The hottest Investing Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Repost: Armed conflict investor survival guide

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Don't panic during geopolitical crises. Most of these events don't affect the stock market in the long run, so it's usually better to stay calm and not sell off shares quickly.
  2. Evaluate the situation carefully by asking key questions about the impact on infrastructure, inflation, and interest rates before making any investment decisions.
  3. In many cases, the smart move is to buy risky assets when they dip, especially if there’s no long-term effect on the economy. Short-term panic selling can create good buying opportunities.

Risk of Ruin

Net Interest • 24 implied HN points • 13 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Participants in a study about managing financial risk did not fully exploit their edge in a coin-flipping game.
  2. Proper position sizing is crucial in gambling and financial markets to maximize returns and manage risk effectively.
  3. Understanding and applying formulas like Kelly's criterion can help in making optimal bets and improving performance in investing.

Is Eurozone debt sustainable?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 07 Aug 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Eurozone countries have improved their debt situation since the last crisis, with many nations now reducing their deficits. This change indicates that they are handling their finances better.
  2. Germany is increasing its spending but can manage it, while France's high deficits look concerning. In contrast, the US is facing larger deficits and has become less fiscally responsible over time.
  3. The fiscal rules in the Eurozone help keep debt under control, and countries with higher debts tend to correct their spending more effectively after increasing their deficits.

2022 - A Reflection on 3 Years of Equal

Equal Ventures • 19 implied HN points • 13 Jan 22
💼 Business Investing
  1. Equal Ventures had a significant year in 2021 with early investments reaching success, showcasing potential for more growth ahead.
  2. The journey of investment in ThreeFlow highlights the challenges and risks faced in venture capital, and the importance of strong support networks.
  3. Reflecting on the past three years, Equal Ventures emphasizes gratitude for supporters and aims to continue being a dedicated venture firm with a strong team and innovative approach.

4/4/22 Colin Huang Flashback: Inverting Capitalism AKA C2M

Tech Buzz China Insider • 19 implied HN points • 05 Apr 22
🕹 Technology Investing
  1. Colin Huang discussed the concept of inverting capitalism, suggesting ways for the poor to profit from the rich.
  2. He explored the idea of 'reverse insurance', where the rich pay the poor for certainty of production capital allocation.
  3. Huang's writings challenge traditional capitalist notions and propose alternative mechanisms for wealth distribution.
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Longer, then faster

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. The proposed One Big Beautiful Bill Act could increase the US deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next ten years. This could lead to higher interest rates on government bonds, which makes borrowing more expensive.
  2. With rising debt, long-term Treasury yields are likely to go up significantly. As the debt burden increases, investors in the bond market might react quickly, which can lead to sharp changes in interest rates.
  3. The impact of increasing debt might not be felt right away, but it can snowball quickly. It's important to keep an eye on these trends because economic changes can happen faster than expected.

Angel Investing

Working Theorys • 19 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
💼 Business Investing
  1. Angel investing is about building connections and expanding knowledge in spaces of interest.
  2. A typical angel portfolio includes 15-20 investments with a focus on consumer startups and small check sizes.
  3. Reasons for angel investing include personal interest in founders, market understanding, analytical development, enjoying the process, and potential financial gains.

So You Want to Launch a Hedge Fund?

Net Interest • 32 implied HN points • 14 Apr 23
💼 Business Investing
  1. Launching a hedge fund requires significant seed capital and navigating fee compression.
  2. Running a hedge fund involves challenges like managing business operations and client relations.
  3. Joining a pod shop within a multi-strategy fund can provide advantages in terms of resources and scalability.

Money Supply Growth Continues to Support the Stock Market

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 17 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Money supply growth is crucial for supporting the stock market as it indicates the tightness or looseness of current monetary conditions, regardless of interest rates set by the Fed.
  2. Monitoring money supply trends can provide insight into the direction of the economy and stock market - a rise in money supply can have inflationary effects.
  3. Historical trends show that fluctuations in money supply can influence stock market movements, with drops often preceding market dips.

Eight steps to a better financial future

A Bit Gamey • 6 implied HN points • 26 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Cutting back on spending can help you save money without sacrificing enjoyment. Making small, easy cuts can really add up.
  2. It's important to have an emergency fund for unexpected situations. Protecting yourself financially can give you peace of mind.
  3. Invest in your future by researching and learning about different investment options. The more you know, the better decisions you can make.

Clouded Judgement 11.14.24 - Market Tipping to Growth

Clouded Judgement • 8 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
💼 Business Investing
  1. The software market is shifting back to focus on growth after years of prioritizing profitability. Many companies are now showing better free cash flow, which is a good sign.
  2. Recently, market indicators suggest that investors are less focused on profitability and are starting to reward growth again. Companies that adapt will likely benefit.
  3. With advancements in AI and a more favorable economic outlook, companies are increasing their investments in growth. This could lead to a recovery in revenue growth, which many stakeholders are eager to see.

