Comment is Freed

Comment is Freed, by Sam and Lawrence Freedman, focuses on providing in-depth analysis and commentary on global political events, policy analysis, and state affairs, with a significant focus on conflicts like the Russo-Ukraine War, tensions between Israel and Gaza, and Russian internal dynamics. It also explores election politics, strategies in conflicts, and broader geopolitical strategies.

Global Politics Policy Analysis Foreign Affairs Military Strategies Geopolitical Conflicts Election Politics Strategy and Tactics Government and Governance

The hottest Substack posts of Comment is Freed

And their main takeaways

The Truth About Integration

114 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Integration Education Immigration Policy Social Issues
  1. Integration challenges in the UK are being addressed successfully through education, leading to positive outcomes in academic performance and assimilation for immigrant communities.
  2. The UK stands out in Europe for immigrant students' academic success, suggesting the impact of education on integration is significant.
  3. Education plays a key role in reducing segregation over time, as seen in the increasing diversity in neighborhoods and schools, signaling progress towards greater integration.

Hiding from reality

118 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Government Budget Campaigning Policy
  1. The post criticizes politicians for hiding the truth about budget projections and making unrealistic spending promises.
  2. It highlights the disconnect between political parties' actions and the concerns of voters, emphasizing the importance of holding politicians accountable.
  3. Rather than focusing on superficial details, the post encourages in-depth analysis of proposed spending to ensure transparency and truthfulness in political discussions.

What if Trump Wins?

66 implied HN points • 16 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Defense International relations Security
  1. There is a growing concern about the international situation, specifically due to challenges in Ukraine, militarization in Russia, and tensions with Iran and China.
  2. There is a debate about increasing defense spending in the UK to address urgent security needs, but economic conditions and political decisions are factors affecting this.
  3. Europe is considering how to cope with the potential return of Donald Trump to power after the next US presidential elections, with uncertainties around polls, legal cases, and candidate health.

Putin and Beyond

78 implied HN points • 10 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Russia Election Power Dynamics Foreign Policy
  1. Putin's recent address showed his confidence and focus on growing Russia's power and influence in the world.
  2. Putin's long-standing goal has been to retain power and shape Russia's future, with plans extending up to 2030.
  3. Putin aimed to modernize Russia's economy and state power, steering away from the Soviet model.

The two state solution: an idea whose time has come?

79 implied HN points • 02 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Peace process
  1. The two-state solution is gaining international support as the preferred resolution for the Israel-Palestine conflict, even if challenges remain in the path to achieving it.
  2. Historically, efforts towards a two-state solution have faced obstacles such as disagreements over Jerusalem control and refugee rights.
  3. The aftermath of recent conflicts in the region has highlighted the urgency for immediate actions to address relief, reconstruction, governance, and security in Gaza before moving towards long-term peace negotiations.
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Fifty years of putting off the inevitable

102 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
💰 Finance Government spending Taxation Education
  1. Jeremy Hunt may announce a tax cut that is not financially sustainable and could be misleading.
  2. The UK's tax burden is lower compared to other countries, partly due to lower spending on social programs.
  3. The UK's low tax burden is also a result of reduced spending on working age benefits, uniquely high housing benefit expenditure, and underinvestment in infrastructure.

The Forgotten Wars

87 implied HN points • 24 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Africa Refugees International relations
  1. Wars in Africa, like the one in Tigray, are often overlooked by the international community despite their significant humanitarian impact and high death tolls.
  2. Ethiopia and Sudan have complex histories of conflicts, rooted in ethnic tensions and political power struggles, leading to ongoing wars and humanitarian crises.
  3. The lack of attention from global powers and media coverage contributes to the prolonged suffering in these war-torn regions, highlighting the need for more diplomatic efforts and accountability for war crimes.

What do Conservative voters really think about immigration?

54 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Immigration Public Opinion AI Research
  1. Concern about immigration among Conservative voters has fluctuated over the years, showing a recent increase largely attributed to attention from right-wing politicians and media.
  2. Labour voters are more likely to be directly affected by immigration due to demographics, contrary to expectations. This dynamic impacts how policymakers should approach the issue.
  3. Misunderstanding public opinion on immigration could lead to harmful policy decisions. Better insight is crucial to avoid unnecessary or damaging stances.

