The hottest Mortgages Substack posts right now

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Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 04 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. A large wave of foreclosures is unlikely because lending standards are solid and most homeowners have substantial equity, so distressed sales shouldn’t trigger cascading price declines.
  2. Delinquencies and foreclosure activity have increased modestly year‑over‑year (30/60/90‑day delinquencies and foreclosure starts are up), but overall levels remain historically low.
  3. The recent rise is concentrated in certain loan types (notably FHA and resumed VA activity) and REO dollar values have climbed, so expect a modest uptick in foreclosures rather than a systemic crisis.

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 09 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. Mortgage equity withdrawal was slightly positive in Q3, meaning homeowners overall pulled out a little equity but not anywhere near the bubble-era levels.
  2. Mortgage debt rose by $108 billion in Q3 (the same as Q2), though a good share of that borrowing is for buying homes rather than tapping existing equity.
  3. Mortgage debt as a share of GDP is down to about 43.9% from its bubble peak, so most homeowners now have large equity cushions and few are in negative equity, meaning the “home ATM” is mostly closed.

Mortgage Rates: The New Normal

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 11 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. year mortgage rates are about 6.3%, putting them back in a 6–7% range that may be the new normal similar to pre-2008 levels.
  2. Cuts to the Fed Funds rate don’t automatically lower long-term yields — the 10‑year Treasury has risen even as the Fed moved toward cuts.
  3. After more than a decade of unusually low rates, the current rise back to pre‑crisis ranges signals a durable shift in the interest-rate environment.

Challenge Orthodoxy

Who is Robert Malone • 23 implied HN points • 10 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. The subscription-based economy is spreading into almost every industry, creating recurring costs that can stop people from owning things and building equity.
  2. Very long mortgages like 50-year loans push most payments toward interest for decades, so buying can feel like renting and leaves homeowners stuck with long-term liabilities.
  3. Building wealth means reducing dependence on subscriptions and long-term high-interest loans, owning assets outright when possible, paying down debt quickly, and keeping your own backups for important data.

Back of the envelope estimate of mortgage crackdown

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. The number of mortgages has decreased significantly since the housing crisis. This drop is around 15 million more than normal due to stricter lending practices.
  2. Even with the growing adult population, fewer households are being formed, resulting in a shortfall of around 13 million mortgages that would have typically been expected.
  3. Long-term trends show fewer people per household and more unmarried adults, which contribute to the reduced demand for mortgages and homes.
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Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 17 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. Existing home sales likely ran at a 4.10 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in November, unchanged from October and about 1.7% below last November; median single-family prices were roughly 1.9% higher year-over-year.
  2. Current-coupon MBS spreads to Treasuries are very low — near late‑2022 levels — driven by unusually low interest-rate volatility and speculation that GSEs will keep buying MBS.
  3. There is concern GSEs are ramping up debt‑financed MBS purchases at the FHFA’s direction; those purchases may be politically motivated, not profitable given low spreads, and not in the public’s financial interest.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 15 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. Active listings have risen sharply year-over-year, giving buyers more options as inventory nears pre‑pandemic levels even though it remains below 2017–19 norms.
  2. Existing‑home sales are depressed and tracking last year’s lows, which is putting downward pressure on prices, though most owners have enough equity and low rates to prevent a big wave of distressed sales.
  3. New homebuilders are struggling with a growing number of completed and under‑construction unsold homes and are cutting prices to compete, and some key data like housing starts and new home sales are currently unavailable.

December ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in November, Up 0.8% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 08 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. Falling mortgage rates triggered a surge in refinances, lifting servicer refinance retention to a 3.5‑year high and making rate‑and‑term refinances the dominant activity; non‑bank servicers retained far more borrowers than banks.
  2. Mortgage performance strengthened as national delinquencies fell to about 3.34%, well below pre‑pandemic levels, although FHA loans remain an outlier with higher non‑current rates.
  3. Home prices firmed modestly with the ICE Home Price Index up 0.8% year‑over‑year in November, but gains are uneven — the Northeast and Midwest lead, the South and West lag, and single‑family homes are outperforming condos.

