Spilled Coffee

Spilled Coffee is a Substack focused on providing insights and ideas about business and investing. It covers market trends, investment strategies, economic shifts, personal development, and technology applications for investors and businesses. The content includes analyses of stock market movements, investment opportunities, and reflections on personal and professional growth.

Investing Strategies Market Trends Business Growth Economic Analysis Technology and Productivity Financial Health Personal Development Investment Opportunities

The hottest Substack posts of Spilled Coffee

And their main takeaways

Are Economic Worries Overblown?

36 implied HN points • 05 Mar 25
💰 Finance Economics Investing Market Trends Home Sales Policy Impact
  1. The U.S. stock market is down, with the S&P 500 dropping 6% this year due to economic worries. Many people are feeling uncertain about the economy right now.
  2. Pending home sales in the U.S. have hit an all-time low, even worse than during the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19. This is a significant sign of trouble in the housing market.
  3. There is a lot of volatility in the financial markets due to government changes and spending cuts, creating questions about whether current market conditions are a good buying opportunity.

Investing Update: Hedge Fund Buys & Holdings

36 implied HN points • 01 Mar 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Economic Policy Hedge Funds
  1. The stock market has seen a decline, with major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropping significantly this week. This means investors have lost some of their gains for the year.
  2. Many big-name stocks have dropped more than 20% from their highs, indicating a possible bear market. This trend affects nearly a third of S&P 500 stocks.
  3. Despite recent volatility, it's common after elections, and the overall bull market isn't in danger. Companies are still reporting strong earnings, suggesting a slight pullback is normal.

Investing Update: A Look At My Portfolio

84 implied HN points • 22 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Portfolio Management Market Analysis
  1. The stock market has been having a tough time lately, especially on Fridays, which have seen significant drops. It's important to pay attention to these patterns when investing.
  2. The Magnificent 7 stocks aren’t performing as well this year compared to last year, suggesting a shift in market dynamics. Other sectors might be starting to pick up the pace instead.
  3. The current bull market is still young, but it's showing strong returns. Statistically, bull markets that reach their third year tend to continue for quite a while, which could mean more growth ahead.

Friends & Family

108 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25
🎭️ Culture Family Friendship Memories Life lessons Nostalgia
  1. Spending time with friends and family is what really matters in life. It feels like no time has passed when you see them again, no matter how long it's been.
  2. Cherish the memories you have with loved ones, as they are what you will hold onto in the end. Physical things don't last, but the moments shared do.
  3. Don't wait for special occasions or sad events to reconnect with those you care about. Make the effort to reach out and enjoy the time together while you still can.

5 Years Ago

32 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic History Stock Market Personal Finance
  1. The stock market can bounce back even after big drops like during the COVID-19 pandemic. If you had invested back when the market was at its highest before the crash, you would have seen a big gain over time.
  2. Missing just a few days in the market can really hurt your long-term investment returns. It's important to stay invested, even during uncertain times.
  3. Major world events can cause market crashes, but history shows that the stock market often continues to rise over time. This means it's wise to stick with your investments, no matter what happens.
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My Investing Philosophy

124 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Portfolio Management Personal Finance Retirement planning
  1. Reading investment books helped shape my investing strategy over time. It's important to learn from different sources and experiences.
  2. I consistently invest in an S&P 500 index fund every month. This approach has helped me stay focused on long-term growth without getting caught up in market fluctuations.
  3. Having a high conviction strategy means holding onto a few strong stocks instead of constantly buying and selling. Patience has often led to better investment outcomes for me.

Investing Update: Why Are Investors Scared?

40 implied HN points • 15 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Indicators Stock Analysis Risk Assessment
  1. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently bounced back, showing positive growth for 2025, with the S&P just shy of an all-time high. This is encouraging for investors looking for potential gains.
  2. Despite the positive market performance, more than 40% of stocks aren't above their 200-day average, indicating some underlying struggles. This is something to keep an eye on.
  3. A historical trend suggests that when the S&P 500 is up over 3% by Valentine's Day, it tends to finish the year strong. This year follows that pattern, creating optimism for many investors.

Investing Update: A Rotation Is Underway

68 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Stock Performance Economic Trends Sentiment Analysis
  1. All major stock indexes ended the week down, showing a shift in market sentiment. This can indicate a possible change in the current bull market.
  2. Despite the recent downturn, some key stocks like Nvidia are bouncing back, and the overall market remains strong as the S&P 500 is near its all-time high.
  3. Historically, February is known for being a tough month for stock performance, especially after Valentine’s Day, which could be a concern for investors.

3 Stocks I Have My Eye On

40 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Financial Analysis Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. The author is watching three different stocks, each in a unique situation. One stock is doing very well and hitting all-time highs.
  2. Another stock is currently at a multi-year low, indicating it might be a good buying opportunity.
  3. The third stock is slowly recovering from a significant drop and showing signs of improvement, suggesting it could be turning around.