Preventing the Terminator scenario

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 31 Jul 25
🕹 Technology Investing
  1. AI poses risks that could threaten humanity, so we need to think about how to prevent these dangers. Investing in AI safety is important to protect our future.
  2. Calculations suggest that if AI poses a significant threat, we would need to spend a large percentage of our GDP each year to keep everyone safe. This shows the seriousness of the potential risks.
  3. Currently, society isn't spending enough to address these risks, which indicates a lack of concern for the future. History shows that we often wait until a crisis happens to take action.

Digest 5/29/23

Axial • 29 implied HN points • 29 May 23
💼 Business Investing
  1. Axial invests in early-stage life sciences companies with great ideas
  2. Matchpoint Therapeutics focuses on developing new covalent inhibitors for immunology
  3. Founder Stories feature individuals like Özlem Türeci, highlighting the importance of balancing naivety and questioning in entrepreneurship

Retirement

We're Gonna Get Those Bastards • 8 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Having a plan for retirement is important to avoid boredom. Rather than just watching TV all day, think about activities you enjoy or new hobbies you want to pursue.
  2. Working longer can lead to better financial stability in retirement. Delaying Social Security benefits can significantly increase the amount you receive later on.
  3. To have a fulfilling retirement, it’s crucial to keep engaging with the world. Experiences and social interactions can provide inspiration for creative pursuits like writing.

Why are tech companies more sensitive to interest rates?

Entry Level Investing • 16 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Tech companies, especially high-growth but unprofitable ones, are highly impacted by interest rates during investing.
  2. The value of tech companies is largely based on future projections, making them sensitive to discount rates which determine present value.
  3. In a market with expensive capital, tech companies' future profits are heavily discounted, while in a market with cheap capital, their value can increase significantly.

2023: The Year of The Cash ISA

The Fat Software Engineer • 30 implied HN points • 03 May 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Consider opening a Cash ISA with a good interest rate if you might need the money in less than 5 years.
  2. Research different options and banks to find the best interest rate for a Cash ISA.
  3. Understand that with high inflation, even with a 3.4% interest rate, the buying power of money in a Cash ISA can still decrease.

Trading Catastrophe

Net Interest • 5 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Hurricane Andrew changed how insurers think about risks. They realized they needed better coverage and to assess risk differently.
  2. Catastrophe bonds, or cat bonds, became popular after Hurricane Andrew. They allow investors to earn interest while helping insurers cover major losses.
  3. Today, cat bonds are expanding into retail markets, making them accessible to everyday investors. They have shown good returns, even as disasters become more frequent.

I'm joining Asymmetric to invest in Bitcoin DeFi

The Held Report • 16 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Dan Held is joining Asymmetric to invest in Bitcoin DeFi, focusing on Bitcoin L2s, Dapps, and Ordinals.
  2. Bitcoin's potential in DeFi is massive, with $1 trillion in value that can be unlocked, attracting new users and advancing adoption.
  3. Bitcoin DeFi is seen as the future, with the space expected to evolve and bring significant advancements in the crypto world.

Do you need a global equity forecasting model?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 23 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Most of the time, you don't need a complex global model to forecast stock markets. Just using local data can work well.
  2. The study showed that while international data can help in special cases, local history is often enough for reliable forecasts.
  3. Markets are generally priced efficiently around the world, meaning simpler forecasting models can be just as effective without losing accuracy.

It's 2025 and life is still messy

Klement on Investing • 6 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. The author writes on various topics related to economics and finance throughout the week, with Mondays focusing on ESG and sustainability, and Fridays being more lighthearted and fun.
  2. The posts challenge common theories and emphasize understanding the real world through experimental data rather than traditional economic models.
  3. Life and financial markets are unpredictable, and it's important to embrace curiosity about how things really work instead of relying on rigid theories.

Small, Value, or Small/Value?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 22 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Investors looking to improve their portfolio might want to use a small-cap value fund instead of mixing small-cap and value funds. This approach often leads to better returns despite a bit more risk.
  2. Using one focused fund can help avoid confusion and duplication from multiple investments. It simplifies the investment strategy and is usually more effective.
  3. If you want specific investment factors, it's often best to choose one product that combines those factors, rather than several different ones that might overlap.

