The hottest Investing Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Investing Update: Don't Forget This Chart

Spilled Coffee • 12 implied HN points • 12 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. The S&P 500 has had a strong performance this year, with 45 new all-time highs and the best start since 2000. This means the market is doing really well right now.
  2. Despite the market's successes, only 54% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 20-day moving average. This is a bit low and worth keeping an eye on.
  3. With recent jobless claims rising more than expected, it could influence the Fed's decisions on interest rates. Many experts still believe there will be a rate cut soon.

Quant Letter: May 2025, Week-4

The Parlour • 4 implied HN points • 30 May 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Using machine learning can help build models to categorize investors based on their behavior. This method faces challenges in being validated and understood.
  2. Research is exploring how to optimize portfolios over a longer time frame. This could help in making better financial decisions.
  3. Synthetic data created by agent-based models can provide valuable insights for testing and understanding trading strategies.

Investing Update: Q4 Top Ideas & Q3 Recap

Spilled Coffee • 12 implied HN points • 05 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. The stock market has been doing really well, with the S&P 500 seeing a strong start this year. It's the best start since 1997, which is exciting for investors.
  2. In the third quarter, the S&P 500 had its best performance since 2020, and many stocks outperformed the index. This shows healthy growth and optimism in the market.
  3. Certain sectors like utilities are doing great, while energy stocks are lagging behind. It's important to pay attention to these trends when investing.

The true information is in the words, not the numbers

Klement on Investing • 4 implied HN points • 29 May 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Analyst recommendations are often seen as unreliable, especially when a 'Hold' is viewed like a 'Sell'. People are starting to see more value in the actual words analysts use rather than just the numbers they give.
  2. AI has been used to analyze over a million analyst reports, revealing that most discussions focus on profitability. However, during tough times, there's less talk about profitability and more on financial stability.
  3. It turns out that the specific language analysts use can help predict changes in earnings and stock prices, showing that understanding their words might be more valuable than just following their price forecasts.
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Clouded Judgement 2.9.24

Clouded Judgement • 23 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💼 Business Investing
  1. Forward estimate changes not aligning with stock price movements.
  2. Startups should carefully track and manage their dilution.
  3. Valuing SaaS businesses based on multiples of projected revenue for the next 12 months.

Clouded Judgement 11.22.24 - Is Software Back?

Clouded Judgement • 10 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. There seems to be a shift happening where software companies are performing better while major tech stocks are lagging. This raises questions about whether this trend will continue.
  2. Recent earnings reports from software companies show strong results, suggesting that their business fundamentals might be improving significantly.
  3. There's a strong possibility that the market is looking for new investment opportunities, especially as some investors take profits from the longstanding success of major tech firms.

Slise.xyz mid-Q2 2023 Investor Updates: Binance Accelerator + Product Live + First Revenue!

Oleksii Sidorov • 36 implied HN points • 05 Jun 23
💼 Business Investing
  1. Slise.xyz had a successful launch of their ad platform with significant user growth and revenue
  2. The company was accepted into the prestigious Binance Labs MVB program and is receiving interest from investors
  3. Key highlights include hiring new team members, attending important events, and focusing on product and analytics improvements

Centessa Pharmaceuticals: Asset-Centric Business Model

Axial • 7 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
💼 Business Investing
  1. Centessa Pharmaceuticals focuses on an asset-centric business model. This means they prioritize specific products and inventions for growth.
  2. Investing early in life sciences companies is key to their strategy. They like to support innovative ideas that are just starting out.
  3. Axial seeks to partner with passionate inventors. They are dedicated to helping those who want to create something lasting and impactful.

Clouded Judgement 1.5.24

Clouded Judgement • 24 implied HN points • 05 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Software stocks have seen a drop in the start of the year due to rising interest rates.
  2. Valuation of SaaS businesses is generally done based on revenue multiples for the next 12 months.
  3. The growth rate of a company plays a significant role in determining its valuation multiple.

Quick Update on Housing

MacroCrunch • 32 implied HN points • 07 Aug 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Most U.S. homeowners have low fixed-rate mortgages and a lot of equity.
  2. There is a structural shortage of housing in the United States.
  3. Despite mortgage interest rates increasing, the housing market outlook remains steady.

Axie Infinity

Thái | Hacker | Kỹ sư tin tặc • 39 implied HN points • 25 Jul 21
🔮 Crypto Investing
  1. Axie Infinity is an online game where characters called Axies are like virtual pets that can be bought and sold as non-fungible tokens (NFTs). The cheapest Axie costs around $200, with the most expensive one ever sold for about $60,000.
  2. Sky Mavis, the game studio behind Axie Infinity, recently received a $7.5 million investment for the NFT-based game. They have a cool and talented young team.
  3. AXS is the coin associated with Axie Infinity, currently priced at over $40 with a market cap of over $2 billion. Sky Mavis will allocate a portion of AXS to gamers and use another portion for staking rewards.

