Erdmann Housing Tracker

Erdmann Housing Tracker explores the multifaceted reasons behind escalating housing costs, including the impacts of urban regulation, economic models, homeownership trends, and monetary policy. The Substack provides data-driven analyses on inflation, housing supply shortages, regulatory effects, and proposes solutions for improving housing affordability and stability.

Housing Market Trends Urban Planning and Regulation Economic Policy and Inflation Homeownership and Renting Dynamics Monetary Policy Supply and Demand in Housing Global Financial Crisis Demographic Impacts on Housing Construction and Housing Supply Gentrification and Displacement Affordable Housing Strategies

The hottest Substack posts of Erdmann Housing Tracker

And their main takeaways

It's Happening. Not good.

6870 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Housing policy Government Regulation Social Issues Economic Impact
  1. Bills are being introduced in many states to stop corporations from owning single-family homes. This could seriously limit where families can live.
  2. There is a big need for new homes, around 15 to 20 million, but these new laws might block the creation of rental houses that could help solve the housing crisis.
  3. Many families are already struggling to find places to live, and if these bills pass, things could get even worse. It's like we're making it harder for ourselves to find good housing.

Economists and Price/Rent Ratios

189 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economics Market Analysis Investment Housing policy
  1. Most economists think that price/rent ratios should stay the same over time. But actually, changes in rents are what mostly drive these ratios.
  2. A big reason the housing market is often misunderstood is because economists don’t factor in how much access to mortgages has changed since 2008.
  3. Rents have been rising faster than other costs, which affects home prices. This key point is often overlooked, meaning many people are missing out on important trading opportunities.

Follow-Up to My Investor Ban Rant

295 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Legislation Real Estate Market Analysis Investment Trends
  1. Banning large investors from buying homes might make the housing crisis worse. We really need more homes for rent, and investors are key to that.
  2. Homeowners tend to outbid investors for homes, leading to fewer rentals available. This is driving up rents because there just aren't enough homes to go around.
  3. If lawmakers seriously limit investor ownership, they need to think about how that will affect renters. Fewer rental homes may mean higher rents for everyone.

Projects don't pencil.

231 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💼 Business Economics Real Estate Market Trends Finance Investment
  1. When projects don't pencil, it can relate to high costs or other factors, but it doesn't always explain the larger market trends clearly. Builders often focus too narrowly on costs without considering broader economic influences.
  2. There's a constant shift in the number of projects that pencil versus those that don't, depending on market conditions. Just because many projects aren't penciling doesn't mean that new projects won't be started; it can often indicate changing circumstances.
  3. Understanding why projects aren't penciling is complex. Costs, demand, and other factors all play a role, but it's important to avoid oversimplifying the reasons behind these changes.
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Homebuilder Earnings

63 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Investments Economics Market Trends Real Estate
  1. Homebuilder earnings give insights into the health of the housing market. They can show how well builders are doing right now.
  2. Tracking these earnings can help predict future trends in home prices and availability. It’s important for buyers and investors to know what's happening in the market.
  3. Understanding homebuilder performance can help people make better decisions about buying or selling homes. It helps everyone stay informed.

January 2025 New Home Sales

21 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💼 Business Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Impact Inventory Analysis
  1. Home sales are still slow following the effects of Covid-19. Many people are still hesitant to buy homes right now.
  2. The number of homes for sale is high, which relates to the inventory levels seen in 2008. This suggests a potential oversupply in the market.
  3. The months of supply for homes on the market are also very high, indicating that it may take a while for the market to balance out.

The Midwest Tragedy: Canton

168 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Economic Impact Market Trends
  1. The Midwest, especially cities like Canton, has been greatly affected by housing market policies since 2008. Many areas still struggle due to lack of affordable homes and stagnant population growth.
  2. Even with some recent construction in places like Canton, there is still a significant shortage of housing. Local governments often react negatively to changes, which complicates the situation.
  3. Housing issues are not just local but affect wider regions like the Northeast. Poor housing policies can lead to long-term suffering for communities and create a cycle that's hard to break.

