Comment is Freed

Comment is Freed, by Sam and Lawrence Freedman, focuses on providing in-depth analysis and commentary on global political events, policy analysis, and state affairs, with a significant focus on conflicts like the Russo-Ukraine War, tensions between Israel and Gaza, and Russian internal dynamics. It also explores election politics, strategies in conflicts, and broader geopolitical strategies.

Global Politics Policy Analysis Foreign Affairs Military Strategies Geopolitical Conflicts Election Politics Strategy and Tactics Government and Governance

The hottest Substack posts of Comment is Freed

And their main takeaways

Two steps backward

126 implied HN points • 01 Mar 25

Trump's meetings often feel like a drama, with him at the center trying to create the best storyline. If something isn’t working, he may just drop it and move on to another idea.
Dealing with real-world politics is tricky and can take a long time, unlike in a soap opera where things happen quickly. Negotiations involve many people who want their own say.
The U.S. administration's relationship with Ukraine can shift quickly, and the past week's discussions show a mix of friendly and tense moments.

Fault Lines

78 implied HN points • 27 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Conservative movement Global Politics Nationalism Authoritarianism

The CPAC event has evolved into a global gathering for right-wing leaders, with participants from many countries, showing a rise in nationalist movements worldwide.
Tension is growing between moderate and extreme factions within the right-wing movement, as seen with the response to controversial gestures and ideology.
Right-wing parties in Western Europe face challenges in balancing their base and broader electorate, which could lead to splits and conflicts within their ranks.

Die Linke is back

113 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Defense Elections Foreign Policy Political parties

Die Linke made a surprising comeback in the recent German elections, gaining more votes than expected. This shows that there is still a significant interest in their policies despite their historical challenges.
The new German government will need to figure out how to increase defense spending without going against the debt rules. This could be tricky and may require support from parties like Die Linke, which traditionally opposes higher military budgets.
There is a growing realization in Germany about the need for strong defense capabilities, especially after changes in U.S. foreign policy. This might lead to unusual alliances in politics as different parties look for solutions.

Europe's Moment of Truth

109 implied HN points • 22 Feb 25

🌍 World Politics International relations Conflict analysis Military Affairs Geopolitics

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is very important for Europe and needs careful analysis. It's crucial to rely on trustworthy sources and check what key players are saying to understand their priorities.
Conflicts evolve in stages, so it's not wise to make firm predictions about the future. Instead, it's better to explore possible developments based on the current situation.
Recent changes in U.S. support, especially Trump's comments about Zelensky, create uncertainty for Ukraine. This makes it vital to stay informed about how negotiations with Russia may influence future support.

Answering the wrong question

83 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Elections Political Ideologies Labour Party Public Opinion

Blue Labour is a movement that has connections with more conservative ideas, and some of its members have developed ties with figures from the Trump era. This blend of views is causing some controversy in UK politics.
The internal politics of the Labour Party are influenced by figures like Morgan McSweeney, who support Blue Labour's direction. This might indicate a shift in the party's strategy towards a more conservative audience.
There's concern that the language and ideas being spread by members of Blue Labour could push traditional Labour supporters away. It raises questions about what direction the party should really take to stay true to its roots.

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Putin's weak spot?

92 implied HN points • 16 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Negotiations Economics Military Leadership

Peace talks between key leaders are starting, but Ukraine's concerns are being overlooked. They're worried that negotiations might not prioritize their interests.
Putin appears to want a victory in negotiations but is only being offered a draw. This creates tension as the goals of Russia and the US don’t fully align.
The state of Russia's economy is fragile due to the ongoing war, which could influence Putin's decisions in peace talks. He might seek a favorable deal now while the US administration is somewhat supportive.

Technology vs Democracy

123 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Federal Policy Election Dynamics Media influence Political Ideology Government Structure

Elon Musk has gained significant influence in Trump's administration, compared to his lack of support during Trump's first term. This shift has raised concerns about the impact on government and democratic processes.
There are serious worries about the constitutional implications of Musk's involvement in government. Courts are starting to react, but many changes could be harmful before any legal decisions are made.
Musk's actions and the ideology behind them are confusing to traditional political systems. New internet culture is impacting politics in ways that make it hard for older generations to understand what's happening.