Violence in the Middle East

85 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Middle East Conflict Leadership Military tactics International relations
  1. Violence in the Middle East continues to persist with targeted killings and tit-for-tat exchanges between various factions.
  2. Both Israel and the US believe in weakening their adversaries by targeting and eliminating their leaders, but this strategy may not result in long-term success as groups have sufficient support and structures to carry on.
  3. The situation in the Middle East, particularly in relation to Iran, involves complex dynamics with concerns about nuclear capabilities, succession planning, and the influence of proxies in ongoing conflicts.

Ukraine: Through the Gloom

116 implied HN points • 23 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Ukraine Conflict
  1. Narratives of Ukrainian or Russian victories in the Russo-Ukraine War often swing dramatically, leading to unpredictability in the conflict.
  2. Ukraine faces challenges like ammunition shortages, worn-out troops, and waning international support amidst the ongoing war.
  3. The US aid package is crucial for Ukraine's defense, as the disparity in munitions could impact the outcome of the war.

Record Breakers

56 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Conservatives
  1. The recent by-elections have shown significant swings from Conservatives to Labour, with record-breaking numbers indicating a tough time for the Conservatives.
  2. The rise of the Reform party is impacting the Conservatives, pulling away voters who are dissatisfied with the government but hesitant to support traditional mainstream parties.
  3. Green Party votes are proving to be more resilient and less susceptible to being squeezed by other center-left parties, potentially affecting Labour in the long run.

The Politics of Envy?

69 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
  1. Labour is considering putting VAT on private school fees as a way to raise funds, despite their overall cautious approach.
  2. Public opinion generally supports the idea of putting VAT on private school fees, even among Conservative voters.
  3. The proposal aims to raise money for the public sector without criticizing parents who choose private schools.

Israel/Gaza: Retrospect and Prospect

130 implied HN points • 07 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Middle East International relations Peace process
  1. The conflict between Israel and Hamas remains unresolved, with challenges in reaching lasting peace deals.
  2. There are divisions within the Israeli government on how to handle the situation, including differing views on the future of Gaza and the Palestinian Authority's role.
  3. Efforts from external parties, like the US, Europeans, and Arab states, are crucial in addressing the complexities of the Israel-Gaza conflict and finding potential solutions.

The 2nd Anniversary Post

138 implied HN points • 03 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics UK politics US Politics Ukraine conflict International relations
  1. The subscription price will be going up soon, so it's a good idea to sign up now to lock in the current rate.
  2. In 2024, there will be a lot of focus on politics and elections on both sides of the Atlantic.
  3. The content will cover a variety of topics like policy issues, polling techniques, and global elections, with guest interviews to provide diverse perspectives.

The Rise of Reform

56 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Conservatives Political Impact
  1. Labour's lead over the Conservatives has remained steady at 20 points, with both parties experiencing a slight decrease in support.
  2. The Reform party has experienced a rise in popularity, moving from an average of 6% to 10%, posing a potential challenge to the Conservatives.
  3. The upcoming by-election in Wellingborough may provide insight into the Reform party's impact on politics and its potential growth in the future.

For King and Country

70 implied HN points • 04 Feb 24
  1. A YouGov poll showed that a significant number of under-40s would refuse to serve in the army during a world war.
  2. There are concerns about the readiness and size of the British Army in the face of potential threats, especially from Russia.
  3. Debates around war and conscription, like the one in 1933, continue to be relevant in current discussions about national defense and military preparedness.

What should Ukraine do next?

130 implied HN points • 29 Nov 23
🌍 World Politics Ukraine Russia Conflict Military Sanctions
  1. Ukraine needs to prepare for a long war and focus on strengthening its position for the future.
  2. Putin wants substantive political concessions from Ukraine and may prefer a prolonged conflict over a quick resolution.
  3. Ukraine should be ready for ongoing fighting, retaliation strategies, and potential threats to critical infrastructure.

The Audit: 2023

92 implied HN points • 20 Dec 23
🌍 World Politics Elections Political trends Lessons
  1. Predictions at seat/council/state level need a close look at both local issues and changing demographics.
  2. Focus on UK politics can make analysis parochial, missing wider global trends.
  3. Avoid immediate 'post-game' commentary on political events unless having specific insights.