No, this isn't normal

463 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Economic Policy Urban Development Social Issues Political Economy
  1. Many people argue that housing costs have always been high, but this isn't accurate. In the past, housing prices were much more stable compared to the rapid increases we've seen in the last few decades.
  2. High housing costs today are not just due to demand. There's a complex web of factors that includes limited housing supply and economic changes, which makes it harder for people, especially those with lower incomes, to afford homes.
  3. The impact of rising rent prices isn't felt equally. While wealthier areas may see rents that align with income growth, poorer communities face much higher rent increases, making it challenging for families to maintain their living situations.

What Homes Are Missing, again?

231 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💼 Business Housing Economics Data Analysis Market Trends Population Growth
  1. There is a significant shortage of homes in the U.S., estimated at around 15 million. This is due to various factors like vacancies and the rising number of adults per home.
  2. Vacancies have dropped over the years, and we might be short about 5 million vacant units needed to keep rent inflation stable.
  3. Population growth has slowed since 2008 and has likely affected housing demand, which adds pressure to the existing housing shortage.

Canton Follow-Up Post

126 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Urban planning Economic Trends Zoning Laws Social Issues
  1. Canton is facing a serious housing issue, with a big decline in new single-family homes being built. This drop is linked to strict zoning laws that make it difficult for families to create more housing options.
  2. Rents in Canton have grown faster than inflation, which is making it hard for residents. Even though buying a home could be cheaper than renting, many people can't get mortgages due to those same zoning restrictions.
  3. The U.S. has a widespread housing crisis, not just in wealthy areas like New York City but everywhere. If cities make it easier to build new homes, they could become more affordable again.

January 2025 Residential Construction

42 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economic Trends Construction Employment Market Analysis
  1. Residential construction jobs are not increasing much and have been stable. This suggests a slow period for the construction industry.
  2. The number of new construction starts was lower this month, indicating potential challenges ahead for the housing market.
  3. Despite issues in construction, there's a lot of political noise happening, which makes the calm in construction seem strange.

Phoenix Screenings of "Fault Lines" Documentary

126 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Documentaries Economic issues Community Engagement
  1. There will be two screenings of the documentary 'Fault Lines' in the Phoenix area, focused on the housing crisis. It's a chance to learn more about this important topic.
  2. The documentary is praised for being accurate and avoiding common myths about housing economics. It's recommended for anyone interested in the housing situation.
  3. After the first screening, there will be a discussion panel. It's a good opportunity to engage with the topic and ask questions.

No, Rent Management Software Didn't Make Phoenix Expensive

147 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Legal issues Local Governance Economic Factors Social justice
  1. The high rent prices in Arizona aren't caused by rental management software. There's a belief that the software is to blame, but that's not the real reason.
  2. A real cartel would limit production intentionally to raise prices, but landlords are actually trying to build more apartments.
  3. Local factors and regulations can stop new apartment projects from happening, which might be a bigger issue affecting rents.

How Many Homes Do We Need?

358 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Policy Market Analysis
  1. There is a huge underestimation of the housing shortage in the U.S. Many professionals are saying we need less housing than we actually do.
  2. Current data shows there are about 15 million vacant homes, but many more are needed due to population growth. Estimates suggest a shortage of at least 15 to 20 million units.
  3. Building more homes can help lower rents and make housing more affordable, but there's a risk that new constructions may only be rented out at higher prices, especially if ownership becomes less accessible.

Credit Where Credit Is Due: Nashville & Charlotte!

105 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Urban Development Economic Trends Real Estate
  1. Nashville has a unique housing law that helps build affordable starter homes, making it a great place for newcomers. It's important to look at different regions when discussing housing costs.
  2. Charlotte also deserves recognition for managing housing prices better than expected. It's not just the well-known cities that have good housing policies.
  3. Overall, housing costs have risen in Nashville, Charlotte, and Austin over the years, but these cities still have relatively better conditions compared to others. Keeping an eye on varied areas can provide a fuller picture of the housing market.