Congo's Curse

80 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25

🌍 World Politics Conflict Colonialism Resources Governance Intervention

The Democratic Republic of Congo is rich in natural resources, but its wealth is not benefiting its people. Instead, many live in poverty while corrupt leaders and foreign powers exploit the country.
The idea of the 'resource curse' explains how having lots of valuable resources can lead to more conflict and bad governance. In places like Congo, greed often outweighs the needs of the people.
Rwanda's role in the conflict in Congo is complicated, as it backs rebel groups for its own interests. This has created a cycle of violence and instability that continues to affect the region today.

Can Labour Fix the NHS?

92 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25

🏥 Health Politics Healthcare Policy Government Economics

Labour needs to improve the economy and the NHS to win a second term. If people feel better financially and notice changes in healthcare, that would help their chances.
Although Labour has increased the NHS budget, the challenges are much greater now. The NHS is struggling with long waiting lists and a demoralized workforce.
The government aims to shift focus from hospital care to prevention and community health, but they often do the opposite. Past strategies haven't worked, and they need to really commit to a new approach.

Answering your questions

54 implied HN points • 09 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Legislation Political parties International relations Public Policy

There's a lot of confusion in U.S. politics, making it hard for opposition parties to work together against leaders like Trump or Musk. Without a single leader, responses can be slow and ineffective.
Legal challenges are being used to push back against controversial actions taken by Trump and Musk. Courts are blocking some of their orders, but legal battles often take time, and problems can arise in the meantime.
In the UK, there's a concern about future leaders gaining too much control. It’s important for political parties and civil servants to think ahead and prepare for any potential threats to democracy.

Trump vs. the Law

106 implied HN points • 26 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Democracy Law Elections Governance Populism

Democracy in America is at risk if Trump makes permanent changes to its structure. His actions might affect how future elections and governance work.
There’s a real fear of a shift toward a system similar to Hungary, where leaders gain power using media control and different election rules.
Some wealthy Americans and media outlets are supporting Trump, which could make it harder for normal government functions to operate and discourage open debate.

How Can Ukraine's Security Be Guaranteed?

86 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25

🌍 World Politics International relations Security Studies European Politics Conflict resolution Defense Policy

Security guarantees are important for protecting vulnerable nations like Ukraine from aggression. They help reassure those nations that allies will come to their aid if needed.
Ukraine's past experiences, like the Budapest Memorandum, make them skeptical about security promises. When international support was needed, Ukraine found itself largely abandoned.
To truly deter future aggression, Ukraine needs strong commitments from NATO or a substantial multinational force. This could help prevent another attack and show that the international community stands with Ukraine.

The Beginning of the End?

103 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Trump administration Negotiations Military conflict International relations

There is now a serious push to negotiate peace in the Russo-Ukraine War, which was not happening before. This new effort could change how both sides approach the conflict.
Trump's administration might act as a mediator to help Ukraine and Russia talk directly. The success of these talks will likely depend on how much compromise each side is willing to make.
The immediate goal of the negotiations might be to achieve a ceasefire, as a full peace deal could take much longer to work out. The underlying issues, especially regarding Ukraine's independence, will still need to be addressed later.

Can the decline of two-party politics be reversed?

53 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Democracy Government Trust Party Politics

Many people are losing faith in big political parties, and this is happening not just in one country but around the world.
The current electoral system isn't helping this situation, as it can lead to low support for the winning party, making the government seem less legitimate.
There's a need to explore how different voting systems might help rebuild trust in democracy and make majoritarian governments work better.

Tax Policy: Breaking the Impasse

93 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Tax policy Political Reform Government Structure Policy Analysis

Tax reform in the UK is really hard because changes lead to public outrage, making it tough for politicians to make sensible decisions. Politicians often focus on how changes will be viewed rather than on what makes sense.
The current tax system is too complicated and has become a way to solve a variety of issues, leading to confusion and resistance. There needs to be a clearer and simpler approach to tax policy that takes all aspects into account.
Creating a separate office for tax policy could help develop better ideas and solutions without getting caught up in daily politics. This could support governments in making more informed decisions about tax reform.