Illumina: Icahn Drops "Helix" Bombshell

Nongaap Investing • 27 implied HN points • 29 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Carl Icahn made a significant allegation involving Helix funding GRAIL in a lawsuit against Illumina.
  2. Icahn is suing to uncover undisclosed motives behind Illumina's GRAIL acquisition, anticipating major board changes.
  3. Understanding the connection between Helix and GRAIL is crucial due to potential undisclosed stakes and the involvement of multiple companies like Biogen.

Is macroeconomics a mature science?

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 03 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Macroeconomics has established theoretical frameworks that guide research and models, but these may not always be the best fit for real-world behavior.
  2. The predictive power of macroeconomic models is limited, making them less useful for investors but potentially helpful in forecasting broad economic trends.
  3. While there is some agreement on methodologies, many practitioners do not keep up with new findings, and integration between different fields is not as strong as it could be.

To hedge or not to hedge, and how to hedge

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 02 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Businesses often face unpredictable costs, like oil prices or exchange rates, which can affect their profits. Hedging these costs can help make profits more stable and predictable.
  2. While hedging can reduce risk, it also comes with complexity and potential costs once the hedge expires. Some companies choose not to hedge at all because of this.
  3. Research shows that simply hedging all exposure might work as well as or better than more complicated strategies, so it’s often best to keep hedging simple.

What is a "Moat" and why does it matter?

Equal Ventures • 19 implied HN points • 28 Feb 22
💼 Business Investing
  1. In the startup world, having 'moats' or durable competitive advantages is crucial for long-term success.
  2. Moats are defined by being proven, perpetuating, and permanent, providing economic leverage and sustainable margin growth.
  3. Investing in building strong moats early on can help businesses sustain value over time and outperform competitors in the long run.

[P] HSY: Applying Governance Molds

Nongaap Investing • 7 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Governance molds help organizations shape their operations effectively. This can lead to better decision-making and overall success.
  2. Investors should consider how governance practices can impact a company's performance. Good governance can mean higher returns.
  3. Applying these governance molds requires careful planning and understanding of a company's needs. It's important to tailor approaches to fit specific situations.

How To Avoid Losing Your Crypto

DeFi Education • 2 HN points • 13 Mar 24
🔮 Crypto Investing
  1. Many people lose their crypto profits because they don't sell at the right time. It's important to have a plan to take profits when you can.
  2. Understanding the risks of different products is crucial. Many losses come from not knowing how things like hacks or hidden risks can affect your investments.
  3. Security is key to keeping your crypto safe. This means having good practices in place, like using hardware wallets and being aware of scams and phishing attempts.

[P] UNH: Itemized Governance Signals

Nongaap Investing • 2 implied HN points • 19 Aug 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Governance disclosures can provide valuable signals about a company's management and decision-making. It's important to pay attention to these signals when investing.
  2. Understanding the fundamentals of non-GAAP measures can help in evaluating a company's performance more accurately than traditional metrics.
  3. Being a paid subscriber offers exclusive insights that can enhance your investment knowledge and strategies. It’s worth considering if you're serious about investing.

[P] NSP: Inspirational or Attainable Goals?

Nongaap Investing • 2 implied HN points • 18 Aug 25
💼 Business Investing
  1. Insperity's decision for special equity awards might have come at a bad time. It's important to understand the timing of financial decisions.
  2. The concept of setting goals can be tricky. Sometimes goals can seem inspiring but may not be very realistic.
  3. Analyzing company actions and their motivations can provide insight into business decisions. It’s good to ask why companies do what they do.

A Bond Unlike Any Other

Malt Liquidity • 8 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. McDonald's has a strong supply chain and offers consistent revenue growth because people love their products. This makes it a safe investment in uncertain times.
  2. Ordering through the McDonald's app can save you money due to inflated menu prices for delivery. Always check the app for discounts before you order.
  3. In an inflationary environment, holding stocks like McDonald's is better than bonds. They have stable, predictable revenues that can help beat inflation.

[P] TENB: Tenable Reasons to Sell

Nongaap Investing • 2 implied HN points • 17 Aug 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Monitor potential mergers and acquisitions in the market for insights on investment opportunities. It's important to stay alert to changes that might affect investments.
  2. Consider specific reasons for selling stocks, as understanding when to exit can protect investments. There are valid factors that could influence this decision.
  3. Paid subscriptions can offer deeper analysis and more tailored insights, which can be beneficial for serious investors. Having access to premium content might give you an edge.