January 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update and Inflation

21 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Inflation Economic Trends Market Analysis Real Estate
  1. Home prices changed in the past two decades, with different local and national factors affecting these trends. This means that while prices may rise overall, local conditions can vary greatly.
  2. Recent inflation numbers showed a slight increase, but it's unclear if this is just a temporary change or part of a longer trend. It's important to watch these numbers closely for a clearer picture.
  3. When looking at inflation data, excluding shelter costs gives a better understanding of general price trends, which have generally stayed close to the target rate over time.

Homeownership isn't that risky

189 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Investments Homeownership Economic Policy Market Trends
  1. Homeownership is often seen as risky, but this idea is misunderstood. Many homes don't actually lose value significantly over time, and the risks are often overstated.
  2. Lower-priced homes can be a good investment, especially for families with lower incomes. The rental income from these homes can outweigh the risks involved.
  3. The financial difficulties in the post-2008 housing market were largely driven by government policies, not the inherent risks of owning a home. For many, owning a home can still be a stable investment over time.

RealPage, Collusion, and Rents: Part 4

231 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Housing Market Regulatory issues Market Competition Political Commentary
  1. The software used by landlords to set rents has been blamed for rising rental costs. However, it's only responsible for a small fraction of the rent increases compared to other factors like low housing supply.
  2. Many cities are reacting to rising rents by trying to legislate against the software, even though it has a low market share in the most expensive areas. This means other bigger issues are being ignored.
  3. People need to reassess their economic beliefs and focus on more significant causes of high rents, rather than getting fixated on algorithms and large corporations, which may not be the main problem.

Rent trends and multi-family construction

84 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis Investment Strategies Housing policy
  1. The rent trends in different cities show that Austin is currently performing the best among metro areas in Texas.
  2. When looking at rental prices, it's important to consider whether changes are due to short-term demand shifts or local supply issues.
  3. The Erdmann Housing Tracker provides insights into multi-family construction, which can help understanding the housing market better.

Expensive Cities Aren't Attractive Cities

337 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Urban Policy Housing Market Economic Trends Real Estate
  1. High housing prices in cities don't mean they're great places to live. Instead, these prices often come from not having enough houses.
  2. Cities like Los Angeles are expensive mainly due to people wanting to stay near their families and jobs, even when it gets hard to afford living there.
  3. If cities allowed more housing to be built, they could become more affordable, meaning people wouldn't have to feel forced to leave their homes.

Households and Houses

168 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Urban Development Economic Trends Homeownership Rental market
  1. There's a big housing shortage in the U.S., with millions of homes missing compared to the number of households that want them. This means many people can't find decent places to live.
  2. Most new building has focused on single-family homes, but there's a growing need for more apartments. Many cities have rules that make it hard to build these apartments, which worsens the housing situation.
  3. To fix the housing problem, we can either try to stop investment in single-family home rentals or change the laws to build more apartments. Making it easier to build apartments is a better choice for everyone.

Rising existing inventory in Texas and Florida

42 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Economics Investment Market Analysis Real Estate
  1. Rising home inventory in places like Texas and Florida doesn't always mean a bad market. It can show real demand or a strong market too.
  2. Many people wrongly believe that too many houses lead to market crashes, but actually, drops in demand usually cause these issues.
  3. In past downturns, like in 2008, price drops happened after demand decreased, not because of oversupply. Understanding this helps make sense of current housing trends.

Expensive Cities Aren't Attractive Cities: I swear, the last post

295 implied HN points • 17 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Urban Development City Planning
  1. Cities that are expensive to live in often push out lower-income residents. This leads to a loss of diversity and change in community dynamics.
  2. The income levels in these cities can be misleading. Much of the high income averages come from the remaining, more affluent residents after the poorer ones leave.
  3. Simply being a popular or thriving city doesn't guarantee economic excellence. Many such cities suffer from issues that make them less appealing for all residents.

