Construction Physics • 26515 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
- Over long periods most commodities—especially agricultural products and many minerals—have become cheaper in real terms because production technologies and processes improved and scaled up.
- In the last few decades that trend has weakened or reversed: oil, natural gas, beef, pork, and many crops have tended to rise in price since about 2000.
- Whether a commodity gets cheaper over time depends on how much its production can be automated and expanded (which pushes prices down) versus being limited by depletion, extraction difficulty, cartels, policy, or demand shocks (which push prices up).