The hottest Homebuilding Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 215 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26
  1. Existing-home inventory has risen and months-of-inventory are mostly above pre‑pandemic levels, putting downward pressure on prices and making a year‑over‑year price decline possible this year, though a large wave of distressed sales is unlikely because most owners have strong equity and low mortgage rates.
  2. The housing market is uneven across regions: some areas are seeing bigger inventory increases and price drops, while places like the Northeast have smaller inventory gains and continuing price increases.
  3. Homebuilders look to have a rough 2026 with many completed and under‑construction homes unsold, leading to price cuts to compete with existing‑home inventory; overall active listings are up year‑over‑year but remain below typical 2017–2019 levels and the pace of growth is slowing.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 253 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
  1. Total housing completions in 2025 fell to about 1.60 million (1.498 million excluding manufactured homes), down roughly 7.5–7.9% year‑over‑year.
  2. Multifamily completions declined sharply in 2025 (5+ unit completions down about 20% from 2023) after a 2024 surge, but they still ranked as the second highest level since 1987.
  3. Single‑family completions dipped slightly to about 1.01 million in 2025, while active single‑family inventory has risen (up 1.4% week‑over‑week and roughly 9.4% year‑over‑year) with a larger spring inventory pickup expected.
Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 26 Feb 26
  1. There are speculative signs that the housing market may be turning.
  2. Hovnanian's 1Q 2026 earnings report is being used to test those speculations about a market turn.
  3. Full analysis of the results is behind a subscription/paywall, though a limited free preview is available.
Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 03 Feb 26
  1. Pulte, M/I, and Meritage all reported earnings covering the period through December.
  2. Their earnings reports appeared to tell a similar overall story or trend across the three companies.
  3. Full details and deeper analysis are behind a subscription/paywall, so you need access to the paid content for the complete write-up.
Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
  1. September and October residential construction updates are now available and cover recent activity for those months.
  2. Full details are behind a subscription paywall, but there is an option to claim a free post or subscribe to read everything.
  3. The write-up includes detailed month-by-month construction reporting for readers who access the full content.
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CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 15 Jan 26
  1. Active housing inventory has risen sharply — active listings are up about 12% year‑over‑year and this marks many consecutive months of inventory gains, bringing supply closer to pre‑pandemic levels.
  2. Existing‑home sales fell in 2025 to the lowest level since 1995, which is putting downward pressure on prices, though a big wave of distressed sales is unlikely because most homeowners have strong equity and low mortgage rates.
  3. The new‑home market is disappointing: builders are carrying many completed and under‑construction unsold homes and are cutting prices to compete with increased existing‑home inventory.
Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
  1. The housing market is influenced by various factors like interest rates and supply shortages. These changes can affect home prices and availability for buyers.
  2. Homebuilder activity can indicate overall market health. A rise in new builds might suggest confidence in the economy.
  3. Monitoring trends in housing can help investors and buyers make better decisions. Staying informed about the market can lead to smarter choices.
The Sunday Morning Post • 58 implied HN points • 21 May 23
  1. Home Depot reported a 4.2% decline in sales for Q1 2023, marking the start of a period of moderation in the construction sector.
  2. Lower home construction numbers are impacting sales of materials like lumber and affecting big-ticket item purchases.
  3. Factors like higher interest rates, inflation, and economic uncertainty are contributing to the slowdown in the construction market.