Expensive Cities Aren't Attractive Cities: Follow Up

273 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Urban Development Economic Inequality Land use Real Estate
  1. Expensive cities are usually not as desirable as people think. They often have high rents and limited growth due to strict building rules.
  2. Increasing the number of homes over time can help lower housing costs, but this process takes years and won't cause quick drops in prices.
  3. Arguments against the YIMBY (Yes In My Backyard) movement often rely on unproven claims. In reality, cities that allow more development can remain affordable and vibrant.

December 2024 Residential Construction

84 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💼 Business Construction Employment Economics Market Trends Real Estate
  1. Construction jobs are slowly increasing, reflecting overall job growth in the economy. This could mean more houses being built soon.
  2. There seems to be uncertainty in the construction market, as it doesn't fit historical patterns. It's unclear if residential construction jobs will continue to rise or stabilize.
  3. A lag in supply chains might be causing delays in construction. This suggests that the housing market might improve once those supply issues are resolved.

When we lost our minds: Pt.1 Overview

189 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Theory Market Analysis Housing policy Financial Crisis Investment Strategies
  1. Many people believe the 2008 financial crisis was inevitable, but this oversimplifies what really happened. It's important to question how we understand the events leading up to the crisis.
  2. High home prices and rental costs are more about limited housing supply than just low interest rates. Building more homes could help address these issues.
  3. Experts often misunderstood the role of foreign capital and how it influenced the US economy. Rather than viewing borrowing negatively, it can be a way to invest in growth.

January 2024 Homebuilder Update

84 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Investment Economic Policy
  1. The housing market is influenced by various factors like interest rates and supply shortages. These changes can affect home prices and availability for buyers.
  2. Homebuilder activity can indicate overall market health. A rise in new builds might suggest confidence in the economy.
  3. Monitoring trends in housing can help investors and buyers make better decisions. Staying informed about the market can lead to smarter choices.

Erdmann Housing Tracker 2024 in Review (July to December)

105 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💼 Business Housing Market Investment strategy Economic Policy Real Estate Market Analysis
  1. Rising rents are the main cause behind increasing home price-to-rent ratios. This happens when supply is restricted, leading to higher land rents that inflate home values.
  2. Cities with high costs usually face housing shortages because of strict building regulations. They aren't necessarily more desirable but are limited in housing availability.
  3. The mortgage market has changed, favoring higher credit score borrowers, which has reduced access for many potential homeowners. This has led to inflated home prices and keeps housing out of reach for lower-income families.

The Housing Shortage by Metro Area, Part 3

189 implied HN points • 29 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Urban Development Economic Trends Real Estate Local government
  1. Many cities have the ability to build more homes. This could help solve the housing shortage that many areas are facing right now.
  2. Some regions struggle with local rules that make it hard to build new homes, while others have been affected by tight mortgage lending practices.
  3. The Midwest has been particularly hit by the lack of new housing construction, even with growing demand, mainly due to mortgage issues from the last decade.

21 Century Housing Summary, Missouri Edition

168 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Market Analysis Policy Impact
  1. Housing prices in Missouri increased from the late 1990s to mid-2000s, but not necessarily because of a bubble. Instead, they align more with normal price patterns over a long period.
  2. There was a lending boom that raised home prices, mostly due to easier access to credit. However, this did not lead to a big increase in homeownership in Missouri.
  3. After the market crash post-2008, home construction dropped significantly, causing a supply shortage which has kept rents and housing prices high, particularly in lower-tier markets.