The Court of Trump

69 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political strategy Governance Political Figures Party Dynamics

Trump often says things that confuse people, making it hard to know what he really means. This can cause chaos in politics and business.
His team is often divided, with people competing for Trump's attention rather than working together. This creates a lot of turnover and instability.
The people around Trump can greatly influence his decisions and policies, so it's important to watch those relationships to understand future conflicts.

Will Reform Kill the Tory Party?

109 implied HN points • 05 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political parties Elections Political Analysis Leadership Public Opinion

The current political landscape shows a lack of confidence in the Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch, with people even betting on Nigel Farage as a potential Prime Minister candidate. This reflects a growing dissatisfaction within the party.
Reform Party has gained attention with some wins in local elections and defections from former Tory MPs, suggesting they may become a more serious competitor against the Tories.
The Tory Party is facing increased pressure and vulnerability, especially among younger voters, making it possible for another party to challenge their position as the main party on the right.

Coping with Trump

77 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Diplomacy Governance Political parties

Allies of the U.S. found it tough to deal with Trump during his first term, facing challenges in asserting their values against his right-wing stance.
The relationship between Trump and leaders like Merkel showed a clash of confidence, with leaders trying to stand firm against his policies.
Currently, due to changing global circumstances, allies are likely to take a less confrontational approach if Trump returns to power.

Labour and the challenge of coherence

81 implied HN points • 12 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political theory Governance Public Policy Political parties Elections

The Labour party is struggling to make progress in government, facing frustrations from both members and leadership. This has been made tougher by external challenges like fiscal issues and global tensions.
Keir Starmer, the leader, prefers practical decision-making over deep philosophical discussions, but this can hinder a clear direction for governance. Without guiding principles, it's hard for his team to make confident decisions.
There's a lot of activity within the government, but it lacks a coherent strategy. Different departments may have conflicting agendas, which can lead to confusion and ineffective use of resources.

The Third Anniversary Post

96 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25

🎭️ Culture Family Media Communication Philosophy Personal Growth

The substack started as a fun project between a father and son. They didn't expect it to become such an important part of their lives.
They didn't have a clear plan when they began. Over time, they developed a philosophy about what they wanted to do.
The experience has been surprising and rewarding as they've connected with many people through their writing.

The Audit: 2024

132 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Campaign Strategy Public Policy

It's important to review past predictions to see what worked and what didn't. This practice helps improve future insights and keeps one accountable.
Analyzing elections at a detailed level, like looking at specific councils or seats, can provide more accurate predictions. This method shows the need to understand local issues better.
Finding positive trends in difficult situations can be tough but necessary. It's good to challenge a negative mindset and look for hope in the community.

Ask us your questions

21 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Current Events Public Policy International relations Political Commentary

New subscribers are welcomed and encouraged to ask questions about any topics discussed. It's a great way to engage with the content.
Recent topics covered include British politics, U.S. issues, and the situation in Ukraine, highlighting specific challenges and events.
Subscribers can choose to submit their questions either publicly in the comments or anonymously via email for a response later.

End of Year Review: the Russo-Ukraine War

99 implied HN points • 29 Dec 24

🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Conflict analysis International relations Military Strategy Diplomacy

The Russo-Ukraine War is a prolonged conflict with no clear solution in sight. Both sides are struggling with ongoing military challenges and the need to adapt strategies.
Ukraine continues to resist despite facing tough circumstances, while Russia shows urgency in its operations but has faced significant casualties. There's a conversation about whether Russia can sustain its fighting force in the long term.
US support for Ukraine has been mixed, with concerns about military aid and restrictions on how it can be used. This might affect Ukraine's chances of a successful outcome, especially if the leadership changes.

