Apricitas Economics

Apricitas Economics provides data-driven analysis on trends in economics, finance, and public policy, with a focus on monetary policy, banking crises, inflation, labor market dynamics, and the geopolitical implications of trade disputes. It explores the effects of these elements on the global economy and financial stability, leveraging current data and forecasting to outline economic outlooks and policy impacts.

Inflation and Disinflation Banking Crises and Financial Stability Trade Wars and Semiconductor Industry Economic Outlook and Growth Trends Labor Market Dynamics Real Estate and Housing Market Technological Advancements and AI Monetary Policy and Central Banking Entrepreneurship and Business Formation Geopolitical Economics and Sanctions

The hottest Substack posts of Apricitas Economics

And their main takeaways

Mexico's Investment Boom

63 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
💼 Business Investment Construction Manufacturing Exports Economy
  1. Mexico is experiencing a significant investment boom driven by major public works projects and supply-chain nearshoring.
  2. The construction boom in Mexico, particularly in southern states, has been fueled by massive public works projects like the Tren Maya and Dos Bocas refinery.
  3. Mexico's export manufacturing sector is growing, with a focus on genuine manufacturing growth in industries like computer, appliance, and motor vehicle production.

The US-China Chip War is Escalating

80 implied HN points • 17 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics US-China Relations International Trade
  1. Semiconductor chips are critical to global supply chains and geopolitical tensions, with the US intensifying efforts to boost domestic manufacturing while imposing sanctions on China.
  2. China is significantly increasing imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to fortify its chip industry, even amidst trade disputes and sanctions.
  3. Despite efforts to restrict China's access to advanced chips and equipment, there are challenges faced by the US in fully controlling the semiconductor trade and maintaining successful sanctions.

US Growth Keeps Beating Expectations

53 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economy Investment GDP Consumption Government
  1. The US economy outperformed expectations in 2023, with strong GDP growth of 3.3% in Q4.
  2. Real consumption and income growth have been robust, with investments showing signs of recovery.
  3. Government output and investment, particularly at the state and local levels, have significantly contributed to the economic rebound.

The New Geography of American Growth

66 implied HN points • 04 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economic Growth Remote work Urbanization Job Market
  1. Economic growth in the US post-pandemic has shifted towards states like Florida, Texas, and the American South and Mountain West.
  2. Remote work has driven population influxes to states like Idaho and Arizona, resulting in significant economic booms.
  3. Florida and Texas have seen impressive job growth and have become major contributors to overall US GDP and job gains.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

2023 Economic Year-in-Review

64 implied HN points • 23 Dec 23
💰 Finance Inflation Labor Market Housing Market
  1. Economic growth in 2023 exceeded expectations, with GDP rising and inflation cooling.
  2. Despite a banking crisis early in the year, financial conditions improved as the year progressed.
  3. The year saw a decline in inflation, a slowdown in the 'Great Resignation', and a historic year for American housing markets.

The Economic Fallout of Student Loan Forbearance Ending

50 implied HN points • 04 Dec 23
💰 Finance Debt Consumer spending Economic Impact Policy Changes
  1. Restarting student loan payments has led to higher delinquencies and lower consumer spending, despite some relief measures being in place.
  2. The end of student loan forbearance has caused a noticeable but modest impact on the economy as households resume making payments.
  3. Policy changes and billions in student debt forgiveness have eased the burden on borrowers, resulting in a decrease in total outstanding student loan debt.

America's Energy Export Boom

35 implied HN points • 15 Dec 23
💼 Business Energy Exports Natural Gas Oil
  1. The US has become a major net energy exporter due to record oil and gas production.
  2. The fracking boom in the US has significantly increased natural gas and oil production.
  3. US LNG exports are growing, making the country a key player in the global energy market.

America's Record Wealth Boom

45 implied HN points • 26 Oct 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Wealth Inequality
  1. Middle-class Americans have seen a significant increase in wealth, with real median net worth rising by 37% over the last three years.
  2. The SCF provides detailed insights into wealth distribution, tracking assets from cash balances to investments among diverse groups.
  3. Wealth inequality in the US has slightly decreased during the pandemic, with assets held by the middle class rising faster than average.

The Most Important New Disinflation Indicator

63 implied HN points • 15 Jul 23
💰 Finance Inflation Housing Economic Analysis Monetary Policy Labor Market
  1. The New Tenant Repeat Rent Index provides a more accurate measure of current housing market conditions and predicts future disinflation.
  2. Housing inflation is currently the main driving force behind overall inflation, with non-housing inflation remaining relatively stable.
  3. The 'speed limit' theory of inflation suggests that the growth rate of the labor market, rather than its level, is a key determinant of rent inflation and overall price stability.

