The hottest Economy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Business Topics

Don’t Be Fooled

Points And Figures • 906 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. Don't just focus on all-time highs in the stock market, also consider the rate of change and velocity of growth.
  2. Analyze hard statistics objectively to compare economic performance under different presidencies.
  3. Take into account various economic indicators like natural gas and crude oil production when evaluating administration policies.

Spreadsheet, Not Skynet: Microdoses, Not Microprocessors

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 130 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
🕹 Technology Economy
  1. AI tools like GPT are not as powerful as some say; they're more like useful spreadsheets than super intelligent machines. This means their impact on the economy is real but not world-changing.
  2. The benefits of AI on human welfare will be positive but limited. It's important to use AI wisely and not let it distract us.
  3. AI models are great for processing language, but they aren't complex enough to be truly revolutionary. They function similarly to simple input-output machines rather than groundbreaking technologies.

Earnings: TSMC, ASML, AEHR, Telecom

Mule’s Musings • 417 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
💼 Business Economy
  1. ASML's recent earnings revealed a drop in orders and concerns about future growth, particularly due to challenges in their Chinese market and demand from major clients like Samsung and Intel.
  2. TSMC reported strong earnings with high demand for AI-related products and plans for significant capital investment, showing confidence in their growth despite market fears.
  3. The semiconductor industry is facing a shift, with lithography spending likely slowing down, but both ASML and TSMC are positioned to adapt to these changes for future growth.

The Japanification of Work: Lessons from an Ageing Nation

Workforce Futurist by Andy Spence • 293 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💼 Business Economy
  1. Japan is facing a major challenge with an aging population, as more people are over 65 than under 5. This creates pressure on the economy and social systems.
  2. To tackle the labor shortage, Japan is using technology like robots and exoskeletons to support care workers and assist the elderly. Employers are also adjusting work policies to help older workers.
  3. Other countries can learn from Japan's approach to handle aging populations by rethinking retirement, encouraging women in the workforce, and being open to skilled immigration.
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Daily Chartbook #188

Daily Chartbook • 1519 implied HN points • 25 Apr 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. US economic activity was below trend in March but recession risk is low
  2. Forecast predicts technical recession for Q3-Q4
  3. Dallas Fed manufacturing saw a significant plunge in the headline index, marking 12 consecutive months of contraction

Daily Chartbook #171

Daily Chartbook • 1572 implied HN points • 30 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. US petroleum inventory in the past week had a significant draw.
  2. Mortgage demand is up with rates on 30Y fixed rate mortgages falling.
  3. The spread between mortgage rates and treasury yields is at a record wide gap.

China Teeters

The Dollar Endgame • 219 implied HN points • 01 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics Economy
  1. China's real estate market is showing warning signals and potential financial crisis issues.
  2. The Chinese government's push for massive industrial growth led to developers taking on massive debts for unprofitable projects like 'ghost cities'.
  3. Lenders in China have authorized bad loans for real estate projects, creating a housing bubble that surpasses the 2008 financial crisis.

Daily Chartbook #168

Daily Chartbook • 1572 implied HN points • 25 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. The Biden administration planned to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserves at lower oil prices but hasn't yet.
  2. For-hire truck tonnage has been increasing consistently for the last three months.
  3. There is concern over a foreign central bank maxing out the FIMA repo, not covered by FX swap lines.

IL RISCHIO AUMENTA

ANDREA CECCHI Newsletter • 117 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Economy
  1. Belief that war will intensify rapidly, especially after recent comments from Biden regarding attacks on Houthi rebels.
  2. Expectation for liquidity to seek safety in the bond market, leading to lower bond yields, creating an illusion of security.
  3. Concern over Biden starting a war in Yemen without constitutional approval, although the rebel group poses minimal threat to American homeland.

Black Rainstorm.

News Items • 216 implied HN points • 08 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics Economy
  1. China's jobless college graduates are causing embarrassment to Xi Jinping due to high unemployment rates among the youth.
  2. The China model, a mix of liberalization and state control, is facing severe economic challenges that Xi Jinping may have failed to address in time.
  3. If current trends continue, China may not surpass the United States as the world's dominant economy.

Debt

Life in the 21st Century • 216 implied HN points • 26 May 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. The politics and perception of debt have shifted over the last century, from deficit spending to austerity measures.
  2. The exponential growth of private debt, fueled by government policies and cheap credit, is a significant concern in the contemporary financial landscape.
  3. There is a growing need for a modern-day debt forgiveness or restructuring approach to address the increasing burden of debt on society.