End of Year Review: the Middle East

56 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25

🌍 World Politics Middle East Conflict Diplomacy International relations Security

The Middle East situation has been changing rapidly, especially with Iran's influence weakening and challenges faced by groups like Hamas and the Assad regime in Syria.
Israel's strategy in the Gaza conflict has faced many criticisms, particularly for not clearly defining what victory looks like and for the high civilian casualty rates due to its military approaches.
With leadership changes expected, particularly with Trump returning, the future of Israel-Palestine relations and Iran's stability could shift, bringing new challenges and potential for conflict.

Books of the Year 2024

106 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24

📚 Literature Book Reviews Non-fiction History Biographies Fiction

A lot of great books cover history, politics, and economics. These can provide deeper insights into current events and help in understanding systems that shape our lives.
Biographies shed light on important historical figures and their influences, bringing personal stories into larger political and social contexts.
Translations of classic literature make ancient stories accessible and relatable, reminding us of timeless truths about human experiences.

We're going to need a bigger Bazooka

138 implied HN points • 23 Nov 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Market Reaction

Britain's economy has struggled to grow since the 2008 crisis, leading to lower living standards and less effective public services. This shows how important economic growth is for improving people's lives.
The government has ambitious plans for growth but is facing challenges due to tight financial constraints and investor skepticism. They need to change how investors view the UK to encourage more private investment.
To achieve real economic change, the government needs to adopt bigger, bolder strategies, especially in areas that directly link to growth, like transportation projects.

Politics vs Policy

101 implied HN points • 07 Dec 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Government Public Opinion Elections Political strategy

There is often a gap between expert solutions and what the public actually wants. This can create confusion and paralysis in government decisions.
Policy changes in areas like taxation and climate change can be very unpopular, making it tough for leaders to make bold moves.
Voters generally prefer to avoid controversial debates, which can limit the effectiveness of expert advice on important issues.

The definition of madness

112 implied HN points • 30 Nov 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Government spending Public Administration

Governments often miss problems because they focus too narrowly on specific issues, ignoring bigger trends. This makes it hard to spot similar mistakes across different areas of policy.
When the government tries to cut support in one area, it often leads to increased demand for even more expensive services elsewhere. For example, reducing GP appointments has pushed more people to hospital emergency services.
Fixing these problems is tough because once people adapt to new habits, changing them back is hard. To really improve services, governments need to think more broadly and learn from past mistakes.

The Wrong Sort of Power

73 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24

🌍 World Politics Middle East Autocracies Foreign Policy Geopolitics

The 1979 Iranian Revolution set off events that may lead to more revolutions in the region. People are wondering if the current Iranian government could be next to face a challenge.
The fall of the Assad regime in Syria seemed surprising but was also expected by some. The future of Syria is uncertain, and things will definitely change from now on.
Iran and Russia are major losers after their support for Assad. They invested a lot of time and resources but are now facing setbacks in their influence over the Middle East.

Beyond Deterrence

98 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24

🌍 World Politics International relations Security Studies Diplomacy Conflict resolution Nuclear policy

Deterrence has been a major concept in defense strategy, especially during the Cold War. It suggests that showing strength can prevent aggression from others.
However, relying solely on deterrence can be tricky. Sometimes threats are not taken seriously, and it might not work in every situation.
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine illustrates that a mix of deterrence strategies, like denying enemy advantages, is now more important as new forms of threats continue to arise.

Dropping Out

125 implied HN points • 16 Nov 24

🚌 Education School Policy Parental involvement Mental health

England's schools have greatly improved over the last few decades, becoming some of the best in Europe. This success is partly due to effective policies and the integration of immigrant students.
However, since the pandemic, schools have faced serious challenges with increased behavior issues and poor attendance among students. Many children are missing more classes, leading to worries that they might drop out.
To sustain the progress in school standards, the government needs a focused approach that addresses the interconnected issues of attendance, behavior, and mental health. Otherwise, the gains made in education could be lost.

What does Trump's win mean for the world?

131 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Analysis International relations Government Structure Foreign Policy Trade policy

Trump's presidency might lean towards nationalism and isolationism. This could challenge established alliances like NATO and impact international cooperation.
Expect unpredictability in Trump's upcoming administration, with potential government restructuring and a focus on unilateral decisions. This may lead to issues in the usual functioning of government.
Trump's approach to foreign conflicts, especially in Ukraine and the Middle East, could shift, leading to concerns among allies about U.S. support and stability in those regions.

