideas worth killing for.

The Average Chinese City

652 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
🌐 International China Small Town Economy Education Culture
  1. Some of the top headlines from China reveal struggling economic situations post-zero-covid.
  2. Small cities like Baoji reflect challenges in China's economy with falling home prices and limited job prospects.
  3. Education in small-town China can be marketized, with families fighting for opportunities in local high schools.

Why Science Dominates China’s Political Culture

429 implied HN points • 09 Nov 23
🌍 World Politics China Political culture Nationalism Ideology
  1. Science is a national quest in China, driven by nationalism, with a focus on achieving technological advancement and international prestige.
  2. China's modernization history saw the concept of science elevated from a mere tool to a grand narrative that influences the evaluation of national power.
  3. The CCP's focus on science and technology as a central value raises questions about the impact of scientism on China's future progress and international relations.

Litho World & Commerce: Lost in Translation?

444 implied HN points • 01 Nov 23
🕹 Technology Tech Policy Export Controls
  1. The US and its allies are in a technology cold war with China over semiconductor capabilities.
  2. Export restrictions and regulations around lithography in semiconductors have led to misunderstandings between the Commerce Department and manufacturers.
  3. Recent export controls aim to restrict Chinese access to advanced technology, but loopholes and circumventions still exist.

Gallagher, Tweets of the Week, Weibo Doom Scroll

88 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
  1. Congress needs structural changes to align legislator incentives toward ambitious bipartisan bills instead of viral hits and TV appearances.
  2. The weakening of the legislative branch and the concentration of power at the top leads to dysfunction and disloyalty among members of Congress.
  3. There is a divide within Congress between authorizers and appropriators that contributes to dysfunction; aligning committees more closely with executive-branch oversight could lead to better productivity.

How ERNIE, China's ChatGPT, Cracks Under Pressure

459 implied HN points • 05 Sep 23
🕹 Technology AI Chatbot Ethics Language processing
  1. ERNIE filters out unsavory questions by making them impossible to type in or steering conversations away.
  2. ERNIE's proficiency in Chinese is strong, but it struggles with more complex prompts and may provide inaccurate information.
  3. ERNIE tends to copy-paste responses from 'trusted' sources when faced with prompts that could lead to non-permissible content.

Lessons from the Ultimate China Watcher: László Ladány

415 implied HN points • 02 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics China US Relations Media Landscape Communist Party Foreign Policy
  1. China watching methodology by Ladány emphasizes understanding CCP through Chinese-language sources.
  2. US media must improve by decoupling from biased reporting and analyzing China's primary source material.
  3. Improving US-China relations requires analyzing Chinese-language sources, fostering Mandarin expertise, and engaging with CCP narratives.