All hail the demise of Adobe-Figma

Alex's Personal Blog • 98 implied HN points • 01 Aug 25
💼 Business Economy
  1. The economy is not as strong as it seemed, with job data showing a slowdown and rising long-term unemployment. This means we may be facing challenges ahead instead of stability.
  2. The failed acquisition of Figma by Adobe is seen as a positive outcome for Figma and its investors, allowing them to see a larger increase in value without being bought out.
  3. Increased competition in the market is beneficial for users and smaller companies, reminding us that antitrust actions can protect growing startups from larger corporations.

Will Kuroda Blink This Week?

Japan Economy Watch • 399 implied HN points • 14 Jan 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. The Bank of Japan is facing pressure to raise interest rates as the market challenges its efforts to keep rates down.
  2. Despite spending 5% of GDP on purchasing government bonds, the BOJ's attempts to control rates have not been successful.
  3. The future moves of the Bank of Japan will likely affect the yen's value, impacting inflation, trade competitiveness, and overall economic well-being of Japan.

Daily Chartbook #197

Daily Chartbook • 1388 implied HN points • 16 May 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Food commodity prices are easing from record highs.
  2. European Commission upgraded inflation and growth forecasts for EU.
  3. US supply chain stress tracker fell, putting downward pressure on goods prices.

Top Links 543 French billionaires. CGT election panel. America's manufacturing disasters & plunging global fertility.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. There are 543 billionaires in France, which shows a significant level of wealth concentration in the country. This number can spark discussions about wealth distribution and economic policies.
  2. America is facing major challenges in its manufacturing sector, leading to concerns about economic stability and job security. Understanding these issues can help us think about the future of work and industry.
  3. Global fertility rates are declining, which could have long-term effects on population growth and economic dynamics. This trend raises important questions about family planning and societal changes.

December 3, 2025

Letters from an American • 23 implied HN points • 04 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. A Tennessee special election showed a large swing toward Democrats, suggesting a 7–8 point national shift that could flip the House and put the Senate in play for 2026. Republicans are alarmed and may have to defend many seats once thought safe.
  2. Affordability — rising prices for food, housing, energy, gas, and healthcare, plus economic stagnation — is driving voter anger and appears to be the core issue behind the political shift. Recent private-sector job losses and economic disruption are reinforcing those concerns.
  3. Expiring Affordable Care Act premium tax credits have turned into a major political flashpoint that splits Republicans between ideological goals and electoral reality, while Democrats push to force a vote to extend the credits. That fight, along with disputes over Trump’s priorities and congressional leadership, is deepening GOP fractures ahead of the midterms.

Top Links 547 America's huge trade deficit. Hedge funds bet against green. Bout & the Houthis & the grate (sic) cheese robbery.

Chartbook • 357 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economy
  1. America's trade deficit widened significantly in September, which means the country is buying way more from other countries than it's selling.
  2. Hedge funds are making big bets against green investments, which suggests they believe these investments won't perform well in the future.
  3. There was a strange robbery involving 'grate cheese' and the Houthis, showing how unusual events can grab attention in the news.

Cooking The Books

Points And Figures • 719 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. Government-reported economic numbers can be misleading, especially in non-democratic countries where they may be fake.
  2. Statistic revisions are common in economic releases, but major revisions like a 35% drop raise concerns about accuracy.
  3. Unemployment numbers from the US Department of Labor under President Biden have seen significant and questionable revisions, impacting predictions and planning based on them.

Video of My Talk and Q&A on Japan Zoominar

Japan Economy Watch • 99 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
🌐 International Economy
  1. Richard Katz participated in a lively dialogue about his new book on Japan's economic future during the Japan Zoominar.
  2. Questions from the audience were diverse and engaging, sparking interesting discussions.
  3. Katz will provide answers to more audience questions in a future post and will speak at the Tokyo campus of Temple University on Feb. 8th.

Strategic or tactical? China’s leaders have tried hard to reassure investors. The wisdom of Chinese philosopher Hu Shih comes to mind: “More study of problems, less talk of ‘isms’”.

Wang Xiangwei's Thought of the Day on China • 196 implied HN points • 03 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Economy
  1. China's leaders are working hard to reassure investors amid economic challenges.
  2. There is skepticism surrounding China's commitment to its reform and opening up policies.
  3. Recent measures suggest China is addressing concerns about legal protections for entrepreneurs.

As China’s legislature opened to elect a new government, it’s time to curb the ultra-leftist revival which threatens Xi Jinping’s plan to revive the economy and goal of national rejuvenation

Wang Xiangwei's Thought of the Day on China • 196 implied HN points • 06 Mar 23
🌍 World Politics Economy
  1. China's Communist Party has fluctuated between ultra-left radicalism and pragmatism throughout history.
  2. Key leaders like Deng Xiaoping emphasized the importance of guarding against ultra-leftist tendencies to focus on economic growth.
  3. Current challenges in China include the resurgence of ultra-leftist sentiments threatening economic development and the need to curb these tendencies.