The Fear Over Tariffs

60 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💰 Finance Trade policy Tariffs Inflation Market Impact Economic Growth
  1. Tariffs can cause prices to rise for consumers, leading to inflation. This means things might get more expensive for everyone.
  2. The ongoing tariffs can create uncertainty in the stock market and economy. Businesses are worried about how these changes could impact their profits.
  3. Monitoring tariffs is important for investors and business owners. They need to stay updated because tariffs affect many products and can cause market fluctuations.

Investing Update: Record Highs Here To Stay?

84 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Sentiment Analysis Economic Indicators
  1. The stock market has reached new all-time highs after a rough start to January, showing strong growth. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow have all seen gains already in the new year.
  2. There is a clear uptrend in the market as more stocks are moving upward, indicating a bull market. Historically, new highs in the market often ensure continued growth.
  3. Investor sentiment shifted from bearish to more positive as the market bounced back. When many investors lean towards negativity, it often leads to a rebound in optimism.

Not Everyday Goes As Planned

80 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
🎭️ Culture Personal Growth Life lessons Resilience Storytelling Mental health
  1. Not every day goes smoothly; sometimes things go wrong unexpectedly. It's normal to feel stressed when life throws challenges your way.
  2. Even tough situations can turn out for the best. What seems like a problem can lead to better outcomes later.
  3. Life is full of twists and turns. When facing obstacles, it's important to find new paths instead of getting discouraged.

Investing Update: Insiders & Hedge Funds Bearish?

48 implied HN points • 01 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Hedge Funds Stock Performance Economic Trends
  1. January showed positive trends for the Dow, indicating a potentially good year for the market. The Dow was up 4.7%, a promising start compared to the other indexes.
  2. Many S&P 500 stocks are reaching new highs, suggesting a strong market performance. This is the highest level since last November, which could be a positive sign.
  3. Investors are shifting money into U.S. equities, with noticeable inflows in financials and consumer cyclical sectors. This trend indicates growing confidence in these areas.

Investing Update: 2024 Recap & 2025 Outlook

112 implied HN points • 04 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Portfolio Management Market Analysis
  1. The S&P 500 had a strong year in 2024, finishing with a gain of 23.3%. It was one of the best years for the stock market since the late 90s.
  2. Many stocks performed well, like Nvidia and Palantir, while others like Boeing and Nike struggled significantly. Investors are keeping a close eye on these ups and downs.
  3. Although not as high as 2023, the actively managed portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 with a return of 49.5%. This shows a consistent trend of good investment decisions.

Concerns Brewing?

72 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Mortgage Stock Market Labor Market Inflation
  1. Currently, housing is facing serious issues with high mortgage rates, making it a tough market for buyers. The demand for mortgages has dropped to its lowest level in over a decade.
  2. Home construction is slowing down, with builder inventories at a high level not seen since the 2008 housing bubble. This can have a big impact on the job market in construction.
  3. Worries are also rising in the stock market and labor market, indicating that many important sectors are feeling pressure right now.

Investing Update: 3 Stocks For 2025

72 implied HN points • 11 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Consumer behavior
  1. The job market is doing well, with a low unemployment rate and strong job growth. This is helping boost the economy.
  2. Interest rates are rising, particularly for 10-year Treasuries, which can affect the stock market negatively. The S&P 500 has seen a drop recently due to these rate increases.
  3. Most stocks aren't doing too well right now, with only a small percentage in an uptrend. Small caps are struggling and have dropped over 10% recently.

Americans Are In Love With Stocks

52 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Financial Literacy Retirement planning Stock Market
  1. The percentage of American households investing in stocks is at an all-time high, showing strong interest in the stock market. Many people now understand how important it is to invest for their future.
  2. Over half of Americans believe stock prices will keep rising. This can be seen as optimistic, but some worry it's a sign that the market may soon turn downward.
  3. Educational efforts around investing have improved, making it easier for people to understand the importance of stocks. This is helping more individuals make informed investment decisions.

Investing Update: Has Sentiment Shifted? 

32 implied HN points • 18 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Indicators Personal Finance Portfolio Management
  1. The stock market had a positive week, with notable gains in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow indexes. This followed a strong inflation report that boosted investor confidence.
  2. Inflation is still a concern, with recent CPI readings showing slight increases. The new presidential administration will face challenges related to managing this inflation.
  3. Hedge funds performed well in 2024, with many beating the S&P 500's strong return. Personal portfolio gains were significantly high, leading to discussions about future investment strategies.

My Portfolio Breakdown

72 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Portfolio Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. The author's portfolio has increased by 52.10% in 2024, showing strong performance. It's great to see a significant growth in investments like this.
  2. For 2024, this might be the sixth time in eight years that the portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500. It indicates a consistent strategy that works well over time.
  3. The author is sharing the current portfolio details exclusively with paid subscribers. It's a way to provide more in-depth insights for those who are more engaged.

