The hottest Economy Substack posts right now

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The lies we tell ourselves

Known Unknowns • 275 implied HN points • 03 Apr 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Interest rates may not return to normal, so be cautious. Collective DC plans might not be as ideal as they seem.
  2. Don't expect a recession to automatically solve inflation issues; it may not work as expected.
  3. Inflation brings uncertainty, making high real yields essential, and planning for Social Security reforms could involve risky collective DC plans.

Everything's Fine.

News Items • 275 implied HN points • 27 Sep 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. Many voters are struggling financially, with dwindling savings and rising loan costs.
  2. Cultural issues will likely play a significant role in the 2024 presidential campaign.
  3. The economic environment for most Americans is challenging, signaling a coming storm.

Daily Chartbook #268

Daily Chartbook • 1493 implied HN points • 29 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Tender rejections in the freight market are at a 6-month high.
  2. High yield default rate could reach 6% due to the strong uptrend in defaults.
  3. Households' interest payments are increasing as a share of disposable income.

How I destroyed the New Economy, revisited

Sundman figures it out! • 137 implied HN points • 04 Feb 24
💼 Business Economy
  1. Dave Karpf's essay examines the techno-optimism surrounding the dot-com and crypto bubbles.
  2. The author recalls building a house for an internet billionaire on a potentially cursed Native American burial ground.
  3. The collapse of the New Economy bubble is attributed to building the house in a place where it shouldn't have been built.
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Daily Chartbook #252

Daily Chartbook • 1545 implied HN points • 05 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. The median home sale price increased by 3.2% from a year earlier, reaching $380,250.
  2. Monthly mortgage payments for the typical U.S. homebuyer increased by 19% to $2,605 compared to a year earlier.
  3. The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index rose to -0.90 in July from -1.14 in June.

Daily Chartbook #271

Daily Chartbook • 1467 implied HN points • 01 Sep 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Median home sale price increased by 4.8% in the four weeks ending August 27, the biggest jump since October.
  2. Active listings saw an 18.7% drop from a year earlier, the largest decline since February 2022.
  3. Employers cut 75k jobs in August, marking a 267% increase from a year ago.

Top Links 582 The EU-US divergence. Climate adaptation. Consuming Baghdad. Class is not a thing its a happening.

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. There's a noticeable difference between how the EU and US are handling policies and strategies. This divergence affects various areas like trade and climate issues.
  2. As climate change impacts increase, there's a growing need for effective adaptation strategies to deal with these changes. Communities worldwide are developing plans to better cope with climate impacts.
  3. The concept of class is evolving; it's seen more as a dynamic process influenced by current events rather than a fixed social status. This view can change our understanding of social structures.

The UK’s trade after Brexit…

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 17 Feb 26
🌐 International Economy
  1. Tariffs and new paperwork between the UK and the EU sharply cut UK goods exports. Exports fell roughly 0.4% per month and about 40% cumulatively.
  2. Other countries redirected imports away from the UK, so EU total imports stayed stable while UK importers faced higher prices and lower supply and UK exporters were stranded.
  3. Even a large economy like the US can be bypassed, so broad US tariffs could similarly hurt American firms as trading partners find alternatives; services trade is much less affected by goods tariffs.

Daily Chartbook #281

Daily Chartbook • 1414 implied HN points • 16 Sep 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. US home prices rose 3% year over year to $420,846 in August.
  2. Total number of homes for sale hit a record low in August, dropping 1.1% month over month.
  3. Nearly 60,000 home-purchase agreements were canceled in August, up from a year earlier.

2034 – A Day in the Working Life

Workforce Futurist by Andy Spence • 488 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
💼 Business Economy
  1. In 2034, people have a Lifelong Learning Wallet to improve their skills without the burden of debt. This allows everyone to access education based on their abilities, not their financial situation.
  2. Work has become flexible and collaborative, with projects matching people's skills and interests. Workers earn digital tokens for their contributions, which helps them feel more connected and motivated.
  3. Society now values all contributions, including care work, and uses technology to fairly distribute resources. This new system supports faster solutions to pressing issues like climate change and health crises.

Daily Chartbook #260

Daily Chartbook • 1493 implied HN points • 17 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Mortgage purchase applications decrease, showing minimal demand
  2. Housing starts rise, with single-family starts at a high and multi-family starts at a low
  3. Building permits increase slightly, with single-family permits at a high and multi-family permits at a low

Daily Chartbook #267

Daily Chartbook • 1441 implied HN points • 26 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Pending home sales rose slightly in July, but still below pre-pandemic levels.
  2. Median home sale price increased in July due to limited housing supply.
  3. High mortgage rates are leading to a decrease in housing supply.

