The hottest Market expectations Substack posts right now

Despite predictions, inflation is back stronger and on a global scale.
Inflation rates are on the rise worldwide, impacting various sectors like services and transport.
High government spending and financial uncertainties may be driving the persistence of inflation.

The consensus is leaning towards a soft landing in the economy.
Consumer spending remains strong with high savings levels.
There are differing opinions between the Fed and the markets regarding potential rate cuts.

US inflation is decreasing, especially in energy and core goods.
Food prices, especially at-home food items, are cooling down after disruptions in agricultural markets.
Expectations are high for continued disinflation, with markets and businesses predicting slowing inflation rates.

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The U.S. government isn't likely to default soon, but people's trust in its ability to manage debt has been shaken. Once investors start worrying about default, it's hard to restore that confidence.
The market is already reacting to fears of a U.S. default, with increased costs for protection against it. A formal downgrade from agencies may happen soon, but it will likely not come as a shock.
If there is a downgrade, the cost of borrowing for U.S. companies and risk-free rates will likely rise. This could lead to lower stock prices, although some changes in market prices may have already factored in this risk.