The Housing Shortage by Metro Area, Part 2

189 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Economic Trends Urban Development
  1. There's a significant housing shortage in many metro areas, estimated to be about 10% of the total housing stock nationwide. This means many places don't have enough homes for everyone who wants to live there.
  2. The housing shortage has changed over time, often depending on local conditions and policies. Some areas had bigger shortages in the past due to population movement and construction slowdowns.
  3. When housing production drops, it usually leads to people moving away from cities with limited homes. This creates a cycle where demand keeps rising, but construction can't keep up, leading to more shortages.

Erdmann Housing Tracker, 2024 in Review (January to June)

84 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Investment Strategies Market Analysis Economic Policy Real Estate
  1. High housing costs are mainly due to a lack of supply rather than too much demand. Cities are struggling to provide enough homes for their growing populations.
  2. Homeownership continues to decline because of demographic shifts and a severe housing shortage. Many people are forced to share living spaces instead of owning their own homes.
  3. There is a belief that adding more housing will lead to lower prices, but it often results in the opposite effect. More housing can create a sense of instability in the market, making things feel worse for current residents.

Regional Sales Trends

63 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Sales trends Economic Analysis Real Estate
  1. Regional sales trends in the housing market can provide important insights, even when traditional data sources seem less useful.
  2. Exploring regional data might reveal trends that are missed when looking at national averages.
  3. Understanding local market conditions can help inform better decisions in the real estate sector.

Case-Shiller and Filtering

189 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Inflation Supply and Demand
  1. The Case-Shiller index, which tracks home prices, historically suggested a housing bubble. However, it may actually reflect a housing shortage rather than a bubble bursting.
  2. When adjusting home prices for inflation using rent instead of general CPI, the index shows that home prices are still significantly elevated due to high rents driving prices up.
  3. Today's housing market struggles with a lack of new homes, leading to increased prices for existing homes. This lack of building capacity has made it harder for younger generations to have the same homeownership opportunities as their grandparents.

Expensive Cities Aren't Attractive Cities: One Last Word

105 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Urban Development Economic Inequality City Planning
  1. Expensive cities aren't necessarily better places to live. They often face issues like high housing costs and displacement of lower-income residents.
  2. Geographic inequality is a big problem, with only a few cities offering better opportunities and amenities. Many other cities have the potential to be great but aren't being developed.
  3. To make cities better, we need to focus on building affordable and accessible spaces rather than just following trends of what is currently expensive.

December 2024 Inflation

42 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Investments Markets Inflation Housing
  1. December 2024 saw important updates about inflation. This is something people need to keep an eye on for their finances.
  2. There's a focus on housing data, which is crucial as it can greatly affect the economy and people's living situations.
  3. Subscribing to this housing tracker gives access to ongoing insights. This can help people stay informed about market changes.

Why you'll hate my investment advice

63 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Personal Finance Economics Market Trends Real Estate
  1. Understanding the basics of an investment can clarify why certain opinions might seem oversimplified or dismissive at times.
  2. It's important to recognize different perspectives in investing, as they can affect how one interprets market issues.
  3. Sharing investment strategies can help others see the reasoning behind specific choices and thought processes.

When we lost our minds: Pt. 5 The Lessons Leamer Learned

105 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Public Policy Housing Monetary Policy
  1. Housing is really important to the economy. It helps predict how the economy will do and often drives changes in it.
  2. The best time to step in and control the housing market is when construction is happening a lot and above normal levels. Waiting too long can cause problems.
  3. In areas like Los Angeles, even though people think there are too many homes, the reality is that many people are affected by rising rents and low construction rates.

National Housing Crisis Task Force

210 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Economic issues
  1. A new group called the National Housing Crisis Task Force is working hard on solutions for the housing crisis. They recently released a detailed report with many helpful policy ideas.
  2. One key suggestion is to review mortgage underwriting rules to help more people buy homes again. This change could lead to the construction of more starter homes for first-time buyers.
  3. The report does not blame corporate investors for rising costs, focusing instead on practical solutions. It emphasizes the importance of safe lending and educating new homeowners.