Q2 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Decrease

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 05 Aug 25
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. Mortgage originations are mainly going to people with high credit scores now. In the past, many loans were given to people with lower scores during the housing bubble.
  2. Foreclosures are currently low and below the levels before the pandemic. This decrease is a positive sign compared to previous years.
  3. Some states are starting to see more cases of serious late payments, which could lead to an increase in foreclosures there. It's a reminder to watch the housing market closely.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 16 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. Housing inventory has risen sharply toward pre-pandemic levels while existing-home sales remain depressed, which is putting downward pressure on prices.
  2. Lower mortgage rates have boosted purchase mortgage applications, but rising unemployment (around 4.6%) and weak sales mean those applications haven't yet translated into substantially more closings.
  3. Price indexes show only modest year-over-year gains (about 1–2%), with appreciation steadily slowing and reported data lagging earlier market moves.

Inside the Affordability Crisis

Net Interest • 12 implied HN points • 21 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. The US mortgage market has materially shrunk relative to the economy and housing wealth because the big refinancing boom ended once rates rose, removing a huge source of mortgage flow.
  2. New mortgage activity is now driven by purchases, but investors and lenders are very risk averse and credit standards plus regulatory costs have tightened, so many buyers get denied or face pricier loans.
  3. High home prices combined with much higher mortgage rates have made moving and first-time buying unaffordable for many, raising the average buyer age and slowing loan growth for banks and originators.

Follow-Up: Mortgages by Credit Score

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. The average down payment for mortgages has stayed about the same since 1996, showing that lending standards haven’t changed as much as some people think.
  2. Home values and lending practices dramatically shifted between 2007 and 2009, leading to a decline in the quality of new mortgages, which affected the overall housing market.
  3. The decline in home values wasn't just a sudden crisis but a long-term issue influenced by lending practices and market perceptions, resulting in many areas experiencing just steady downturns without previous booms.

Renters and the mortgage crackdown aftermath

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. Renters suffered a lot from stricter mortgage rules after 2008. Many renters ended up paying more due to fewer homes being built.
  2. There is a big difference in rent prices between rental apartments and owned homes. Renters often find they're spending more for less quality compared to homeowners.
  3. To fix these problems, we need either a lot more new rental buildings or easier access to mortgages for families. If not, many will keep struggling in high-priced rental markets.

Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 57 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. Mortgage originations are showing different credit scores now compared to the bubble years from 2003 to 2006. This means people with lower credit scores are getting mortgages now.
  2. Delinquencies on mortgages are increasing, which means more people are having trouble making their payments on time.
  3. Foreclosures are still low, which is good news as it suggests that despite the rising delinquencies, people are not losing their homes at a high rate.

Mortgages Outstanding by Credit Score

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. After 2008, the number of mortgages given to people with lower credit scores dropped significantly compared to those with higher scores. This changed the lending landscape quite a bit.
  2. High real estate prices are affecting mortgage access more than the other way around. Many lower credit score borrowers are struggling to get mortgages, leading to higher rents and home prices.
  3. The tightening of lending rules since 2008 has made it harder for many people to become homeowners, leading to a market where only certain buyers can take advantage of low interest rates and good prices.

Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. We won't see a big increase in foreclosures like before. Most homeowners have good equity and stable mortgages, which helps them avoid financial struggles.
  2. The number of properties owned by lenders remains low, indicating that fewer people are losing their homes. This is a good sign compared to past economic downturns.
  3. Delinquency rates are decreasing, and most homeowners are able to keep up with payments. Even those in trouble can often find solutions to stay in their homes.

NY Fed: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. Mortgage originations are showing different trends based on credit scores compared to the years before the housing bubble. This means people's borrowing habits and qualifications might have changed significantly.
  2. Delinquencies on mortgages are increasing, which suggests that more people might be having trouble making their payments lately.
  3. Foreclosures are still low, meaning that even though some people are struggling to pay, many still manage to keep their homes and avoid losing them.

Why is Debt-to-Income high?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 09 Mar 24
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. The debt-to-income (DTI) ratio for households has generally declined since 2007, focusing more on new mortgage borrowers than all families.
  2. Debt payments have increased for older families since lending standards tightened in 2008, delaying when families take on mortgage debt.
  3. Higher rent inflation due to a lack of construction has pushed up mortgage costs in the early years, contributing to high DTIs.

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. Homeowners are extracting less equity from their homes compared to the past, which is a positive sign for the housing market stability.
  2. Despite a slight rise in negative equity, most homeowners still have significant equity in their homes, which helps buffer against market downturns.
  3. Mortgage debt is rising, but it remains a lower percentage of GDP compared to the peak during the housing bubble, indicating healthier borrowing practices.