Election Round-Up: January

48 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
  1. The YouGov MRP showed a Labour majority of 120, waking up Tory MPs and media to the scale of their challenges.
  2. MRPs like YouGov's use complex methods, taking large samples, breaking them down by demographics to make predictions but exact methodology is not fully transparent.
  3. There can be significant differences in predictions between MRPs from different pollsters due to methodology variations like handling undecided voters and accounting for tactical voting.

Hamas attacks Israel

204 implied HN points • 08 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Conflict Diplomacy Middle East Military International relations
  1. Hamas attacks on Israel were well planned and orchestrated, not impulsive responses to recent events.
  2. Israel is facing political backlash and may form an emergency unity government with opposition parties for support.
  3. The conflict with Hamas poses challenges for Israel in terms of security, containment, and potential involvement of other groups like Hezbollah.

The Top Ten Books on British Politics

82 implied HN points • 09 Dec 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Biographies Policy Communications Political Humor
  1. The list provides a variety of book recommendations on British politics, including biographies, histories, and memoirs.
  2. The books cover a wide range of topics from British political figures to the impact of policies on the welfare state.
  3. The post also highlights the importance of personal reflections and honesty in political diaries and memoirs to gain insights into politicians and civil servants.

Escaping North Korea

34 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
  1. The documentary 'Beyond Utopia' follows people trying to escape from North Korea with intense footage of their conditions.
  2. The film features Pastor Seungeun Kim and two attempted defections, showing both happy and sad outcomes.
  3. The filmmakers initially planned to focus on Hyeonseo Lee but changed the narrative to include the Roh family's dangerous journey.

Running on Empty

102 implied HN points • 11 Nov 23
🌍 World Politics Government Elections Legislation Public Opinion
  1. Tory MPs' hope of electoral success is fading due to lack of impactful strategies and content.
  2. Legislative programs are light in the last year of government, focusing on creating 'dividing lines' for the election campaign.
  3. Labour is not engaging in creating dividing lines, suffocating the government's political strategy.

Prigozhin's Mutiny

305 implied HN points • 24 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics Russian Politics Military conflict
  1. Putin's authority in Russia is being directly challenged by Yevgeny Prigozhin, potentially impacting the regime and the war.
  2. Prigozhin's mutiny reveals tensions within Russia's military leadership and dissatisfaction with the conduct of the war.
  3. The outcome of Prigozhin's actions, whether he succeeds or fails, will have significant implications for the Russian regime and the ongoing conflict.

The Election No One Wants to Talk About

74 implied HN points • 03 Dec 23
  1. Theresa May's unexpected election outcome in 2017 taught the importance of being cautious with polling data.
  2. The UK MRP model was accurate in predicting the election results at a constituency level.
  3. Lessons from the 2017 election, such as the impact of campaigns, were ignored and led to strategic mistakes in subsequent elections.

Rishi finally makes a choice

92 implied HN points • 13 Nov 23
🌍 World Politics Political strategy
  1. Rishi Sunak finally made a choice between two political strategies.
  2. Sunak shifted to Track A, emphasizing a focus on traditional Tory values and policies.
  3. The Prime Minister's team is aiming to save vulnerable seats by appealing to certain voter groups.

There are always choices

82 implied HN points • 19 Nov 23
💾 History Decision-making Leaders Historical Analysis
  1. History is shaped by the choices individuals make, especially during times of crisis
  2. While big impersonal forces like demography and geography matter, individuals in positions of power play a significant role in making crucial decisions
  3. It is important to understand the constraints and possibilities before individuals when analyzing historical events

American Grand Strategy, Realism, and the Russo-Ukraine War

167 implied HN points • 03 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics International Conflict Strategy Alliance Support
  1. Putin aims to keep the Russo-Ukraine War going until 2025, hoping for a change in US leadership.
  2. There is a debate in the US about the support for Ukraine and the focus on Pacific versus Atlantic strategic priorities.
  3. Realism in foreign policy involves assessing the situation practically, considering interests, and making grounded decisions.