The Green Trade Wars

33 implied HN points • 01 Oct 23
💼 Business Green Energy Electric Vehicles Global Economics
  1. Global adoption of solar, batteries, and EVs is rapidly increasing as these technologies become central to decarbonization efforts.
  2. China dominates solar manufacturing, EV production, and battery manufacturing, posing challenges for other nations to compete.
  3. Green trade wars are intensifying as countries aim to control cleantech industries and secure supply chains, leading to geopolitical competition and trade conflicts.

What was the Tech-cession?

48 implied HN points • 06 Aug 23
💼 Business Tech industry Economic Analysis Employment Trends Media influence
  1. Tech layoffs have significantly reduced and share prices of major tech companies have rebounded, indicating a positive shift in the industry
  2. Although tech-sector job growth has slowed, overall employment in the industry remains high compared to pre-pandemic levels
  3. The tech-cession led to a significant decline in compensation which impacted the broader economy, especially in high-tech areas like California

America's Return to Strong Growth

23 implied HN points • 02 Nov 23
  1. The US economy is experiencing strong growth, beating past projections.
  2. Growth in real GDP has bounced back from 2022 lows, returning to levels seen in the high growth years of the 2010s.
  3. Wage growth remains high, indicating above-normal levels of demand-side nominal growth in the economy.

America's Missing Empty Homes

32 implied HN points • 18 Sep 23
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Housing vacancy rates in the US are at historic lows, indicating a very tight market with rising prices.
  2. Housing vacancy rates don't just consider empty units, but also look at what's available for rent or purchase.
  3. The shortage of housing in the US requires substantial new construction to meet the demand and balance the market.

The Fed Sees a Softer, Higher Landing

31 implied HN points • 21 Sep 23
💰 Finance Policy Interest Rates Inflation Economy Monetary Policy
  1. The Fed is projecting a softer landing without the need for a recession to control inflation.
  2. There is less uncertainty in FOMC forecasts, and they anticipate higher GDP growth and slightly higher inflation.
  3. There are disagreements within the FOMC on the duration and extent of keeping interest rates high, with some seeing rates potentially staying permanently higher.

America's Economy Was Bigger Than We Thought

26 implied HN points • 03 Oct 23
💰 Finance Economy Investment Data Analysis
  1. The US economy was actually larger than previously believed due to comprehensive revisions in GDP data.
  2. America's investment boom was stronger than initially reported, with notable upgrades in real fixed investment across sectors like housing and manufacturing.
  3. Revisions to US GDP data included improved methodologies, extensive data integration, and new data series to enhance the accuracy of measuring economic growth.

The Death of Credit Suisse

64 implied HN points • 25 Mar 23
💰 Finance Banking Global Finance Risk management Financial Markets
  1. Credit Suisse faced major financial issues over several years, with losses, leaked data, and fines leading to its demise.
  2. Swiss authorities forced Credit Suisse to merge with UBS to prevent a public collapse and global financial crisis.
  3. The fallout from Credit Suisse's fall includes impacts on European banks, market confidence, and central bank efforts to stabilize the financial system.

The Death of First Republic?

57 implied HN points • 29 Apr 23
💰 Finance Banking Deposits Assets Federal Reserve Financial Institutions
  1. First Republic is facing a financial crisis and potential FDIC takeover due to significant uninsured deposit withdrawals.
  2. The bank's investments in long-duration assets like real estate loans have suffered as interest rates rose.
  3. The broader US banking system remains stressed with decreasing deposits and increased borrowing, impacted by the inverted yield curve and changing depositor dynamics.

The EU's Fragile Recovery

33 implied HN points • 09 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics Europe Economy Ukraine Recovery EU
  1. The EU's economic recovery has been slow and weak, putting it at risk
  2. Major Eurozone economies are struggling to exceed 2019 GDP levels, showing deceleration in economic growth
  3. Rising prices and slow growth in Europe are forcing households to make tough choices by cutting back on essential consumption

A Historic Labor Market Recovery

56 implied HN points • 09 Apr 23
💰 Finance Labor Market Inflation Federal Reserve Employment
  1. American employment rates have fully recovered from the pandemic, showing a rapid and broad-based labor market recovery.
  2. The recovery is broad-based, with almost all industries and age groups showing increased employment rates.
  3. The Federal Reserve faces the challenge of balancing inflation control with maximizing employment for the ongoing historic labor market recovery.

ChatGPT, Please Take My Job!

60 implied HN points • 04 Mar 23
🕹 Technology AI Automation Future of work Economic Impacts AGI
  1. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could lead to a rise in global human employment by creating new and more productive job opportunities.
  2. Humans are not like horses; the economy is driven by human needs and desires, and there is no limit to the value humans can derive from the economy.
  3. In a future with AGI, humans may have a comparative advantage in tasks requiring physical dexterity, social interaction, solving 'last mile' problems, and areas where people are an essential part of the service provided.