Daily Chartbook #248

Daily Chartbook • 1493 implied HN points • 01 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Zillow expects U.S. home prices to rise 6.3% between June 2023 and June 2024.
  2. Zillow's rent index indicates a sharp decline in rent prices ahead.
  3. Resuming student loan payments in October will decrease consumer spending by about $9 billion per month.

Did the debt ceiling deal really save the US from bankruptcy?

Geopolitical Economy Report • 259 implied HN points • 25 Jun 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. The US's debt situation is a small part of the global debt puzzle, with rising interest rates creating challenges not only for the US but also for poorer countries dependent on dollar debt.
  2. The debt deal exacerbates the unproductive nature of debt as it has been used to replace income for individuals and constrain companies from expansion and investment in productive capacity.
  3. The financial system will face challenges including declining value of US treasuries impacting banking system resilience, inflation persisting, and US dollar losing hegemony due to rising debt and market liquidity issues.

The Big Bond Week

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 137 implied HN points • 27 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economy
  1. The FOMC meeting and the Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement are key events affecting policy and market reactions.
  2. Investors are closely watching for details on rate cuts, balance sheet reduction, and labor conditions.
  3. The upcoming employment report could impact policy decisions, especially in relation to labor demand and supply.

Top Links 563 Trump and the world economy. Why the energy transition might be cheaper than we think. Protracted war in the Philippines.

Chartbook • 429 implied HN points • 17 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. Trump's decisions can greatly affect the world economy. It's important to understand how political actions influence global markets.
  2. Transitioning to clean energy might be more affordable than many believe. New technologies and strategies can help lower costs.
  3. The ongoing conflict in the Philippines is complex and has lasting implications. It shows how prolonged wars can affect both local and international stability.

The Last Flight on Mars.

News Items • 137 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
💼 Business Economy
  1. The US economy outperformed China's in 2023, showing strong growth post-pandemic.
  2. Consumer spending in the US prevented a recession in 2023, with the economy growing 3.1%.
  3. Chinese leaders are taking urgent measures to revive the economy, showing concerns about economic stability.

A Mentality To Build in Saudi Arabia

Christopher’s Newsletter • 255 implied HN points • 16 Feb 23
🌐 International Economy
  1. In Saudi Arabia, there is a mentality to build from the bottom up by locals with a great stake in outcomes.
  2. The focus is on talent being unleashed across cities and villages, with a commitment to change and progress.
  3. The shift towards a mentality to build is evident not just in big cities but also in small communities, emphasizing long-term commitment and involvement of locals.

Globalism is, in fact, Regionalism?

Christopher’s Newsletter • 255 implied HN points • 16 May 23
💼 Business Economy
  1. Globalism is more regional than we may think, with the majority of revenue from international companies actually coming from within their own region.
  2. Software has accelerated the trend of regionalism, allowing companies to go global quickly and efficiently.
  3. Regionalism is a significant economic force, impacting everything from trade to supply chains, and is likely to continue growing in importance even amidst global challenges like Covid.

Daily Chartbook #266

Daily Chartbook • 1388 implied HN points • 25 Aug 23
💼 Business Economy
  1. Affordability for homebuyers has decreased significantly since August 2022.
  2. Homebuilder backlogs have decreased from 10.7k homes to 7.3k homes from Q2 2022 to Q2 2023.
  3. Household deposit balances are at least 30% higher in July 2023 compared to 2019.

Daily Chartbook #251

Daily Chartbook • 1441 implied HN points • 04 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Newly listed homes declined by 20.8% in July compared to the previous year.
  2. Active listings of homes decreased by 6.4% compared to last year.
  3. The U.S. homeowner vacancy rate dropped to 0.7% in the second quarter, the lowest since 1956.

Reading the Mind of BOJ Chief Ueda

Japan Economy Watch • 279 implied HN points • 22 May 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is determined to maintain current policies and resist pressure to raise interest rates, emphasizing the importance of waiting for sustained 2% inflation before making any changes.
  2. Japan's inflation is mainly cost-push due to external factors like energy and food prices influenced by global events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with wage hikes seen as essential for achieving the desired price and wage growth balance.
  3. A key aspect for Japan's economic recovery and future inflation rate is the slow GDP growth, indicating that the economy is operating below capacity, which poses challenges for potential consumer inflation.