Scholarship on the Mortgage Moral Panic

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. Regulatory changes post-Great Recession have made small dollar loans less available, leading to high denial rates
  2. Mortgage standards can create barriers, pushing buyers towards riskier agreements and impacting property prices
  3. Competition from all-cash buyers is high for small dollar homes, affecting mortgage approval rates and market dynamics

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
đź’Ľ Business Mortgages
  1. The current housing market inventory is increasing year-over-year but remains below pre-pandemic levels.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 11.3% year-over-year in February according to the Realtor.com report, showing a positive trend.
  3. Factors like the '3 D’s' (Death, Divorce, Disease), unemployment, and financial considerations affect homeowners' decisions to sell their homes, impacting market dynamics.

Why are homebuilder rate buydowns effective?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 08 Sep 23
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. Market prices aren't changing due to temporary factors, leading builders to use rate buydowns instead.
  2. Builders are using rate buydowns to close the gap between mortgage rates and other interest rates in the current market.
  3. The unique market conditions make rate buydowns a strategic tool for builders, influencing the mortgage market stability.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. Single-family serious delinquency rates for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have increased slightly in December, indicating more homeowners are struggling to keep up with mortgage payments.
  2. Fannie Mae's delinquency rate rose to 0.56% while Freddie Mac's went up to 0.59%, both of which are still lower than pre-pandemic levels.
  3. Older loans from before 2009 show higher serious delinquency, whereas more recent loans are performing better, but there are still some lingering issues from past housing bubble years.

Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. Most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes, which helps prevent a surge in foreclosures that could impact house prices.
  2. The distribution of interest rates on mortgages shows that a large percentage are under 4%, making it easier for homeowners to manage financially.
  3. Understanding key housing terms like forbearance, delinquency, foreclosure, and REO (Real Estate Owned) can help navigate discussions about property ownership.

ICE Mortgage Monitor: "First-Time Homebuyers Make Up Record 47% of GSE Purchase Loans"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. First-time homebuyers constituted a significant portion of GSE purchase loans in 2023, reaching a record 47%, the highest in at least a decade.
  2. Mortgage originations in 2023 hit a 30-year low, with a heavy focus on purchase transactions, while refinance lending showed potential for growth if rates decrease.
  3. In January, mortgage delinquencies dropped to 3.38%, the lowest level since October, indicating a positive trend below pre-pandemic levels.

Quick Update on Housing

MacroCrunch • 32 implied HN points • 07 Aug 23
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. Most U.S. homeowners have low fixed-rate mortgages and a lot of equity.
  2. There is a structural shortage of housing in the United States.
  3. Despite mortgage interest rates increasing, the housing market outlook remains steady.

The Parable of Angelo Mozilo

Net Interest • 22 implied HN points • 21 Jul 23
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. Angelo Mozilo was a key figure in the mortgage industry, starting Countrywide Financial and seeing its rise and fall.
  2. Countrywide's shift towards subprime lending led to risky practices, with Mozilo's ambition for growth overriding concerns about risk.
  3. Despite the financial crisis fallout, Mozilo personally profited from insider trading but faced legal repercussions, highlighting the recurring issue of trading risk for growth in financial services.

Housing affordability around the globe and what really helps

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 05 Mar 24
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. Data shows housing affordability has increased in most countries post the 2008 financial crisis due to low mortgage interest rates.
  2. National averages say the UK isn't as bad in housing affordability as perceived, with countries like Australia and France in a tougher spot.
  3. Analysis suggests government intervention, like offering housing benefits and building new homes, can notably improve housing affordability.

Inflation is here

Rob Leclerc • 0 implied HN points • 13 Mar 21
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. Inflation is a looming crisis, with unseen impacts in traditional measures like CPI, causing economic and social turmoil.
  2. Low mortgage rates are fueling a housing market frenzy, with limited supply driving prices sky-high, putting pressure on buyers and sellers.
  3. Potential consequences include prolonged generational effects, hyperinflation risks, and exacerbation of wealth inequality between different age groups.

The Bailout

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 25 Sep 08
đź’° Finance Mortgages
  1. The $700 billion price tag for the bailout might not be the final cost. If people pay their mortgages, the government could actually make money, but if not, it could be more expensive.
  2. It's important to buy the mortgage-backed securities at fair value. This means paying what they are actually worth, not just their face value, to make sure taxpayers get something in return.
  3. Blaming just the bankers for the crisis isn't fair. Many homeowners also benefitted from the housing boom, and we need a better regulatory system to handle risky assets more effectively.