Spilled Coffee Year In Review

48 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Financial Analysis Market Updates
  1. The most requested content from subscribers was a comprehensive list of newsletters from the past year, which was compiled into one easy post.
  2. The most read piece of the year focused on the reasons to sell stocks, highlighting that concerns about selling are always present in the market.
  3. The year-end review thanks readers for their support and encourages them to look forward to future updates and insights.

Nvidia Record High Thoughts

32 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Economics Financial Analysis Market Trends
  1. Nvidia has reached a new all-time high, breaking the $150 barrier recently. This indicates the company's strong performance in early 2025.
  2. The writer remains confident in Nvidia's prospects, indicating a long-term positive view on the stock.
  3. The current stock level prompts reflections on whether to buy more, sell, or adjust their position, highlighting the decision-making process for investors.

Investing Update: Is The Rally Fading?

48 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Inflation
  1. The Dow has dropped for seven straight days, which is the longest losing streak since 2020. This downward trend is concerning, especially for December, which is usually a strong month for stocks.
  2. Inflation is still on the rise, moving from 2.60% to 2.75%. Although this is in line with expectations, it indicates that the economy hasn't fully stabilized yet.
  3. Many believe the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25% soon. This move is anticipated as a way to address the ongoing inflation issues and support the market.

Investing Update: A Bull Market Scare?

40 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic outlook Stock Analysis Inflation
  1. The stock market can be very unpredictable, like a roller coaster with ups and downs. It's important to be ready for sudden changes in the market.
  2. Recently, there was a big drop in the S&P 500, which showed that many stocks were losing value. It's a reminder that market conditions can shift quickly.
  3. Despite the rough week, there were also signs of recovery, with some stocks doing better. This shows that after tough times, markets can bounce back.

The Most Misleading Chart

44 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Economic outlook Investment Strategies
  1. A commonly shared chart about U.S. credit card debt is misleading and creates unnecessary panic. It's crucial to look at the bigger picture to understand what this number really means.
  2. Despite rising credit card debt, consumers are still confident and spending money, which is often a good sign for the economy and stock market.
  3. When you see alarming headlines about growing credit card debt, remember that it's important to consider the overall context and how it reflects consumer behavior.

Investing Is Like Riding A Roller Coaster

32 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Risk management Economic Analysis
  1. Investing can be unpredictable, much like a roller coaster ride. You have to be prepared for ups and downs in the market.
  2. Recent years have felt calm for investors, similar to a lazy river ride, but things can change unexpectedly in the future.
  3. No one really knows what will happen in the market next, so it's important to stay cautious and ready for surprises.

Housing Worries Are Building

44 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Mortgage Rates Economic Trends Home Sales
  1. Mortgage rates have jumped to 7%, which is making it hard for people to buy new homes. As a result, new home sales have dropped significantly, the worst drop since 2013.
  2. Building permits for new homes are also falling, which often happens before recessions. This suggests that fewer homes will be built in the near future, putting pressure on the housing market.
  3. There are a lot of new homes waiting to be sold, the highest number since 2009. If this trend continues, it could lead to a drop in home prices.

What's The Bear Case For Stocks?

40 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Market Valuation Economic Indicators
  1. The stock market is doing really well right now, with many people feeling optimistic, but that can lead to risks if everyone thinks only good things will happen.
  2. Valuations for stocks are at historic highs, which means they might be overpriced and could face a correction soon.
  3. The rising cost of the national debt is a big concern that could impact the economy and market stability in the future.

Investing Update: Is This Peak Bullishness?

28 implied HN points • 30 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Market Analysis Financial News
  1. The S&P 500 hit an all-time high this month, with November being the best month of the year so far. This indicates strong market performance overall.
  2. Many individual stocks are also doing great this year, with a majority of them showing positive results. Specifically, financial stocks are leading the way in performance.
  3. December is traditionally a good month for the market, especially in an election year, which encourages bullish investor sentiment.

Investing Update: New Leadership In Tech?

24 implied HN points • 07 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economics Stocks Funds
  1. The S&P 500 is performing really well, hitting new record highs often this year. Investors are likely feeling good about the market's strong performance.
  2. The bull market has lasted for 26 months and has brought a significant return, but it’s still shy of the average return from past bull markets. This makes some investors optimistic about future growth.
  3. There has been a massive influx of money into U.S. stocks recently, showing that many people are eager to invest despite market uncertainties. This could indicate overall confidence in the market.

Portfolio Update

20 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Portfolio Management Economic Trends Personal Finance
  1. The author added to an existing investment in a debated stock. It's important to keep track of ongoing discussions in the market.
  2. This update is specifically for paid subscribers, suggesting exclusive insights for them. It highlights the value of being a paid member.
  3. Stay engaged with financial updates and portfolio changes to make informed decisions. Regular updates can help you understand market movements better.

