The hottest Historical Trends Substack posts right now

People often complain about “crime” when they really mean visible disorder like litter, graffiti, shoplifting, tent encampments, and loud boom boxes, and that conflation helps explain why many feel crime is getting worse even though overall crime is low.
The hard data are mixed and locally varied: litter seems down, graffiti is unclear, shoplifting is modestly higher than its lows but below 1990s levels, and homelessness and encampments rose around 2020 but are hard to measure consistently.
There are several reasons people might perceive a rise in disorder — a 2020 bump, comparing today to an unusually peaceful mid-20th-century low, or simply different historical kinds of squalor — so it’s more useful to focus on specific, local evidence than on blanket claims that society is collapsing.

In 2025 the continental United States had no hurricane landfalls, even as the Atlantic produced unusually powerful storms and multiple Category 5 hurricanes that caused heavy losses in the Caribbean.
Long-term records show no upward trend in U.S. hurricane landfalls or major hurricane landfalls, and global ACE and ACE-per-hurricane also show no clear trend, which challenges simple claims that warming has already produced fewer but more intense storms.
A peer-reviewed review from 2005 concluded that strong links between global warming and hurricane impacts were premature, and later-revealed efforts by some assessment authors tried to exclude that work from major reports, though the review has remained in the literature and widely cited.

We often hear that our times are unprecedented, but history shows that every moment of change feels like a big deal. It reminds us to be humble about how special we think our current situation is.
Change is happening faster than ever, but that's true of all significant moments in history. Each era has its own speed of change, and we should keep that in mind.
Instead of feeling overwhelmed, we can look back at history for guidance. Understanding past events can help us make sense of today's challenges.

The graph shows a decline in global real interest rates over 800 years, challenging the idea of 'secular stagnation'.
Interest rates' evolution over history raises questions about the relationship between the rate of profit, societal changes, and financial market dynamics.
Factors like technological progress, income growth, and human behaviors impact the slope of the real intertemporal price system, affecting interest rates.

Male college enrollment has been declining relative to females, with significant historic changes in gender ratio.
Learning outcomes like SAT scores and GPA are not driving the changing college enrollment gap.
Changes in admission criteria, such as emphasizing GPA over standardized tests, have impacted male acceptance rates and enrollment.

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Exploring counterfactual scenarios helps forecast future trends by imagining a world without specific factors like large language models (LLMs).
Using the "outside view" involves making predictions based on broader trends and historical data rather than focusing on specific instances.
Monte Carlo simulations provide an empirically-grounded view by generating random future scenarios based on historical changes, aiding in predicting potential outcomes.