Top Links 594 American consumers flipflop. Questioning the savings glut & the strain of too much scientific publishing.

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economy
  1. American consumers are uncertain about their spending and saving habits right now. It shows there's a lot of confusion about the economy.
  2. There's a discussion about whether there's too much focus on saving money in the economy. Some believe this could be a problem.
  3. The volume of scientific publishing is increasing, and this might be causing stress for researchers. It's important to find a balance in how much gets published.

Job Cuts Due to AI: What to Make of Them?

Last Week in AI • 298 implied HN points • 28 Jul 23
🕹 Technology Economy
  1. Some workers are losing jobs due to advancements in AI technology like ChatGPT.
  2. Predictions vary on the impact of AI on future jobs, with some foreseeing significant automation that could affect millions of jobs globally.
  3. We are still in a transitional phase with AI technology, and the impact on the workforce is heterogeneous, with job cuts stemming from various economic factors.

Top Links 617 Student debt is baaaack. Modern defense. Bulldozer politics & Naples '44 revisited.

Chartbook • 257 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. Student debt is becoming a big issue again, affecting many people's finances and future plans. It's important to stay informed about the changes related to it.
  2. There are ongoing discussions about modern defense strategies, highlighting the need for updated approaches in today's world. We should think critically about how these strategies impact our safety.
  3. The political climate is changing, with discussions about 'bulldozer politics' suggesting a more forceful approach to governance. It's worth considering how these tactics might shape our democracy.

Shortsighted tech bros seek to leave American STEM talent even further behind.

The Dossier • 277 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. There is a belief that the U.S. needs to bring in foreign workers to fill tech jobs because there aren't enough qualified Americans. This argument has sparked a lot of discussion and pushback.
  2. Many Americans are struggling because our education system often overlooks local talent in favor of foreign students for prestigious programs. This makes it tough for U.S. students to find good jobs in tech.
  3. Some argue that America should prioritize its own citizens in tech hiring, as other countries have successfully developed their tech sectors without relying heavily on foreign immigrants.

The Market Economy Fight

Vietnam Weekly • 98 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Economy
  1. Vietnam is in a debate over its market economy label by the US Commerce Department.
  2. Vietnamese labor exports are growing significantly, impacting both the economy and international relations.
  3. Tết time in Vietnam is colorful and vibrant with flower vendors all around.

Capitalism with American Characteristics

Comment is Freed • 73 implied HN points • 21 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. Trump's new deals with big companies like Nvidia and AMD could change how the government interacts with businesses. This might lead to companies having to pay to keep trading, which feels like a protection racket.
  2. Traditionally, capitalism needs a strong government to function well, but Trump’s actions show he might prioritize personal gains over free market principles.
  3. There seems to be a worry that Trump's approach is starting to resemble models from other countries, like China's, which could affect how markets and investors react in the future.

Abe Left Japan’s Economy Worse Than He Found It

Japan Economy Watch • 519 implied HN points • 13 Sep 22
💼 Business Economy
  1. Shinzo Abe failed to improve Japan's economy during his tenure as Prime Minister, falling short of his promises and leaving living standards on a decline
  2. Abe's economic policies led to suppressed GDP growth, low wages, and a shift in national income from people to corporations
  3. Despite claimed achievements like 'womenomics' and ending deflation, Abe's tenure was marked by hollow measures and missed opportunities for real structural economic reforms

Kevin Hassett's Rate Cut Inflation Inferno

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 24 implied HN points • 25 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. Kevin Hassett is becoming a strong candidate to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, which could change how the Fed makes decisions.
  2. Hassett's potential appointment might lead to faster rate cuts, prompting a mixed reaction from investors and the public.
  3. Investors seem excited about easier policies right now, but they may not fully understand the long-term effects of this shift.

Is The Land Of The Rising Sun Finally On The Rise?

Japan Economy Watch • 319 implied HN points • 25 Jan 23
🌐 International Economy
  1. Experts have mixed opinions about Japan's economic future, with some being optimistic, predicting growth and avoiding recession, while others are more pessimistic, warning of a crisis.
  2. Japan has challenges like wage suppression and resistance to change, but also opportunities for economic revival through societal megatrends like entrepreneurship and e-commerce.
  3. The government needs to support and capitalize on these opportunities in order to avoid missing out on potential economic growth and progress.

Links - 02/13/2023

Value Investing World • 176 implied HN points • 14 Feb 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Pragmatic value investors believe in achieving high return and low risk by buying things for less than they're worth.
  2. Overpaying implies both low return and high risk when it comes to investing.
  3. The 'Berkshire System' offers life advice through shareholder letters.