Can Trump get a deal on Ukraine?

91 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Foreign Policy National Security Immigration Bipartisanship

Trump might push for a deal with Ukraine, but it could favor Putin more than Ukraine itself. This raises concerns for European allies who depend on Ukraine's resistance against Russia.
Ukraine is not a top priority for Trump, as his main focus lies on domestic issues like immigration, taxes, and trade with China. His administration may not have clear plans for Ukraine yet.
If Trump is unable to secure a peace deal, there are questions about how much support he will continue to offer Ukraine. This uncertainty creates worries for Ukraine's future security and recovery.

Can Trump do a deal with Iran?

68 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Diplomacy Middle East Conflict Government Elections

A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah offers a chance for better relations in the Middle East. This could lead to discussions about Gaza and possibly Israel recognizing Saudi Arabia.
There is a possibility of talks between the U.S. and Iran, especially if Trump can position himself as a deal-maker. However, the complex history and current tensions make this challenging.
Trump's approach to the Palestinian situation might not align with desires for full Palestinian rights. Normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia and Israel could depend on addressing these concerns.

How the value divide is challenging Britain's two-party system

45 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Elections Party Dynamics Voter Behavior

The recent UK election showed a split in voter values, making it harder for traditional parties like Labour and Conservatives to win purely by appealing to the center.
The two main parties received their lowest combined vote percentage ever, indicating a rise in other groups like Reform UK and the Greens.
This shift suggests that British politics might be moving towards a more diverse system with multiple parties instead of just two big ones.

Buying Time

93 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24

💰 Finance Economics Government Forecasting Spending Budgeting

The government is trying to slow down a financial crisis by making tough choices, but this is just a temporary fix. They've had to reverse some tax cuts and allow for more borrowing.
The previous government's budget projections were unrealistic, leading to anger and concerns about how much spending was really needed. Many departments are facing serious issues.
Despite these reversals, the government doesn't have much time left to make the situation better. They're in a tough spot and need to find new ways to improve the economy.

Answering your questions

64 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Parties Policy Democracy International relations

The Republican party seems to have shifted away from traditional establishment figures, with MAGA and Trump influencing their direction. Future candidates may be more conventional but still lean to the right.
Democrats are facing challenges with key voter demographics, especially Latino men, and they might need to nominate someone who can connect with these groups in future elections.
Both the US and UK are dealing with the implications of Trump's influence on politics, particularly regarding relationships with Europe and international cooperation.

Failure in the Sahel

68 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24

🌍 World Politics International relations Military Strategy Geopolitical analysis Conflict resolution

The Sahel region is experiencing deep instability due to power struggles among armed groups and ineffective governance. This has left many communities feeling unsafe and seeking protection on their own.
Russia has been stepping in where France failed, offering military support to various Sahel countries. However, their tactics have led to increased violence and civilian casualties.
External interventions often struggle when host governments lack commitment and support from their people. Success in the Sahel would require better governance and stability rather than just military force.

Your guide to watching the US election

63 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Voting Political Analysis

Polls are hard to trust this election because they might be missing certain groups of voters. Some people who usually don’t vote are expected to show up but are less likely to answer polls.
Different states have different rules for counting votes, which can make it tricky to know the results quickly. Some states can count early votes before polls close, while others cannot.
US exit polls are often not very helpful for predicting results. Unlike the UK, they don’t provide clear insight into voting intentions and motivations.

War in the AI age

39 implied HN points • 10 Nov 24

🕹 Technology AI Warfare Ethics Innovation Society

AI is changing how wars are fought, especially with advanced technologies like drones. This creates new strategies and challenges for countries.
The power of AI, especially large language models, is growing rapidly. This shift can change what it means to be human and how we interact with technology.
AI could change negotiations and decision-making by providing vast knowledge and strategies. This might lead to heightened tensions, as AI could decide that conflict is the best solution.