The thin edge of the wedge

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 21 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Only a small number of analysts talk about climate change in their reports, with just 1% doing so regularly. This suggests they don’t prioritize these issues much.
  2. Reports that do discuss climate change mostly focus on industries that are directly affected, like utilities and electronics. This means other sectors might be ignoring important climate topics.
  3. Analysts seem less enthusiastic about climate change now due to political pushback, and they may use that as an excuse to not address it in their work.

Investing Update: Lower Returns Ahead?

Spilled Coffee • 8 implied HN points • 19 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. The S&P 500 is hitting more record highs, showing strong momentum in the market. Many stocks are performing well, with the majority above their moving averages.
  2. Despite the positive market trends, expectations for future returns might be lower. It's important to note that past strong performances don't guarantee the same results in the future.
  3. The current earnings season could boost the market even more, but there are concerns about seasonal downturns that usually happen in October, which haven't materialized this year.

This is Flow

Malt Liquidity • 17 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Trading becoming majority-passive may disincentivize real trading based on information asymmetry
  2. Introduction of a BTC spot ETF may not benefit those seeking exposure to Bitcoin for actual trading
  3. Transition of crypto into traditional system through ETFs may contradict the original ethos of crypto being outside regulatory control

What you see is all there is

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 16 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. People tend to focus only on the most obvious information when making decisions. This can lead to ignoring important factors like fund fees.
  2. A recent study showed that changing how fees are presented can significantly influence investment choices. Making fees stand out can lead to people choosing lower-fee funds more often.
  3. Simple changes in how information is displayed can help investors make better choices. This is important for improving their long-term financial success.

Factor anomalies 1900 to 1925

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 15 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Momentum investing worked well even before 1926, showing that it has been a reliable strategy for a long time.
  2. Small-cap stocks performed better than large-cap stocks in some markets, but results varied and were not consistent everywhere.
  3. Low volatility stocks generally outperformed high volatility stocks, but the evidence for this was mixed across different markets.

[PQ] PLTK: Playing Bad (Governance) Odds

Nongaap Investing • 5 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Bad governance can sometimes lead to unexpected investment opportunities. It means that when things look risky or poorly managed, there might be a chance for profit.
  2. Investors need to carefully assess the risks before jumping in. Just because something seems like a good deal doesn't mean it won't come with surprises.
  3. Understanding the company's governance and management style is important. Knowing how they operate can help you make better investment decisions.

[P] HSY: Succession Alternatives

Nongaap Investing • 5 implied HN points • 18 Jan 25
💼 Business Investing
  1. Hershey is considering different options for leadership succession. It's important for companies to have a plan for who will lead them in the future.
  2. The article shares insights on evaluating these succession options at Hershey. Understanding different leadership paths can help the company maintain stability.
  3. Having a clear succession plan can also help reassure investors and employees. It's crucial for the company's ongoing success and growth.

Zombiecalypse in Startupland

East Wind • 9 implied HN points • 30 Jul 24
💼 Business Investing
  1. The SaaS market is struggling, with many companies facing slow growth. This makes it hard for them to go public or find buyers.
  2. There are lots of startups that were once valued highly, but now they can't exit or sell without losing value. This is creating a backlog of troubled companies.
  3. Investors are still showing interest in AI startups, but there’s a risk of repeating past mistakes and ending up with even more struggling businesses that can't deliver for their investors.

The rise of Ponzi ETF

Klement on Investing • 6 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. ETFs have grown from simple investments to complex, niche products. This makes it easier for investors to find ETFs for popular trends, but it can also create unstable market bubbles.
  2. Niche thematic ETFs can cause stock prices to rise due to high demand for a few illiquid stocks. This situation can lead to returns that aren't based on company fundamentals but on the flow of new investor money.
  3. When the market shifts and investor interest fades, these ETFs can collapse quickly. This creates a cycle where falling prices lead to more outflows, similar to a Ponzi scheme.

Issue #137: Klarna’s U.S. IPO Plans, Nubank Hits 100M Users, And PayPal Gets Collaborative

Fintech Radar • 6 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Klarna has filed for an IPO in the U.S., hoping to attract more investors. This comes after difficult years, but they're now showing profitability.
  2. Nubank has grown to over 100 million customers in Brazil, showing how digital banks can successfully compete with traditional ones. They've expanded their services beyond just credit cards.
  3. PayPal has introduced a new feature for group money pooling, making it easier for users to manage shared expenses. This move highlights how big companies can absorb features that startups were trying to create.

Concentration > Diversification

Equal Ventures • 19 implied HN points • 30 Aug 21
💼 Business Investing
  1. In the venture ecosystem, focusing on concentration over diversification can be crucial for survival and success.
  2. Venture firms with disciplined fund sizes and concentrated bets have a track record of achieving massive returns.
  3. Building strong relationships with founders and providing hands-on support can set a venture firm apart in a competitive market.