Daily Chartbook #243

Daily Chartbook • 1441 implied HN points • 25 Jul 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Fed balance sheet assets at lowest levels since 2021
  2. Global chip inventory at highest levels since 2001
  3. Earnings beats are underperforming misses for the first time since 2000

Greek stock market greens

The Greek Analyst • 199 implied HN points • 20 Nov 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. The Greek stock market is performing well, with significant gains and various positive capital market developments like IPOs and investments.
  2. Greece's stock market offers appealing valuations compared to other European markets, making it an attractive investment opportunity.
  3. There is a resurgence of interest in Greek stocks, with increasing institutional support, positive outlook, and initiatives to boost market participation, indicating a potential trend for growth.

Top Links 569 Is College fee inflation back? China in LatAm & China in Hungary. Exploding tankers in the dark fleet and Sudan's death toll.

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 23 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. College tuition fees are rising again, and they are going up faster than general inflation. This could be a concern for students and families who are trying to afford education.
  2. China's influence in Latin America and Hungary is growing. It’s important to watch how this changes both regions and their relationships with other countries.
  3. There are serious issues happening globally, like exploding tankers and increasing death tolls in places like Sudan. These events highlight ongoing conflicts and crises that need more attention.

Daily Chartbook #170

Daily Chartbook • 1755 implied HN points • 29 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. US home prices fell for the 7th straight month, lowest growth since Nov 2019
  2. Container traffic in US ports dropped compared to the same time last year
  3. February goods deficit increased with exports down by 3.8% and imports by 2.3%

Daily Chartbook #169

Daily Chartbook • 1755 implied HN points • 28 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. US banks have tightened lending standards in autos and credit cards this quarter.
  2. Probability of the economy entering a recession in the next 12 months is at 35%.
  3. Bank deposits in the banking sector have declined by almost $600bn since the Fed began to raise interest rates.

Top Links 604 China's booming exports. A new gas pipeline and America's murder epidemic of 2020.

Chartbook • 343 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. China's exports are growing a lot because prices for things like solar panels are going down. More products are being sold even if they are cheaper.
  2. A new gas pipeline is being developed, which could affect energy supplies and markets. This could change how countries trade and use gas.
  3. The murder rate in America rose dramatically in 2020, which raised concerns about safety and crime rates in the country. This trend has led to discussions about social issues and law enforcement.

December 11, 2025

Letters from an American • 24 implied HN points • 12 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. Trump is pitching an affordability message but his tariff-driven policies and mixed rhetoric are raising prices and failing to convince voters, as shown by low approval on his economic leadership.
  2. Republicans in Congress refused to extend Affordable Care Act premium tax credits and remain deeply divided, risking higher costs for many Americans; extending those credits would cost about $350 billion over ten years versus over $4 trillion to extend recent tax cuts.
  3. The administration has pressured states to redraw districts and even threatened federal funding, but state-level resistance—like Indiana’s rejection of a gerrymander—plus House infighting show growing GOP instability, leading the White House to consider using surrogates to sell its message.

Daily Chartbook #233

Daily Chartbook • 1441 implied HN points • 11 Jul 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. US REITS hold $14 billion of maturing debt this year.
  2. Recession indicators like ISM new orders and yield curve spreads suggest a recession.
  3. Used-vehicle prices dropped 4.2% in June, the largest decline since the pandemic started.

State of the US Economy Webinar Information

The Pomp Letter • 139 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economy
  1. The webinar on the state of the US Economy has been rescheduled to Wednesday February 14th at 9:30am EST.
  2. The change in schedule was made to accommodate more people who couldn't make it on the original day.
  3. The new date gives everyone a full week to plan and attend the webinar.

Significant Uncertainties.

News Items • 235 implied HN points • 31 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics Economy
  1. Artificial intelligences are not considered conscious yet, but there is potential for self-awareness.
  2. An autonomous system called Swift has demonstrated success in drone racing at a human champion level.
  3. A new theory suggests that the brain may sort memories based on their usefulness for guiding future actions.

Bonds bail us out

Known Unknowns • 235 implied HN points • 26 Jun 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Bonds can be a good financial tool for managing risk and long-term investment.
  2. Questioning traditional financial theories, like investing in long-term bonds, can lead to insights on managing pension funds.
  3. Work-from-home trends may not be sustainable in the long term due to the importance of workplace relationships and culture.

Daily Chartbook #232

Daily Chartbook • 1388 implied HN points • 08 Jul 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Jefferies' indicator shows decline in lending vs. GDP
  2. Atlanta Fed's GDP estimate for Q2 increased to 2.1%
  3. Different measures show varying views on excess savings running out