Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' $89 / month

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' Substack analyzes macroeconomic trends, monetary policy impacts, labor market dynamics, and fiscal policy influences on inflation and economic stability. It critiques Federal Reserve policies, discusses the banking sector's challenges, and forecasts market movements with an emphasis on implications for investment strategy.

Macroeconomic Trends Monetary Policy Labor Market Dynamics Fiscal Policy and Inflation Banking Sector Analysis Investment Strategies Market Forecasts Federal Reserve Policies

The hottest Substack posts of Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time'

And their main takeaways

Quadrilemma

373 implied HN points • 06 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economics Markets Investments Federal Reserve Policy
  1. The market outlook suggests it's time to increase exposure to cyclical sectors.
  2. Understanding the market implied policy path, earnings expectations, and the Fed's reaction function is crucial for making strategic investment decisions.
  3. A healthy broadening out in the market may require certain economic conditions to be met, like unemployment rates and average hourly earnings.

Fiscal Boom

294 implied HN points • 20 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economics Investing Markets Policy Banking
  1. Labor market data shows signs of softening, impacting Federal Reserve's rate reduction plans.
  2. Financial sector faces profitability issues, not liquidity problems, affecting shareholder returns.
  3. Tech sector leading equities, while Treasury market selloff impacts financials and small caps.

The Big Bond Week

137 implied HN points • 27 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economy Monetary Policy Investments Bonds Market Analysis
  1. The FOMC meeting and the Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement are key events affecting policy and market reactions.
  2. Investors are closely watching for details on rate cuts, balance sheet reduction, and labor conditions.
  3. The upcoming employment report could impact policy decisions, especially in relation to labor demand and supply.
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Inflation Mythology

176 implied HN points • 11 Feb 23
  1. Historical narratives about inflation often absolve fiscal policy and shift blame to the Fed.
  2. Monetary stimulus mainly impacts asset inflation, whereas fiscal stimulus more directly influences consumer price inflation.
  3. The Fed's ability to address inflation is limited, and future trends in inflation may be influenced by factors like fiscal policy and deglobalization.

Overly Restrictive

176 implied HN points • 18 Mar 23
💰 Finance Macro Banking Policy Risk management Monetary Policy
  1. The banking system is facing challenges due to overly restrictive policies.
  2. There is a risk of significant market value losses for banks due to rate risk and mark-to-market issues.
  3. The Fed needs to consider the implications of an inverted yield curve and provide guidance to mitigate potential risks.

The Petrodollar

176 implied HN points • 09 Sep 23
💰 Finance Investment Economy Policy Market Analysis Inflation
  1. The labor market is close to its pre-pandemic stable wage growth environment.
  2. The Fed's stance on interest rates may be shifting due to evolving economic indicators.
  3. There may be underlying warning signs in the labor market despite FOMC's optimistic outlook.

Payroll Preview & Return of the Policy Put

137 implied HN points • 01 Nov 23
💰 Finance Economics Markets Policy Investing Bonds
  1. The Federal Reserve may not raise rates if certain conditions are met, such as softening labor market data or 10-year Treasury rates staying near 5%.
  2. A sustainable rally in the Treasury and equity markets requires a rally in 2-year Treasuries to stabilize the banking system.
  3. To reduce damage to bank balance sheets and profitability, yield curve normalization with a starting point at 4.75% could be beneficial.

Proceeding Recklessly

137 implied HN points • 23 Sep 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Housing Affordability Banking System
  1. The Fed's forward guidance has significant implications for market outlook, creating uncertainty for the rest of the year.
  2. There are concerns about a bear steepening of the Treasury Curve due to increased Treasury supply and reduced buyers.
  3. Housing affordability has been negatively impacted by monetary policy, leading to structural changes in rental rates.

The Wrong Price

58 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Policy Economics Market Analysis
  1. Thematic investing is dominating the price action, with themes like generative AI boom and strong performance in the industrial sector attracting attention.
  2. Misdiagnosis of issues like prohibitive financing costs instead of asset quality is occurring, impacting treasury markets and regional bank stocks.
  3. Outlook on sustainable disinflation post CPI revisions and the association between regional banks and treasury market are key areas of focus.

Iceberg Risk

117 implied HN points • 18 Feb 23
💰 Finance Economic outlook Market Analysis Monetary Policy Investment strategy
  1. The economic outlook for 2023 differs from the consensus, with expectations of lower inflation and resilient growth.
  2. The treasury curve suggests an improved growth outlook without an increase in inflation expectations.
  3. The earnings recession seen in certain sectors is recovering, indicating a positive trend in earnings revisions.

January Payroll Preview

58 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economics Labor Market
  1. The pre-payrolls labor market data suggests a decrease in job switching affecting wage growth and unemployment rates.
  2. The 'Great Reallocation' from mid-2021 to mid-2022 has evolved into the 'Great Staycation,' impacting wage growth and labor market dynamics.
  3. There are concerns about demand and supply questions in the labor market, leading to a need for potential adjustments and revisions in strategies.

The Stock and Flow of M2

98 implied HN points • 25 Feb 23
💰 Finance Economics Monetary Policy Investing Market Analysis
  1. Focus on the rate of change in the money supply to understand the flow of money and system liquidity.
  2. The stock of money may be excessive, but the growth rate is rapidly declining, affecting the outlook for monetary policy and Treasuries.
  3. The impact of monetary policy on housing demand and global manufacturing was immediate in 2022.

March Payroll Preview

98 implied HN points • 04 Apr 23
💰 Finance Employment Labor Market Payroll Small business Economic Analysis
  1. The strong headline payroll gains in January and February may be misleading, as demand for labor is slowing.
  2. There are concerns about the labor market catching up due to manufacturing and housing contractions, slowing services demand, and potential issues with small business employment measurement.
  3. The consistency in patterns shown by ADP and NFIB reports compared to the BLS model raises skepticism about the strength in headline payrolls for January and February.

Modern Industrial Policy

78 implied HN points • 28 Oct 23
💰 Finance Economics Investing Monetary Policy Market Analysis
  1. The equity market faced a valuation correction, driven by different sectors and Treasury supply issues.
  2. Strong growth data and monetary policy shifts are impacting financial conditions and asset valuations.
  3. Investment outlook suggests potential for disorderly market shifts despite some attractiveness in fixed income.