30 Top Angel Investors in Cyber

The Security Industry • 26 implied HN points • 15 Oct 23
💼 Business Investing
  1. Angel investors play a crucial role in startup funding by taking significant risks and often waiting years for returns.
  2. To reduce risk, angel investors make multiple investments in various companies.
  3. Top angel investors in cybersecurity, such as Shlomo Kramer and Ariel Maislos, have impressive track records and investments in key companies.

#165 – Anti-Predictions

Below the Line from Kevin LaBuz • 7 implied HN points • 12 Jan 25
💼 Business Investing
  1. Predicting the future is really hard, so instead of trying to guess what's coming, focus on being adaptable. It's better to prepare for many different possible outcomes rather than relying on one prediction.
  2. Time shows us what ideas and practices last. We should pay more attention to things that have proven their value over time, rather than just what's new or trendy.
  3. Surviving and reducing risks is more important than chasing success. By making sure you avoid big dangers, like too much debt, you can set yourself up for long-term success without the fear of losing everything.

Know Your Enemy

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. The market surge in valuation-agnostic investing will eventually decline, according to Harris Kupperman.
  2. Understanding your opposition when trading means evaluating if they have a unique viewpoint or if they are making irrational decisions.
  3. Identifying opponents who are not basing decisions on valuations can present lucrative opportunities in trading.

[P] TGNA: Deregulatory M&A

Nongaap Investing • 2 implied HN points • 15 Aug 25
💼 Business Investing
  1. Understanding mergers and acquisitions (M&A) can give insights into how companies are governed. Governance signals help us see what businesses might do in the future.
  2. Deregulation can influence M&A activities, making it easier for companies to grow and merge. When regulations are less strict, companies may take more bold steps.
  3. This information is shared with subscribers who want a deeper look into investments. Being a paid member can provide access to detailed analysis and discussions.

The Soft Landing Charade

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 30 implied HN points • 24 Jul 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Being bullish and bearish at different times is normal in investing.
  2. Past events can influence current market sentiments and predictions.
  3. The idea of a 'soft landing' in the market may not be realistic with current economic conditions.

Four minutes

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 19 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Many retail investors focus on just a few stocks, creating a big risk in their portfolios. This makes their investments less diversified and potentially more risky.
  2. Research shows that retail investors often spend very little time figuring out which stocks to buy or sell. On average, they only spend about 20 minutes looking into a stock before making a decision.
  3. The most common research method for these investors is to check short-term price movements rather than doing deep analysis. This can lead to making decisions based on trends instead of solid information.

Buying the Dip

reedmolbak • 2 HN points • 05 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Buying the dip strategy involves waiting for an asset price to drop below a specific threshold before purchasing it, but simulation data shows that this strategy is usually less effective than buying regularly.
  2. When dealing with volatile assets, buying the dip can be beneficial if the asset underperforms in the median case but significantly overperforms occasionally, providing exposure without heavy losses.
  3. For stable assets or normal investors, buying regularly is usually the best strategy as it requires less effort and is generally more effective than trying to time the market by waiting for price dips.

Let me fix those forecasts for you

Klement on Investing • 7 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Forecasts for stock market returns are often inaccurate. For example, analysts expected the S&P 500 to rise by about 8% in 2024, but it actually rose by 23%.
  2. Historical data shows a low correlation between predicted and actual stock market returns. Over the last 20 years, the correlation for analysts' forecasts has been very weak.
  3. Using forecast errors, we can adjust predictions for the next year. For 2025, the S&P 500's return could realistically range from a 29% drop to a 47% increase.

Issue #141: X Partners with Visa, Wise’s LatAm Push, And Australia Tightens BNPL Rules

Fintech Radar • 6 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. X has teamed up with Visa to introduce a digital payment feature in their app. This move aims to make X a more comprehensive service, but it raises concerns about user trust and market competition.
  2. Wise has expanded its services to Mexico, focusing on providing low-cost international payment options. This expansion comes as the demand for remittances in Mexico grows, presenting both challenges and opportunities.
  3. Australia is tightening regulations for Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) services by requiring providers to apply for credit licenses. This change could favor established companies while making it harder for new entrants to join the market.

Tony Robbins’ Favorite Asset Class

Net Interest • 18 implied HN points • 01 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Tony Robbins has invested in over 100 privately held businesses with combined sales over $7 billion, leveraging his brand to immense success.
  2. Robbins emphasized the concept of 'GP stakes', where investors buy minority positions in asset management firms, such as what he did with Blue Owl through CAZ Investments.
  3. The GP stakes business model focuses on buying into asset management firms and can be highly lucrative, providing exposure to various private asset management firms.