Inbox Zero

24 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Productivity Work-life balance
  1. Achieving 'inbox zero' means having no emails left to deal with, and many people find this very hard to reach. It's a great feeling once you get there, giving you a sense of accomplishment.
  2. To manage emails better, a simple system can be very effective. You can delete unwanted messages, delegate tasks, handle important ones quickly, or defer them to your to-do list.
  3. Having a consistent email management system helps you avoid chaos. It makes you look more organized and ensures important emails won't be forgotten.

People Have More Money Than Ever

32 implied HN points • 16 Oct 24
💰 Finance Personal Finance Consumer behavior Asset management Economic Trends Investment Strategies
  1. Many people have more money now than ever because wages have been rising faster than inflation for over a year. This means that they can buy more with their earnings.
  2. Homeowners are seeing their property values increase, while those looking to buy are facing more expensive housing costs. This shows the trade-off between rising asset values and affordability.
  3. Overall, both asset prices and wages are at all-time highs, which has led to a significant increase in net worth for Americans across all income levels, especially the bottom 50%.

Portfolio Update

16 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Portfolio Market Analysis Stock Trading Financial News
  1. The author sold shares from a major stock to invest in a favorite stock. This shows a strategy of reallocating assets for potentially better returns.
  2. It's important to regularly update and adjust your investment portfolio based on personal preferences.
  3. The update was shared with paid subscribers, indicating a focus on providing value to a dedicated audience.

Investing Update: Hedge Fund Buys & Holdings

16 implied HN points • 23 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Economic Indicators Portfolio Management
  1. The stock market is doing really well recently, with all major indices up for the week. The S&P 500 is up 25.1% and the Nasdaq is leading with a 26.6% increase this year.
  2. Historically, there's a trend of market rallies during November and towards the end of the year. Many investors are looking forward to a possible Thanksgiving rally and the annual Santa Claus Rally ahead.
  3. Some data shows that less than half of the S&P 500 stocks are trending up, which could indicate some weakness. However, the current low percentage of large-cap stocks down 20% or more suggests investors are still optimistic.

Picking Stocks Is Hard

20 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Portfolio Management Financial Analysis Economic Trends
  1. Picking stocks is really tough because most of the returns come from a tiny number of stocks. It means many investors, even pros, often lose money.
  2. About two-thirds of stocks don't do as well as the overall market. This makes it harder for investment managers to pick winning stocks.
  3. Over 90% of active fund managers struggle to beat their benchmarks over ten years. It shows just how challenging stock picking really is.

Why Are Mortgage Rates Rising?

24 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates Interest Rates Economic Growth Affordability Housing Market
  1. Mortgage rates are influenced by the 10-Year Treasury Yield, which reacts to the economy's growth and inflation expectations. Even though the Fed cut interest rates, mortgage rates have actually gone up because of the rising Treasury Yield.
  2. Currently, the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage rate is at 7.26%, the highest since July, showing a steady rise despite expectations for a decrease. This rise has persisted for four consecutive weeks.
  3. High mortgage rates and low affordability are causing home sales to decline significantly, with September recording the lowest closed sales of existing homes since 2012. Mortgage applications also dropped sharply, indicating a cooling housing market.

Investing Update: Signs Of A Market Top?

16 implied HN points • 16 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Indicators Inflation Stock Analysis
  1. The S&P 500 reached its 51st all-time high this year, showing strong market performance. However, it ended the week lower, with declines seen across major stock indices.
  2. Inflation is stabilizing, with recent data showing it remains under control. Wage gains have also outpaced inflation for the past 18 months, which is good news for consumers.
  3. Post-election market surges are common, and this trend has continued in 2024. Historically, stock markets tend to do well under a unified government, which seems to be the case now.

My Interview With We Study Markets

20 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Personal Finance Financial Education
  1. Holding onto winning stocks for the long run is often the best strategy. Eric learned this after selling Microsoft too early and regrets it.
  2. Investing is about personal choices. Everyone should invest in what makes sense to them, rather than following others blindly.
  3. Celebrating small wins in life can make a big difference. Eric enjoys special breakfasts and dinners to reward himself for his hard work.

Investing Update: Is Mag 7 Leadership Returning?

20 implied HN points • 26 Oct 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Earnings Economics Taxation
  1. The stock market is having a strong run, especially the Nasdaq, which has been up for seven weeks in a row. The Dow and S&P 500 ended their winning streak after six weeks.
  2. Investors seem confident, adding a lot of money to stocks recently, even with the upcoming elections. Earnings from major companies will be more relevant to the market than the election results.
  3. Expect some market ups and downs as the election approaches, but focusing on earnings reports will be more important for making investment decisions.